his intro def set the context for how i read his posts. actively(not the right word but i can't find the appropriate one) jumping off the wagon seems like a newbtown mindset, in that having a wagon grow too fast could potentially end the day early.
as opposed to newbscum, that wouldn't really care because why should they.
his intro def set the context for how i read his posts. actively(not the right word but i can't find the appropriate one) jumping off the wagon seems like a newbtown mindset, in that having a wagon grow too fast could potentially end the day early.
as opposed to newbscum, that wouldn't really care because why should they.
Right, but given that hes not a newb, does that still apply?
In post 93, Donempire wrote:I guess my read comes more from not having meta knowledge, but i guess someone coming from epic mafia would play like this. I still dont know what to feel about it, and svs is still an option.
On another note, i dont like penguin/lost/almost just tossing people into the town pile. I think its frankly too early to do anything like this and im sure at least one of them is scum. Town wouldnt, or at least shouldnt feel comfortable tossing everyone they see into townpile just 4 pages into a game.
You think townbinning people too early is scum motivated?
Its anti town, and i dont think people should be indulging in throwing out random reads for the sake of it. Theres clear danger in townreading scum that might not be obvious at first glance, acting and reading people comprehensibly is good for town while throwing out random reads are not.
Whatever. Its 1 am, i just want to say that yeah its pretty anti town
This sort of pushing hard on "anti-town" behavior is different in both tone and content from your past couple of town games. Its not a mirror of your scum game, but I only found one and you replaced out.
This feels like you trying to rush into a read and yet simulatenously not committing to it, since you waffled on whether it was scummy in the beginning.
In principle im voting Dong here, but I dont want to lol hammer.
This is interesting. Its always been my mantra that throwing out townreads too early would be detrimental in helping scum, in fact in one of the recent games i finished i went on umlaut for doing that, newbie 2026. I was town and he was scum there. I'm interested which games you read?
To further elaborate, this has been my mantra for all my games, even my scum games. I generally follow a consistent mindset going from game to game, the only thing that changes when i change alignments are my goals after all. Not that i rolled scum, last game i did was, and i think you found it, a newbie game with cyrus and iconeum in it that was a few thousand pages long, and that was a year ago. I've gotten so used to rolling town that i dont have a scum meta anymore, lol
As for the waffling, i wasnt sure if it was something that was that alignment indicative. I was moreso trying to gauge reactions, though i did believe there was a possibility i was right. Still, i realize it was grasping, and i dont disagree with your assesment.
Posted: Sun Oct 04, 2020 7:19 am
by Donempire
In post 131, joqiza wrote:The thing about Dong for me, is that, yeah I disagree with a lot of the logic of his posts. I think the SvS read on me/PP was pretty basic, and the 1+/3 pool read in pp/lost/almost was like, pretty contextless (to the point where he had to immediately walk it back to just lost).
Despite this, I just don't know that the way Dong plays is really how scum plays the opening. My man has not outed a single townread. He came in with a big brain 2/2 and then decided to shade lost and almost as well. I kind of stan the energy even if I disagree with the post content itself.
Truth be told, i would do exactly this if i did roll scum It isnt off meta for me to just go hard on everyone for any slights i see, my reading is mostly consistent as both town and scum. Like i said, if you had any problems with my reads, i welcome it. I do realize i was making quite the leaps in logic when presenting that, so i'm fine with criticism.
his intro def set the context for how i read his posts. actively(not the right word but i can't find the appropriate one) jumping off the wagon seems like a newbtown mindset, in that having a wagon grow too fast could potentially end the day early.
as opposed to newbscum, that wouldn't really care because why should they.
Right, but given that hes not a newb, does that still apply?
it would, just to a lesser degree. i still see more town motivation from the unvote and justification than i do from scum.
Posted: Sun Oct 04, 2020 7:21 am
by Lost
hi dong how are you
Posted: Sun Oct 04, 2020 7:23 am
by Donempire
A bit exhausted, but still fine. And how are you?
Posted: Sun Oct 04, 2020 7:29 am
by Lost
i'm a little tired too. i guess life b dat way
Posted: Sun Oct 04, 2020 7:30 am
by Lost
would u be so kind as to share some reads
Posted: Sun Oct 04, 2020 7:38 am
by Almost50
@PP: I don't think Lost is scum here. If he is, he's got balls of steel.
UNVOTE:
Posted: Sun Oct 04, 2020 7:39 am
by Almost50
VOTE: Nona
This maybe scum. Let's go..
Posted: Sun Oct 04, 2020 7:56 am
by joqiza
@Almost50 I'm confused by 133 and 134. I don't really understand what you're saying there.
Posted: Sun Oct 04, 2020 7:57 am
by joqiza
In post 149, Billy Pilgrim wrote:
Why would you want to put your partner at E-1 early if youre scum?
Why would you not? Seems like an excellent move to me. Early wagons dissolve easily and scum can win this setup by building a sufficient non-associative with their partner.
Posted: Sun Oct 04, 2020 8:01 am
by Donempire
In post 162, Lost wrote:would u be so kind as to share some reads
Reads are a strong word. I do have a townlean on billy however. I think their posting is down to earth while not being fluffish. I can say the same for joq, but for different reasons. I like posts like 117 and 126. Its also a slight townlean there.
As for the rest, if i had to lynch right now i'd go with almost or penguin.
That leaves me, you and nona. I have no thoughts on nona. I dont think i have enough info to make a lean on you.
Posted: Sun Oct 04, 2020 8:10 am
by joqiza
BP ostensibly meta-diving Dong makes me feel a bit better about him. I'll have to think about it more. I've seen scum use meta to justify reads before, and I've done it myself, but not quite the way BP did it. And he seems generally concerned with making sure he's sorting players by player type correctly, such as in 155. I like that.
Posted: Sun Oct 04, 2020 8:16 am
by Almost50
In post 165, joqiza wrote:@Almost50 I'm confused by 133 and 134. I don't really understand what you're saying there.
Disregard
Posted: Sun Oct 04, 2020 8:50 am
by Billy Pilgrim
In post 144, Almost50 wrote:@Pilgrim: I am looking forward to seeing a brace (or maybe another hat-trick) tonight. Keep your fingers crossed.
Well, you got your brace, but wow didn't everything suck.
Posted: Sun Oct 04, 2020 10:33 am
by Almost50
I don't want to talk about it. I doubt anything I say will make me feel better.
Posted: Sun Oct 04, 2020 12:30 pm
by Billy Pilgrim
In post 171, Almost50 wrote:I don't want to talk about it. I doubt anything I say will make me feel better.
Yeah, im in a bad place at the moment. Can't really think now.
Posted: Sun Oct 04, 2020 1:01 pm
by joqiza
I'm actually a bit loath to peel back my process, cuz once you out a tell it becomes less useful going forward. But this game is just moving too slowly for me so here's where my head's at in terms of associatives. Maybe this will get people discussing a bit more.
A word on the methodology for the table below. The odds of correctly guessing the scumteam, given no information other than rand, is 1/30, or 3.33%. The corresponding % of picking any two players and correctly stating that "these two are not the exact scumteam together" is then 96.66%. Basically, it's an easy read to make, and I usually wouldn't approach the game this way, but with only 6 players to sort, I think there actually is PoE value in approaching the game like this. There are only 15 possible scumteams one needs to consider--with some analysis, one can reduce that.
Note that this table is secondary to my individual reads on players. I still favor the "one-scum-at-a-time" approach, and I intend to eventually vote the player I scumread the most, on their own merit. Viable partnerships will factor in but will not be the ultimate decider.
Dark Green:
Some evidence that they are not scum together
Light Green:
No conclusion beyond rand (the light green color is chosen to indicate the high likelihood that they are not the exact scumteam just based on rand)
Yellow:
Keep an eye on / needs further evaluation. Note that this doesn't necessarily mean I think they're more/less likely to be the scumteam than rand. Just that I find their interactions curious and want to focus on it.
The letters: A, B, C, D, and E correspond to the below cases.
Spoiler: A
The scumteam is not: PenguinPower/DongEmpire
This is the one I feel best about. Why?
Take a close look at 77, 78, and 79; in particular, the mod edits. What exactly happened here? PenguinPower got a pagetop, Dong followed up by making a (probably joking) post about it in which he calls PenguinPower a no-no word. What's interesting is that the mod not only intercedes to censor the word, but issues a word of caution to
stop arguing about it, that getting pagetop is stupid, and if you really want to argue about it do it in a civil manner.
I find it somewhat unlikely that a mod, with perfect information, would interpret and intercede in such a way if PenguinPower/Dong were the exact scumteam (as he would understand, intuitively, that they are theatering).
Beyond just the pure angleshoot, 85 is a sort of direct and biting shade which is unlikely to come from one partner to another.
As of right now, my gun-to-head "gut" read on these two is TvT, but I'll stay wary.
Spoiler: B
The scumteam is not: PenguinPower/Almost50
This is mostly predicated on the somewhat bizarre way in which Almost50 has approached PenguinPower. I don't really know what to call posts like 61, 115, 135, 142, and even 163, but they don't feel like posts I'd write about or to my partner as scum. I'm not sure what to make of them at all, tbh. It doesn't really read as a pocket, either. Just weird and probably not-partnered.
Spoiler: C
The scumteam is not: BillyPilgrim/DongEmpire
It's mostly based on how
persistently
BP has questioned Dong, beginning with 70, continuing in 82, and again in 100. He follows up with a metadive on Dong in 122 and a shade.
Billy's push on Dong is actually quite coherent. He mainly questions Dong's credits to me; given that I'm the other slot Billy has expressed suspicion of, it makes sense. I think Billy/Dong is quite easily TvT, but at the least I feel comfortable that they're not SvS. If they're theatering, they're doing so quite well.
Spoiler: D
Not sure how to feel about, but keeping an eye on: Almost50/Lost
Let's review how Almost50 and Lost have interacted so far. Almost50 subs in, and immediately puts Lost on E-1 in 54. (Note: I've previously explained in 166 why I do not consider this a non-associative.) Where stuff gets a bit weird is 116.
In post 116, Almost50 wrote:Btw, does me putting someone @E-1 mean anything to you?
In 115, immediately prior, Almost50 addresses both myself and Lost. It's natural to think that 116 is addressed at one of us, too. But surely it's not addressed to Lost, is it?
Because Lost is the person who Almost50 put on E-1
. It's a weird thing to do, to ask someone, "how do you feel about someone on E-1" when that someone is you. I interpreted this is as him asking me that question, not Lost.
But Lost seems to think the question is addressed at him, and responds:
In post 116, Almost50 wrote:Btw, does me putting someone @E-1 mean anything to you?
not rly, but if you continue to push it then maybe i'd be interested.
I'd announce intent and ask for a claim if I were you (and that would be regardless of your own alignment, tbh)
Yes, Lost should declare intent to hammer himself and ask for a claim (which he does jokingly in 137).. I guess they're referring to Almost50 putting someone at E-1, like, theoretically, outside of him putting Lost at E-1 in this game.
The whole thing just reads weird to me. Also, I also find the actual content Almost50 is saying questionable... like you would state intent to hammer and ask for a claim... on page 7? And lastly I find it weird that he just says "Disregard" to it all in 169.
Their other interactions are kind of funny. Lost basically says "what's your read on Dong" multiple times and Almost50 ends with saying "Yeah idk i just sheep PP." Lost basically shrugs and says "okay whatever."
Don't know how I feel about them as a scumteam one way or the other, but I'm keeping an eye on it. Part of me says, "hey, maybe this is weird because they feel the need to force interactions." The other part of me says, "if they were scum, wouldn't they interact more coherently?"
Spoiler: E
Not sure how to feel about, but keeping an eye on: Nona/BillyPilgrim
Nona's sole contributions this game are:
1. "townish vibes" from me/PP's interaction (TvT read?) in 101
2. townread on BP, also in 101
3. some basic questioning of Dong before she peaces out of thread again
Based on this I decided to at least keep an eye on the viability of a Nona/BP scumteam. There
is
some light probing on BP's side in 66 which could read partnered... but also could simply be innocuous.
Don't have a conclusion on this but it was one of the first things I was thinking about, and I mentioned it earlier. This is what I was thinking about.
Posted: Sun Oct 04, 2020 1:08 pm
by joqiza
A couple thoughts:
- Nona is currently viable with everyone. That's because SHE'S ONLY POSTED FOUR TIMES. She's getting outposted by the mod! It's annoying and it makes her impossible to read.
- I had a few other cells colored in, that after some review I decided to set back to rand because I didn't feel like the evidence was sufficient. To that end, if people have other cases, I'd be open to hearing them.
It isnt off meta for me to just go hard on everyone for any slights i see, my reading is mostly consistent as both town and scum. Like i said, if you had any problems with my reads, i welcome it. I do realize i was making quite the leaps in logic when presenting that, so i'm fine with criticism.
