Mafiascum.net

In post 146, Almost50 wrote:(Town would have backed off once they realized why I put Umlaut on the list by mistake)

In post 147, MURDERCAT wrote:I'm not backing off because I think choosing the first three people who posted is a really easy way to fake reads

Where in here is it implied that's why I originally voted you?

I voted you because your first statement sounded like you were trying to make fake content. If you weren't I think you were more likely to explain the reasoning for your claim. The fact that you didn't bother to check if umlaut had posted anything while trying make it seem like your reads were based on content when referring to nom made it worse.

In post 124, Almost50 wrote:Also: Umlaut, Murdercat & nom have one scumster between them. I don't think it's nom but I can't guarantee it either.

Why?

In post 135, MURDERCAT wrote:I'm saying that that rule isn't likely to be meaningful compared to picking any 3 players at random

In post 136, MURDERCAT wrote:(I feel the same way about your rule, sorry Titus)

Except my rule of 3 isn't random.

Sorry this took me sometime to verify the info:

Exhibit 1 Cakez was Scum
Exhibit 2 Ircher & Flea were both Scum
Exhibit 3 Drapion & Gypyx were both Scum
Exhibit 4 STD was Scum
Exhibit 5 Kitty was Scum
Exhinit 6 NDMath was Scum
Exhibit 7 Rule doesn't apply
Exhibit 8 Rule doesn't apply
Exhibit 9 Korina was Anti-Town
Exhibit 10 Rule doesn't apply
Exhibit 11 Oka was Scum
Exhibit 12 Mini was Scum
Exhibit 13 We Brought & BBM were both Scum

Breakdown:
3 No Scum in 1st 3 posters
7 1 Scum in 1st 3 posters
3 2 Scums in 1st 3 posters

Average: Exactly 1 Scum in 1st 3 posters

I believe these were all the finished games I've been involved in during the last 6 months.

Final decision: Assuming 1 Scum in the 1st 3 posters works more often than not.

Can you quote town games where you invoked the rule?

I suggest everybody check their last 5 games and see if Scum posted in the the 1st 3. If you get 4 games out of 5 you should probably vote MC here (or at least look closely at them 1st 3 posters(. If you get less than 3 games out of 5 you should ignore me. Exactly 3? Up to you. Just check your own games for funzies

In post 154, MURDERCAT wrote:Can you quote town games where you invoked the rule?

?? These were ALL the games I played this year. My alignment shows in every game.

Did you post in the games about the rule is my question

I may have done it in some, yes, but I used the rule more often than I had spoken of it.

But what does it matter? Let's say -hypothetically- that this is the 1st time I speak of it, or even apply it. How does that change the fact that in 10 out 13 games the rule did apply?

Because a quick ctrl+F shows that the only place you mentioned it that I found was in a game where you were scum: https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12670363

(one of the links was wrong I think)

So I'm curious if you mention it as town

Also I'm not saying your rule doesn't work, I'm saying it works with any 3 players and isn't useful for that reason

Oh, well. You caught me. *Smirk*

But seriously; Let me get back to you about this in a few days. Remind me to.

fair enough

Day 1 VC #5

Flea The Magician (1): Toogeloo (52)
Xlos (2): DrippingGoofball (74), Titus (100)
Almost50 (1): MURDERCAT (126)
Jake The Wolfie (1): Jake The Wolfie (14)
Galron (1): Xlos (31)
T3 (1): Galron (81)
Titus (2): WhemeStar (72), T3 (75)
WhemeStar (0):

MURDERCAT (4) (E-3): Flea The Magician (33), theslimer3 (62), Almost50 (128), nomnomnom (144)

nomnomnom (0):

Not Voting (0):

In post 160, MURDERCAT wrote:Also I'm not saying your rule doesn't work, I'm saying it works with any 3 players and isn't useful for that reason

You do realize that a mean of "a whole one" is a lot more than the mean on "any random 3 players" (which is 0.692). Right?
And you do realize that the Stantard Deviation here is 1.209 which means the result tends to be close enough to the mean/expected value. Yes? (I do realize your "any random 3" has a SD of 0.961 which is even better, but considering your expected value isn't "1" that's still less than what my rule yields).

I mean, we're in a a Battle for Calculasia, so we're bound to use our mathematical/statistical weapons after all, and I'm applying simple statistics and probability here.

You aren't doing the right math

No? Show me..

Also IRRELEVANT: Remind me when your Open Draft Mafia is open for sign-ups of you will. I think I replaced into one earlier, but I want to be in the whole thing from the start

It is now!

I will do the math in a bit, but it's mostly academic and not really game relevant

My husband is a statistician and I will NOT ask him to work this out.

In post 128, Almost50 wrote:Edit: Vote changed to be read by VCer. Don't forget that case matters.
~Ircher

lazymodislazylol

In post 143, Flea The Magician wrote:I do know how to make 2+2=5 though :3

My 12 year old son taught me that 2+2=Fish.

Let me simplify it for you, DGB:

There are 135 combinations (of 3) that contain exactly 1 Scum, 30 that contain exactly 2 Scums, and one that contains 3, out of of a total of 286 combinations in a 13-players setup.

That is to say there are 166/286 combinations that include at least one scum in MC's "random" theory. That's like 58% of all combinations.

My proposition gives 10 out of 13 cases which is about 76.9%

My "mean" or "average" would net one scum per set of 3 (first posters), while MC's would net less than 0.7 per set. So, hypothetically if we applied my method to 100 cases and MC's to 100 cases I would get 100 Scums and he will get only 70

The SD is smaller for his proposition, so his results will revolves around the mean (0.7) with less deviation than mine would around a whole one, but given that my mean is higher my proposition still gives better results over time (because mine revolves around one.. give or take, and his revolves around 0.7 give or take, and with a SD of 0.96 is unlikely to ever get much higher).

But if you don't want to work your brain at all, just look at my games to get the gist of it. There's a 76.9% chance there's scum in the 1st 3 posters (or if you choose to trust me it's closer to 80% over a bigger sample).

VOTE: MURDERCAT

What's the case on MurderCat anyways?

Murder panicking at A50 analysis.