Mafiascum.net

In post 1473, Noraa wrote:

In post 1471, Mundivore wrote:I mean, Nikahang just voted for shelly over and over and never did anything else that game. It's possible for scum to do that, but it would be weird. I'd expect scum to do something more like Sirius did—lead with a vote on a scummate if it was a wagon, then hop to the freshest wagon. Sirius likes wagons so far, and in my experience that's a scum trait.

But my voting for you is not OMGUS. I've been sus of you since Day 1 lmao. I'm mostly voting just to see what happens, there are a couple of different reactions I'm interested in seeing.

Also, just gotta say, if I was scum:

1) I walk in and shelly has just made that crazy play. Why would I have pressured a kill on Plus so aggressively? It was probably completely unnecessary to get the kill (considering plus himself was angling for it) and ultimately got a lot more attention put on me. It's also debatable that it's

even better

for scum if I don't pressure you into making the kill and let you go the day without the kill happening. It puts the game into the same game-state (ultimately town still has wasted an elim, so scum still gets another night) except that now scum has more control over the outcome. Scum has more flexible options if there's no kill: they can NK plus to create the same game-state, we're currently in, or gamble on the set of possible night-actions to hope for a scenario where nobody receives Plus' night action to try to get shelly to live for another day

2) Frankly, the fact that the people who were NK'd were all people who FoS'd me at some point is NAI. I've seen scum try to use their NK's to frame people more often than I've seen them try to use them to eliminate critics. Think about it: the way scum wins is by getting them to waste their elims. There is no other victory condition for scum, that's just how the numbers play out. Every time town kills a townie, scum gets one more night. Every time town skips a vote and every other time after that, scum gets another night. Scum need three false elims to win in total.

Defensive NKs point a bunch of arrows towards you. It might reduce some day suspicion, but if someone notices, there's a decent chance the town tries to kill you. It puts you in the spotlight even if you successfully defend yourself in the daythread, and might force you to try to fakeclaim to stay alive, which often leads to a 50/50 which is quite bad for scum. Meanwhile, framing someone else with your NK's puts

them

in the spotlight, taking pressure off of you. It's especially effective if you don't draw attention to it, and see if someone else connects the dots to the person you're framing, although you can pull it out yourself to get the final miselim too. Basically, as scum, you don't want to be feeding townies lines that give them better odds of catching scum than elim'ing purely randomly, and playing often leads to that.

3) Let's say I am scum, and I am using my NK defensively. I'd rather kill 72 than Frogster: 72 also announced suspicion of me, and while Frogster FoS'd me Day 2, I seem to recall that he liked me Day 1. Not sure on that. Either way, 72 seems to have more of a proclivity towards tunneling on scum targets, and I was his sole scumread at that point. His initial suspicion of shelly was long and aggressive, and after the counterclaim nonsense he continued to think that Plus was scum. I think it's pretty clear that 72 and shelly can't have been scummates, so I definitely would have killed him night 2 if I hadn't on night 1.

I actually still think that the Sirius/shelly scumteam is a bit more plausible than the Noraa/shelly scumteam. I'm mostly just trying to get discussion rolling, and people tend to start replying when you vote for them. To that end,

VOTE: Sirius9121

What do you think about all this, huh?

This whole thing was low-key confusing to me. I have a hard time understanding where I fall into all this. I should prolly read it again and try to understand but dude nah right after this calc hw, I'm not feeling it. Can u like make it more obvious where I come into all this?

In post 1475, Mundivore wrote:Actually, I'm happy with my vote where it was. VOTE: Noraa.

I think there's a good chance town has just won. Let me explain:

I'm the Tracker. Night 1, I followed Sirius. No action—unless shelly did both actions Night 1, which risks being totally shut down by a potential Jailer, then Sirius is town. Night 2, I followed Redados. No action, so Redados is conftown. By play, 72 is very likely town.

Scenario 1: Nobody counterclaims me. This makes me conftown. We kill Noraa. If that's somehow not right... well, we'll see. It's probably 72 in this case, I think it's more likely that 72 couldn't reign in a teammate than that scum would risk getting both their kill and their rolecop read eaten by a potential Jailer. However, I'm pretty sure it's Noraa at this point—I misremembered, and thought that my Night 1 action was on 72, not Sirius, hence my not getting to this sooner.

Scenario 2: I get counterclaimed. It's 50/50 between me and the person who counterclaims. We have room for one miselim, so we just kill both and Town wins 100% of the time.

I admit that this has a failure condition, but with three FoS's on me already, I think claiming now isn't too aggressive anyways. Worst case scenario still involves dodging me getting miselim'd—the only way town should kill me after this claim is if scum counter-claims.

In post 1472, Mundivore wrote:

In post 1470, Redados wrote: Acknowledged and my apologies.

No hard feelings.

In post 1470, Redados wrote:

In post 1469, Noraa wrote:Then again Echo also had the purest townie energy ... ever so that might be the reason behind that maybe?

IMO Echo was limmed because he was basically conftown and he wasn't going to get mislimmed. I don't think we're really going to get info out of that.

Honestly, I feel like I really don't understand why Echo was so confirmed town? I feel like I missed something, could you give me a run down for future reference?

In post 1477, Noraa wrote:Dude ur likely scum. Pr wouldn't ever out day 2

In post 1475, Mundivore wrote:Actually, I'm happy with my vote where it was. VOTE: Noraa.

I think there's a good chance town has just won. Let me explain:

I'm the Tracker. Night 1, I followed Sirius. No action—unless shelly did both actions Night 1, which risks being totally shut down by a potential Jailer, then Sirius is town. Night 2, I followed Redados. No action, so Redados is conftown. By play, 72 is very likely town.

Scenario 1: Nobody counterclaims me. This makes me conftown. We kill Noraa. If that's somehow not right... well, we'll see. It's probably 72 in this case, I think it's more likely that 72 couldn't reign in a teammate than that scum would risk getting both their kill and their rolecop read eaten by a potential Jailer. However, I'm pretty sure it's Noraa at this point—I misremembered, and thought that my Night 1 action was on 72, not Sirius, hence my not getting to this sooner.

Scenario 2: I get counterclaimed. It's 50/50 between me and the person who counterclaims. We have room for one miselim, so we just kill both and Town wins 100% of the time.

I admit that this has a failure condition, but with three FoS's on me already, I think claiming now isn't too aggressive anyways. Worst case scenario still involves dodging me getting miselim'd—the only way town should kill me after this claim is if scum counter-claims.

In post 1481, Redados wrote:

In post 1477, Noraa wrote:Dude ur likely scum. Pr wouldn't ever out day 2

VOTE: Noraa
It's Day Three.

In post 1480, Redados wrote:

In post 1472, Mundivore wrote:

In post 1470, Redados wrote: Acknowledged and my apologies.

No hard feelings.

In post 1470, Redados wrote:

In post 1469, Noraa wrote:Then again Echo also had the purest townie energy ... ever so that might be the reason behind that maybe?

IMO Echo was limmed because he was basically conftown and he wasn't going to get mislimmed. I don't think we're really going to get info out of that.

Honestly, I feel like I really don't understand why Echo was so confirmed town? I feel like I missed something, could you give me a run down for future reference?

He posted with no filter and I didn't feel like he was hiding anything. A bunch of people were also openly townreading him, which is a NK death sentence for a townie imo

In post 1475, Mundivore wrote:Actually, I'm happy with my vote where it was. VOTE: Noraa.

I think there's a good chance town has just won. Let me explain:

I'm the Tracker. Night 1, I followed Sirius. No action—unless shelly did both actions Night 1, which risks being totally shut down by a potential Jailer, then Sirius is town. Night 2, I followed Redados. No action, so Redados is conftown. By play, 72 is very likely town.

Scenario 1: Nobody counterclaims me. This makes me conftown. We kill Noraa. If that's somehow not right... well, we'll see. It's probably 72 in this case, I think it's more likely that 72 couldn't reign in a teammate than that scum would risk getting both their kill and their rolecop read eaten by a potential Jailer. However, I'm pretty sure it's Noraa at this point—I misremembered, and thought that my Night 1 action was on 72, not Sirius, hence my not getting to this sooner.

Scenario 2: I get counterclaimed. It's 50/50 between me and the person who counterclaims. We have room for one miselim, so we just kill both and Town wins 100% of the time.

I admit that this has a failure condition, but with three FoS's on me already, I think claiming now isn't too aggressive anyways. Worst case scenario still involves dodging me getting miselim'd—the only way town should kill me after this claim is if scum counter-claims.

In post 1486, Redados wrote:NORAA IS AT E-1 FYI

In post 1485, Redados wrote:Noraa why would you jump to the conclusion that Mundivore is scum after he outs when you can wait for a counterclaim? That was super sketch to just go "ur scum".

In post 1487, Noraa wrote:I really am not sure what to say rn cuz I feel like it doesn't matter what I say, if people believe mundivore, they will eliminate me today. I mean yes I'm not that helpful, don't have the greatest reads, and prolly won't be able to live to the end of this game anyways. But town will be wasting a lim and tmrw the stakes will be even higher than today.

In post 1491, Redados wrote:

In post 1487, Noraa wrote:I really am not sure what to say rn cuz I feel like it doesn't matter what I say, if people believe mundivore, they will eliminate me today. I mean yes I'm not that helpful, don't have the greatest reads, and prolly won't be able to live to the end of this game anyways. But town will be wasting a lim and tmrw the stakes will be even higher than today.

Are you going to counterclaim?

In post 1490, Noraa wrote:

In post 1485, Redados wrote:Noraa why would you jump to the conclusion that Mundivore is scum after he outs when you can wait for a counterclaim? That was super sketch to just go "ur scum".

bc I feel like at a time like this, our pr would think more carefully. Ig its just cuz when you are the one getting limmed and you know very clearly that u r town aligned, it just sucks and u feel a wee bit ig backstabbed?

In post 1493, Redados wrote:

In post 1490, Noraa wrote:

In post 1485, Redados wrote:Noraa why would you jump to the conclusion that Mundivore is scum after he outs when you can wait for a counterclaim? That was super sketch to just go "ur scum".

bc I feel like at a time like this, our pr would think more carefully. Ig its just cuz when you are the one getting limmed and you know very clearly that u r town aligned, it just sucks and u feel a wee bit ig backstabbed?

do you understand the logic? What Mundivore is saying is that assuming 72 is town then we win the game. Because of that, it's worth it for him to claim because he believes 72 to be town.

In post 1496, Noraa wrote:Ok so we have Redados, Sirius, 72, Mundivore, and me.
Y'all kill me today. Someone else is nk'ed
the next day
you have Redados, Sirius, 72, and Mundivore excluding the nk'ed one
the next day
you kill sirius. someone else is nk'ed.
and then ur left with scum and one vt

In post 1498, Noraa wrote:Cuz sirius and i arent scum. I am 99% sure this is true