Mini Normal 2232 -ENDGAME

[Andresvmb]

Now, you admitting it is interesting.

[Kazyan]

Well, yeah, I'm admitting it because there's no purpose anymore. Scum clearly doesn't care, and going through with the Supersaint gambit would be anti-town. I get that you don't want me and Nathan driving the game today, but I'm pretty sure we're both town, so I'm comfortable with doing that if it means actually catching a mafia member this time.

[Andresvmb]

It’s not that I don’t want you guys driving the execution - it’s that I want a robust debate so that if we get it wrong today, then it’s easier to figure out what is going on. We do no have many opportunities left at solving the game. So we can’t just mindlessly execute someone today.

[Andresvmb]

^not have*

[Andresvmb]

I do think GMo could easily be Scum actually. I might be letting the ridiculousness of the overall play affect my read of the slot when they’ve clearly done absurdly anti-Town things.

[Kazyan]

Alright, cool. I've been living with this "claim Supersaint at E-1 and watch scum squirm" plan in my head for, what, two weeks now(?), so it's probably more opaque than it feels to me. If there are any implications you guys are confused about with that in mind, let me know.

Since I'm at home again, here's my full notes with some redundancies trimmed, but I think I've actually shared everything on DGB that came to mind.

Spoiler: Disorganized pile o' notes

Votes on our miselims:

Day 1
ALICE: Titus;GrandpaMo;Kazyan;Dwlee99*;Nathann;Enchant;Jolyne;
vs
KAZYAN: ssbm_Kyouko;Andresvmb;Ythan;DrippingGoofball;
Off-wagon: gera, Alice
(*Wanted Enchant. Specifically did not want Titus.)

Day 2
TITUS: ssbm_Kyouko;Andresvmb;Nathann;Kazyan;DGB;GrandpaMo
Off-wagon: Titus, Enchant
Not Voting: Dwlee, gera, Ythan

Thread of consistency from Dwlee--didn't want Titus on Day 1, but didn't sneak onto the wagon on Day 2, which it would have been so easy to do as scum.

---

DGB's reads on day 2: Performed a reread. Thought of Enchant as town, suggested Ythan+Titus as a scumteam, then decided on GMo+Titus. Thinks of Dwlee as town.
Suggests for Enchant to vote for GMo...instead of Titus? Huh?

---

The scumteam is probably not very WIFOM-y, since they killed Jolyne on day one instead of going for Nathan or something.

We could expect their actions to be direct.

---

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12969430
This is GMo's #1370. Says he'll die tonight, because the three scummiest people don't believe him...when when he gets to me, he brushes it off with a "don't worry your pretty little head" kind of comment. Doesn't bother to compare me to the others.

What perspective is this?

If GMo is town, he thinks the scum are trying to get him miselimed.
If GMo is scum, he's trying to discredit the doubters. Once again, it's be wacky if he were partners with Dwlee, because he's hard-defending himself and Dwlee in the face of being doubted into a corner by four people. It's like throwing his scumbuddy in as a bonus prize to whoever catches him, because GMo and Dwlee are the ones going all-in on the Watcher theory.

It's super interesting to me that there were four doubts on GMo's claim, but only one vote, and that vote came from Titus (who flipped town). I was trying to unconfuse myself at the time, but DGB and Enchant are, like,

confident

that GMo was BS'ing, but they held off voting! DGB even went for Titus, while telling people to vote for GMo,

like it was trying to score that Titus miselim

.

---

TODO:

Jabber at gera and Ythan today. They do not have much alignment-indicative content that I can understand.

---

Titus: One scum early, one late

Factions:

Dwlee + GMo
DGB + Enchant (also hard-aligned on Andre being scum)
Everyone else?

GMo is setting up "1 scum between Titus and Enchant"
DGB says the scumteam is GMo and Titus. "I'd vote GPMo" while sitting on a Titus vote
DGB calls me LAWKTOWN, but then really shades me when I have a hot take on them. Dwlee, meanwhile, tries to clear things up and figure out how I'm thinking.
DGB has no sense of continuity in its thoughts--it's acting like everything a person does is its first read on them, and never expresses any considerations of prior reads.
No E-1 announcement

---

Who believes GMo's claim?
Yes: gera, GMo, Dwlee
???: Kyo
No: Kazyan, DGB, Titus, Enchant, Ythan

---

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12959312
This is my #1019, where I stated that I'd claim at E-1. I'm at E-2, here. What happens thereafter is pretty quick--Dwlee and Nathan unvote, and then Enchant publicly goes to bed. Enchant was around shortly before my E-1 promise and shortly thereafter, so it's reasonable to think the Enchant saw this and decided not to pile that E-1 bote onto the wagon. This is important, because scum have a serious incentive to get me to claim, but town doesn't want that on Day 1. Enchant looks town, here.

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p12960819
Later, here, I get put at E-2 in DGB's post #1183. The people that could put me at E-1 are: Titus (flipped as town), GrandpaMo, Dwlee99, Nathann, Enchant, and gerantim. All of those people check in and none of them do so. Suggests that both scum could have been on my wagon, which are these people: ssbm_Kyouko, Andresvmb, Ythan, and DrippingGoofball.

-----

READS:


DGB - scum!

Ythan - signs point to Ythan as a reasonable partner for DGB

GMo - my heart says "powerscum" but my evidence says "powertown"
Enchant - probably town? idk I'm just not feeling this as scum anymore
Andre - probably town? Sort after we deal with DGB; low-key deepwolf
gera - probably town; would have great restraint to stay off all of these wagons

Dwlee - town
Kyo - town
Nathan - town

Andre, you're the town's expert on what the scumcase is for GMo. Is the Watcher fakeclaim anti-town, and how/how not?

[Kazyan]

Mistake in the notes pile: DGB shades me when I have a hot take on

it

(You're scum but I'm gonna get your pronouns right)

[Not Known 15]

Vote Count 3.2

Not Voting(7)geraintm;Ythan;DrippingGoofball;GrandpaMo;Titus;Enchant;Dwlee99;

DrippingGoofball (1)Kazyan;

Kazyan (1)Nathann;

Dwlee99 (0)

Enchant

MargotRosa

(0)

GrandpaMo (0)Andresvmb;

Andresvmb (0)

Ythan

JacksonVirgo

(0)

geraintm (0)

No Elimination (0)

Nathann (0)

With 9 alive it is 5 to execute.

Day 2 will end in (expired on 2021-09-08 04:33:00) or when an elimination has been achieved.

[Enchant]

About Andre question, i don't know. If you are town, and townread me, well you doing it right. I saw more bizarre reasons for reads.

About fakeclaims. I don't think it's anti-town to fakeclaim to draw NK. But i simple don't believe you do that with common sense or any sense at all.
For example, why fake Supersaint and expect to be killed? Supersaint is mostly -2 townies via miselim. WHY NIGHTKILL THIS PRESENT? After town literally forced to skip elim to make even amount of players as well. +1 NK. Ergo: -3 Townies just because of supersaint.

Idk why you simple didn't fake 1-Shot Cop or something like that like i did. Yes i made crumbs as well.

[geraintm]

and will be believing it for the rest of the game.

This bit seems like a weird thing to tack on but I'm still not really sure how to interpret it.

it was just meant ot mean "i will take this as fact for the rest of the game and use it to base my reads on, unless contradicted by future info"
I didnt think i needed to put the obvious qualifer on

Shocking that GrandpaMo was lying about their role. What else is new.

Does GrandpaMo have form with this?

Shocking that GrandpaMo was lying about their role. What else is new.

dont say things like this, i'll start thinking i am cleverer than i am.
but do keep saying nice things about me

The reason I’m alive and Kyouko was killed (we were both read as Town by Jolyne, and I also TR Kyouko), is because I was somewhat pocketed by Nathann. That’s a theory. Maybe wrong, but that’s an idea.

GrandpaMo’s atrocious play is never getting NK’ed. Consistently lying about their role is spectacularly aggravating, but probably not what I expect Scum to be doing. geraintm is Town, and Enchant’s healthy skepticism and pointed remarks make them Town in my book.

There’s just not that many options from where I stand.

if grandpamo is town, i don't see them touching them with a NK, scum must hope they get themselves eliminated for their play.
If GrandpaMo is scum, then well played...


the posts leading up to 1480 from Andres and Nathann - i am reading Andres as town and Nathann's vote feels like trying to get out from under pressure and deflect elsewhere. i dunno, i do realise this is just me reading into people's play what i want to.

BTW, with the fake watcher claim this does feel a really, really flat town with barely any roles around

@Kayzan 1520 and the claim of VT
Is everyone in this game who is town trying to get themselves eliminated by faking roles? ANd none of you succeeded? Makes anyone who does actually have a role feel a little better i guess unless their role was really odd and we had an actual Vengeful or something.

I think i would like to push them towards town lean, but their votes are problematic - they were on Alice and Titus and on the Enchant wagon. I think my town lean pile is Andres and GrandpaMo.
scum pile is still likely nathann and then Kayzan - anyone know of games where kayzan has planned fake town roles as scum before?

The two people I want to hear from right now are gera and Enchant. geraintm has repeadly expressed sentiments about waiting until there's more to analyze, Enchant is the only person who consistently scumread Andre on Day 1. I'd like their takes on whether this argument is headed somewhere helpful or down the drain. I'll talk about it if it helps, but I just really want DGB gone.

i have tried looking at the wagons.

Oh, just looked up what supersaint was - it is a vengeful variant i've never come across before. my god this game will be very funny if Mod has put an actual vengeful in the game

@ kayzan 1530 - hmmm, this is pretty good if coming from scum. i am fairly on board with kayzan as likely town

"gera - probably town; would have great restraint to stay off all of these wagons"

^^^ if i am scum and town have managed to quickly eliminate two townies without my involvement, then town is just plain doomed and you should all go home now.

About Andre question, i don't know. If you are town, and townread me, well you doing it right. I saw more bizarre reasons for reads.

About fakeclaims. I don't think it's anti-town to fakeclaim to draw NK. But i simple don't believe you do that with common sense or any sense at all.
For example, why fake Supersaint and expect to be killed? Supersaint is mostly -2 townies via miselim. WHY NIGHTKILL THIS PRESENT? After town literally forced to skip elim to make even amount of players as well. +1 NK. Ergo: -3 Townies just because of supersaint.

Idk why you simple didn't fake 1-Shot Cop or something like that like i did. Yes i made crumbs as well.

so has evreyone claimed to have crumbed a fake role now?

Enchant - crumbed 1 shot cop
Kayzan - crumbed supersaint {< i town read}
grandpamo - faked watcher {<- I town read}

am i missing anything from the rest?

Dwlee99
geraintm;
Ythan;
Andresvmb; {< i town read}
Nathann; {< i scum read}
DrippingGoofball;

[Kazyan]

About Andre question, i don't know. If you are town, and townread me, well you doing it right. I saw more bizarre reasons for reads.

About fakeclaims. I don't think it's anti-town to fakeclaim to draw NK. But i simple don't believe you do that with common sense or any sense at all.
For example, why fake Supersaint and expect to be killed? Supersaint is mostly -2 townies via miselim. WHY NIGHTKILL THIS PRESENT? After town literally forced to skip elim to make even amount of players as well. +1 NK. Ergo: -3 Townies just because of supersaint.

Idk why you simple didn't fake 1-Shot Cop or something like that like i did. Yes i made crumbs as well.

That's the neat part--the plan was to not fakeclaim until I was at E-1 and thus actually going to die. I'd just keep softing that I have some sort of role and let fear of the unknown do the rest. "-3 townies" is exactly why scum would do everything in their power to weasel out of hammering me, and why the actual hammerer would become conftown.

[Nathann]

I suddenly got more confident towards the end of Day 1 once I figured out a fakeclaim: Supersaint. All I'd have to do was spin some stuff about how 92 was actually letting the mod know I understood how the role worked after a bunch of PM'd "are you sure this is Normal?" kind of questions

The actual joke here is that Supersaint is, in fact, not Normal.

[Nathann]

@Andres, what's your thoughts on Enchant? I get the idea behind "DGB did this one Townie thing on Day 1", but (I think?) you're Town on Enchant, and I don't see why?

[Kazyan]

I like gera's thought processes, now that I can see them, so I'm totally willing to give you a complete townpass until tomorrow.

The way I see it, Andre/Nathan/gera/Dwlee/Enchant have so much towniness going for them that I can afford to put all of our chips on the scumteam being in {DGB, Ythan, GMo}, in that order. I think we're in a really good spot for gamesolving, here.

I don't like the idea of us putting Nathann back on the table, but I admit I haven't been paying close enough attention to him, so a close examination would be informative. Let's do it.

[Nathann]

VOTE: Ythan

I get a feeling this is a game where the Town is cannibalizing each other while Scum is chilling on the sidelines. And Kazyan's explanations just feel too convoluted for Scum. Maybe it's stupid to

then

be voting off-wagon, but whatever, I'm still waiting on GranpaMo and DGB to impress anyway.

[Dwlee99]

Everyone in my idea of a lim pool feels like limbait which makes me think I should consider reeval but also it might just be that easy.

[Dwlee99]

Thinking to when there was a whole day phase of arguing amongst town in Chrono trigger and then we killed the lim bait and they were the last mafia lol

[Enchant]

Let me quess, it's Me/GPo and Kazyan?

[Dwlee99]

No, you/DGB/Ythan/gpo

[Enchant]

I quessed 50% i consider this a win.

[Dwlee99]

I agree with Nathan that Kaz feels too convoluted for scum. Dgb and Ythan are lurkers. Gpo did a weird fake claim role fish thing and you're well you

[Enchant]

What you mean by me mean me?

[Dwlee99]

You're always scummy imo. I don't feel a substantial difference between what I've seen of you as scum when I read our iso in the micro, the hydra game, or here

[Enchant]

I can give you some games where i am town and not scummy, but it's more matter of luck, not of my efforts.

[Dwlee99]

Oh there was also the cult game lol