2 scum back up neighbors would be a strange dynamic, but i guess anything is theoretically possible. I’d need to review the Trendall slot again as well after Bugs’ flip. Frogster, Outworld and Lunar are all Town I believe.
Posted: Wed Jan 13, 2021 4:29 am
by Galron
Acknowledging day start. Don't flip. I need to catch up.
Posted: Wed Jan 13, 2021 4:35 am
by Luca Blight
Momrangal SR Trendall for most of D1 but never really pushed his elim that hard, which suggests distancing. I’m leaning away from them being partners, however, due to the timing of this vote:
On the assumption that Bugs is scum, then this would have put both of her partners as the leading two wagons, which isn’t a great place to be D1.
Posted: Wed Jan 13, 2021 4:46 am
by Luca Blight
Bugs has given away very little associative info, apart from when they turned on Lunar, which struck me as fake bussing.
This seemed a weird interaction, though:
In post 339, bugspray wrote:Trendall can you make posts that are easier to parse? I'm getting the vibe of someone who is heading for the chopping block from you and the amount of pressure on your slot is like really low
Because I didn’t get this sense at all at the time of this post. Perhaps scum who is overly aware of their partner’s scummy behavior?
Posted: Wed Jan 13, 2021 4:48 am
by Gamma Emerald
I’m probably gonna take most of today off from playing here
Posted: Wed Jan 13, 2021 4:54 am
by Frogsterking
I thought about the game in my sleep last night and the win condition from the scum team makes more sense to me now.
In post 1528, Luca Blight wrote:Bugs has given away very little associative info, apart from when they turned on Lunar, which struck me as fake bussing.
This seemed a weird interaction, though:
In post 339, bugspray wrote:Trendall can you make posts that are easier to parse? I'm getting the vibe of someone who is heading for the chopping block from you and the amount of pressure on your slot is like really low
Because I didn’t get this sense at all at the time of this post. Perhaps scum who is overly aware of their partner’s scummy behavior?
I think Bugs has adapted to their meta and expected to be killed at some point, so their strategy was setting up other easy execution slots with horrible associative tells, not necessarily survival. So the play from Bugs D2 - D3 makes sense here as their main goal was simply to set up LM and Trendall for a mis-execution so Galreon can win in the end game.
okay think for a little bit town has so much power and then they get an informed and assuming I'm also scum a backup neigbor? That's not a lot compared to what town seems to have
Posted: Wed Jan 13, 2021 7:26 am
by Frogsterking
In post 1531, bugspray wrote:okay think for a little bit town has so much power and then they get an informed and assuming I'm also scum a backup neigbor? That's not a lot compared to what town seems to have
I think ur backup neighbor traitor and Galron is scum pr and town has three prs, two investigatives one of which is unreliable, and one bodyguard.
Posted: Wed Jan 13, 2021 7:29 am
by Frogsterking
Reji should prob just out their report
Posted: Wed Jan 13, 2021 7:37 am
by joqiza
Like I said, not the most comfortable when it comes to setup spec on this site. With that mind, having a mafia traitor and a town traffic analyst in the same setup seems a bit bastard, because the TA could mis-clear the traitor, if I'm understanding the mechanics correctly. If I were hosting a closed game on my home site and included those two roles, I'd want to make sure to inform a townie of the presence of a traitor.
Posted: Wed Jan 13, 2021 7:40 am
by joqiza
I suppose if it's commonly assumed meta that a traffic analyst in a setup implies a traitor, then maybe it's fine. I guess the closest comparison is having a town tracker and then having one of the mafia roles be ninja. I don't know, seems questionable to me, and I'd hesitate to do that as a mod. No one wants to lose because they assumed a report was correct and it just happened to be wrong because of some mechanical edge case.
Posted: Wed Jan 13, 2021 7:44 am
by joqiza
@Frog I've seen you talking about mafia traitor on these last few pages a lot. Are you deducing that there's a traitor just from setup spec or is there some other justification for that theory that I missed? I wouldn't really expect there to be a mafia traitor in any typical setup, since scum day-chat and associatives are such a big part of the game.
Can you see anything in the hood that might look like Galreon and Bugs are scum and communicating with each other?
Just based on the interactions in the chat, I’m decently confident that Galeron should be town :/
more so than any of bugs/luca
but eh.
I don’t think so? Galeron talked to my slot several times more than to bugs
and there are some posts that imply that Amelia might have targeted Galeron before death. (and she died as a bodyguard)
if everyone thought gal was a PR, there’s a decent chance that they could have gotten attacked :/
is traitor guaranteed to be in the setup or sth? trying to find scum based on interactions with a role that might not even exist doesn’t seem like the most effective strategy
——
anyway, I started looking through bug’s ISO in other games in my free time but haven’t gotten much out of it yet. @luca, which games were you talking about (where you read them correctly)?
I still have a lab report to finish today but I know. I’ll start working on it asap. Same with verifying bug’s meta.... (this might be actually more accurate than whatever read I could have)
Posted: Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:43 pm
by Frogsterking
If Galron isn't the third then I don't know
Posted: Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:44 pm
by Frogsterking
In post 1536, joqiza wrote:@Frog I've seen you talking about mafia traitor on these last few pages a lot. Are you deducing that there's a traitor just from setup spec or is there some other justification for that theory that I missed? I wouldn't really expect there to be a mafia traitor in any typical setup, since scum day-chat and associatives are such a big part of the game.
It could just be rumor mill and I'm sending myself on a goose chase. I think the speculation about a traitor started as soon as Bugs outed their role and increased once there were two backup neighbors sent to the hood.
Posted: Wed Jan 13, 2021 5:37 pm
by joqiza
I've done a little bit of work tonight, looking into the flipped Momrangal slot to try to evaluate partner and non-partner reads. There are certain areas I'll need to revisit.
I think one of the most important sections, which I want to review again, is the section between 974 and 1273. These are the posts where Grendel is holding his red check, and probing for AI material. He's mostly ignored during these pages. His main suspicion seems to be Luca, who, at Grendel's prompting, goes back and reviews Momrangal's slot in 1089.
Despite Grendel's suspicion, I actually think some of Momrangal's posts paint Luca in a fairly good light. In particular, her 521 and 524 read to me as though she's trying to defend her viewpoint to a townie.
Based on my first read, I also felt like Frogsterking had some decent posts in light of Momrangal's flip. Frog's 932 reads townish to me, as it would be a weird post for someone with TMI to come up with. Similarly, the part of 1323 where Frog reads Momrangal as scum motion detector feels town to me, in light of the fact that Momrangal flipped mafia informed. This is a classic towntell: FOSing scum for the wrong reasons.
Momrangal's claim of scum motion detector (1323) with a negative on OWER is itself kind of odd, if you think about it, given that Mafia Informed could not have possibly visited OWER. I would expect at least a consistent claim in terms of night visits. I guess it was probably a last-ditch effort to fish PR's.
Momrangal was fairly absent for Day 2 and for many parts of Day 1, and I think there's more information to be mined from her movements around the major Day 1 wagons. What makes me hesitate is her post here, in 331.
This is phrased in a cheeky way that indicates some element of self-consciousness. I think Momrangal was aware of how her vote might be read into and may have used it tactically. I have no idea if that means she was more likely to vote town or scum, I just think that looking at her votes involves a game of wine swaps rather than a straight look at spew. I intend to review her pushes/votes on slots such as OWER and LunarMartian later, but want to be careful in any assumptions I make there. A vote may read very differently in terms of partnered vs. non-partnered, depending on the gamestate context.
My full notes below. (disorganized)
Spoiler: Notes
Post 132 is interesting and should be revisited. Momrang townread myself, Frog, and Grendel, to start the game, so have a starting point that at least 2/3 of those slots are town. Outs a non-partner read on Lunar x my slot that, with the benefit of hindsight, shows their TMI. Worth coming back to, to think about how they treated Luna here.
Momrangal appears to be appealing to Frogsterking in a way which may indicate that slot is town.
Frogsterking addresses Momrangal in post 172
Momrangal defends my slot in 196
Momrangal votes OWER in 219 (I believe no one was on the wagon at that time). No explanation given for the vote.
Amelie asks Momrangal to explain the vote in 235.
Momrangal explains their vote in 237. Said they didn't like OWER's vote on Trendall in 237. I believe their phrasing here may be lightly indicative as to Trendall being town.
Trendall outs a TR on Momrangal, frogsterking, and NPOM in 239
Mom switches vote to "busy" (bugspray?) in 266 then immediately switched back to OWER in 267. Townreads my slot, Amelie, and Frogsterking (another 2/3+ town) in 268
OWER has a response to Momrangal in 270 that I don't really understand.
Momrangal responds to OWER in 276.
OWER responds to Momrangal in 278.
Momrangal votes my slot in 311.
Gamma and Momrangal have a light conversation starting in 312.
Momrangal votes Trendall in 325.
Worth noting at this point that Momrangal has voted a lot of different slots. They say, in 331, "Has my vote landed on scum yet?" It's a good question, and is phrased in a cheeky way that indicates some element of self-consciousness to a rereader. I think that raises the chances of WIFOM slightly.
Momrangal asks GammaEmerald to vote OWER with them in 464. Says OWER and Trendall are their top two FOSes.
A response to Luca in 466 that reads lightly (lightly) non-partnered.
Trendall responds to Momrangal's request in 470 by voting OWER, and Momrangal follows by switching their vote from Trendall to Momrangal in 471. Says, "well, ok. Your alignment should be telling after this"
Luca starts responding to Momrangal in 476.
Gamma has an interesting response to Momrangal in 489.
Momrangal responds to Luca in 521. Interxn reads non-partnered to me. Says, "Lunar and bugs just don't seem to care, their play is unchanged, unaffected no matter how much people are suspecting them. How they are playing seems NAI, I would be more interested in the person who is actually being reactive to things."
Also responds to Luca in 524. The way in which Momrangal seems invested in defending their viewpoint to Luca, makes me think Luca/Momrangal aren't partnered
I think Momrangal's post in 565 has information but I can't understand it so just making a note to come back to it.
Momrangal is absent while LunarMartian is on L-1
Momrangal has a BIZARRE post on 716. Why does Lunar's vote on Trendall bug them?? They said they could go for OWER or Trendall, which were Momrangal's two FOSes
Momrangal has another weird post to Amelie in 718 that should be revisited.
Momrangal post in 820 needs to be revisited, says they don't like Lunar for (???) something about counterwagons and bussing, bizarre post
Votes Lunar in post 821
Momrangal has a weird post about bugspray's role claim in 854. Can't tell at first glance if this is a shade or a defense--I think a defense?
Momrangal townreads bugspray based on claim in 921
Shades ORAM and Lunar Martian in 922
Momrangal in 924, "I would like to see a Lunar scum flip here" O_O
Frog's 932 is probably town, weird thing to come up with for a scum with TMI
Day 2 begins on page 961, page 39
Grendall asks for GTH reads on Momrangal in 974, reposts on 982
Gamma outs a GTH Mafia read on Momrangal on 984
Frog outs GTH Town read on Momrangal in 986
Grendall votes Momrangal in 1074
With prompting from Grendell, Luca reviews Momrangal starting on 1089
Luca asks mod to prod Momrangal in 1124.
Momrangal returns on 1187.
Momrangal votes gamma on 1244.
Grendel reveals his red check on 1273.
Momrangal claims motion detector with negative on OWER in 1310.
Frog reads Momrangal as scum motion detector in 1323
In 1354, Momrangal says, "The only plausible "guilty" that Grendel would have on my slot was that I went somewhere and it's pretty annoying that he automatically assumed scum, instead town PR and outting a PR in the process"
Posted: Wed Jan 13, 2021 5:52 pm
by joqiza
I suppose there is one mechanical edge case where Momrangal could have actually visited OWER n1: if she led the nightkill on OWER, and Amelie also happened to bodyguard OWER. Lol. I wouldn't expect OWER be the nightkill target though, and for him to ALSO be bodyguarded n1 in addition to that, seems really unlikely.
Depending on what exactly mafia was informed of, there doesn't seem to be much of a reason for them to assume that the town PR would be a tracker, rather than a cop. So this line of inquiry (trying to figure out why she claimed scum motion detector, in particular) is probably a dead end.
Posted: Wed Jan 13, 2021 6:14 pm
by joqiza
In post 1524, Lunar Martian wrote:Galron is kind of obvTown. It's probably Gamma, but otherwise maybe Luca.
Can you elaborate on these reads, btw? What makes Galron "obvTown" ?
Posted: Wed Jan 13, 2021 6:21 pm
by joqiza
Really the only thing that makes me doubt the non-partnered read between Momrangal and Luca is actually the hammer on 1379 and the follow-up comment on 1380. That was kind of random and I'd like to hear Luca elaborate on what exactly he meant by "Couldn't resist." It's just an odd comment to me and the hammer seemed a bit sudden.
Posted: Wed Jan 13, 2021 6:26 pm
by joqiza
To be be clear, by the way, I'm not writing off anyone as simply town or scum simply due to partner interxns. That's quite risky, especially when I don't have meta on anyone. But one of my favorite parts of this game is looking at associatives & it's a natural starting point for me.
Posted: Wed Jan 13, 2021 6:47 pm
by joqiza
I think main thing on the agenda is to figure out if Momrangel's defense of bugspray's role claim in 854 and 921 reads partnered or whether she was defending a townie from a place of TMI. Other people pointed out that bugspray's claim of back-up neighbor was probably true, but bugs may have have been simply claiming their scum role: mafia back-up neighbor. Momrangel seems to skip that logical step and instead just posits that bugspray's role claim makes them town.
Posted: Wed Jan 13, 2021 6:50 pm
by Gamma Emerald
If you weren’t conftown I’d be all over these posts, they feel so faux-productive imo
Posted: Wed Jan 13, 2021 6:53 pm
by joqiza
Well I guess that's frustrating because I'm trying to dig into the game and make sense of it. Do you disagree with any of my points?
Posted: Wed Jan 13, 2021 6:58 pm
by joqiza
Saying my analysis is faux-productive implies it's not productive. You're basically saying, "yeah this analysis is so shitty I wish I could scumread you for it." I subbed into the middle of a game and I'm trying to actually engage with it, so if you feel my points aren't worthwhile I'd at least like to hear why.
Posted: Wed Jan 13, 2021 7:01 pm
by joqiza
Like, really, what is the point of your post? Sorry if I'm triggered but if I really am, apparently conftown fypov, why bother making 1546? What benefit does that post provide except to discourage me from trying?
