Mafiascum.net

TOWN BLOCK //
Clidd

TOWN LEAN //
Hectic

ROLE CLAIMS //
Wake - Voted Alo D1, Voted Creature D2, (considered Lucky D3)
Lucky/Dave - Voted Alo D1, Voted Creature D2, (considered Wake D3)

VT CLAIMS //
Profii - Voted Chem D1, Voted Creature D2, (considered Wake D3 and Lucky D2)
Bob - Voted Dave D1, Voted Creature D2
Adorable/Cat - Voted Chem D1, Voted Gamma D2

I would be highly surprised if clidd-Alo is scum this game. It’s highly unlikely that the only two wagons with any semblence of pressure on day 1 are both on scum.

Additionally since the replace-in, i’ve found myself agreeing with clidd for the most part. His reads in 1341 are similar to my own reads prior to Gamma flip

Clidd also does somewhat of a slip in 1493 where he uses a post from his personal PT that has broken post links. it’s technically possible clidd went through the effort of creating one as scum just to do that, but i think it’s vastly more likely clidd is just town here

Hectic and I downplayed our townreads on each other as a tactic to survive longer and then surprise scum later. I originally wrote that with the intention of downplaying his towniness. My actual townread on Hectic was quite strong. I think the lack of scum daytalk means Hectic couldn't have coordinated that bus with tictac. That, and he has been really helpful in my hood. I'll use this to post Hectic's last thoughts instead.

I shared a bunch of this analysis i've been making with him last night. Originally i didn't even consider the thought of both Wake and Lucky being town. Hectic believed it was most likely that there's two scum in profii/adorable/bob. Wake and Lucky can both be town since Gamma and sircake's roles are negative utility. He also agreed with my analysis on Wake being town.

he made a reminder for later, check out how Wake played his previous scum game.

He said that he'll spend more time trying to solve this game if he is alive tomorrow.

And finally, when i asked him not to leave me, he said he wasn't planning on it. The last thing he posted was an ascii art of mario holding a bat

If wake is scum, why would he out davesaz and I in the main thread? And then he begins to push davesaz (or me as an alternative). After either of our flips, he’d look bad, but he’d probably then push the other PR. Even best-case scenario and Wake manages to mislynch both dave and I, was it worth the unnecessary risk? This is a negative gambit for scum!Wake unless it’s for WIFOM.


1276 - Wake would prefer to lynch dave/Morning but will compromise on Creature

Wake is convinced at this point in the game that either dave or I am scum and finds it unlikely we’re all three town. This is odd, but i think Wake does this simply because he thinks there’s a limited amount of PRs from his personal setup spec.


1346 - Wake claims that he watched davesaz be visited by HoldenGolden


1352 - Wake rebukes dave’s post saying that Wake is town because dave survived. Wake reminds dave that dave is not confirmed town

I think that post by dave looks bad now and Wake is correct here


1380 - Wake proposes finding scum by checking who refused to join the tictac/chemist wagon and also joined the creature wagon. Wake thinks davesaz-Lucky is scum. He has lesser suspicions on Hectic, Morning, and Gamma. He votes davesaz

Again, this tunnel on dave seems like it’d be a bad move as scum. Just as revealing dave and I would be a bad move as scum


1385 - Wake asks dave if he needs time formulating a full claim

Babysitter was a claim that made a lot of sense. Dave did wait to claim it, which in hindsight could be because he was uncomfortable with fake claiming. I did not really think that was a possibility at the time though, Wake seems to have an eye for this thing apparently. That or he’s just scum making stuff up


1386 - Wake calls dave’s rage fake

It didn’t really come across as fake to me. Again, Wake saw dave’s likelihood of being scum as high before most of the game. I wonder if this is due to an ulterior motive, but like, it doesn’t seem like a good play if Wake is scum. But then again, Wake revealing 2 PRs wasn’t a good play as town either.

Overall I heavily lean on Wake being town. Unless i unearth a previous scumgame of wake pulling a WIFOM tactic like this

I think setup-wise, lucky is more likely to be scum. Watcher can somewhat fulfill the role of a town protective.

Actually reading through this, all Lucky did was death tunnel push Gamma. Not really scummy on its own but seems a bit narrowminded. He seems to justify this as he believes that gamma is 100% scum and he’s going to get nightkilled


1435/1453/1457/1462 - Lucky seems pretty convinced already that Gamma is scum

This is how i felt yesterday as well. But i had a huge case built up from previous days. Lucky had just replaced in. it’s odd that he already felt so strongly about Gamma, but i originally chalked it up to him thinking that he'd die at night due to his role and that'd be it


1474/1485/1489 - Lucky spends many posts inquiring why Morning is town in this setup.

In the event that lucky is scum, this makes sense. I’d expect the scum of Lucky/Wake to push one of the other PRs. Wake is pushing Lucky, while Lucky is pushing me. Wake has consistently been suspicious of dave since d2. For Wake i actually see it as more of a town thing though. if wake is scum, it'd look bad if he immediately got a town PR lynched


1501 - Lucky feels clidd accidentally confirmed himself as town

I tend to agree here. Clidd is 95% town


1514 - Lucky tells Gamma that he hasn’t read his play. He’s just following the votes

Does Lucky always solely rely on VCA? telling Gamma he hasn’t even read his posts is a bit of a slap in the face for gamma lol. I could see this potentially being an easy pass for scum!Lucky to vote Gamma without having to justify it so much.


1533 - Lucky basically says “that’s it?” to Gamma

Yeah pretty much.

1414 - Profii theorizes the scumteam is {Wake, Hectic}
those are my two of my highest townreads man!

1426 - Profii questions why the N2 wasn't blocked.
I'm unsure what he means by this. Is this surprise that there was a death N2?

1494/1498 - Profii considers scum neighbourizer being in the setup to grant scum a way to have daytalk
At first, i didn't think much of this. But now that i'm considering it more, that sounds like a weird way to design a setup.

additionally, I do not like the suspicion on Hectic that he creates with this theory. It both requires a scum neighbourizer being in the setup (which isn't here), AND it requires that the scum neighbourizer recruits scum. from town!profii PoV, that'd be a large stretch to suspect hectic

Overall i feel like trying to incorporate hectic into the lynchpool looks forced. Hectic back and forth on his profii read quite a bit, but last night he decided that in profii/bob/adorable, profii is most likely. We didn't get down to discussing it but im starting to see why he thought that

1536 - "I said to myself I'd tunnel Wake for most of the day and my continued survival would be a sign that scum want me to continue to do so and I'm wrong but I'm already bored of that strategy."

I am really confused why profii is going after Wake in the first place. But not only that, profii is considering that his continuing to be alive could be intentional in order for him to attack Wake.

i feel like this might be a way for him to comfortably tunnel Wake but also sound like he was having an internal struggle over it if wake is lynched/dies. What causes town!profii to think he would die if Wake is scum?