Newbie 1875 | D4

[Irrelephant11]

mmm I don't think it's that telling. I think his incoming case on you might be. Are you thinking he's scum for it?

Do you still think stun deserves your vote?

[teacher]

@Elephant - ... I want to write an overly long and detailed case and the theory behind it, so Im going to leave it for tomorrow.

pumped for this, let's get things rolling!

RL is kicking my butt. It'll be up, but probably around 10 or 11 NY time.

[Irrelephant11]

Wow where is everyone come on we all signed up to play mafia let’s play!

[Irrelephant11]

Plat why did you assume I thought teacher was scum?

[Xander]

UNVOTE: espeonage

I already said what i thought. I don't have a read for elphant because he because he just joined. I'm not sure what I am supposed to do at this point. I suppose I should vote for platfleece? But ... what else?

[xRECKONERx]

wingedcatgirl has requested replacement.

[teacher]

Mod

: Given the sheer number of replacements and prods, can we get an extension?

[teacher]

EBWOP

Mod: Given the sheer number of replacements and prods, can we get an extension?

[xRECKONERx]

Nexus replaces wingedcatgirl.

[xRECKONERx]

EBWOP

Mod: Given the sheer number of replacements and prods, can we get an extension?

Absolutely! Extending deadline by 5 days

[xRECKONERx]

Deadline for D1 is (expired on 2018-07-06 00:00:00).

[Nexus]

Hi.

[Espeonage]

O shit waddup.

[Espeonage]

Ok this is screwed, plat had a mature response to my vote which bleeds town.

So eh.

I still don't get the invis reads part her talking like town meta. Which I kinda still hate as reasoning.

[Espeonage]

unvote

[Nexus]

vote plat

Invisibility is town. Espe is making me feel icky as well.

[teacher]

So I promised a case on Plat. Intermixed is some theory. Before getting into either though, I will offer two caveats. First, and most importantly, I have learned one thing in my fiveish games on site – my reads stink. Im too used to playing RL mafia with ppl I know. Im too credulous for forum mafia, at least so far. Elephant can speak more to this, since he just cakewalked a game as scum where I tried to build a voting block around him….

Second, for both reads and theory, this is my two cents and YMMV. Some of the theory is statistically proven, some is generally accepted, and I will try to call those points out. As for reads, I generally use other people’s reads NOT to change my own, but to amplify my confidence– If I town someone, and four other slots town them, Im pretty darn sure they are town. If I town someone, and four other slots scum them, I still town them but am more open to being wrong.

Now, with that out of the way, I will start the case on Plat. Everybody has already discussed the issues with 24, including Plat. I wont belabor that any more other than to say its part of my case.

Instead, Ill talk some theory about D1: It is incredibly hard to lynch scum. Not only is any slot very likely (6/8, 75%) to be town, but scum are also quite unlikely to remain on each other when it comes true lynching time (they may vote each other early for distance, but bussing – scum lynching scum for the town credibility gain – is more of a D2+ thing). So, to lynch scum D1, town needs to convince 5/7, or 71%, to all land in the same place.

This is why I found Plat’s repeated questioning of my vote (58, 72, 76, 90, 106, 107, 146, 149) scummy. Saying the same thing THIS many times is like posting a no trespassing sign – a warning to the NEXT person to vote Plat that they will be scumread for doing so (or OMGUS-in-advance). Moreover, the claim in 106 isn’t all that credible. I have never seen anybody get lynched quick D1 in a newb game, and it certainly wasn’t going to happen in that dead thread. In contrast, the implicit threat posed by this defensiveness could have been quite effective at killing a wagon, especially in a dead game with newbs who may be more afraid of being lynched than the average town.

• Its effectiveness is increased by Elephant questioning and voting Esp for providing that third vote in 126. To me, ESP’s vote does not seem disingenuous at all – he was the one that originally scummed Plat, and it came too spread out in time from mine to be a momentum wagon. But I nonetheless indented this because it’s a weaker, third-party associational point made preflips.

Start finding them Mafiosos.

This post, believe it or not, is part of my scumread. Its weak as Smirnoff Ice, but this sentence and word choice struck me as forced and LAMISTy. To be very clear, this is a very very minor part of my case. I actually included it primarily for the gameplay point for newbs: When making a case, do not include crap like this even if moves you. In general, unlike this wall, you don’t want to include every last point because that makes it too easy for scum to take your weakest two points, refute them, and avoid the noose. But there we are.

Plat’s questions to Invis and me are the major element of my read. The unnecessary LAMISTy asides (not just 43, but also in – just as examples – 34 and58[/post) are another. The third and final point is the attempt to build a Daskter-slot wagon in [post]90, when the same reasoning really could have applied to four other slots (perhaps especially Pickle). Seemed like forced and fake hunting by a slot with perhaps TMI about the other lurkers.

With all of that out of the way, I will end as I started – The odds say Im wrong, and that Plat is town. Indeed, even independent of the odds, I am not that confident in my read. I would say its like Rand+5 scum (an expression that means I think the odds Plat is scum is like 5% greater than the odds that anybody else on this board is scum). I just don’t have another very strong scumread at this point, and wanted to show a long (too too long) case and some of this theory for the newbs.

[teacher]

Also what do you think, teacher?

Im happy enough with ESP being a second wagon. I think you are very likely correct that Plat-ESP is not the scum team, for the reasons you say later in 143-144. I think Plat may be scum for the reasons above. But assuming town!plat, I could easily see ESP scum. Here, it has little to do with her play in this game (other than being the third vote on the Plat wagon, which is statistically the slot most likely to be scum on a town-lynch wagon, and we are assuming town!Plat). It is more her meta -- looking at how she has played being an IC in completed newby games, its a lot more helpful than here, with links to strategy articles in the WIKI and discussion of WHY posts "bleed town" rather than just saying they do.

[teacher]

The reason I'm asking you and not Winged

You'll notice I didn't really bat an eye at Winged voting me

I'm still waiting for Winged's explanation on voting me though,

Well, you went from not asking Winged to asking them pretty quick……… Turns out every time you have been voted (winged, me, ESP) the vote has been questioned (Invis, you, Elephant). Regardless, turning to your actual question to me:

What about the other wagon hoppers? What are your thoughts on them?

This again seems to more of your OMGUS-in-advance defense, especially since there had been only one more wagon-hopper (ESP), whom I had already implied I did not find suspect for voting you in post 133. To be clear, I share your read of ESP’s vote as consistent with how they had played, and buy the explanation.

[teacher]

multiple players think he is town for [wanting to help newbies]

This is not the reason behind the townreads of my slot, and I think you know that.

The helpfulness is accurate (look at the username), though Im not sure how helpful it is. It is also NAI, as I would do the same as scum.

But what the townreads were actually for was trying to drive discussion and get town active out of RVS. TBH, your suggesting otherwise seems like kind-of angle-shooty shade.

[teacher]

The Killers

I cant tell you how many all-nighters Ive pulled with "are we human" on loop.

[teacher]

But ... what else?

So my recommendation is to get active in whatever way feels natural to you. Mafia is a game about information asymmetry. Activity, especially over the course of days, reduces that asymmetry.

Looking at your ISO, youve expressed thoughts about Plat, me, and Stunned, while asking questions to Invis and me, and saying you dont have a read of Elephant.

Based on that, if I were in your shoes, Id ask Elephant about something I had pretty defined thoughts about. (this is actually why I asked Elephant about the ESP opportunistic vote post; I disagreed with it pretty strongly, so wanted to see if he could support his position with credible logic that felt genuine, or whether it was a chainsaw defense).

But you do you. Figure out what slots (e.g., Nexus) you have little information on, and then try to get it by the way that will best help you.

[teacher]

UNVOTE: espeonage

Ummmm.....You werent voting Espeonage. And you've never mentioned them otherwise in your ISO. What did you mean to do here, and what do you think of their slot?

[teacher]

Finally, just for fun after my caffeine high of posts last night, the two newb games that started after us (by 3 and 7 days) each have roughly double our number of posts.......

[teacher]

Deadline for D1 is (expired on 2018-07-06 00:00:00).

Just to avoid confusion, can you edit 4 too? Also, for future ISO purposes, can I request 0 show the slot history (e.g., Elephant

pickle

; Stun

Daskter

RatedX

). Not a big deal, but I find it helpful. Thanks!