IDK why T3 is SRing me.. I tried to get them to explain and they didn't.
IIRC, you are saying T3's reaction to getting SR and Roden's response to that are reasons to TR them? IDK I just don't trust it right off the bat. T3 and Roden seem to be doing this sort of secret handshake thing that I don't really get. If your TRs on these players are based on their reaction to things, then it might be worth it. Else, I just see the ongoing discussion about these things needing to happen (eventually) and since no one has claimed Tracker yet, I think it's fair to say there isn't one.
Ok fine I'll just claim so we can get T3/Roden to play the game!! I am tracker, im gonna go for the night so i will probs re read game tmr afternoon or smh after work
This is still bugging me. Why are people using bad tells? Defensiveness tell? Honestly tell? Why are people still using these? And Roden also used the honestly tell and I think that is bad because they should really know better.
Posted: Thu Aug 12, 2021 6:15 pm
by MargotRosa
In post 149, HockeyFan wrote:licketys at E-1 lol wtf? I think from Lickety's reactions to being put at e-1 is town+. They arent panicking like scum would nor are they doing damage control(ie giving some last min scumreads to distance from thier maf partner)
Totally misunderstood what e-X rules were. Thought it meant that your vote would only count up to n-1 votes, which meant people couldn't hammer off your vote. I believe the only votes for LQ are Roden, T3 and myself, so I'll correct
In post 149, HockeyFan wrote:licketys at E-1 lol wtf? I think from Lickety's reactions to being put at e-1 is town+. They arent panicking like scum would nor are they doing damage control(ie giving some last min scumreads to distance from thier maf partner)
Totally misunderstood what e-X rules were. Thought it meant that your vote would only count up to n-1 votes, which meant people couldn't hammer off your vote. I believe the only votes for LQ are Roden, T3 and myself, so I'll correct
VOTE: LQ e-2
In other words, your fine voting for me. Okay, well just say so then.
In post 46, T3 wrote:Mafia not killing anyone is worse than them killing a VT. It's not logical for them to take that risk.
Are you suggesting that Scum will not used their NK if we do this strategy?
No. I'm saying that scum going for Tracker in a 50/50 nk/kill tracker isn't worth it if it fails.
VOTE: T3
Switching vote to T3 for what is either some wild scummy behaviour, or a galaxy brain townie that will lead us astray anyway.
If we reveal who tracker is, scum knows who tracker is. They also know that, whatever the setup, there is one town PR left, and if they manage to snipe them, they can take out the tracker, who they 100% already know. Town is automatically far more likely to lose both power roles, if chance alone is factored in.
If we don't reveal tracker, the likelihood that town randomly loses both PRs by d3 is 2/7 * 1/6 = ~4.8% chance. This is not even taking into account whether we have a doctor, and if we do, that chance is lessened even more.
On the other hand, if we do reveal tracker, the chance that we lose both PRs by d3 is the chance of randomly picking the doctor out of the remaining 6 townies, allowing them to kill the tracker n2, giving 1/6 = ~17% chance. Here, there is no real doctor to lessen the chance further, as doc needs to protect tracker on the off chance scum play a wild card and kill tracker as a fake (risk of this happening is higher than the probability of randomly picking the 1/6 townie that scum will also target).
That is how much we screw ourselves by revealing a role. <4.8% chance of randomly losing both PRs goes up to ~17% chance.
As T3 is a seasoned forum player, I'd expect them to know this, or have at least observed it. Absolutely scum read on T3.
In post 46, T3 wrote:Mafia not killing anyone is worse than them killing a VT. It's not logical for them to take that risk.
Are you suggesting that Scum will not used their NK if we do this strategy?
No. I'm saying that scum going for Tracker in a 50/50 nk/kill tracker isn't worth it if it fails.
VOTE: T3
Switching vote to T3 for what is either some wild scummy behaviour, or a galaxy brain townie that will lead us astray anyway.
If we reveal who tracker is, scum knows who tracker is. They also know that, whatever the setup, there is one town PR left, and if they manage to snipe them, they can take out the tracker, who they 100% already know. Town is automatically far more likely to lose both power roles, if chance alone is factored in.
If we don't reveal tracker, the likelihood that town randomly loses both PRs by d3 is 2/7 * 1/6 = ~4.8% chance. This is not even taking into account whether we have a doctor, and if we do, that chance is lessened even more.
On the other hand, if we do reveal tracker, the chance that we lose both PRs by d3 is the chance of randomly picking the doctor out of the remaining 6 townies, allowing them to kill the tracker n2, giving 1/6 = ~17% chance. Here, there is no real doctor to lessen the chance further, as doc needs to protect tracker on the off chance scum play a wild card and kill tracker as a fake (risk of this happening is higher than the probability of randomly picking the 1/6 townie that scum will also target).
That is how much we screw ourselves by revealing a role. <4.8% chance of randomly losing both PRs goes up to ~17% chance.
As T3 is a seasoned forum player, I'd expect them to know this, or have at least observed it. Absolutely scum read on T3.
I do know this, but having 2 IC's on Day 2 is
very
good. If just one of the players in the non-PRs is obvious town then we have a PoE of 4 people.
You literally can't be because otherwise you are a PR and not hiding anything with a comment like this. Else it's just unnecessary WIFOM.
Agree this is all very odd. That said, so long as the parties involved agree to share what this strategy is after the game ends, I'm happy enough to just let it slide for now
In post 96, MargotRosa wrote:I think Roden and T3 could easily be playing mindgames here. Idk. Could go either way.
In post 61, Astra wrote:Lol actually part of my suspicion was that you
weren't
voting her
Just noticed this. The bloody humanity of it all.
UNVOTE: T3 for now. Still unsure, but I think Roden would have to be in a pair with them for it to make sense at this point, and coming out as a strong pair early d1 would be a wild play
I am getting strong town sense from Margot, contrary to what some others have said. It seems like she is really trying to sort -- some internal back and forth is good. I really liked 53 although I didn't check the math. It reads to me like a newbie who is really determined to put in the work.
Hockey is a town lean for me, though I disagree with the argument in 94 that withholding information is
always
anti-town. If someone is trying to bait a trap or is an investigation role who doesn't want to share results until they have a guilty, etc, there are some cases where that's good to hold back. If T3 was trying to do a spicy town play, which is totally T3, then not spelling out the details is beneficial. But the way that he's making his argument reads town, even if I disagree with it. Although I just realized it could be scum trying to get info on what the play is. Still not enough to change my read though.
T3 is probably town for the exact reason that Hockey outlined -- it's a huge gambit for scum to do right out the gate, so it seems unlikely.
Roden is null. 77 struck me as weird as well, but I don't see why scum would town lock T3 after that risky play. Then again, he then went on to walk back that town lock in 91.
Clasko and Egix are null.
The Astra slot is a sliiiiight scum lean because even with so few posts and the swift replace out, it seemed like she might have been jumping on the LQ wagon, and her RVS vote was also a wagon.
LQ -- I get a bad sense from 125. It reads a bit like complaining about getting scumread with a liiitle smidgeon of omgus, especially considering they imply that T3's gambit isn't scummy in 57 before bringing in a little more setup speculation.
The main thing that gives me pause is the very fact that LQ is a wagon already. It could be a quick and easy miselim. I also have no interest in pushing anyone to E-1 right now, so I'll leave my vote on the Astra slot for now to put a little extra fire on whoever joins in.
Roden knows exactly what is going on and he is locktown for that.
Currently, I think both T3 and Roden lean town. The more I read through the logs, the more I second guessed my initial scum read. The three minutes between T3's first posts, and the post to out tracker #22 definitely tripped my senses a lot, as it felt like brief time spent hatching a scheme, but that could just as easily come to what Roden is talking about, which I think I may have actually worked out. Roden feels like more of a wildcard than T3 at this point, but nothing that really makes me go one way or the other. Glad that I stuck to it a bit longer than warranted though, because it's definitely given good info.
Hockey: Hard to say, but slight town lean. Points all make sense, but also could point to a long con (see, for instance, lots of early, aimless banter [#7, #8, #13, #14, #16, #18], and later planting the idea that scum lay low early game [#62, #122], which could easily be a very base ploy to take heat off).
Null
Egix: Has laid low most of the game. [post=#p12939319]111[/post] makes me want to give him benefit of the doubt.
Astra is totally null for me atm. I think the fact she had to drop out early means posts will be hard to interpret. Nothing to go on, and I'll treat as a fresh slate when slot is refilled.
Lean scum
Clasko: Had very minimal engagement early on. Dropped in at #50 through #52 to post 3 nothing comments, with a followup meh reflection on RQS at 54. Seemed pretty cool with T3’s tracker idea at #55, but then seemed open to a d1 elimination for T3 in #118. Has a scum read on Hockey, which is interesting #115. Reasoning seems pretty flaky, when there are much better reasons to scum read him imo. Highest conf is on LQ, purely for the ordering of his slots, which blows my mind.
LQ: Way more interesting than Hockey's immediate question at T3 for the tracker play [post=#p12936791]#23[/post] which wasn't even really a callout, just a one word question that was left for several posts and almost five hours, was LQ resurrecting by restating the question [post=#p12937132]#32[/post]. Takes the heat off of you by shifting it onto someone who can be named as the instigator. Extra odd given that LQ later said that they knew tracker reveal was site meta, leading one to think that they would know exactly why T3 wanted to reveal tracker (see #80, #132). On top of that, they have been incredibly defensive throughout d1 (wanted Roden to go through past game logs to see their history of RQS v RVS in #38 and #39, defensive at Astra's veeeery loose scum read #68, defensive about T3 and Roden explanations as to why they voted #125). Attack on Roden for not sharing info, looks extra weird in this context (see #87), as I think it makes perfect sense as to why Roden wouldn't want to share info.
Alstro had minimal engagement early on. Only non-obvious read in #130 is a strong town read on me, and that could very easily be getting onside a slot who is making hard claims early in the game. Also, reading everyone as null or above other than two players already pointed out as behaving in an obviously odd way (Astra and LQ) feels like a safe play, especially when Astra is being subbed out and therefore justifying an opinion change later on. I have also been reading into the read lists a bit too much probably, but they line up for Alstro and LQ to be scum team (Alstro mentions a very loose scum read on LQ that's easy to walk back, but useful to make them seem like town if LQ gets smoked).
I could just be stupid here, but it sounds like Margot doesn't acknowledge T3 as Town (and me as Scum) until this RL.
I'm trying to figure out how/where the turn happened in Margot's thought process and I can't see it. Seem like they just went from SRing T3, to TRing T3 to SRing me. I don't see an indication where Margot starts to buy T3's reasoning until they solidify their TR on Roden. I'm not wild about Margot's lack of progression here. If someone can point me to where Margot started to TR T3 before this post let me know.
This is still bugging me. Why are people using bad tells? Defensiveness tell? Honestly tell? Why are people still using these? And Roden also used the honestly tell and I think that is bad because they should really know better.
You are mistakenly thinking that I was being completely serious there when it was only more like 50%.
Posted: Thu Aug 12, 2021 6:54 pm
by LicketyQuickety
In post 140, MargotRosa wrote:Currently, I think both T3 and Roden lean town. The more I read through the logs, the more I second guessed my initial scum read.
This is another thing I don't get. Were you initially saying you thought T3 and Roden were SvS? If that's the case and you went from SvS reading them to TvT reading them, then I'm not quite sure how this figure that these two players (being Town) means I am Scum. I get that these two players are both SRing me, but I'm not sure how you get from, "T3 and Roden are Town," to saying, "Therefore, LQ is Scum."
This is still bugging me. Why are people using bad tells? Defensiveness tell? Honestly tell? Why are people still using these? And Roden also used the honestly tell and I think that is bad because they should really know better.
You are mistakenly thinking that I was being completely serious there when it was only more like 50%.
Okay, well that was really unclear.
Posted: Thu Aug 12, 2021 7:01 pm
by LicketyQuickety
@Margot, Do you read every interaction someone has with someone else as a Town or Scum read toward that slot?
Posted: Thu Aug 12, 2021 7:18 pm
by LicketyQuickety
Actually, I am at E-1 at this point...
Margot, are you looking for a quick lynch or what?
Posted: Thu Aug 12, 2021 7:32 pm
by Egix96
In post 117, Clasko wrote:Nothing immediately alignment-indicative has come from Egix yet, and
the 'vibes' post on Hockey was a bit 'meh',
but they're making an effort with their recent reads and are looking at alternate angles for them that weren't immediately obvious to me.
For when you come back: are you able to explain why that was?
On that note: I'm finding Alstro's 130 to be meh, mainly because I don't vibe with the reasoning given in the first and last paragraphs.
Margot, are you looking for a quick lynch or what?
I thought Astra's vote was scrubbed when they dropped out. If that's note the case, then
UNVOTE:
I try and read every interaction from both perspectives.
Wrt T3 scum read, I expressed some uncertainty as early as 81. Revoted T3 105 but that was equal parts feeling like I wanted to push it a bit more due to uncertainty and part wanting to keep the conversation going to get some reads.
This is still bugging me. Why are people using bad tells? Defensiveness tell? Honestly tell? Why are people still using these? And Roden also used the honestly tell and I think that is bad because they should really know better.
You are mistakenly thinking that I was being completely serious there when it was only more like 50%.
Okay, well that was really unclear.
The "nothing major" bit was meant to be a hint at that, but
In post 140, MargotRosa wrote:Currently, I think both T3 and Roden lean town. The more I read through the logs, the more I second guessed my initial scum read.
This is another thing I don't get. Were you initially saying you thought T3 and Roden were SvS? If that's the case and you went from SvS reading them to TvT reading them, then I'm not quite sure how this figure that these two players (being Town) means I am Scum. I get that these two players are both SRing me, but I'm not sure how you get from, "T3 and Roden are Town," to saying, "Therefore, LQ is Scum."
It wasn't a "T3 is Town and Roden is Town therefore LQ is scum", those things all happened over a period of time and were unrelated.
I decided to shut up a bit midway through the conversation until I got more info, and then put forward the reads I'd collected in that time in one go
Posted: Thu Aug 12, 2021 8:01 pm
by Roden
UNVOTE:
The wagon on LQ built up a little too fast. I think it's weird that he's focused on me saying "honestly" once, and he's clearly panicking and scrambling to avoid getting elim'd. But this is feeling more like a townie flail than a scum flail. Like, less like his back is against the wall and more like he got ganged up on and he doesn't think it's fair. Plus, there's basically been zero resistance to this wagon. If LQ is scum, then his scum buddy would have to be bussing him extremely early into the game.
If we can't find a better choice by EoD then I'll most likely put my vote back on him. But we've still got seven IRL days left until Day 1 ends, and I don't think voting someone out early is a good idea. We should get more info from more people so we can look for associatives when we get a flip.
Posted: Fri Aug 13, 2021 12:48 am
by T3
Honestly I just get bad vibes from LQ.
PROTECTIVE SHOULD ALWAYS BE ON TH TRACKER
I think Egix is ~~vibing town~~ and idt we condemm him today, I need to hear more from Clakso to get a read on them. T3 is still town, Lickety is still town. I think Margotrosa's progression is town. Roden is still scum mainly based off POE and i dont like /some/ of their posts either. Uhhh i think thats it? im probs forgetting someone
Posted: Fri Aug 13, 2021 9:23 am
by T3
Hey Hockey you should trust me when I say rodentown.
Posted: Fri Aug 13, 2021 9:46 am
by LicketyQuickety
I don't like that T3 is shading me with no reasoning. Very sketchy.
