Posted: Tue Jun 14, 2016 11:49 am
Mozzarella
Does this not feel icky to anyone else, I am nearly certain that one of them, if not both are town. Okay, so there have always been two camps this game. One has just deathtunneled Ploben the entire game and derp around when talking about all other reads. The other side started with Kloben, ML bait, moved to Ranger who super isn't before having issues with Kuroi who everyone agrees is kinda shitty?In post 1465, mhsmith0 wrote:Yeah panther/ranger/x would def. be a tinfoil scenario. Not impossible but not any kind of immediate priority for me right now.
Where I'm at:
Plob t kuroi t
This would literally be my worst d1 reading ever.
Plob t kuroi w
Ranger a bit more suspicious, Dunn/panther a bit less, but bussing happens so it's not super strong
Plob w kuroi t
Ranger a bit less suspicious, Dunn/panther a bit more, but bussing happens so it's not super strong
Plob w kuroi w
Most likely scenario. And if it's this we're basically set anyway.
A week and a half and still not here, fun times.In post 1210, Florestan wrote:Holy shit its been 6 days how have you not made a case yet.
ⓢⓣⓞⓟ ⓐⓢⓢⓤⓜⓘⓝⓖ ⓟⓔⓞⓟⓛⓔ ⓐⓡⓔ ⓐⓝ ⓐⓛⓘⓖⓝⓜⓔⓝⓣ ⓐⓝⓓ ⓑⓐⓢⓘⓝⓖ ⓔⓥⓔⓡⓨⓣⓗⓘⓝⓖ ⓑⓐⓢⓔⓓ ⓞⓝ ⓣⓗⓐⓣ ⓐⓢⓢⓤⓜⓟⓣⓘⓞⓝIn post 1224, Chip Butty wrote:@Dunnstral: Good question, and I am not sure I can give anything but a surface-level reply atm - possibe buddying, possible distancing, all that. I feel like I will be in a better position to move forward when we see what Ranger has to say. Plus, whatever bad blood there is between Panther and her is obscuring things a bit too. I can see some of the stuff you point to re:Ranger, but it's certainly not a lock at this point. The surface-level reply, btw, is that those who are on her case/ whom she is after would look better, while those who support her, or who she reads as Town, would look worse. But we all know it isn't as simple as that...
You and Panther really do look like you are operating as a team. If you are Town, are you really that sure of him? Why/why not?
ⓢⓣⓞⓟ ⓐⓢⓢⓤⓜⓘⓝⓖ ⓟⓔⓞⓟⓛⓔ ⓐⓡⓔ ⓐⓝ ⓐⓛⓘⓖⓝⓜⓔⓝⓣ ⓐⓝⓓ ⓑⓐⓢⓘⓝⓖ ⓔⓥⓔⓡⓨⓣⓗⓘⓝⓖ ⓑⓐⓢⓔⓓ ⓞⓝ ⓣⓗⓐⓣ ⓐⓢⓢⓤⓜⓟⓣⓘⓞⓝIn post 1225, Chip Butty wrote:I'm not saying prolific posting is AI in itself, precisely because I DO post a lot both as Town and scum. But it did leap out at me that my three top scum picks were the three most prolific posters in this game. I guess it leapt out at me because I'm pretty much ALWAYS the most prolific poster. So, I noted it, and I don't think it is a terrible strategy for scum: The proof of that is that nobody seems to be too excited about this kind of thing. So, if you, Panther, and plobemn ARE scum and trying to dominate the game narrative just by posting heaps, you are pretty much getting away with it atm.
What the fuck, why do you think that people soft being mafia/traitor? Like who the fuck spells out SCUM with capital letters in their posts.In post 1229, Chip Butty wrote:Yes, of course. But prob abfter Ranger does her bit. I just feel I need to see what she has to say if I am going to be able to make sense of this game. It's fairly complex now, as far as interactions go. I haven't seen any clear traitor comms either (unless it was Ranger's ninja stuffIn post 1227, Dunnstral wrote: Can I get a reply that's deeper than surface level later? Remember that there is a mafia traitor in the setup so she flips as a goon sheprobablywouldn't know who the traitor was (I've been looking for traitor signals and hadn't seen any, don't think ones coming)
...
I'm interested in hearing if you think Ranger would be bussed and who it would be in a deeper level reply!) but scum know we are looking for it, so they might be on radio silence now. If they have communicated, it's prob before I posted the tinfoil hat theory.
But don't you think no traitor signals could be a sign of recruitment? Why do you say scum.Ranger prob wouldn't know who the traitor is? It seems to me the opposite is likely. Do you know more than you are letting on?
ⓢⓣⓞⓟ ⓐⓢⓢⓤⓜⓘⓝⓖ ⓟⓔⓞⓟⓛⓔ ⓐⓡⓔ ⓐⓝ ⓐⓛⓘⓖⓝⓜⓔⓝⓣ ⓐⓝⓓ ⓑⓐⓢⓘⓝⓖ ⓔⓥⓔⓡⓨⓣⓗⓘⓝⓖ ⓑⓐⓢⓔⓓ ⓞⓝ ⓣⓗⓐⓣ ⓐⓢⓢⓤⓜⓟⓣⓘⓞⓝIn post 1257, mhsmith0 wrote:In post 1256, Dunnstral wrote:Meanwhile Ranger townleanIn post 1255, BTD6_maker wrote:That seems rather defensive and also suggests self-meta, which can be easily used by scum to hide their scummy actions.It's the sort of "town lean but discrediting" post that makes me think BTD6 plus at least one of Ploten/Panther/Dunn. Given that Ranger is actively voting ploten, BTD6/ploten seems plausible. I mean that's kinda blatant if so (though not as blatant as active chainsaw voting), but wolves are sometimes kinda blatant.In post 1232, BTD6_maker wrote:I call Ranger a weak townread despite disagreeing as I read her as mistaken Town rather than lying scum.
Many other points will come up when I analyse the others. I am preparing the analysis and will post it today.
PS Still working on my larger thoughts, but this one kinda pinged me. And in the event that BTD6 and at least one of Ploten/Panther/Dunn are together, it'd make sense for BTD6 to want to not be on a Ranger wagon but still want Ranger's push discredited. Waiting on other BTD stuff but that's IMO a realistic scenario here.
I didn't get it from what you posted at all.In post 1267, mhsmith0 wrote:Spoiler: Ploben ISO aka fun times with obv!wolf
VOTE: Ploben
His voting record is HORRIFIC. The rest of his ISO sucks too. This is a wolf. There is ZERO reason we should not be lynching him today.
@Ranger: I'm kinda nullish on you, dunn and panther right now. Dunn feels kinda similar to his general town meta (though I probably need to re-read at some point), and you and panther seem like the mutual "screw you" fight that seems likely to be the same alignment (MAYBE theater but likelier town-town). If you have a case on them I'll listen, but I'd rather see your case there first before weighing in in greater detail.
How is that the scummiest thing in this game, because I admit it is there but it doesn't really ping me tbhIn post 1294, mhsmith0 wrote:K cool. I will say that the record of votes and reads is IMO the most indicative thing on the board. And his are BAD.In post 1293, Dunnstral wrote:Besides the voting parts, he's only getting pushed by scummy people who are also pushing me and panther with it (and chip but....)
As for those votes, yeah I think 509 and 999 are scummy or at least look scummy, think 684 is fine because I don't think mafia still push to lynch chip at that point in the game (and of course I'm fine with Ranger votes)
I still need to read your case on Ploben tbh so hold on
Also 684 specifically is bad because it comes on the heels of him basically accusing the entire rest of the board. It reads like "uh, it's these guys! No wait it's these guys! No wait, uh.... It's chip!" In the context of his ISO it doesn't read as righteous at all.
1.ⓢⓣⓞⓟ ⓐⓢⓢⓤⓜⓘⓝⓖ ⓟⓔⓞⓟⓛⓔ ⓐⓡⓔ ⓐⓝ ⓐⓛⓘⓖⓝⓜⓔⓝⓣ ⓐⓝⓓ ⓑⓐⓢⓘⓝⓖ ⓔⓥⓔⓡⓨⓣⓗⓘⓝⓖ ⓑⓐⓢⓔⓓ ⓞⓝ ⓣⓗⓐⓣ ⓐⓢⓢⓤⓜⓟⓣⓘⓞⓝIn post 1299, mhsmith0 wrote:1) I think panther is probably good enough to fake a reasonably townie looking process as a wolf. I don't see the obv!town bit from him, though presuming it's plob/btd as two wolves, there's not much space left for the last one, so in that world he can be pretty likely town by POE. One of the annoying things about being decent to good at wolfing is you don't (or shouldn't) get strong d1 town reads. I mean, I'm fine w giving him a day pass, but im not betting the game on him being town. If you want to remake the case on him being obv!town,cool, I'll listen,but he's not really a day one priority sort for me. Ditto rangers case on you/Panther. I'll listen but unless it's a great case, I'm not much inclined to push d1.
2) why would it be an issue to be null on ranger but push along with her? If I was actively wolf reading her it'd be different, but I don't see the issue w agreeing w someone who's in your null space. Especially early on, my null space is large, and I'm not worried about being on the same wagon as a null or a few nulls. Also, fwiw, I'm pretty sure my reasons are materially different from hers (her read started early, mine is more focused on later stuff).
3) where 684 is an attempt to help himself is (I think) that he's basically expected to be voting someone, but doesn't want to commit to a major wagon. So he just kinda vote dumps. Now that's a guess as to motivation, it could be something else (like flat out OMGUS) but what is NOT a guess is the apparent lack of sincerity to his vote and the reading process he represented. I'm less concerned w understanding exactly why he did it than I am in understanding that it's not a townie thought process.
this is a little much, I've never actually been in a pure town v maf sort of game before. The one game where I thought that was happening was the worst reads I've ever produced. It just doesn't really happen since its awkward and scary for scum to do. If a bloc produces a shitton of MLs in a row, you start lynching that bloc and then scum is in a bad spotIn post 1309, Dunnstral wrote:I think the people on the wagonright nowwould actually be town (except maybe you can still make a case for bussing from ploben)
I don't think the wagon was unnatural, in fact I think the opposite, there's an unnatural pushagainstthis wagon that makes me strongly believe it's town vs maf here
Also I'm townreading the people on the wagon too already so there's that
in the best scenario
its wifomy but this is weak play from scum.
ⓢⓣⓞⓟ ⓐⓢⓢⓤⓜⓘⓝⓖ ⓟⓔⓞⓟⓛⓔ ⓐⓡⓔ ⓐⓝ ⓐⓛⓘⓖⓝⓜⓔⓝⓣ ⓐⓝⓓ ⓑⓐⓢⓘⓝⓖ ⓔⓥⓔⓡⓨⓣⓗⓘⓝⓖ ⓑⓐⓢⓔⓓ ⓞⓝ ⓣⓗⓐⓣ ⓐⓢⓢⓤⓜⓟⓣⓘⓞⓝIn post 1313, mhsmith0 wrote:Now, I will consider it possible that you were simply pocketed by ploben (if he's a wolf, then the entire point was to manufacture a town read through "well a wolf totally wouldn't fake claim IC like that"... Duppins 191 197 and 499 and others are potential examples of this gambit paying off). But the mutual interactions suggest you're likelier to be his teammate.
Didn't you say that you did all of them except the one person who I've been pissed at you for not doing the entire game, and then you doing fucking ploben first.In post 1316, Ranger wrote:So I'm going to be doing the cases starting now. We're at the point where it's "good enough".
I've been thinking about the best way to tackle the cases, and ultimately, the conclusion I reached was the best way to write them would be...manually, page-by-page. That would mean all three cases would be written (and best posted) simultaneously. Given 53 pages worth of content, that would also be too long of a post. So, I made the decision to break it up into sections. I'm anticipating three or four. You'll know the case is finished when I say I'm finished; not a moment before then.
What is your point here? and do I need to copypasta again?In post 1334, mhsmith0 wrote:Basic investigation reveals that btd flipped WAY earlier in that newbie gameIn post 1320, ploben wrote:I will be away for most of the day today but I read up to Ranger starting her case on me.
The only thing I wanted to respond to right away is...I'm really glad mhsmith brought this up because this read of mine is out of no where and he seemed to be the only one to pick up on it. I'm thinking that's probably pretty town as he is paying attention.In post 1267, mhsmith0 wrote:1247 - no clue where that BTD6 as wolf read came from. especially with all the earlier defending. almost like ploben wants to distance himself from that slot or something.
Anyway, it's not going to make me look good, considering my stance on meta. So I'll hide it behind a spoiler tag...
Spoiler: BTD read
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p7957771
It's one thing for ploben to not want to talk about it before the game was over (though it was over 6/8) but btd flipped earlier in the game. And to even if you do buy the "don't let meta infirm the read, even silently, while game is still active" bit, plobens read fm btd came on 6/12. Ploben was still defending btd between 6/8 and 6/12, notably at 1045, and voted a bunch of people other than btd. Btd was also off his 6/9 lynchable list at 785. Again, it's just not a believable reads transition. It reads way more as strategic.
I suppose it's possible ploben pocketed btd earlier and is now trying to frame him with this, but it seems likelier that they're teammates and this was intentional distancing once the gig was up.
In post 1340, mhsmith0 wrote:Cool, but are you actually reading ploben as town? Because this seems more of a playstyle accusation on ranger than a true AI thing. Some people mix in good and bad from an ISO, some people focus on what builds their case. I don't especially think this particular point is meaningful evidence against her.In post 1327, PantherPunt wrote:you're going to have to show where Dunn scumread karnos for dumbtelling...afaict this is fabricated.In post 1318, Ranger wrote:This in 111 is inconsistent as well, given 99: if Chip Butty is town for dumbtelling, why did Dunnstral scumread karnos for dumbtelling?Dunnstral wrote:I wouldn't really expect for him to be "dumbtelling" right out the gate
snipping the rest...
This is the type of pbpa that scum do. Where they take nearly every post by someone and construe it to be scummy. No real evaluation. Just trying to show you via every single post that a person is scum.
Compare it with mhsmith's thing where he calls some posts towny and some scummy and then comes to a conclusion based on the overall body. Ranger is doing the 'every post is scum look!' approach and it's a scum trait (have been both guilty of it myself and have caught scum on it as well)
I mean, I DO think her "it's a Panther/Dunn/plob team" read is undisciplined, both because you usually don't want to try and catch the whole team day one and because that hypothetical team would be playing TERRIBLY (if this is the team, you know I'll needle you pretty badly about this going forward). But I also don't know her well enough to know if this is legit AI on her end or not.
Ps not to be a major asshole about it, but if ploben really is your teammate (and I legit don't know what your alignment is), then you should have just bussed. Unless he's like a PR or something. In which case my condolences for subbing into a spot where you couldn't control the PR choices.
In post 1390, Ranger wrote:Funny you say this about Kuroi, but not me: there's a strong push on me...which has steam behind it.PantherPunt wrote:I think if Kuroi were town that'd be an easy mislynch scum would be all over. willing to jump onto it as soon as I started the hard push upon his entry
yet no steam
And speaking of which, there's a push on ploben...but it hasn't gathered much steam at all.
{ploben, Dunnstral, PantherPunt} have, consistently, throughout the whole game, been applying a double-standard, where in defense of their viewpoints they take one stance, but when attacking they take another. Dunnstral and PantherPunt are the worst offenders, but ploben has his moments too.
It's not.Dunnstral wrote:Man if that's Ranger's case just vote her nowI've covered 13/56 pages. That means I'm less than half-done on my case. I also said, explicitly, I would call my case done when I had finished it, yet...Ranger wrote:The conclusion I reached was the best way to write them would be...manually,page-by-page. That would mean all three cases would be written (and best posted) simultaneously. Given 53 pages worth of content, that would also be too long of a post. So, I made the decision to break it up into sections. I'm anticipatingthree or four. You'll know the case is finished when I say I'm finished; not a moment before then.^This is what I finished the night with. I wanted to go on, sure, but I live in the US. Do timezone calculations on when that post was made, and you'll understand why when I said it got late...Since that was a major change in the game, this marks the end of part two.
Unfortunately, it did get late, soI'll probably have to wait until tomorrow to finish these cases.I mean it got freakin late, and I needed to get sleep. That was, quite literally, theonlyreason I stopped.
Then don't judge it by what it is when it's half-finished. Less than half-finished, actually.Chip Butty wrote:but after all the build-up and delay, I was expecting something a little more...revelatory, I guess.If by this you mean "scum discredit", then yes. If by this you instead meant, "saying it's discrediting is scummy", then no, you couldn't be more wrong. Scum discredit. Town point out scum discrediting. I explained why those posts were discrediting, didn't I? If I didn't, I meant to, but it was obvious enough to me: the motivation is to shut down a town player's input, brushing it off as "wrong" and "worthless". This is what they've done.Broad 'discrediting'-type remarks won't cut the mustard, and even look as scummy as that sort of thing usually does.
In post 1397, mhsmith0 wrote:Conclusion: we're lynching and vigging ONLY inside {ploben, kuroi, BTD6}. If the game is still ongoing at that point, we can discuss further options.
In post 1403, mhsmith0 wrote:I think Rangers reads are at least defensible, unless you think ploben is a solid town (which you don't seem to think any more).
I think the associations w her slot depend on ploben/kuroi flips anyway, so better to flip them first.
Her wolf team of ploben, Panther, you would be a really weird one (I.e. Super blatant working together, just for one mislynch you'd eat the pressure/blame for anyway). I wouldn't 100% die of shock if it was two of you, but all three seems really reachy. IMO guessing at a team there is probably the reachiest thing she's done.
I don't see much obvious evidence of her bullshitting the thread. Stone-walling at times, yes. Self-meta, defensiveness, yes. But active dishonesty I don't really see. I would much rather the players who are actively bullshitting the thread win their reads/votes (I.e. Ploben, kuroi, btd6), and deal with you, Panther, and / or ranger as/if needed after that point.
It's like playing in a turbo with vigs. Hero shots later, likeliest wolves first.
wtf does this mean. Nobody's flipped, unless your maf you have no backing to say this. I'm pretty sure I'm better than you at this game but I never say 'xxx is wrong' without explaining why I think it unless it is super VI shit.In post 1411, Chip Butty wrote:I think I'm beginning to understand how he gets his reads upside downIn post 1383, Dunnstral wrote:That's twice in a row on the wrong account
Persi thing was stupid. Ranger also disagrees on a lot of these reads, why are you so content on sheeping her logic?In post 1413, Chip Butty wrote:Okay, where I'm at ATM:
I still want to lynch plob today. Is there anyone who thinks he is probTown? Anyone who thinks ploc is probScum should vote him so we can move the game forward. Even if you have other scum candidates (Ranger, Kuroi, BTD, whoever), let's lynch plob and decide where to go from there. In particular, I'm not seeing Ranger as a lynch for today, so I want to appeal to the Town on that wagon to come across to plob (provided they think plob is probTown), and let's get this game going again. I agree with whoever said it is stalling. I don't think anything is to be gained by drawing the Day out longer.
mhsmith seems strongly Town to me, he is taking really strong stances, most of which I agree with, and seems to have his priorities right (e.g. plob first, don't worry too much about Panther v Ranger ATM).
I'm still leaning Town for both karnos and Ranger. I guess throughout the game I have been suspicious of those who were first on the karnos wagon and then on the Ranger wagon. I'm also leaning Town for Florestan, but I don't put much stock in his reads. Have some worries about Ranger, but not lynchable for today imo. I think Shadow is Town too.
Dunn, duppin, Panther: I waver a bit on these three, individually. Wouldn't be surprised at all to find one or maybe two scum in there.
Persivul: Pretty sure he is the Mod. So far, most of his posts have been VCs or responses to questions addressed to Mod.
Kuroi: I waver between scum (depending on whether I have a slot available for him) and not very useful Town. Agree he is shootable. Don't want to lynch just yet.
BTD: strong lean scum. Shootable.
gotchu. TownRanger is super obv though and I still have yet to really see it.In post 1438, PantherPunt wrote:There is a townie in Ranger, Kuroi, ploben, BTD6. But if we just lynch through it we win imo
I won't fight against a ploben lynch today it's just not my first choice. The only one in that list that seems to have anyone townreading them is Ranger, hence Ranger is the most dangerous. Just promise me that if I eat this bullet you guys won't let Ranger make it to a MYLO/LYLO scenario. Please for the love of all things holy don't fucking do that to me if I agree to move off this wagon.
This feels so fucking awkward, I don't even think Chip is that likely scum I just hate all of his posts. Why would you not look at Ranger anyways? Why do you not want a BTD lynch? It doesn't make any sense.In post 1440, Chip Butty wrote:Ranger is only dangerous if she is, indeed scum. I think you are totally letting the bad blood between you to cloud your vision,dude. We're just going to have to continue to assess Ranger as we go along, same as anyone else. If we get a ploben lynch, though, it will generate a lot of info because of all the strong interactions he has had with various players.In post 1438, PantherPunt wrote:There is a townie in Ranger, Kuroi, ploben, BTD6. But if we just lynch through it we win imo
I won't fight against a ploben lynch today it's just not my first choice. The only one in that list that seems to have anyone townreading them is Ranger, hence Ranger is the most dangerous. Just promise me that if I eat this bullet you guys won't let Ranger make it to a MYLO/LYLO scenario. Please for the love of all things holy don't fucking do that to me if I agree to move off this wagon.
I'll promise you this, though...vote ploben and I will look very seriously at Ranger's entire game so far.
that was the implication yesIn post 1441, Chip Butty wrote:I'm a bit worried that you say "a townie", as if to imply there is just one. There might be more...In post 1438, PantherPunt wrote:There is a townie in Ranger, Kuroi, ploben, BTD6.
I would rate those four, from Townest to scummest, as
Ranger
Kuroi
BTD
ploben
My best guess atm is the first two are Town, the bottom two scum, and the third scum is in [duppin, Dunn, Panther].
Thank you for correcting someone's reads with your own, really moves things along. Also your PoE are all town.
holy fuck this is towny. All hail your IC.In post 1447, PantherPunt wrote:One of the modifiers is switch goon to bulletproof but I would choose that approximately never compared to everything else bc it assumes a vig rand and that the vig targets that specific goon. It's such a low EV choice I can't imagine someone with half a brain picking it. So the vig talk is probably ok...I got nervous for a second.
