Nintendo Mafia (Game Over)

[The Master Hand]

^^Bunnylover is correct. That would be way to breakable. Besides, with that logic, how would you explain Marx as a mafia goon? Odds are roles were spread out among some minor characters as well. To make a case based on "which one doesn't fit" is to make a conclusion based on results we don't have, a false conclusion.
-Toast

[Kdub]

Jesus guys, did we have to claim role related information to get it through your fucking skulls that dana was town?
For fuck's sake, he couldn't have been townier.
IT DOESNT TAKE A ROCKET SCIENTIST.

I still think this is highly suspect. I can buy that you may have had a town read on dana, but you are getting way too indignant about how sure you were that he was town. You had him on your "unsure" list at one point, then the only reason you gave after that point for going to a town read on him was a "personal tell". Fine, but you didn't actually reveal what this personal tell was, nor did you actually defend dana to the extent that your certainty about his alignment suggests that you should have.

You know who had fallen off my radar again and is playing more passively than I've seen him play as town before? GhostWriter.

Regarding mass nameclaim, how about this. It appears that major characters have flipped as power roles and minor characters have flipped as VT/goon. The issue with thil's claim is that he claimed a minor character that is a power role, so it doesn't fit in. I had figured that the mod would have spread the PRs among both major and minor characters, but perhaps not. I think that if somebody either has a VT role as a major character, or a PR as a minor character, they should say so (without saying which one they are or claiming anything else). We can at least figure out whether thil's claim actually stands out without outing any PRs, or if we've just gotten unlucky with how the flips have gone so far.

I still feel thil is probably town, but the flips turned out to support what Dekes was getting at yesterday with the character-PR relationship. Also, if anybody has information that contradicts what thil said about the mechanics of him being roleblocked, they need to speak up.

VOTE: TMH
Willing to go for a GW lynch as well.

[GhostWriter]

Not main characters, just important ones. Marx was a Kirby final boss.

[lewarcher82]

PART 1: setup speculation

so, I will now elaborate a little about an expired insitution called the voting bloc.

No one in it was killed until the last night. Whoever killed Dekes also killed hohum & SSBF.

I started from the assumption that hohum was scummy, and that it could have been a vig- or viglike-kill. I have now to consider the problem from a different perspective.

We have 3 killing parties. One of them only killed on night 3. It is the party who "slashes". They slashed Wario (lucresia-lou). That lucresia was scummy is out of question. The way she hammered and her lurkiness were reasons enough for a pro-town killing role to take care of her.

Since the party that only killed once killed lucresia, and since it is unlikely for an anti-town killing party to be 1-shot, I will now assume that the other parties, which I will call the hohum-Dekes-SSBF-killer and the RC-Ythan-killer are the actual anti-town ones. One is obviously scum, the other one likely a serial killer.

I will concentrate on the hohum-Dekes-SSBF-killer... killing SSBF has no big meaning... personally, I think the big issue with him was that he was very town. Probably townier than several people in the bloc. Therefore, he was to be eliminated. Killing Dekes was important to give the bloc some further credit and to eliminate a joat who might have head further surprises. But killing hohum was *weird*, because he was scummy. There is only one player alive whom hohum suspected, this player is esurio.

Now, the very conclusion I would reach analysing the sequence is that there is someone hidden in the former voting bloc, which is now expired or at least will continue without me. I don't see significant scumtells coming from pinky. He made a real case against thil, with original points, and seems to be pushing it genuinely. Is it esurio, who got rid of hohum, or is it crazypianist, who wanted to make esurio look bad?

PART 2: the scummy ones

It is very hard to say who is scummier, inside and outside the former voting bloc. I'd say that my reads on the bloc, town-to-scum, are: pinky > esurio > weird.

However, I will now comment on 3 players I would now concentrate on: two belonged to the bloc, one did not.

esurio: her insistence in pushing cases on thil is surprising, especially because she hardly provided any original content about the spot. More than this? naaa

crazypianist/weird: looking at his ISO, it strikes me how he always was very cautious, always was on the right wagon in order to appear town, and hardly ever posted original content. His replacement, on the other hand, jumps in the game, skims the thread (you cannot have read 60 pages in one day) and does the easiest move ever: he votes thil. He doesn't even need to wait for thil's report. Was thil really blocked? Did he already know it?

Kdub: I am surprised at his TMH vote. TMH at the moment is the strongest townread I have... his motivation sounds forced and unconvincing. And crazy is preparing the filed for tunneling TMH later, in case thil's lynch won't go through. I smell a connection rather than a coincidence. And this fact brings me to my decision.

vote weirdalexv

[Bunnylover]

Their is no harm in me doing this.
I am Donkey Kong (DK), VT.
DK is a major character.
I was going to do this on my own accord later, but seeing as Kdub was thinking the same thing I was, I claimed now.

[GhostWriter]

Acutally, I support massclaim.

[The Master Hand]

@Kdub: I can't really explain why without saying it was role-related information, but OH WAIT, I guess role-related information WAS enough. Its mainly a personal tell with meta. Go read A Storm of Swords Mafia and read dana's play; it matched up pretty well. Also, we had a personal tell on him that made me think he was 100% town.
And honestly, he was SELF-HAMMERING. ESURIO. WTF. WHY WOULD SCUM SELF-HAMMER. SCUM JESTER =/= POSSIBLE. SCUM BOMB =/= IF HE SELF HAMMERS.

Your hammer was ill-carried out and scumalicious (scummy and malicious). And if your only argument was to save us from a no lynch then that's bollocks, my dear.

Should we have screamed "ROLE RELATED INFO ROLE RELATED INFO" and kept him around, and when asked to claim info said "oh it was a really strong personal tell with relation to roles"? Maybe. Goodbye, Anju.

Dear Esurio,

Read Bunnylover's claim.

Love,

TMH

Bunnylover is also town(ier) than before.

I'm against massclaim unless all my townreads argue for it. There's no need to do so now.

his motivation sounds forced and unconvincing.

-A

[thil13]

Not main characters, just important ones. Marx was a Kirby final boss.

Merlon is an important character from his game of origin, because he would help mario directly within that game. Perhaps not major, but important.

Anyone else gonna take shots for a ridiculous reason?

[lewarcher82]

his motivation sounds forced and unconvincing.

-A

not yours, kdub's motivation to vote you.

massclaim: I don't think we are in any mylo/lylo situation, which would justify such a drastic move. We are ten alive, to have a mylo, we need to have 4 alive mafias, which is unlikely (would make 6 of them with 20 players)... more likely there are two or three of them left... after bunny's claim, I have nothing against a massNAMEclaim (though I don't see how it would help), but if you want a massclaim with roles, please explain me the advantages of it.

[Pinky and the Brain]

Because I hold my townread on him regardless. We'll get a better look into what's going on after tonight, when they (mafia) CAN kill thil (no YthanDoc) and RB someone else like the person who killed one of them the other night.

They could have killed thil if they wanted to by RB'ing Ythan.

Ultimately, though, thil is probably not going to be NK'd, because he's scum.

Claim: Aurora Unit 242, Even Night Sensor

Roleblocked last night, but Night 2 results - 3 anti-town players on the Tragedy wagon.

Tragedy

- 10 - Pinky and the Brain,

SSBF

, thil13, mb53, GhostWriter, crazypianist1116,

Dekes

, esuriospiritus,

Ythan

,

danakillsu

- (L-0)

So, removing flips (and myself of course) that leaves 3 scum in:

1. thil
   
2. mb (now DemonHybrid)
   
3. GhostWriter
   
4. cp (now weirdalex)
   
5. esurio

THAT'S PRETTY DAMN GOOD ODDS.

I crumbed it in my first post of Day 3:

Let me guess, you knew Tragedy wasn't

scum

as well, just like Lelouch wasn't

scum

?

Then who is

scum

, pray tell? And why dodge the matter of the Tragedy

wagon

all yesterday?

For those of you following along at home, that's "scum x 3, wagon".


So, here's why we are lynching thil today, his scumminess aside for those of you with a town-read on him.

• Even ignoring everything, he has a 3/5 chance of being scum.
  
• I was RB'd last night. Either scum have two roles/players with the ability to roleblock, or one of us was RB'd by town*, if we are to believe thil is town. Likelier? Thil is scum.

*on the off-chance I was RB'd by town, PLEASE FOR THE LOVE OF NINTENDO DO NOT CLAIM. thil is scum regardless, no need in forcing out a claim from town.


VOTE: thil

POWER-LYNCH, GO!

[GhostWriter]

I have a theory. I refuse to discuss it.

[GhostWriter]

Yes, I am aware that not discussing it might not get me any support, but it could be wrong, and I won't know for sure until either tomorrow or a massclaim. I'm impatient, so I wanted a massclaim as opposed to waiting until there were less people.

[The Master Hand]

Because I hold my townread on him regardless. We'll get a better look into what's going on after tonight, when they (mafia) CAN kill thil (no YthanDoc) and RB someone else like the person who killed one of them the other night.

They could have killed thil if they wanted to by RB'ing Ythan.

Ultimately, though, thil is probably not going to be NK'd, because he's scum.

Claim: Aurora Unit 242, Even Night Sensor

Roleblocked last night, but Night 2 results - 3 anti-town players on the Tragedy wagon.

Tragedy

- 10 - Pinky and the Brain,

SSBF

, thil13, mb53, GhostWriter, crazypianist1116,

Dekes

, esuriospiritus,

Ythan

,

danakillsu

- (L-0)

So, removing flips (and myself of course) that leaves 3 scum in:

1. thil
   
2. mb (now DemonHybrid)
   
3. GhostWriter
   
4. cp (now weirdalex)
   
5. esurio

THAT'S PRETTY DAMN GOOD ODDS.

True. Your RB argument is good. Did Ythan claim D4 or D3 though? I forget.

I've seen a Sensor-type once before. Once. I'll think about it.

BUT, I really like the pianist/esurio idea going down here.
But I think we can do this: I'm thinking a *new* voting bloc headed by lew and us.
Voting Bloc: Everyone who isn't on the list Pinky gave.

Can everyone else get down with that?
So with 5 on the list, we have 5 in the alliance: lew, TMH, Bunny, Kdub, Pinky.
And with 10 alive its 6 to lynch, yes? So the bloc is good good good.

[Kdub]

PatB's claim seems legit. The only thing that gives me a bit of doubt is that it seems somewhat lucky for scum to have targeted him last night (which just happened to be an even night) as opposed to any other player, but I feel that scum-PatB would have claimed one-shot to avoid that potential complication. If he's telling the truth, thil is definitely scum.

GW, your theory had better be damn good because you are next if thil flips scum.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: thil

[GhostWriter]

If he flips scum, it still works for me., If he flips town, it still works for me. Or he doesn't flip and someone else (outside of me) does instead, it still works for me. Like I said, either a claim today, or we simply move into tomorrow through a lynch. Only way to screw it up is for a no lynch, and anyone pushing that will most likely be the lynch for the day, so that's unlikely to happen. If I'm wrong on my theory, I just have to find a new angle to attack this from.

[GhostWriter]

Actually, no, I probably do need to share this. However, I am currently at a party. A rather boring one, or I wouldn't be here on my phone instead of enjoying the party. I won't get home until late, and I'll go to work in the morning. However, I shall be back to give a post after work tomorrow. Kindly do not end the day before that.

[Kdub]

Very well, I'll hear what you've got to say.

UNVOTE:

[lewarcher82]

oh god other breadcrumbs... uhm...

Too many event, presented in a way too chaotic way. I need to think.

I have made a case on weird and that is where my votes remains until: (a) gw posts his theory and (b) weird reacts.

besides: kdub was really hasty to put his vote on thil after all his support to the thiltown party. How cme? Huh wait: lew is voting weird and suggesting that they may be scumbuddies.

[wierdalexv]

Claim: Aurora Unit 242, Even Night Sensor

Roleblocked last night, but Night 2 results - 3 anti-town players on the Tragedy wagon.

Tragedy

- 10 - Pinky and the Brain,

SSBF

, thil13, mb53, GhostWriter, crazypianist1116,

Dekes

, esuriospiritus,

Ythan

,

danakillsu

- (L-0)

Hmm...an even night sensor??? There's no restriction to how many nights you can use this?

GUYS, WE HAVE A

TON

MORE SCUM TO TAKE DOWN, AT LEAST THAT'S WHAT I'M THINKING.

Sensor's are, IMO, the strongest role their is. I looked at Simpson's mafia, and there was a 2-Shot sensor. THIS SENSOR COMPLETELY DESTROYED THE SCUM.

Also, one of thil or PatB is most likely lying. THEY BOTH CLAIMED TO BE ROLEBLOCKED LAST NIGHT. I don't see any reason for a town-Roleblocker to block PatB, so it would probably have to be 2 scum Roleblockers for this to be true. WHAT THE HECK IS THE POINT??? And there's probably not going to be a JK with a Mafia Doc. [Preview-Edit: I just saw that Pinky and the Brain brought this up already. Missed that the first time I read it.]

Their is no harm in me doing this.
I am Donkey Kong (DK), VT.
DK is a major character.
I was going to do this on my own accord later, but seeing as Kdub was thinking the same thing I was, I claimed now.

^This changes things a little bit...

His replacement, on the other hand, jumps in the game, skims the thread (you cannot have read 60 pages in one day) and does the easiest move ever: he votes thil.

I read the thread before replacing in.

Also: What the heck happened to part of my post???

And those are my reads. Here is my full case on thil13:
-He was lurking a ton earlier.
-He was using the newb card a little bit.
-ABSOLUTELY NO SCUMHUNTING. AT ALL. IN A 60 PAGE GAME.
-

Pine, it would be no surprise to me if there were more than one cop with the amount of people that signed up for this, so unless the mod wanted to put in every obscure role, he may have doubled roles, but that's just what I think. There very well could be another cop, or more than one doctor/vig/whatever. All I know is that my role PM says town cop...

[Then I tried to add this:]
-OMGUS
-Afraid of suspicion
-Minor AtE

I've got some examples:

Tragedy, you keep trying to make a case against someone, but you aren't even committing yourself to them.(I'm aware that this has been said before)

What exactly are you trying to accomplish by passively tunneling on me? I'd say you are just scum trying to start a wagon without being involved with the lynch.

vote: Tragedy

Is a bit of OMGUS,

@thil
Are worried about people accusing you of OMGUS?

yes I'm worried, since it pretty much led to my mislynch on the first game I played on this site...

Worried about suspicion,

Right now my reads fit in with the group, and just listing them out would rehash what has already been said.

Since the two lynches we've had have both been town, I'm thinking the scum are among the people who are lurking (If you want to be a jerk and call me out on this, go ahead, it should make you look more town) but clearly all of them couldn't be.

Fence-sitting, while trying to deflect from it,

I'm aware... but I don't have much to say either. I'm not quite that good at post analysis as of yet, and any tell that you guys might pick up, I probably wouldn't notice.

Noob card,

If that's what the rest of the town chooses, I will, and then I will enjoy watching you guys squirm.

Every point of yours falls only on one condition, that I am scum. Since you are incredibly, unbelievable WRONG, you don't have a valid case.

And minor Appeal to Emotion.

[And then I wrote:]

LYNCH THIS GUY. PLEASE.

VOTE: thil13

So yeah. Dunno what happened.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
So now that I'm sick of writing, I just wanna ask: Do you want me to do a Bandwagon analysis today or wait until we have more flips?

[Bunnylover]

DemonHybrid, GhostWriter, crazypianist1116, esuriospiritus.
With Pinky information, we should be lynching someone from the list above ^.

@Pinky: I don't understand your logic to lynch Thil. Your list consist of 6 people who are un-confirmed town, one been Thil. You want to lynch the uncountered Cop instead of one of the other 5 players? That logic doesn't make sense to me.

Vote: DemonHybrid

[lewarcher82]

GUYS, WE HAVE A TON MORE SCUM TO TAKE DOWN, AT LEAST THAT'S WHAT I'M THINKING.

a TON more than what??? We can have 1, 2, or 3 --> ML, if we have 4 we are on mylo. 5 would be game over.

Think better next time.

Yes, at first glance either thil or pinky are lying... which worries me a lot because:
- why would a scum-pinky post this bullshit? It could only harm him;
- stll, I don't think thil is scum.

So I have no idea what is happening, but this "fork" implies to pick between two players I don't want to lynch. TMH, what do you think?

ergo: let's move back to you, weird... you pushed submit and half your post went lost? Or did you just have to make up some stuff cause your case on thil was insufficient? I know better than thinking long walls=town, boy. Yes, post your wagon analysis. You may convince me you are not mafia. In which case you are probably the second anti-town killing party (sk?) which I strongly believe was hidden in the voting bloc for reasons that are entirely contained in this thread.

@thil: who do you think is scum? Make a clear statement.

[The Master Hand]

@weird: Your response to our case is enlightening.

@lew: Not sure I know what you mean by fork. The Patb vs thil thing sucks, I agree with that. Overall, my town read on patb is higher than my town read on thil (Andrius might disagree). This is why I think its better to vote weird, who is scummy regardless of any claims, before forming an opinion on what happened b/w the two of them. If by some strange occurance, cp/weird doesn't flip scum....well, that may change my judgement.

-Toast

[jmj3000]

Mod posting from phone: vote count to come tonight when I get home from work.

[esuriospiritus]

In which case you are probably the second anti-town killing party (sk?) which I strongly believe was hidden in the voting bloc for reasons that are entirely contained in this thread.

!!!!

Actually this makes a

lot

of sense to me now that you mention it. I've held a town read on crazypianist because I happen to know he is super obvious about having buddies when he's scum, and wasn't seeing that. TMH (who, if PatB is right pretty much has to be town, despite my earlier read on them as a thil-buddy) has held a scum read on crazypianist for other meta reasons. If we're

both

right on our meta reads, he doesn't have partners but he's still scum.

I wholeheartedly support a voting bloc of the people not on the tragedy wagon, as balance wise probably all our remaining anti-town are people who were on that wagon. I'd still prefer a thil lynch over a weird lynch because he has the 50/50 going way against him, not to mention his overt scumminess throughout the game, but I could certainly live with either.

[Pinky and the Brain]

UNVOTE: for GW's theory.

Thinking about it, I suppose at this point we are looking to take out any SK rather than Mafia as to minimise NKs and maximise mislynches.

thil admittedly makes a lot less sense as a SK than Mafia, so I am actually wondering if it's better to spare him for today and lynch him tomorrow instead.