In post 1323, mastina wrote:{catboi, Datisi, Dannflor, Bell, fireisredsir, Val89, Marashu, Frozen Angel*}
{Charloux, Mixtyx}
(second tier still locktown, just not same certainty--all of them I almost put in the above tier, so the separation between them is very small and nearly nonexistent.)
TOWN:
{SCRRRDBEAR, Cephrir}
{PenguinPower}
TOWN?:
{Shiro, Shiidaji}
???
{KittyTacky}
{Titus}
PROBABLY SCUM:
{Something_Smart}
SCUM:
{Alisae}
{NorwegianboyEE}.
I'm gonna do this a bit differently, instead of town to scum doing strength.
Dann/Datisi/catboi are genuinely never scum here. Ever.
When I say that, I am not exaggerating. I have played it out in my head countless times. I've looked for literally any sign whatsoever.
I've scrutinized every interaction that I've seen from them, and genuinely.
There is zero doubt. No paranoia. None. Not a drop.
I know that I usually exaggerate. I know that I usually am hyperbolic. That when I day a read is 100%, it's not REALLY 100^, I'm just leaving out the small voices of doubt behind the read.
When I say they are 100% town, I mean 100% TOWN. I genuinely don't see the scum. It’s not there. I'm looking for it. But no matter how I slice it. They're just...town.
Next, Alisae and Norwee are both scum.
I genuinely don't see them as town. I've looked. It’s not there. I can't find the townness. All I can see is the scum.
However, I admit it's possible that I just can't see the town in them. I am telling you that they are 100% scum, genuinely no paranoia.
Below that is FA. Removing the shroud of 100%, the actual number is more like 90%, and removing the same shroud, the this-is-town is closer to 85%. I still need to do the research, since it's fully possible she can legit be 100% in her town meta with me 100% certain. But I need to do the research there.
Bell, Marashu, Mistyx are the next step down. Estimate of 75%. They have very very very strong, compelling reasons to be town, it's just that unlike the holy Trinity, I DO have paranoia. I was hiding it before, but it's there. It exists, and is the remaining 25%. Where my reasons could be wrong and the scummier aspects that briefly pinged were right.
But if this were a readslist, I'd still list them as locktown.
Fire might be up with them, but I forget the reason why. I know that part of it is "fire isn’t acting like Cafe him, therefore town", but I had reasons for townlocking him beyond that. If I remember them, will get back to you on him.
Charloux I have no clue where to place tbh.
The next definitive placements are Something Smart and Cephrir. I had one as SLIGHTLY higher than the other while writing this mentally, but I can't remember which was higher right now because they're that close in comparative strength, at about 60% for SS scum, Ceph town.
(Note for percentages: 50% isn’t null, null is 0%. So 60% isn’t "just 10% higher than default", it's 60% higher than default.)
The rest, don't honestly know percentage wise.
Bear, Charlpux, Shiro, and Shiidaji I all loosely think are town, but fucked if I know by how much.
The tl;Dr takeaway tho:
Datisi, catboi, Dannflor all ALWAYS town; NEVER eliminate them.
Genuinely locktown.
Bell, Marashu, Mistyx, probs-FA are all town; NEVER consider eliminating them prior to lylo, and even then think very very hard before doing so, because they're probably town.
Norwee and Alisae ARE scum.
You might not believe it now, but they ARE going to flip scum because they're NOT town.
SS probscum, Ceph probtown, but not infallibly so.
Rest, meh.