Mafiascum.net

SO here is how I see it.

There were 3 bad factions and now there are 2

Flips
2 grits goons plus a grit traitor 1 shot BP
1 munitions goon
???

So with 1 team completely wiped (I can only assume so. I cant imagine a 4 person scum team with 3 factions with what we have left... unless the rest of you are all scum, which is mind boggling) This gives us a good idea of what to expect with the other scum teams.

With 11 people alive, if the other teams follow the same exact setup, it means we would have 5 scum left (seems unlikely)

Im thinking the munitions scum team may consist of a goon + Strongman (and only be 2 ppl)
And the third team could be the same OR consist of 2 goons and a traitor.


I saw the SK theory and Im not sure waht to think about it at the moment. Is a strongman so good in this game where it would be balanced as a 1 person negative faction?

I think about the SKtheorie because symetrical scumteam are more balance then asymetrical.
Giving Strongman + X-shot BP is somethink I can see as posible.
I am thinking about if we should massclaim BP or not.

There are 2 players who aren't strongman btw, Vaxkiller and Austerity, so they can't be the ones who killed The Brie.

theta do you have anything to say about the game today?

I'm kind of ignoring the potential SK shenanigans (though I think it is fairly likely there is one, especially compared to the chance of there being a vig) until we have another munitions scum flip b/c hunting for them is just hunting for scum anyway except without looking for partner connections and that eventual munitions flip is probably going to inform whether strongman is something to look for specifically to find the SK or not.

I was expecting other people to shoot by this point but I'll go ahead and say I'll shoot on friday if nobody else has by then. I'm not going to give a shit about people's readslists in general but if you have someone you STRONGLY think are likely to be town/scum then mention it and why if you haven't already and I'll keep that in mind.

is that a "I'll have decided on Friday who to shoot but it could be one of several so discussion" or "I've decided who I'm gonna shoot and will probably shoot them tomorrow"

asking for a friend

well friday's not tomorrow so not exactly the first one

I'd like more words and opinions that aren't readslists before then but I've got a very few people in mind of who I'm very likely going to shoot and then push for other people to shoot whoever of them I don't afterwards.

SK's are not usually expected to have the same win chance as scum, so a strongman SK would make sense.

I'd like to hear some more opinions on my plan as well. Even though scum don't have to follow through, they can't avoid being outed, so it still seems worth it.

austerity did you miss the bit where I told you that the existence of bulletproofs completely fucks it up

We still have one claimed bp alive and certainly there's unclaimed too. Regardless of the arguable point it could easily be manipulated by scum, the system simply wouldn't work.

@Austerity - given how many people read Taly as town yesterday, the possible bulletproofs left in the game (SK/traitor if the teams are identical and potentially those from town too) and the ability of scum to push their potential scumbuddy higher on that list, frankly I think it's the easiest way we have to hand the game to scum.

I DO think that people should keep in mind the one and maybe two people that they want to be alive at the end of the game and push hard to others for them to stay alive today, but I think actually trying to organize people to vote on scum->town and then order it and then follow that exactly is garbage.

In post 1529, Gammagooey wrote:well friday's not tomorrow so not exactly the first one

I'd like more words and opinions that aren't readslists before then but I've got a very few people in mind of who I'm very likely going to shoot and then push for other people to shoot whoever of them I don't afterwards.

Have you got a specific few people to name or is it basically what you've stated before?

I just would like some discussion up in here there's been a lot more people just throwing their independent ideas out rather than actual talking. Also I have an inkling your target is me and would like you to not do that but can't really discuss any potentially misled thoughts on me without knowing what they are

In post 1534, Davsto wrote:

In post 1529, Gammagooey wrote:well friday's not tomorrow so not exactly the first one

I'd like more words and opinions that aren't readslists before then but I've got a very few people in mind of who I'm very likely going to shoot and then push for other people to shoot whoever of them I don't afterwards.

Have you got a specific few people to name or is it basically what you've stated before?

I just would like some discussion up in here there's been a lot more people just throwing their independent ideas out rather than actual talking. Also I have an inkling your target is me and would like you to not do that but can't really discuss any potentially misled thoughts on me without knowing what they are

If it's possible I'd want light_ganski to be the last person alive in the entire game. I've posted about it plenty before when people mentioned her as a potential shot because I think that every bit of it is zany paranoia about how scum might shoot their partner even though I think she did it in a very natural way and b/c scum shooting their partner in this setup is retarded.

Dav I don't give a shit about 95% of people's defenses because I think all decent players are going to defend themselves pretty well regardless of their alignment. If you want to decrease the chances of me shooting you go through the game and bring me the STRONGEST READS YOU CAN FIND.

tho also if you shoot munitions scum before friday that would be perfectly fine too.

I think we have at last 1 unclaimed bulletproofs left (1 traitor for team 2). And one goon left.
We have 1 player who has a very low chance on beeing groupscum (the_worst)
I think the shoot of Light_Gansky looked quite natural and I would shoot my partner in this setup either.

anyone shooting ganski today is scumclaiming too, agreed. The more I think on the timing the more I think it's just NM's Beetlejuice effect

Anyone down for a massclaim?

In post 1536, StefanB wrote:I think the shoot of Light_Gansky looked quite natural and I would shoot my partner in this setup either.

Huh?

LG shooting NM looked OK.

It just seems a lot like your entire theory on me being scum is because I have had quite a narrow view. And sure, that's true and I will not deny it, but it's a playstyle thing over a scummy thing (especially given my busy life right now with extremely important exams starting in under two weeks so I'm busy revising).

I'm just interested if it's actually a little more than that because I feel that you'd recognise that it's a playstyle rather than scum thing too.

I think the shoot of Light_Gansky looked quite natural and I shoot my partner in this setup either.
Fixed.

normally id agree with not shooting partners being a general rule in this kinda game but id shoot my partner if he were notmafia in this set up too since he's basically confirmed dead the moment he does something stupid which is instantly

I just think that light reads as town regardless of that

In post 1537, the worst wrote:anyone shooting ganski today is scumclaiming too, agreed. The more I think on the timing the more I think it's just NM's Beetlejuice effect

Anyone down for a massclaim?

Not really

I'd rather people post their opinions on who they think is strong town/scum without an easy out of "they're X so they're probscum and we should kill them" and then prob be wrong about their shitty setup speculation anyway

I might change my mind if I hit munitions scum (esp. if it happens to be a strongman) but I don't think people here are going to be good enough at interpreting setup bullshit for it to outweigh the negatives of people getting overly confident about it instead of actually doing the hard work of reading people b/c of what they've posted.

In post 1532, Davsto wrote:austerity did you miss the bit where I told you that the existence of bulletproofs completely fucks it up

I didn't miss it, but I did forget to respond to it.

I doubt that there are any unclaimed town bulletproofs, especially among the lower players on the list.

In post 1542, Davsto wrote:normally id agree with not shooting partners being a general rule in this kinda game but id shoot my partner if he were notmafia in this set up too since he's basically confirmed dead the moment he does something stupid which is instantly

I just think that light reads as town regardless of that

For that Not_Mafia lived quite a long time.

Austerity: If there are probably no unclaimed town-BP, would you agree to a massclaim BP or not?

In post 1545, StefanB wrote:

In post 1542, Davsto wrote:normally id agree with not shooting partners being a general rule in this kinda game but id shoot my partner if he were notmafia in this set up too since he's basically confirmed dead the moment he does something stupid which is instantly

I just think that light reads as town regardless of that

For that Not_Mafia lived quite a long time.

I see what you mean but you also can't just shoot immediately without reason because it doesn't really lend much credit to it. I don't necessarily think it's likely, just also don't think it's impossible

In post 1544, Austerity wrote:

In post 1532, Davsto wrote:austerity did you miss the bit where I told you that the existence of bulletproofs completely fucks it up

I didn't miss it, but I did forget to respond to it.

I doubt that there are any unclaimed town bulletproofs, especially among the lower players on the list.

Regardless of me disagreeing (I think it is more than possible for unclaimed town BPs), BPs present stop your strategy from working as it breaks the chain of player-shooting-player-below. It'll have some odd results and I don't think the net result will be protown.

Still think Lovebird is the most likely scum. Very little substance or engagement to any posts (a small burst of engagement yesterday with Taly but still little substance to that and then continued emptiness today), mostly just popping her head in to say anything ranging from single words to very surface level reads.