Newbie 680: In this town of Cookieland... Over!

[Save The Dragons]

The OMG is that a lynch? No. It is not.

4 Young Eric (Barros, My Milked Eek, popsofctown, guy0)

2 Popsofctown (Moratorium, YOUNG ERIC)
1 Guy0 (PimHel)
1 Barros (Capricious)

NV: Lindisfarne

With 9 alive, 5 to lynch...

[Moratorium]

I thought Martin413 got replaced.

[guy0]

I thought usernamenotincluded got replaced also

[Save The Dragons]

Shush! I swear I don't copy old vote counts, move the names around, and ignore what actually happens in the game!

Oh yeah, and I'm seeking a replacement for Lindisfarne, who requested to be replaced.

[Save The Dragons]

Chuck Norris replaces Lindisfarne effective immediately.

[Moratorium]

Plenty of time has been given for a claim or a defense, last post was 8 days ago, no V/LA notification, and we all collectively think you are guilty.

vote: YOUNG ERIC

[ChuckNorris]

Hi guys. I'll read through now.

[ChuckNorris]

Sorry guys. Got held up on reading here is my reply...well on nearly 3 pages. Getting tired so I'll take a look on the rest 2moz.

Post 12- This may be the first page and all, but iy looks like pops, is trying to buddy up with everyone. This is probably just a newbie thing, but it may be clever scum.

Post 23- Someone pointed it out later on, but this post is quite contradictoary. Scum making up reasons? Probably not. Again I think it is a newbie thing.

Post 25- More buddying up. Not liking it, but nothing that is outright scummy.

Post 28- First slightly scummy post. The fact that Moratorian has posted this, makes me think impatient scum. Not very scummy, but the first actual scumtell.

Post 33-37, Quite annoying actually. The fact that I already have to read 7 pages, isn't helped by this spamming, effectively.

Post 38- This is also rubbish. Should be classed as part of the spamming, but since it had a vote on, it gets it's own class.

Post 39- Question: Pops, why were you so touchy? Surely you realised that this post wasn't serious? I find it quite scummy. It could be scum trying to fend of any votes in his direction. Also L-3 isn't dangerous at all. Even L-2 is safe. Scum aren't gonna jump on a wagon and hammer at L-2 they'll die.

Post 46- This is another case of buddying up. Un FoSing to try and please the town. Another case of scuminess?

Post 51- Wtf? Why are you voting for someone on something small like your reason? I can see where your reasons are justified, but not a vote.

Post 55-...? Don't like this at all. I think this is lurking tbh. Also the vote without giving any sort of into at all.

FoS: Capricous.

Post 60-61: By that post I can tell your playstyle is aggressive. Interesting. I can understand your reasoning, but I feel it was a bit hasty immediately voting him. IMO I think you should havs FoSsed him or something.

Post 64- Good posting. Good reasoning, and I see your point. I don't fully agree, as I think that YOUNG ERIC isn't neccissarily scum, as Pops' buddy(if he turns up scum). I think, IMO, that he is trying to buddy up to someone so that later on, he has some backup, as it is unlikely that scum will back up their buddy. Quite the opposite regularly.

[Save The Dragons]

The OMG is that a lynch? Yes. Yes it is.

5 Young Eric (Barros, My Milked Eek, popsofctown, guy0, Moratorium)

1 Popsofctown (Moratorium, YOUNG ERIC)
1 Guy0 (PimHel)
1 Barros (Capricious)

NV: Chuck Norris

Young Eric,

Townie

, has been lynched!

Night 1! Send night choices now!

[Save The Dragons]

Day 2, you awake to a town without My Milked Eek.

My Milked Eek, townie, killed night 1

With 7 alive, it's 4 to lynch.

[Capricious]

Well, crap. This is what happens when I am too busy to play mafia.

I will admit that at one point, I was considering YE to be scum, but he explained himself that he was pressed for time, and was using a iphone, so his posts come off having a different flavor than if he had enough time to construct more intelligible posts.

The lynch on Young Eric was horrible; he had obviously dropped from the site for inexplicable reasons, and needed replacement. (This is the only game he has ever posted in on mafiascum, and last post was Oct 1.) People joined his wagon with excuses that he was lurking, and not providing a defense.

I am inclined to believe both scum were on YE's wagon. I do not like Moratorium's little jump-in at all.

Moratorium states in his hammer post that he realized YE was absent, as such, wouldn't it be in the benefit of the town to replace him and let the successor defend him for the good of the town?

Moratorium also says: "we all collectively think you're guilty". This is of course, untrue. But, this also indicates that Moratorium is afraid to take blame for the lynch of Young Eric, which one should never be if one is town.

In conjuction, Moratorium, to use his own words, was very "wishy-washy" in events preceding the lynch. He switched wagons between pops and YE quite a few times, as though he does not care which one dies, which is always a bad sign.

Vote: Moratorium

Also let it be known that yes, I feel pops is town, and was arguing against his lynch. I am unafraid to disclose this.

[Capricious]

ChuckNorris, the voting of Barros without any other text was partly for emphasis: showing that the vote was not random, and partly because I didn't have more time to write a more thought-out post.

[Moratorium]

I made it clear that I thought both pops and Eric were scum. Saying I "switched wagons" or was "wishy-washy" is incorrect, I made it very plain that I was on both wagons and ready to hammer either player if they reached L-1.

Characterizing my vote on Eric as a "jump-in", considering I expressed my first doubts about pops and Eric in post 64, four pages ago, is also a very weak argument.

Obviously, this theory with Eric hasn't panned out. But painting me as Johnny-come-lately when I've been on this theory from the beginning is unhelpful and confuses everyone.

[popsofctown]

Hey people of the town,
I got back home just at the beginning of night 1. I was pretty unhappy to see that moratorium had dropped the hammer. I totally didn't feel it was time to hammer yet. If i was here when Eric had dropped into L-1, i would have withdrawn my vote, but i didn't get back so i couldn't.

Moratorium's logic for hammering Young Eric was pretty atrocious. Eric was an F+, and I'm an F-? That implies sureness about who is scum and who is not. This expressing certainty is a scumtell (according to the wiki), and i don't see how you could be 100% sure about our alliances, unless you were scum and you are certain both of us are innocent.

FoS: Moratorium

You can't be sure anyone is scum Moratorium. You should have left your vote on me if you thought i was more suspicious. It helps the town to do their absolute

best

guess

on D1. Emphasis on best and guess, Eric's innocence proves how it can seem very sure that someone is scum but that person really isn't. I was pretty sold, but i wasn't certain. YE seemed like the most suspicious person in the game and that's why my vote was on him. Voting for someone you don't think is most suspicious raises eyebrows.

Well, on another note, during night one i decided to write up a list of who i think would kill who on night one. It's not going to be edited at all from how i wrote it before learning of the kill. It's just guesses and thoughts, i think it's a good thing to start talk.

I dedicate it to MME *sob* because I miss him. He always told us (okay, told us once) to pay attention to who kills who, and we should.

Who would kill who D1…
I’m bored during night one of this game. This is being typed in Microsoft word. So before viewing the NK, but after having viewed dead Eric’s innocence , I’m going to make a list of who I think would kill each other person, if that person were scum and my supposed targets are not.
This could give a good starting place for D2 discussion, and keep me from running into circular logic loops of why a NK occurred .

Barros: Barros has played pretty aggressively out of the gate, and then dropped quiet. He stayed on Eric’s wagon without reinforcing the argument against him. I think he would probably kill a non-Eric-voter if he is (is or were?) scum. Capricious voted for him with suspicions, so Barros might kill Capricious, except that’s kind of obvious, so maybe he shouldn’t kill him, blah blah that’s the wine thing. He could kill Chuck Norris or Pimhel without stressing much at all.

Moratorium: Moratorium has played pretty aggressively all of D1. He argued very aggressively that pops+eric are a team, which has now been proven false.
He controlled D1 discussion and focused it on a concept/ a pair of people. If he’s scum, I think he will want to continue to control discussion and make sure everyone has the same tunnel vision he does. I think he would kill Capricious, who is generally skeptical of current precedings (like when he didn’t buy popsofctown+eric), and seems to make decisions on his own (like his vote on barros, never lifted all the day).
I also think he might kill Chuck Norris, his twilight post seemed to ignore moratorium’s direction of D1, and killing a non-mislyncher is always a good choice for scum (as I learned somewhere, it’s popular for scum to kill someone who wasn’t on a mislynch wagon, because a mislynch wagon is slightly more suspicious to be scum than any given average player. The scum try to kill people who aren’t suspicious enough to get lynched).

guy0: guy0 kind of nods along, points out the other way things can be interpreted. Ultimately he agreed with Barros and MME and decided to vote Eric.
Notably, early in the game he pointed out a way that I (popsofctown) could be scum, even if Eric is clean. The page before the lynch, he also begins to express that he doesn’t think Eric and I are “that connected”. This leads into a D2 popsofctown lynch pretty well. So he would maybe kill Capricious, who would be likely to defend me, since he has described my WIFOM and general suckage as not being that suspicious.
I think he might actually NK me, because that makes a case built against him more confusing, since he mainly focused suspicion on Eric and me during D1. If you’re reading this, I guess he didn’t NK me.
I also think he would be pretty likely to NK Chuck Norris. Chuck Norris FoSed Capricious for lurking, and sometimes guy0 skirts the line of lurkiness (even when he posts he doesn’t add that much to discussion).

Chuck Norris: As I wade through all the information on him, his obvNK would be…..
We don’t have much info on him. He expresses being tired and unhappy about having to read though all of this thread, and he condemns Barros, Eric, and me for spamming on page 2. Would he kill a talkative person? I think that’s actually probable. Without even knowing that was why perhaps, he would kill one of the persons who generated much of the seven pages he had to read in time to submit his kill. He wouldn’t kill me, I’m too suspicious and could be lynched anyway. MME has generated lots of text and is one of the least suspicious players at this point, and seems to guide the town in a positive way. MME quotes a lot too, so it would be double groans reading his posts, you know, you feel like you already read it once. I say he would kill MME, even though MME was on Eric’s wagon.

Pimhel: Hm, not much to go on here. He expresses much more suspicion of me than of Eric in his only real post. Looking back I see that both Pimhel and Chuck Norris have expressed suspicion towards Capricious. So that could be a road Pimhel looks at for tomorrow. If Pimhel planned on directing suspicion towards Capricious D2, he would have to leave Chuck Norris alive to help, and Capricious to get lynched. That would force Pimhel to kill MME or guy0 or Moratorium, the least accused bandwagoners. MME does the most positive discussion… so it would probably be him.
Really we don’t know much about Pimhel. Could kill anyone.

My Milked Eek: My Milked Eek has actually commented on his own experiences with night killings, so I have a metagame on him (did I use the term right? This has to be the best glossary game ever ). He said that he was in a game that the town won by good analysis of night kills.
I think this IC would play it safe and kill someone that anyone would want to kill. Chuck Norris or Pimhel, who weren’t on the bandwagon and have barely been involved in the thread. Maybe he’d even flip a quarter to pick which, to give even less info. Do they have quarters in Belgium MME? Quarter-euros? lol

Capricious: If Capricious is scum, he’s scum that is slowing down the game. He doesn’t comment as much as I think he should. He voted Barros on page 2 with no follow up explanation, that slows thing down, because we have to ask his reason, and he gives it in the middle of us all talking about something else.
I don’t think he would kill Chuck Norris for FoSing him, he isn’t the only one who would kill Chuck Norris but I doubt Capricious would even want to talk about it. So I would say he probably kills MME, who seems concerned with the tempo of the game (he accused me of stalling an active game, is later upset that the game might be slowed by my trip to florida), or Pimhel whose post shows a strong ability to challenge players and keep things going, and who doesn’t level a full FoS or more than a sentence at Capricious.

Popsofctown: I think it is stupid for me to do myself. I invite someone else to do me, in the sake of fairness. It will be after the NK is known, but oh well.

[Moratorium]

---

This is Post 164. You will want to remember post 164.

---

I took a shower, and made a decision. I'm going to take this entire game and turn it into a logical puzzle instead of a mash of psychology and failed motive guesses. I've been running the numbers in my head, and the various possibilities that could occur. The worst case scenario as I can see it now is that this post will give town a 33% chance of winning, but chances are good that those odds will be mitigated by other events.

Come, follow me down this road of mystery, will you?

I claim Sane Cop. Barros was investigated last night and flipped Guilty.

I decided to investigate Barros because I thought it was suspicious that as soon as I brought him up in post 64, he went super-quiet. My case against him was how he was contradicting himself in back to back posts, and I think it spooked him into not talking too much.

I am going with the following suppositions in this claim:
- I am a sane cop.
- There is a 50% chance of there being a doctor in this game (Scenario 1 or Scenario 3). A smart doctor will protect me tonight.
- If there is a doctor, there is a 100% chance of there also being a Mafia Roleblocker (Scenario 3), who, if he decides not to block me, will have a 25% chance (1 out of 4 other townies) of picking the doctor to roleblock.

The worst case scenario based on this claim is as follows:
- I am lynched. There is no doctor. I flip cop.
- A Townie is NK'd.
- Barros is lynched the next day as the obvious choice.
- A Townie is NK'd.
- This puts us in a situation where there is 1 mafia, and 2 town. Therefore, the chance that the correct mafia is lynched is 33% at that point, if we don't consider anything else (voting record, scummyness, etc).

Some events that I have considered to mitigate those odds:
- Town decides to follow my advice and lynches Barros. Immediately informed he is scum, 50% chance that Roleblocker has been eliminated. Town dies from NK (chance of doctor save), we go into Day 3 with 4 town and 1 scum. Good situation.
- I know right now that there's a 50% chance of there being a doctor. If that doctor protects me tonight, and survives the total 1 in 5 chance of being roleblocked'd, we get an additional night of investigation. Very good situation.
- Mafia might attempt to NK the doctor who self-protects at any point, wasting a nightkill.
- Town can mitigate the odds further simply by doing what town always does, attempt to determine who is scum based on what they post.

---

Now, I'm pretty sure that there will be some hem-hawing in the next page or two about this claim, and people will try to figure out whether to believe it, or just lynch me. Ultimately, since I picked the right person to investigate last night, me getting lynched offers absolute proof that Barros is guilty. So it's not all bad. If we are going that way, I'll have to hope that the

doctor is paying attention

and will protect me tonight.

However, I humbly ask that everyone pull up Barros' post history and make your own determination as to what's going on. I was suspicious that he went very quiet after I called him out, and my investigation was fruitful.

Good luck, all. The decision you make today will probably win or lose the game.

[Moratorium]

If we are going that way, I'll have to hope that the doctor is paying attention and will protect me tonight.

EBWOP: IF we

aren't

going that way...

[Capricious]

Unvote, Vote: Barros

[/b]

[Capricious]

I believe Moratorium fully, who do you think is the other scum?

[Capricious]

Well, the prime suspect right now would be guy0. It was a very scummy wagon, indeed. When I voted for Moratorium, I figured I was getting 2/3 odds of hitting scum. Had he not claimed cop, I would still be voting for Moratorium.

[popsofctown]

Hrm.. I have felt that moratorium is scummy for much of the game. I didn't like the hammer all that much.
I don't fully buy his claim. But based off the numbers, I don't think it really matters if we buy or not.

Worst Case Scenario: let me do maths...
5 town, 2 scum
mislynch Barros, Barros is doctor.
Townie NK
3 town, 2 scum.
Moratorium is immediately lynched. Even the scum helps.
townie NK
2 town, 1 scum.


Hmm. So worst case scenario for falsely believing Moratorium is the same as the worst case scenario for correctly believing Moratorium.

Looking at the math here.... it doesn't make whole lots of dollars and sense for scum to claim cop with a verdict day 1. There's always a 50% chance of counterclaim. Usually the counterclaimer wins.. as far as i know.

On the other hand, maybe this is a calculated idea from a Moratorium scum partner, not Moratorium himself. If Moratorium has a scum partner who feels that he is doing really well at flying under the radar right now, and feels that Moratorium has put himself kind of out there (especially with yesterday's hammer), maybe he said, "Hey, you claim cop with a verdict. Whoever you point at dies, then you die, and i got a pretty good shot at the endgame. You might otherwise get lynched anyway".



Moratorium's suggested that today's call is between Moratorium and Barros. I'm not sure it really is at all. What if vote around at the remaining players for scum? This puts off the decision, Barros is guilty or Moratorium is guilty, puts that off for later, we search for scum in the meantime. If Moratorium is not scum, we'd put a big catch 22 on the scum: not only is attempting to NK Moratorium possibly going to fail, but NKing Moratorium confirms his evidence against Barros and gives us a no-brainer lynch.
I'm not feeling up to the math on that. Moratorium, are you in a mathy mood? I think if we leave Barros alive, and just suppose Moratorium is detective in the meantime, we greatly improve our chances of winning without making a decision yet. I could be totally wrong about that, maybe we do need to lynch one of the two today.

Whoever the doctor is, make sure you protect Moratorium tonight if he is not lynched. It doesn't matter if he might be lying, protect him.

I'm gonna double post. Sorry but i need to look up some info on guy0 and Barros that i didn't talk about earlier.

[Moratorium]

I believe Moratorium fully, who do you think is the other scum?

I'm not going to answer this question today, it gives scum too much information.

So worst case scenario for falsely believing Moratorium is the same as the worst case scenario for correctly believing Moratorium.

This is a pointless sentence.

it doesn't make whole lots of dollars and sense for scum to claim cop with a verdict day 1.

Neither here nor there, but it is Day 2.

There's always a 50% chance of counterclaim.

That sentence makes as much sense as "There is a 50% chance that pigs will land on my house today". Either pigs will or won't land on my house, but just because there are only 2 choices doesn't make the odds 50%. I would put the odds at a counterclaim much much higher than 50%.

Usually the counterclaimer wins.. as far as i know.

Complete bullshit.

Moratorium's suggested that today's call is between Moratorium and Barros. I'm not sure it really is at all.

Look at Barros. If you don't think that Barros is the target for today, after an honest look at his post history, fall back and lynch me, town will still get all the information it needs. If you vote Barros and he flips town,

I GO NEXT

. Automatic.

I'm not feeling up to the math on that. Moratorium, are you in a mathy mood? I think if we leave Barros alive, and just suppose Moratorium is detective in the meantime, we greatly improve our chances of winning without making a decision yet. I could be totally wrong about that, maybe we do need to lynch one of the two today.

Suggesting to ignore everything I've said and go elsewhere is either you attempting to get Barros off the hook in a bad-for-scum situation, or, if you are town, HORRIBLE PLAY. Please explain to me the scenario where my claim benefits scum if I am completely lying about it, because currently your scenario is "Maybe Moratorium thinks he sucks as a player". I do not. Delaying this choice to lynch either scum or scum's investigator and giving up the potential information gained lacks judgment.

vote: Barros

Pops, and this is for serious now, if you are town in this game, you are going to need to learn when not to inject your confusing rhetoric when town is attempting to make a case. I do not feel that you are helping at all.

And if you're scum, well, Bravo.

[popsofctown]

ok, sorry. I stand corrected. I'm so used to a forum where everyone's so mean if you do something wrong, this is weird.

anywhoo.

a mosquito just started biting my hand so i blew it off. Then i was like "man, ow, my hand hurts. I should have killed that thing".
Then the same stupid mosquito started biting my hand two inches from the same spot. I was so ticked, man i smacked that thing so hard. If it had been my right hand hitting my left i probably would have broken it.

Just thought i'd share that with you guys.

popsofctown, you're so nervous.. why killing a mosquito? are you affraid that it is a spy?

Who says it's not? I caught it with a sample of my DNA.

Maybe the mosquito would find SCUM on your DNA..

This here is a bit of dialogue from page 2. It immediately struck me as eerie and scummy, and is part of why i joined Moratorium's FoS on page 3 (which Moratorium didn't particularly like if you recall).

Look carefully here. I talk about a mosquito biting me on the hand, and me getting "ticked". "I should have killed that thing", i said. And then i hit my hand so hard i might have broken it.
Nothing in this random bit of anecdote has anything to do with fear or nervousness. Pain and anger. That's all you'll see in there.
But then Barros asks "Why so nervous?". He asked for an explanation of an emotion i never expressed. "Are you afraid it is a spy?" He turns the situation into something to do with

espionage and deception

. I think he was projecting, espionage and deception was on his mind because he is scum.

I didn't want to point this out for a while because it's Freudian, reachy, and we haven't been on the topic off Barros much, but i figured now was as good a time as any to point that out. By the by, i can still faintly see one of the mosquito bites on my hand.

This suspicious bit form Barros is part of why I am leaning towards Moratorium being clean.


I have a bit of concern about guy0, because i think he was borderline lurking yesterday. I looked through his post history (during night phase). On October 3rd, he posted three times in another thread. He didn't post at all in this game, not until i think days later. Look at post 121 (the last post he could have seen while checking on his other thread), and pace back to last thing guy0 said, there's lots of things he could have commented on. Even though he posted on MS three times that day, he didn't feel it was necessary to comment on Young Eric's "confuse and misdirect" post, or that post about how he wants to look guilty just so he doesn't look connected to me.
This isn't damning to guy0, but it is concerning. FoS: guy0.

[popsofctown]

I believe Moratorium fully, who do you think is the other scum?

I'm not going to answer this question today, it gives scum too much information.

I'd say that sounds pretty legit, considering Moratorium is going to investigate his pick for next scum (which helps them decide whether to roleblock him)
Should we perhaps not ask his thoughts at all on other guilty persons? I think that's fair.

So worst case scenario for falsely believing Moratorium is the same as the worst case scenario for correctly believing Moratorium.

This is a pointless sentence.

I was just pointing out, the worst case scenario for believing you is 33%, worst case scenario for disbelieving you is 33%.
Admittedly, I think we have a better of chance of a better than worse case scenario if we believe moratorium.

There's always a 50% chance of counterclaim.

That sentence makes as much sense as "There is a 50% chance that pigs will land on my house today". Either pigs will or won't land on my house, but just because there are only 2 choices doesn't make the odds 50%. I would put the odds at a counterclaim much much higher than 50%.

If scum claims cop, and no cops have turned up dead yet, there is a 50% chance that one of the townies is a cop, because half the setups have cops. If there is another cop, i think there's no reason he wouldn't counterclaim.
So I'm saying, for a scum to make a fake cop claim at this point in the game, he's got a 50% chance of dealing with a counterclaim. This is evidence in your favor.

Usually the counterclaimer wins.. as far as i know.

Complete bullshit.

As far as i know, and i don't know much. Is counterclaiming not always a good idea? I may not understand the odds and plusses and minusses of counterclaiming at all. Can our living IC help me out with this?

Moratorium's suggested that today's call is between Moratorium and Barros. I'm not sure it really is at all.

Look at Barros. If you don't think that Barros is the target for today, after an honest look at his post history, fall back and lynch me, town will still get all the information it needs. If you vote Barros and he flips town,

I GO NEXT

. Automatic.

Based on his post history, I do really think he'd be a good lynch.
However, if we lynch him, we don't "get all the information we need". We get all the information we need to get to a 2 town 1 scum final day. That could be tough, especially since this fake claim would only be made if you had a pretty clean scum partner..... of course, i could use that expectation to find the final scum anyway. I'm leaning towards a Barros lynch more and more.

I'm not feeling up to the math on that. Moratorium, are you in a mathy mood? I think if we leave Barros alive, and just suppose Moratorium is detective in the meantime, we greatly improve our chances of winning without making a decision yet. I could be totally wrong about that, maybe we do need to lynch one of the two today.

Suggesting to ignore everything I've said and go elsewhere is either you attempting to get Barros off the hook in a bad-for-scum situation, or, if you are town, HORRIBLE PLAY. Please explain to me the scenario where my claim benefits scum if I am completely lying about it, because currently your scenario is "Maybe Moratorium thinks he sucks as a player". I do not. Delaying this choice to lynch either scum or scum's investigator and giving up the potential information gained lacks judgment.

I wasn't pressing the idea, i was just tossing it up. I don't think any play is horrible play until i have actually fully supported it.
I looked at the idea more, i actually typed out a whole explanation explaining how it could be good until i highlighted and erased it because i saw it was bad. The main issue is that Barros could be a roleblocker. If we can kill a roleblocker, that pays dividends.

vote: Barros

Pops, and this is for serious now, if you are town in this game, you are going to need to learn when not to inject your confusing rhetoric when town is attempting to make a case. I do not feel that you are helping at all.

And if you're scum, well, Bravo.

I'm not trying to confuse everyone, i just am trying to make sure we look at all the possibilities.

Like one possibility, what if you and Barros both are scum? superbussing. I don't think it's likely, like, at all, but everything should be considered.

@Capricious: Why do you think I'm town? Vibes or specific things? Why do you trust Moratorium's claim? Vibes or specific things?

@Moratorium: Why didn't you investigate me last night?

@Moratorium: ...I'm kind of sorry for being a noobish teammate/opponent in this game. That is, I'm sorry for any failings i have in helping the town if you are cop. Sometimes i sense some anger from you at the way i approach the game, and i'm sorry for that.. but i have to reaffirm that i can't alter what i do just because it upsets you, i don't know who is on who's side.

[guy0]

Well, the prime suspect right now would be guy0. It was a very scummy wagon, indeed. When I voted for Moratorium, I figured I was getting 2/3 odds of hitting scum. Had he not claimed cop, I would still be voting for Moratorium.

I don't believe that you can rightfully accuse me of lurking when I've still posted, posts of value I might add, much more than other people. And in terms of what pops says, I simply wanted to see people's reactions to Eric before I posted myself.


NOW to talk about moratorium's role claim. So I think Moratorium puts it quite well indeed. Unless something VERY weird happens today, Barros or Moratorium will be going to the gallows, and probably Barros.

Let's first look at an element of the progress of the game that no one seems to have completely examined the outcome of, the other non-townie roles present. SO, according to the possible setups, since we "know" (i use quotes because we don't actually know 100%) that there is a cop, that means that if a doctor is present, so is a roleblocker.

This means two things, one, that if there is no doc, and, thus, no roleblocker, and moratorium is telling the truth, then the mafia will know (since they don't have a roleblocker) that there is nothing stopping them from doing away with moratorium night 2. Now! if there is a roleblocker, and, thus, also a doc, the mafia will know the presence of the doc, and, thus, be wary when they decide on NKing moratorium as the doc may protect him.

At this point, if the mafia roleblocker is NOT Barros, then he/she would (this is all assuming moratorium is telling the truth, and barros is scum) roleblock moratorium to prevent future investigations, thus making him like a regular townie. If Barros is the roleblocker, then all is well since there will be a doctor protecting the cop who can continue investigating.

The next question is who takes the heat first. IF moratorium goes first, flips cop, we get Barros, which puts us at 2 town 1 mafia, and leaves us with relatively short days 2 and 3, which is not good for finding that one mafia. There's always the plus side that moratorium flips scum, and then we're golden. If Barros goes first, flips scum, then we have a good stance and a cop, but if it flips town, then we kill moratorium, and end up with 2 town, 1 scum, just like the other scenario.

What interests me is just what pops said earlier about moratorium's choice of investigation. I'd say that the main three people who were suspected as scum potential were Eric, Pops and Barros, with pops getting a little more attention in the polls than Barros. So moratorium made the right choice in investigating one of those two, I just wonder why he chose the one with less suspicion surrounding him.

NEXT, personally, I believe moratorium's roleclaim. He picked a right time to reveal his role if he's telling the truth (granted he also would have known this but w/e wifom wifom wifom). He's willing to sacrifice the life of a townie for the life of a scum, which is not as ideal as just getting the scum, but according to math, a good choice nonetheless. On top of that I think that Barros's supicion from day 1 outweighs moratorium's (which consisted of an overwillingness to hammer-vote not only the one he had the most suspicion on but also the one he had second most suspicion on, which is strange, as someone pointed out).

I'm not going to vote for Barros YET, because this would probably turn out to be a short day 2 if i did, because he'd be at L-1 already. BUT, more importantly we need to hear EVERYONE'S opinion on this role-claim/accusation because that will have a very high probability of revealing something interesting about everyone in the game (including the replacements who haven't had enough time to post a lot, which is not necessarily their fault).

Now it seems like I've written an essay on this so i'll end it now, and post the rest of my thoughts after i've seen more people post, and have looked more into the NK that just happened to see who would've done it.

In conclusion, since I can't vote for him yet for the above stated reasons

BIG FoS: Barros

but lets still keep an eye on the others.

[My Milked Eek]

Bah.

Go guys.

See you in a few pages, XD.