Mafiascum.net

Votecount 2.12

Raya36(4)

~ Tayl0r Swift(56), Nosferatu(28), WaltertheDunce10(36), Looker(23)

RCEnigma(3)

~ Raya36(68), geraintm(40), RCEnigma(51)

Looker(2)

~ Gamma Emerald(46), callforjudgement(91)

Gamma Emerald(1)

~ Frogsterking(88)

Frogsterking(1)

~ ItalianoVD(71)


Not Voting (0):

With 11 alive it takes 6 to eliminate.

Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2020-09-22 17:44:55)

FLAVOR

In post 1455, Tayl0r Swift wrote:

In post 1454, Frogsterking wrote:What do you think is going to happen over the course of the next 48 hours?

maybe youll stop blatantly rolefishing or youll be the one at L-2?

hmmm

In post 1466, Tayl0r Swift wrote:

In post 1462, Frogsterking wrote:

In post 1457, callforjudgement wrote:@Frogsterking: On the subject of "town driven" – which specific players do you think were

driving

the shelly wagon, as opposed to being merely

on

it?

That is a good question, if I recall correctly there was a quick trio of votes very late in the day: myself, Walter and Italiano, I would say that trio "drove" the wagon. I town read Walter and Italiano and am confirmed town to myself of course, so I believe the shelly wagon was town-driven.

Then tayl0r slid on after a short delay I think, then at the last minute geraintm, Nos and RCE voted creating the hammer. I am lightly town reading these slots that were also on-wagon as well, though I wouldn't describe them as "driving" the wagon as much as making sure it went through. I believe this second group was mainly voting on this wagon because they trusted the slots that were already on it more so than the Walter wagon and wanted to ensure a lynch went through.

actually i was the first on the wagon and pushed for other people to join

This is true. And I think wanting the credit of a scumflip is nai imo, but taking her iso/interaction(s) into account and despite my earlier reservations, I’m gonna assume Taylor is towntelling here.

In post 1469, callforjudgement wrote:

• Frogster/Italiano/Walter joined the shelly wagon in quick succession, effectively killing any chance that the geraint wagon would take off.

I was the leading wagon at the time (729). In 789 you, Walter, and Geraintm were tied at two votes. Shelly was at one vote because Frogster had switched to geraintm. Not sure how much momentum there potentially was for geraintm to become the leading wagon.

In post 1469, callforjudgement wrote:@

Italiano

/

Walter

: Did you discuss #820/#821 in your neighbour PT prior to voting? If so, what were you talking about?

No we didn’t discuss anything about the vote; it happened pretty organically. We’ve talked about a lot of stuff in there.

In post 1469, callforjudgement wrote:Walter (who may well have just been following Italiano and made it clear that he'd move back to the geraint counterwagon)

I must have missed it, but where did Walter make it clear that he’d move back to geraintm?

In post 1469, callforjudgement wrote:Meanwhile, Looker just looks bad from all this

How? Why?

In post 1469, callforjudgement wrote:Italiano's recent play has also been much more townish than his play earlier in the game (although he still needs to confirm his night action).

I will reveal my night action confirmation upon twilight. I feel as though I might be the nightkill, so I’ll get all my final thoughts out then. If I knew that I would survive the night then I’d just wait until Day 3 to reveal both night revelations and possibly clinch the game (along with the other potential town prs) through PoE, but I claimed pr and while the tfnn can’t directly hurt the scum team ultimately they need it gone.

In post 1469, callforjudgement wrote:The above analysis got me thinking about Looker again, and I'd rather be voting for a slot that hasn't done much townish and has been flying under the radar (even if it hasn't done much that's particularly scummy), rather than a slot I'm conflicted about. VOTE: Looker

Do you town or scumread Gamma?

In post 1470, Frogsterking wrote:

In post 1432, ItalianoVD wrote:

In post 1405, Raya36 wrote:

In post 1366, ItalianoVD wrote:@Raya: Your responses to my questions seem very townie looking at face value. I can’t know if this is your meta or not. Why do you feel it was okay to sacrifice shelly?

I feel like from my perspective I usually come across quite townie when I actually try as town. I wish I could give this game that effort right now. As scum I tend to be pretty obvious, I come across as unnatural and it's easy to see through my plans. Of course scum always feel like their scummy so maybe I'm not as bad at scum as I think?

Without knowing how you actually play as both alignments it’s hard to know what you mean by “obvious” and “unnatural”. What differences are there or can be seen when you are “trying as town” as opposed to not trying?

In post 1405, Raya36 wrote:I don't remember saying I was okay with sacrificing Shelly but there was a lot of suspicion on that slot so even if I read it as town I'd have been fine with the elimination. I did consistently read her as scummy-appearing town. It's still interesting how easy that elimination went through when there wasn't much of a push.

It may go against the grain, but I like this response. I was asking Raya this question as if she was scum sacrificing her scumbuddy and she answered it oblivious to the reasoning behind the question. If you are faking this response Raya, then kudos to you.

In post 1408, Frogsterking wrote:Yes Raya and Italiano are both motivated by fear of being incorrect.

Italiano is more specific in that his fear is in being incorrect about his scum reads, which is causing him to double take his reads continuously. Raya also appears to fear being incorrect about her scum read on Walter, with the opposite reaction of doubling down under pressure.

Raya, the issue I have with your slot is that you're not only absent from the game, you also appear significantly guarded in your thoughts and feelings. Being busy explains the absence but not necessarily the guardedness.

I think appearing guarded in this lobby is quite a feat, because I don't think this is the most trusting group of people in the world.

Fear of being incorrect is not it at all. I could be wrong, but that doesn’t motivate my actions. The evidence of the shelly wagon and the interactions everyone had with that slot is pretty telling. Shelly is a confirmed flip so I want to use that information as the foundation for where I go. I don’t want to speculate, because I don’t have to.

Your solve is less accurate now than it was at the beginning of D2 fmpov. If the cause was not emotional then I'd guess you made a logical error during your analysis of the shelly flip.

How so?

In post 1437, Nosferatu wrote:

In post 1435, Looker wrote:Is Nosferatu still here?

a little bored but still here

Does Raya's elimination taking this long further imply that she's scum to you?

In post 1438, Raya36 wrote:

Spoiler:

In post 1435, Looker wrote:

In post 1420, Raya36 wrote:

In post 1327, Looker wrote:

In post 1307, Raya36 wrote: Those were two different situations though. I didn't think what Walter was pushing at the time was PR fishing and his pushed were weak. This is a completely difference instant.

I'm getting things confused. Which post numbers were for which instances?

So this is what Walter was pushing as PR fishing: 397. It was just a joke, not PR pushing at all. And I think it was scummy of Walter to push it as PR fishing.
This is RCE's fakeclaim that I'm scumreading: 192.

• Where was Walter pushing this?
  
• Post 192 is a Gamma Emerald post, not a fakeclaim from RCE

Oops 912

Looks like we both got confused. This was the fake claim he pushes. It was clearly fake and a joke because Nos just asked for someone to fake a guilty since they were bored. Then Walter quickly backs off when some of us disagree.
574

For Walter: 589, 599, 623

Just making sure. Yeah, I agree with Walter. RCE's move was suspicious, defense of it was suspicious. Also, Nos asking for it was in D1 whereas RCE fakeclaimed in D2 after a scumflip - the game being "boring" realistically no longer applied. Plus, I believe Walter more because he was on shellyc's wagon and you weren't.

In post 1449, geraintm wrote:

In post 1448, Tayl0r Swift wrote:

In post 1442, Frogsterking wrote:Also I feel like it's getting close to time for Raya to claim.

you arent even on the wagon and it isnt at L-1....

I said something similar a few days ago. I didn't say claim, I just said that the day seems to be drifting towards their lynch and they should probably try and alter the course if they didn't want to get killed.

Don't think you hassled me over my post though :/

Is it Frogster fishing or do you think he actually intends to hammer

In post 1459, Raya36 wrote:

In post 1454, Frogsterking wrote:What do you think is going to happen over the course of the next 48 hours?

I might get put at L-1 with intent. I might not. I'm not claiming before that happens

Who are the off-wagon scumpartners giving you this confidence?

• CFJ's accusing me of vanity wagoning during shelly's lynch while vanity wagoning during Raya's lynch. He also ignores Gamma, who was also voting geraintm. 1469 is just a half-hearted self-reflection.
  
• Votecount 2.12 made me cry out loudly with a guffaw

[/list]

In post 1478, ItalianoVD wrote:

In post 1466, Tayl0r Swift wrote:

In post 1462, Frogsterking wrote:

In post 1457, callforjudgement wrote:@Frogsterking: On the subject of "town driven" – which specific players do you think were

driving

the shelly wagon, as opposed to being merely

on

it?

That is a good question, if I recall correctly there was a quick trio of votes very late in the day: myself, Walter and Italiano, I would say that trio "drove" the wagon. I town read Walter and Italiano and am confirmed town to myself of course, so I believe the shelly wagon was town-driven.

Then tayl0r slid on after a short delay I think, then at the last minute geraintm, Nos and RCE voted creating the hammer. I am lightly town reading these slots that were also on-wagon as well, though I wouldn't describe them as "driving" the wagon as much as making sure it went through. I believe this second group was mainly voting on this wagon because they trusted the slots that were already on it more so than the Walter wagon and wanted to ensure a lynch went through.

actually i was the first on the wagon and pushed for other people to join

This is true. And I think wanting the credit of a scumflip is nai imo, but taking her iso/interaction(s) into account and despite my earlier reservations, I’m gonna assume Taylor is towntelling here.

In post 1469, callforjudgement wrote:

• Frogster/Italiano/Walter joined the shelly wagon in quick succession, effectively killing any chance that the geraint wagon would take off.

I was the leading wagon at the time (729). In 789 you, Walter, and Geraintm were tied at two votes. Shelly was at one vote because Frogster had switched to geraintm. Not sure how much momentum there potentially was for geraintm to become the leading wagon.

In post 1469, callforjudgement wrote:@

Italiano

/

Walter

: Did you discuss #820/#821 in your neighbour PT prior to voting? If so, what were you talking about?

No we didn’t discuss anything about the vote; it happened pretty organically. We’ve talked about a lot of stuff in there.

In post 1469, callforjudgement wrote:Walter (who may well have just been following Italiano and made it clear that he'd move back to the geraint counterwagon)

I must have missed it, but where did Walter make it clear that he’d move back to geraintm?

In post 1469, callforjudgement wrote:Meanwhile, Looker just looks bad from all this

How? Why?

In post 1469, callforjudgement wrote:Italiano's recent play has also been much more townish than his play earlier in the game (although he still needs to confirm his night action).

I will reveal my night action confirmation upon twilight. I feel as though I might be the nightkill, so I’ll get all my final thoughts out then. If I knew that I would survive the night then I’d just wait until Day 3 to reveal both night revelations and possibly clinch the game (along with the other potential town prs) through PoE, but I claimed pr and while the tfnn can’t directly hurt the scum team ultimately they need it gone.

In post 1469, callforjudgement wrote:The above analysis got me thinking about Looker again, and I'd rather be voting for a slot that hasn't done much townish and has been flying under the radar (even if it hasn't done much that's particularly scummy), rather than a slot I'm conflicted about. VOTE: Looker

Do you town or scumread Gamma?

In post 1470, Frogsterking wrote:

In post 1432, ItalianoVD wrote:

In post 1405, Raya36 wrote:

In post 1366, ItalianoVD wrote:@Raya: Your responses to my questions seem very townie looking at face value. I can’t know if this is your meta or not. Why do you feel it was okay to sacrifice shelly?

I feel like from my perspective I usually come across quite townie when I actually try as town. I wish I could give this game that effort right now. As scum I tend to be pretty obvious, I come across as unnatural and it's easy to see through my plans. Of course scum always feel like their scummy so maybe I'm not as bad at scum as I think?

Without knowing how you actually play as both alignments it’s hard to know what you mean by “obvious” and “unnatural”. What differences are there or can be seen when you are “trying as town” as opposed to not trying?

In post 1405, Raya36 wrote:I don't remember saying I was okay with sacrificing Shelly but there was a lot of suspicion on that slot so even if I read it as town I'd have been fine with the elimination. I did consistently read her as scummy-appearing town. It's still interesting how easy that elimination went through when there wasn't much of a push.

It may go against the grain, but I like this response. I was asking Raya this question as if she was scum sacrificing her scumbuddy and she answered it oblivious to the reasoning behind the question. If you are faking this response Raya, then kudos to you.

In post 1408, Frogsterking wrote:Yes Raya and Italiano are both motivated by fear of being incorrect.

Italiano is more specific in that his fear is in being incorrect about his scum reads, which is causing him to double take his reads continuously. Raya also appears to fear being incorrect about her scum read on Walter, with the opposite reaction of doubling down under pressure.

Raya, the issue I have with your slot is that you're not only absent from the game, you also appear significantly guarded in your thoughts and feelings. Being busy explains the absence but not necessarily the guardedness.

I think appearing guarded in this lobby is quite a feat, because I don't think this is the most trusting group of people in the world.

Fear of being incorrect is not it at all. I could be wrong, but that doesn’t motivate my actions. The evidence of the shelly wagon and the interactions everyone had with that slot is pretty telling. Shelly is a confirmed flip so I want to use that information as the foundation for where I go. I don’t want to speculate, because I don’t have to.

Your solve is less accurate now than it was at the beginning of D2 fmpov. If the cause was not emotional then I'd guess you made a logical error during your analysis of the shelly flip.

How so?

Because fmpov I know you're vote is incorrect and you weren't voting me before your analysis, so if the change wasn't an emotionally charged one I'm assuming it's a logical error.

I didn't notice anything wrong with your logic in general while reading through your posts the first time aside from that I disagreed with your initial assumption (the shelly lynch was a buss/scum driven) so that could be one. I can't remember any statistics I read on the likelihood of a D1 bus.

A second possible point of error could be assuming my lack of interactions with banana/shelly is an associative scum tell. I believe this might be speculative about my scum play, and if not, I don't know how likely a lack of interactions with a vote target holds up as a scum tell, especially on D1 w/ 13 players, or as an indicator a bus is happening, where I imagine it might be less likely.

And a third possible point of error is that I do believe you're speculating about my scum play at least a little bit (that I like to bus) because you suspected me of bussing for a nearly-opposite associative tell on D1. It's been a long time since I rolled scum in any medium of the game so I don't really know how my gameplay would change, in general though I would discourage bussing, I don't think it usually does anything, and I preferred to be the one being bussed because I enjoyed open-wolfing.

In post 1479, Looker wrote:

In post 1437, Nosferatu wrote:

In post 1435, Looker wrote:Is Nosferatu still here?

a little bored but still here

Does Raya's elimination taking this long further imply that she's scum to you?

In post 1438, Raya36 wrote:

Spoiler:

In post 1435, Looker wrote:

In post 1420, Raya36 wrote:

In post 1327, Looker wrote:

In post 1307, Raya36 wrote: Those were two different situations though. I didn't think what Walter was pushing at the time was PR fishing and his pushed were weak. This is a completely difference instant.

I'm getting things confused. Which post numbers were for which instances?

So this is what Walter was pushing as PR fishing: 397. It was just a joke, not PR pushing at all. And I think it was scummy of Walter to push it as PR fishing.
This is RCE's fakeclaim that I'm scumreading: 192.

• Where was Walter pushing this?
  
• Post 192 is a Gamma Emerald post, not a fakeclaim from RCE

Oops 912

Looks like we both got confused. This was the fake claim he pushes. It was clearly fake and a joke because Nos just asked for someone to fake a guilty since they were bored. Then Walter quickly backs off when some of us disagree.
574

For Walter: 589, 599, 623

Just making sure. Yeah, I agree with Walter. RCE's move was suspicious, defense of it was suspicious. Also, Nos asking for it was in D1 whereas RCE fakeclaimed in D2 after a scumflip - the game being "boring" realistically no longer applied. Plus, I believe Walter more because he was on shellyc's wagon and you weren't.

In post 1449, geraintm wrote:

In post 1448, Tayl0r Swift wrote:

In post 1442, Frogsterking wrote:Also I feel like it's getting close to time for Raya to claim.

you arent even on the wagon and it isnt at L-1....

I said something similar a few days ago. I didn't say claim, I just said that the day seems to be drifting towards their lynch and they should probably try and alter the course if they didn't want to get killed.

Don't think you hassled me over my post though :/

Is it Frogster fishing or do you think he actually intends to hammer

In post 1459, Raya36 wrote:

In post 1454, Frogsterking wrote:What do you think is going to happen over the course of the next 48 hours?

I might get put at L-1 with intent. I might not. I'm not claiming before that happens

Who are the off-wagon scumpartners giving you this confidence?

---

• CFJ's accusing me of vanity wagoning during shelly's lynch while vanity wagoning during Raya's lynch. He also ignores Gamma, who was also voting geraintm. 1469 is just a half-hearted self-reflection.
  
• Votecount 2.12 made me cry out loudly with a guffaw

[/list]

The fake claim that Walter pushed was 574 and was not_mafia not RCE...

What makes you so confident that I'm scum

In post 1455, Tayl0r Swift wrote:

In post 1454, Frogsterking wrote:What do you think is going to happen over the course of the next 48 hours?

maybe youll stop blatantly rolefishing or youll be the one at L-2?

yep, it is a bad look for frogster.
they have the appearance of someone who has their vote placed no where useful, but want to be on a lynch but can't work out an easy way to get there. and then list 3 different places (raya, gamma and CFJ) where they are already starting to think about going.

will saythat raya is acting either very cool or very disinterested about their status as leading wagon

In post 1464, Frogsterking wrote:VOTE: Gamma I'm going to go ahead and adjust my vote here but I will move it back to CFJ in a heartbeat. I believe CFJ is open wolfing, Gamma is coasting. Raya is my third choice for likely scum flip but still light years away from these two.

oh look, frogster moves their vote...to someone with no other votes?

CFJ post 1469 - man, another long analysis. it ends up with looker, but I am too dim to follow how it got there...

In post 1478, ItalianoVD wrote:I will reveal my night action confirmation upon twilight.

please don't do this. you cannot be sure there will be a long enough twilight for you to be awake or post or anything. people have been asking all day for you to come clean and now saying you are going to wait until a time that might not exist is just... what happens if you miss your opportunity and we end up in Day 3 with you still being able to wait on your claim?

In post 1479, Looker wrote:

In post 1449, geraintm wrote:

In post 1448, Tayl0r Swift wrote:

In post 1442, Frogsterking wrote:Also I feel like it's getting close to time for Raya to claim.

you arent even on the wagon and it isnt at L-1....

I said something similar a few days ago. I didn't say claim, I just said that the day seems to be drifting towards their lynch and they should probably try and alter the course if they didn't want to get killed.

Don't think you hassled me over my post though :/

Is it Frogster fishing or do you think he actually intends to hammer

oh, I am 99% sure they have no intention to hammer and want a claim.

In post 1482, geraintm wrote: will saythat raya is acting either very cool or very disinterested about their status as leading wagon

I can't find any real reason to defend myself from outside of not being super active and I already explained that. I don't want to be eliminated, I'm town and from my POV my elimination is a guaranteed miselimination. But besides RCE (who doesnt seem to be happening) I don't know who I want to vote for. Although I'd be willing to compromise to frog if anyone wants to since I don't like his positioning lately. Walter is an option too but I don't think anybody would be going for that today.

In post 1478, ItalianoVD wrote:

In post 1469, callforjudgement wrote:

• Frogster/Italiano/Walter joined the shelly wagon in quick succession, effectively killing any chance that the geraint wagon would take off.

I was the leading wagon at the time (729). In 789 you, Walter, and Geraintm were tied at two votes. Shelly was at one vote because Frogster had switched to geraintm. Not sure how much momentum there potentially was for geraintm to become the leading wagon.

During or a little before the shift onto shelly at the end of Day 1, geraintm was listed as a scum read, scumtelling, or a reasonable compromise wagon by:

• Frogster (#781, again in #808, again in #816)
  
• Gamma (#797)
  
• Walter (#800, again in #810)
  
• Raya (#805)
  
• me (#813)
  
• Looker (#825, after the geraintm wagon had mostly collapsed)

[/list]
I was expecting more people in this list, but that was partly because Frogster was so insistent on geraint as a viable option. On the other hand, Frogster was insistent on preferring shelly, so the geraint wagon may have been doomed by voter overlap with the shelly wagon.

In post 1469, callforjudgement wrote:Walter (who may well have just been following Italiano and made it clear that he'd move back to the geraint counterwagon)

I must have missed it, but where did Walter make it clear that he’d move back to geraintm?

#810 seems clear enough.

In post 1469, callforjudgement wrote:Meanwhile, Looker just looks bad from all this

How? Why?

I was thinking of #825, which given the timing looks very much like it's trying to save shelly by trying to divert the players unwilling to eliminate Walter onto geraint instead. While looking up the post number for this, I noticed #802, which given shelly's flip is bad individually and makes #825 look even worse; this was before the big move over to shelly, and the vote count looked like #789 (except that Walter was on N_M), so it was effectively a request for Tayl0r to vote somewhere other than shelly. I can imagine a townie doing this purely because Tayl0r was the only player on a wagon alone, but there's obvious scum motivation behind it given the shelly flip, and a player who is interesting in consolidating wagons wouldn't be likely to subsequently go over to a two-player geraint wagon rather than the Walter or shelly wagon.

In post 1469, callforjudgement wrote:Italiano's recent play has also been much more townish than his play earlier in the game (although he still needs to confirm his night action).

I will reveal my night action confirmation upon twilight. I feel as though I might be the nightkill, so I’ll get all my final thoughts out then. If I knew that I would survive the night then I’d just wait until Day 3 to reveal both night revelations and possibly clinch the game (along with the other potential town prs) through PoE, but I claimed pr and while the tfnn can’t directly hurt the scum team ultimately they need it gone.

This gives insufficient time for your target to confirm you (especially if they're scum; they can just be offline / pretend to be offline until the mod locks the thread; but even a townie might be offline). This greatly raises the chance for scum shenanigans N2.

In post 1469, callforjudgement wrote:The above analysis got me thinking about Looker again, and I'd rather be voting for a slot that hasn't done much townish and has been flying under the radar (even if it hasn't done much that's particularly scummy), rather than a slot I'm conflicted about. VOTE: Looker

Do you town or scumread Gamma?

Townread (previously stated in #1274, and not much relevant has happened with the Gamma slot since). Gamma appears to townread the top wagons, and after being pressed, made a reasonable case in Looker (over multiple posts, the events in question span the range from around #1018 to #1053).

Interesting contradction in Frogster's ISO that I noticed while writing my previous post:

In post 1055, Frogsterking wrote:Gamma starting to town tell now in recent posts leaves me with a solid scum read on the CFJ slot.

In post 1367, Frogsterking wrote:After being provoked by Looker, CFJ responds that the Gamma wagon did indeed produce good content, but for an unstated reason is unlikely to produce more, hence the vote switch.

This seems odd to me, because I'm not seeing where CFJ applied pressure to Gamma, or where Gamma produced such content, it just looked like an empty distancing vote to me.

(For context, "Gamma wagon" starts at #1019, and was pretty much over by #1060 when it became clear that Frogster preferred me over gamma today, meaning that there was no more pressure coming from the Frogster slot; Gamma hadn't posted since #1053.)

So in other words, Frogster picked up towntells from Gamma while I was voting for him. He subsequently claims that my vote must have been distancing rather than genuine, on the basis that I'd claimed to have picked up good content from Gamma while I was voting for him. And the reason that the Gamma wagon was unlikely to produce more content was that Frogster killed it! (#1060, #1062).

(I think the reason for this contradiction is the same as the reason for the other failures of logic I've pointed out from Frogster: that Frogster has decided to scumread me, initially as PoE, then deciding that pretty much everything he reads is compatible with me as scum and is interpreting everything in that light, getting confirmation bias, and ignoring his own prior reads and the context as a consequence.)

You don't think that contradiction could just come from scum?

It could, on its own. I don't think the sort of cases that Frogster has been making on me more generally could come from scum, though; I find it hard to see a player inserting logical fallacies into their posts, and reasoning as bad as #1359 (I analyse this in #1364) is far more likely to come from someone who incorrectly assumes that I'm scum and makes incorrect assumptions about objective facts in order to make their read fit, than someone who knows I'm town and is trying to push me anyway. If you're scum pushing a townie for made-up reasons, it's rare to pick reasons which are easily and trivially shown to be faulty reasoning by anyone; you simply don't make that post, and look for a more reasonable argument to push.

That's true and a good point. Maybe I'm reading his current stance wrong.

UNVOTE: Frog

Looking at the wagons there's me, RCE, Looker, Gamma, Frog. I'm town, I have no strong opinions on Gamma, I agree with what cfj just said about Frog likely being town. I'm moving back to RCE. I could maybe do Looker. I think he has a higher chance of being town than scum but I'm not convinced either way.
VOTE: RCE

could i ask people to give me the benefit of the doubt on raya here? im not an investigative with a guilty on raya or anything, but i do have a very strong gutread. this doesnt feel like town!raya after reading over a few games. this doesnt feel like town!raya based on raya's own description. a few people are trying to get counterwagons going. none of the people i scumread are voting raya.

In post 1486, callforjudgement wrote:Interesting contradction in Frogster's ISO that I noticed while writing my previous post:

In post 1055, Frogsterking wrote:Gamma starting to town tell now in recent posts leaves me with a solid scum read on the CFJ slot.

In post 1367, Frogsterking wrote:After being provoked by Looker, CFJ responds that the Gamma wagon did indeed produce good content, but for an unstated reason is unlikely to produce more, hence the vote switch.

This seems odd to me, because I'm not seeing where CFJ applied pressure to Gamma, or where Gamma produced such content, it just looked like an empty distancing vote to me.

(For context, "Gamma wagon" starts at #1019, and was pretty much over by #1060 when it became clear that Frogster preferred me over gamma today, meaning that there was no more pressure coming from the Frogster slot; Gamma hadn't posted since #1053.)

So in other words, Frogster picked up towntells from Gamma while I was voting for him. He subsequently claims that my vote must have been distancing rather than genuine, on the basis that I'd claimed to have picked up good content from Gamma while I was voting for him. And the reason that the Gamma wagon was unlikely to produce more content was that Frogster killed it! (#1060, #1062).

(I think the reason for this contradiction is the same as the reason for the other failures of logic I've pointed out from Frogster: that Frogster has decided to scumread me, initially as PoE, then deciding that pretty much everything he reads is compatible with me as scum and is interpreting everything in that light, getting confirmation bias, and ignoring his own prior reads and the context as a consequence.)

That's not a contradiction. He made some bad looking posts, then some posts I liked, then bad posts again, and overall I read the slot as scum.

If anyone is curious what CFJ is doing right now I have a link that describes it:
https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums/th ... tichora%29

In summary, you spam up the thread to mess with the town information flow and shade as many townies as possible, without much regard to getting scum read by the other players, in fact often you plan to finish it with a bus. This is how I believe CFJ has been approaching the game.

In post 1490, Tayl0r Swift wrote:could i ask people to give me the benefit of the doubt on raya here? im not an investigative with a guilty on raya or anything, but i do have a very strong gutread. this doesnt feel like town!raya after reading over a few games. this doesnt feel like town!raya based on raya's own description. a few people are trying to get counterwagons going. none of the people i scumread are voting raya.

If your read is that strong, I'm willing to sheep it, even though I don't have a scumread on Raya myself (especially as my current scumreads aren't all that strong).

VOTE: Raya

In post 1491, Frogsterking wrote:That's not a contradiction. He made some bad looking posts, then some posts I liked, then bad posts again, and overall I read the slot as scum.

The contradiction is "I'm not seeing […] where Gamma produced such content", versus you explicitly stating at the time that Gamma was producing such content. Or in other words, you're assuming that you saw something townish from Gamma's posts, but that I couldn't possibly have seen something townish from the same posts.

In post 1490, Tayl0r Swift wrote:could i ask people to give me the benefit of the doubt on raya here? im not an investigative with a guilty on raya or anything, but i do have a very strong gutread. this doesnt feel like town!raya after reading over a few games. this doesnt feel like town!raya based on raya's own description. a few people are trying to get counterwagons going. none of the people i scumread are voting raya.

I will vote her once it's clear a wagon on Gamma or CFJ will be impossible.

In post 1495, callforjudgement wrote:

In post 1491, Frogsterking wrote:That's not a contradiction. He made some bad looking posts, then some posts I liked, then bad posts again, and overall I read the slot as scum.

The contradiction is "I'm not seeing […] where Gamma produced such content", versus you explicitly stating at the time that Gamma was producing such content. Or in other words, you're assuming that you saw something townish from Gamma's posts, but that I couldn't possibly have seen something townish from the same posts.

Who cares?

In post 1482, geraintm wrote:

In post 1455, Tayl0r Swift wrote:

In post 1454, Frogsterking wrote:What do you think is going to happen over the course of the next 48 hours?

maybe youll stop blatantly rolefishing or youll be the one at L-2?

yep, it is a bad look for frogster.
they have the appearance of someone who has their vote placed no where useful, but want to be on a lynch but can't work out an easy way to get there. and then list 3 different places (raya, gamma and CFJ) where they are already starting to think about going.

will saythat raya is acting either very cool or very disinterested about their status as leading wagon

In post 1464, Frogsterking wrote:VOTE: Gamma I'm going to go ahead and adjust my vote here but I will move it back to CFJ in a heartbeat. I believe CFJ is open wolfing, Gamma is coasting. Raya is my third choice for likely scum flip but still light years away from these two.

oh look, frogster moves their vote...to someone with no other votes?

CFJ post 1469 - man, another long analysis. it ends up with looker, but I am too dim to follow how it got there...

In post 1478, ItalianoVD wrote:I will reveal my night action confirmation upon twilight.

please don't do this. you cannot be sure there will be a long enough twilight for you to be awake or post or anything. people have been asking all day for you to come clean and now saying you are going to wait until a time that might not exist is just... what happens if you miss your opportunity and we end up in Day 3 with you still being able to wait on your claim?

In post 1479, Looker wrote:

In post 1449, geraintm wrote:

In post 1448, Tayl0r Swift wrote:

In post 1442, Frogsterking wrote:Also I feel like it's getting close to time for Raya to claim.

you arent even on the wagon and it isnt at L-1....

I said something similar a few days ago. I didn't say claim, I just said that the day seems to be drifting towards their lynch and they should probably try and alter the course if they didn't want to get killed.

Don't think you hassled me over my post though :/

Is it Frogster fishing or do you think he actually intends to hammer

oh, I am 99% sure they have no intention to hammer and want a claim.

You're wrong, Looker was correct.

In post 1494, Frogsterking wrote:VOTE: CFJ

why are you on another vanity wagon now?