Big Brother Mafia - Town wins!

[LlamaFluff]

Ummm... you can all get over the shock and awe of me asking to be put up with snow and start talking now.

[Crazy]

^I'd support your idea, Llama, and I'd vote to evict Snow.

Obviously, it's up to Kmd, and I'm not sure he cares what anybody else wants.

[Snow_Bunny]

Ok, put me up with Llama. That should reveal some info on links and whatnot when I'm evicted. Some good info on Llama. Or maybe town gets to it and lynch Llama-scum.

[pablito]

Umm...this sounds too good to be true, and I'll likely have to reevaluate Llama (who I will most likely end up reversing my thoughts on when I actually read his posts). I'm strongly pro-lynch for snow right now.

[Kast]

@Probable Chenbot-
Saber/BV is the probable last Chenbot. Sly bussed him with his arguments and attacks throughout D1, but when it came down to it, didn't take any real actions to get rid of him. Siroginous initially supported saber for HoH, then turned around and joined the anti-saber group (bussing) once that was clearly the majority. The argument that it is too obvious is just a variant on "too scummy to be scum" and doesn't hold any water. There is absolutely no reason for a scum Sly HoH to abandon his position, thwart the will of the town, and make himself a huge target by dropping saber/BV instead of just nominating him and letting him be evicted. If he went with that, Sly would probably still be alive now.

I don't really see much of a SB as last chenbot case; I see SB as a non-contributing lurker in this game. Could be a lurker like Sir, or could be just disinterest in this game.

@Probable Producer-
Hewitt is probably AM's buddy. Of all AM's interactions, the clearest tie is with SF. Hewitt has also had consistency problems with inexplicably adding and dropping players from his suspicion lists (including AM and saber/BV), pretty much in direct relation with how the town as a whole felt about those players; and ultimately he repeatedly abandons his "suspects" for a game mechanic nomination.

To note, the only point where Hewitt doesn't follow the town is his self contradictory attacks on me where he indirectly calls me scum, but refuses to directly state it. His attempts to slip by on the technicality that he never directly calls me scum or says "I want to evict Kast" are themselves pretty scummy.

The whole chain of crap logic coming from Hewitt is pretty ridiculous:
-Attack Kast for having Coup (fearmongering)
-Attack Kast for "scummy" posts (ad hom, straw men, crap-logic)
-Say he doesn't think Kast is scum (technicality)
-Wants to Nominate Kast anyway (even after it is impossible for his doomsday scenario to come true)

Llama is next most likely, though this is a big drop from Hewitt. I like Pablito's analysis regarding AM-Llama, but I don't think it is anywhere near as strong as AM-Hewitt.

@Llama-
You're somewhat paranoid. You are not an auto-vote; although your end of D4 posts do flag you as probable third Producer after Hewitt.

Putting yourself vs SB would be pretty meaningless. SB is obviously the town favorite for eviction, and anyone against SB would have the same result.

Putting yourself vs Kast is a bit more interesting, though hardly as informative as you claim. Clearly some players think you are a probable scum (SB, Pablito, KMD), and it looks like fewer have clearly stated desire to lynch me (Llama and Hewitt, though Hewitt is wishy washy on it). Regardless, KMD thinks I am town, and I know I am town, so you aren't going to see yourself vs Kast and you know it.

Your noms sound like bluffs more than anything else. In a standard game, the whole "I'm such a good townie that I offer myself to be lynched so you can lynch my candidate when you see I am a townie" argument is BS, and your current proposal is an even weaker variant of that.

@Hewitt-
Asked and answered question. You should really read.

@KMD/Nominations-
My top preference is Hewitt (Producer), second is Saber/BV (Chenbot). Third goes to Llama (Producer). It is probably better to get rid of a Producer to remove any potential voting blocs. If your noms are likely to result in eviction of any of these three, then I won't use Coup today.

To your question, if SB is evicted today, I will almost definitely put up BV and Hewitt tomorrow (if SB is the last Chenbot, then I won't put up BV and Llama will go up with Hewitt). So it is unlikely that you will see Pablito vs Llama on D6.

If you put up Pablito vs Llama today, I am pretty sure Llama will be evicted, which is not ideal, but acceptable, so I would not use Coup today.

[LlamaFluff]

@Llama-
You're somewhat paranoid. You are not an auto-vote; although your end of D4 posts do flag you as probable third Producer after Hewitt.

Putting yourself vs SB would be pretty meaningless. SB is obviously the town favorite for eviction, and anyone against SB would have the same result.

Putting yourself vs Kast is a bit more interesting, though hardly as informative as you claim. Clearly some players think you are a probable scum (SB, Pablito, KMD), and it looks like fewer have clearly stated desire to lynch me (Llama and Hewitt, though Hewitt is wishy washy on it). Regardless, KMD thinks I am town, and I know I am town, so you aren't going to see yourself vs Kast and you know it.

I dont think I am paranoid here. If I go up without you or snow, im going to get evicted really easily as all that needs to happen is one player who is iffy on me does a little justifying. I leave with my finger on at least two of the remaining scum, but I dont stand a chance.

Me vs SB is actually an interesting one. Out of the voters, almost all of them are suspicious of me at least a little. I think I would be fine, but its not a guarentee at this point. Regardless of who gets lynched though, there will be more information there then there has been on any other one.

I do like me-you as an alternative though since again it will give a whole lot of information. I could see it going both ways, and I can see a whole of benifit from it happening, about as much as me-SB. I just like my me-SB chances more so am going that way.

[Kmd4390]

I would not use Coup today.

Becuase of this, I'm considering doing that. I think Llama is scum who knows that Snow would be evicted over him and is offering himself up against Snow, knowing he'd be safe. It kind of makes me want to evict him sooner.

[farside22]

This is the host just saying hi. Felt like commenting a bit and asking questions to the houseguest.
Anyone feeling safe this week besides the HOH? Do you think the either scum team could win the million dollars?
Also I'm considering reducing time so the game doesn't drag but if everyone is good with the 7 days discussion followed by 7 days to vote to evict I will leave it be.

Good luck houseguest

[Crazy]

Anyone feeling safe this week besides the HOH?

I am, actually. From an objective point of view, I'm probably the least likely to be scum, because I have negative links to both scum-teams.

Do you think the either scum team could win the million dollars?

Yes, everyone still has a chance, though it's going to be really tough for the last Chenbot.

[LlamaFluff]

I would not use Coup today.

Becuase of this, I'm considering doing that. I think Llama is scum who knows that Snow would be evicted over him and is offering himself up against Snow, knowing he'd be safe. It kind of makes me want to evict him sooner.

I know that im going to be evicted in this game unless it ends in three evicts, four at the most. If I put myself up against people who are popular evicts, its going to garnish the most information about who is taking the opportunity to vote me.

Putting me up against pablito/crazy is just going to end up in a landslide for me that isnt going to get you any information. Even if you are working under the assumption that I am scum, it would be best to put me up against other scum to get more ties on partners. You cant honestly say that I would be in a F3 in this game.

[Kmd4390]

You cant honestly say that I would be in a F3 in this game.

I'm surprised that you think you have no chance to survive to endgame. Like, I don't even know how to react to it.

Why do you think you would be evicted in a landslide over Pablito?

[farside22]

Just a note:

HOH nomination due by Friday Jan 22nd 5:00pm PST

[LlamaFluff]

You cant honestly say that I would be in a F3 in this game.

I'm surprised that you think you have no chance to survive to endgame. Like, I don't even know how to react to it.

Why do you think you would be evicted in a landslide over Pablito?

Well unless Kast is producer scum and SB is chen scum (which I think is actually opposite of what they are at this point), yeah I dont think I have much of a chance.

Kast and SB want me lynched now, pablito supports it, you support it, I think the only ones who wouldnt be voting me are crazy and hewitt, bv I have no clue on but I dont think he would be voting me. I need the people who are lynchable and pushing me to flip scum or I have no chance at making it. I doubt I make it to an endgame without a few people flipping different alignments then I expect.

Also yes I obviously get landslide evicted over pablito. SB and Kast will vote me in their first post, and I think at least one of crazy, bv, hewitt would vote me (or attempt to justify it). I would expect 4-1

[Kmd4390]

Llama, what do you think would be the outcome of a Llama/Snow nomination?

[LlamaFluff]

Llama, what do you think would be the outcome of a Llama/Snow nomination?

3-2 with I think snow getting evicted with something like

Snow (crazy, bv, hewitt)
Me (Kast, pablito)

Most information would be from a Kast-Me but he wont let that happen

[Kmd4390]

Actually, Llama, what are your thoughts on Pablito? You haven't really commented on him much and I think he might be your scumbuddy.

[LlamaFluff]

Actually, Llama, what are your thoughts on Pablito? You haven't really commented on him much and I think he might be your scumbuddy.

More or less neutral. I would vote him over crazy and hewitt. I would vote kast, snow and bv over him. You are around the same area where I can not shake some feelings, but its not enough to throw a vote that way without some more supporting evidence first.

[farside22]

prodding BV and Hewitt

[Kmd4390]

Day 5 and you have a neutral read?

[LlamaFluff]

Day 5 and you have a neutral read? :?

Well slight town, but its not a strong town read. I thought the guy he replaced was scum, and that still lingers despite him looking townish. Its just like how you are sort of reminding me of an old game where you were scum, especially some of your pushing on me.

[bv310]

Responding to prod. I think Llama vs. Snow would be pretty good, although my vote is prettty much a given.

[LlamaFluff]

Responding to prod. I think Llama vs. Snow would be pretty good, although my vote is prettty much a given.

Yeah like I said, me-SB would put about 70% chance of SB getting ousted, would not be a lock, but I think I would be fine.

[Kmd4390]

Llama, out of curiosity, which game?

[LlamaFluff]

803 (that 'normal' one spy ran). For everyone else that was a 8-2-2 game where kmd was scum. I was not.

This is just what made me go 'wait ive seen this before'

Looking over his posts, he hasn't really taken command like he usually does. He's gone after easy/popular targets. He seems like he could be connected to Sly/Sir.

Which I have seen something similar

But it's not lurking that has me worried about Llama. Well, actually, I guess that's part of it. He isn't controlling the game. He's not saying "ok, here's who we're lynching. Back off of this person and vote for this person".

[Kmd4390]

Oh. I thought you were scum in that game when I made that post. Afat and I had already assumed a second scum group or SK.