Mini 2091: The Purge - Game Over!

[Persivul]

@Mod:

Can No Lynch win a vote by plurality?

Uh...sure.

[Persivul]

Votecount 1.1

Iconeum (2): Menalque, Formerfish
Menalque (3): Egduf, EspressoPatronum, Carl Tuckerson
Gandalf (1): Delta Klim
Most Serene (1): TiphaineDeath
TiphaineDeath (2): Gandalf, Oversoul

Not voting (4) - Hectic, Most Serene, Tet, Iconeum

With 13 alive, it takes 7 votes to strand.

(expired on 2019-08-01 05:30:00) remain until day end

[Delta Klim]

@Mod

, you have some of us both voting and not voting.

Fixed!

[Carl Tuckerson]

I guess all my meme votes don't count lol.
UNVOTE: Menalque

[Delta Klim]

I believe I have discovered a possible breaking strategy for this setup once a Mafia is dead and at least one Mason lives.

Spoiler: Words

The Masons pair the non-Masons (minus 1 townread if an odd number of non-Masons remain) off, making sure to place unlikely scumpartners together. Everyone shoots the person they're paired with. Not shooting is treated as a scum claim. The Masons and townread barricade.

At Night, everyone will die except the Masons and townread, with the possible exception of the Mafia Strongman choosing to kill someone other than their pair. (The Mafia Goon, if they are alive, can barricade, but that costs the Mafia a kill and puts them in a 1v1 with their pair, so it accomplishes nothing as they will be forced to pair again the next night by the Town.)

If 1 Mason/odd non-Masons: Mafia win if they are the townread or, with 2 Mafia, they are paired. Otherwise, they die and Town wins.
If 2 Masons/odd non-Masons: Mafia win if the Strongman is the townread or, with 2 Mafia, they are paired. (If the Goon is the townread, the Strongman must shoot either a Mason or their pair, leaving the other alive and creating a 2v1 endgame with a conftown Mason, which is a Town victory in this setup.)
If even non-Masons/1 Mafia: Town win. The last Mafia is guaranteed to die with a townie left alive.
If even non-Masons/2 Mafia: Mafia win if they are paired. Otherwise, they are at best trapped in a 2v1 with a conftown (either the Mason or the now-dead Strongman's pair.)

---
Therefore, it makes the greatest sense to maximize the chance of that happening. In light of this, for night 1, I will make a slight change to my original plan. (In addition to keeping a strong chance that the stranded dies, it forces the Goons to at least think about barricading instead of taking a free kill-shot.)

Townies: 50% chance of barricade, 25% chance of shoot the stranded, 25% chance of shoot largest non-stranded scumread
Masons: 100% barricade, not a question about it.

These numbers are quick and off the top of my head, they may be slightly off by a couple percentage points.
Chance of a stranded Townie dying: 87%
Chance of a stranded Mafia dying: 90%

(All three below assume not stranded, random scumreads, and not the Mafia's target.)
Chance an individual Strongman or Goon (shooting) dies: 16%
Chance an individual Townie dies: 8%
Chance an individual Goon (barricading) or Mason dies: 1%

I might make this a Monte Carlo simulation if I have the time for it, but I do not need to in order to say that this strategy presents fairly good odds if we are good at scumhunting.

[Oversoul]

So the Stranded gets paired with the top mason town read?

[Oversoul]

I like that idea. I think we should try it unless someone points out a glaring issue.

[TiphaineDeath]

We should just, make with the lynching, of the scum, who is serene. W#hich, let's face it, is wierd AF because Scum are always so paranoid, but this one isn't, kill it anyway though, wheeeeee. Gnight ya'll.

[Formerfish]

Wait, are you a hydra Most Serene?

If so which head is the most serene of Most Serene?

kuribo will keep my murdercock under lock and key.
DGB

I think I may know where you are keeping it, or at least a good way to get a hold of it.


Does a murdercock have any in game value?

[Formerfish]

VOTE: Icon for an iconic first day strand

Goddamn I should be in advertising

Asking for a friend, after a second posting of a joke that got no play how do you feel?

[Formerfish]

So are we looking to agree who town should shoot, before we all go off on some random bloodlust fuelled rampage then?

I vote in favor of bloodlust fueled rampage

Kuribo is town

[Formerfish]

i'm always in favor of murder, but i can't promise DGB won't be like "LET'S NOT SHOOT TONIGHT IT'LL BE FUN"

I always just imagine the one perfect set of night actions that finds everyone dead in the morning, the mod doesnt know what to do and just slowly backs away and then quickly exits never to speak of the tragedy again.

[Formerfish]

Of 13 I've got 3 town and a metaphorical donkey. So that's nice.

Is there a chance of a literal donkey or are we stuck with a metaphorical one?

[Formerfish]

I really don’t like the fact that votes don’t remove someone from the game. :/

I dont think i understood exactly what that mechanic was, I thought we had the option for that, but not that it was the way things were going down.

So we have to basically nominate someone to get stranded and hope they are scum, who gets killed by one of us, but we wont know what the person being stranded is alignment wise right?

I should have read more about the game and not decided on playing because of the time constraints.

[Formerfish]

VOTE: Serene

post#48 is contradictory and must be purged

This a classic mafia post right?

Vote him and find out

The cavalier way that Over is cheerleading Gandalf is strange to me, and i dont know if its more or less strange that Gand is riding the wave without a thought.

[Formerfish]

VOTE: TiphanieDeath

This guy is town. I like his tenacity.

[Formerfish]

Personally I’m just

here for a good time not a long time

Howd you know what my tramp stamp said?!?

[Formerfish]

Okay, maths people. So

assuming there are "masons" then

. Is it better to vote to lynch today, and then select a backup for town to kill at night at random, or to leave it?

We dont have to assume, we know they are in the game.

[Formerfish]

On Night 1, almost no Townie should be confident enough in their reads to attempt a kill on anyone who isn't stranded.

Dude, we have so many people giving out near cop clears to people on d1s that ive started to policy lynch those moops because its horrible play. You dont think those same moops with cold steel in their hands and bullets whispering sweet nothings to them like a hot Saturday night date arent going to give in to their base desires and pop off a shot at who they think its really scum?

[Formerfish]

I like that idea. I think we should try it unless someone points out a glaring issue.

Im going to do what i did in ultimate wolf and let you guys decide the best actions to make and ride your coatails to victory.

This is more of a puzzle than a mafia game usually is for me. If you guys think we can find scum by doing that then lets go for it.

[Egduf]

VOTE: Hectic because I haven't seen him contribute anything yet

[Gandalf]

So the Stranded gets paired with the top mason town read?

I believe I have discovered a possible breaking strategy for this setup once a Mafia is dead and at least one Mason lives.

Spoiler: Words

The Masons pair the non-Masons (minus 1 townread if an odd number of non-Masons remain) off, making sure to place unlikely scumpartners together. Everyone shoots the person they're paired with. Not shooting is treated as a scum claim. The Masons and townread barricade.

At Night, everyone will die except the Masons and townread, with the possible exception of the Mafia Strongman choosing to kill someone other than their pair. (The Mafia Goon, if they are alive, can barricade, but that costs the Mafia a kill and puts them in a 1v1 with their pair, so it accomplishes nothing as they will be forced to pair again the next night by the Town.)

Surely we should be barricading EXCEPT the masons? What is the advantage for us of the masons barricading? Obviously I’m missing something, but please could you explain it?

If 1 Mason/odd non-Masons: Mafia win if they are the townread or, with 2 Mafia, they are paired. Otherwise, they die and Town wins.
If 2 Masons/odd non-Masons: Mafia win if the Strongman is the townread or, with 2 Mafia, they are paired. (If the Goon is the townread, the Strongman must shoot either a Mason or their pair, leaving the other alive and creating a 2v1 endgame with a conftown Mason, which is a Town victory in this setup.)
If even non-Masons/1 Mafia: Town win. The last Mafia is guaranteed to die with a townie left alive.
If even non-Masons/2 Mafia: Mafia win if they are paired. Otherwise, they are at best trapped in a 2v1 with a conftown (either the Mason or the now-dead Strongman's pair.)

---
Therefore, it makes the greatest sense to maximize the chance of that happening. In light of this, for night 1, I will make a slight change to my original plan. (In addition to keeping a strong chance that the stranded dies, it forces the Goons to at least think about barricading instead of taking a free kill-shot.)

Townies: 50% chance of barricade, 25% chance of shoot the stranded, 25% chance of shoot largest non-stranded scumread
Masons: 100% barricade, not a question about it.

These numbers are quick and off the top of my head, they may be slightly off by a couple percentage points.
Chance of a stranded Townie dying: 87%
Chance of a stranded Mafia dying: 90%

(All three below assume not stranded, random scumreads, and not the Mafia's target.)
Chance an individual Strongman or Goon (shooting) dies: 16%
Chance an individual Townie dies: 8%
Chance an individual Goon (barricading) or Mason dies: 1%

I might make this a Monte Carlo simulation if I have the time for it, but I do not need to in order to say that this strategy presents fairly good odds if we are good at scumhunting.

[Hectic]

Posting to

avoid

a prod. Catching up

now

.

[Hectic]

So after a

comprehensive

read up of the thread:
-Delta's strategy seems game breaking

which

is great. The plan for night 1 looks good. I will now proceed to point my

FINGER OF APPROVAL

at you. Consider this an honour.
-Eudgf voted for me so I shall now vote for her.
VOTE: Vote: Vote: Edfug
-We need to start talking

more

about who to strand and our scumreads. Majority of

discussion

so far has been on night strats and

working

out the maths of

said

strats.

[Tet]

Any day with odds can have each slot vote their pairing with the leftover voting the designated strand. For clarity.