MT 2219: The Battle of Calculasia - Endgame

[MathBlade]

WTF was my reaction to being alive today.

Exactly. It's just bad scum play. The one person who kept talking about a supposed vig was probably more afraid of that than you. I thought Math was tossing around vig just to create a muddle, but it looks to me like he probably actually believed it and thought it was xlos when with all the power that's been shown a vig would just break the game. Especially after you claimed multi shot.

It's not bad scum play. DGB gets no extra result tonight and keeping it alive means paranoia around it. It's lylo regardless. Meanwhile Xlos was never getting voted out today, even if it was lylo.

It’s posts like this that make me wonder if Titus is scum.
She’s better at mech reasoning as town.

Assume DGB is town and shot.
Then Xlos is in the game as confirmed town (because let’s be real godfather while possible is not probable)
When confirmed town is in the game scum cannot manipulate elo and it’s out of their hands.

Xlos had to be the kill if DGB is town to keep elo flexibility and Xlos has to be the kill to protect DGB if it is scum.

Xlos was pretty much good as flipped soon as A50 hammered unless scum which then is an easy solve between DGB and Xlos.

Pedit: Kinda sure we have to hit scum here Titus. Not sure what sitting on where you think I am wrong helps if you’re town.

I am going to bed but all y’all are sus.

[Titus]

I'm not voting Math unless it gets to 3p lylo.
I'm not inclined to vote DGB.

That leaves Wheme or Galron.

This is an AND.

I am town. If you say you’re not voting me (which the only reason not to vote me is that I am town if you think I am scum you vote me). If you are “not inclined” to vote DGB means you’re townreading it.

If you don’t think it’s Wheme and Galron then you’re not actually positing anything useful and this is hot air or DGB is your buddy.

No. It's an OR. I am still considering DGB scum as a possibility. However, if DGB is scum, it locks itself into a bad position in elo tomorrow. So I'm not inclined to eliminate there.

That leaves Wheme or Galron as the places I'm inclined to vote today. I have a strong preference for one over the other, but I am sitting on that.

[Titus]

Pedit: Kinda sure we have to hit scum here Titus. Not sure what sitting on where you think I am wrong helps if you’re town.

I have no way to answer this, but read my posts carefully. Suppose I am right about why everyone has died. Suppose you're wrong about why T3 died. Come up with a nonmech reason.

If you see that reason, you should know why I am sitting on it and the end game.

[MathBlade]

I did a skim and it’s late so the only non mech related reason I can think of is reads.
But if it’s reads then why wait?

I am just going to bed and will reread T3’s ISO with clean mind.

[Titus]

I did a skim and it’s late so the only non mech related reason I can think of is reads.
But if it’s reads then why wait?

I am just going to bed and will reread T3’s ISO with clean mind.

Because I want to hear in depth reasoning for whom DGB and Wheme want to flip.

I feel that's essential to check before I crack the game open.

[Titus]

Actually, I did check my work and I'm revising my Math read to not voting him today.

I have the move that I intend to make in mind today. This game gets easier if scum do not bus.

[Titus]

Math, I am checking my work. Where did MURDERCAT slip he was a PR?

[Titus]

I mean imho murdercat slipped PR like I said earlier so that would be a smart kill if my theory is right
T3 pretty much screamed “I am the fuckin” rolecop in his intro and then claimed flavor so….?

To me those are just like duh kills and aren’t player indicative. It makes me think scum weren’t suspected D1/D2 but that’s just gut.

Who do you think is scum?

If T3 was killed for the reason you say (which I doubt), DGB and I don't make that kill. T3 is a known liar about his claims, to the point of gamewrecking. DGB and I would never take his rolecop claim at face value.

We literally just finished a game where T3 claimed informed miller d1. His knowledge was that a two shot cop existed. It didn't. Town flipped T3. He was a VT.

If you are correct, the scumteam must be Galron and Wheme.

[Titus]

In fact it had been less than 24 hours from that flip to T3's claim here.

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=86800

Deco game

[Titus]

Before you claim scum rolecopped T3, that's impossible because Toog blocked their rolecop.

[MathBlade]

Spoiler: Claim posts

That seems like not a good thing to say before someone claims it but ok

by the way if we could end days with a prime number of pages that would be very great thank you

Is this the post you're talking about?

Yeah
Like somehow this got ignored but T3's post didn't
Makes me feel weird in a way

I tend to not want to elaborate on claim related things

(Town would have backed off once they realized why I put Umlaut on the list by mistake)

I'm not backing off because I think choosing the first three people who posted is a really easy way to fake reads

Where in here is it implied that's why I originally voted you?

I voted you because your first statement sounded like you were trying to make fake content. If you weren't I think you were more likely to explain the reasoning for your claim. The fact that you didn't bother to check if umlaut had posted anything while trying make it seem like your reads were based on content when referring to nom made it worse.

There is no way this wagon on me is real, these votes are awful and trying to run me up to a claim is terrible

My guess is that based on Murdercat's ISO Murdercat slipped he was a PR of some kind. VT's don't heavily worry about being put to a claim at L -1. My guess is that scum though to kill him soon as 213 dropped.

Well I honestly hope you're eliminated because I don't think you're town, your reason was just sooo baaaad.

Contrast this with Flea's response. It's a generic "your reason was just soooo bad". It doesn't have a fear of PR at all in it.

MurderCat PR question

[MathBlade]

By the way, anyone who claims a type of Modified Rolecop is confirmed town. This information I have from somewhere that I will not elaborate on furter.

This is a common way PRs claim or maybe just common for me.
I do something like “I am pretty sure a (PR here) would do (some action I did)”
Or I have a really strong gut that blah would be checked.

This way I can steer town in the right direction without claiming.

Scum team knew Nom was Derivative and when T3 claimed Second Derivative or Second Derivative Test it’s likely that they went hey Nom is our/a cop and T3 claimed Second Derivative so probably rolecop when combined together. I think T3 probably died because of role but it’s possible for a reads reason maybe but role to me makes more sense

[MathBlade]

So if you and DGB are scum then you’d have probably killed him for reads? Like I am not looking at another game at midnight to be fair so just going to take it on your word. Did T3 give a reason for lying?

[Ircher]

Day 5 VC #1

Not Voting (5): Galron, DrippingGoofball, WhemeStar, Titus, MathBlade

With 5 alive, it takes 3 votes to fade a player.

Deadlines

This phase will end no earlier than Thursday, July 15, 2021 9:45:00 PM EDT or in (expired on 2021-07-15 21:45:00).
This phase will end no later than Saturday, July 24, 2021 9:45 PM EDT or in (expired on 2021-07-24 21:45:00).

Moderator Notes

1: If you have regular weekend V/LA, please inform me each week.
2: Please let me know if you have a different pronoun preference than listed below.
3: The moderator will be V/LA in late July. Tentative dates are July 25 to July 28.
4: Please note that with five players left, there is no minimum deadline.

Pronoun Key

1: DrippingGoofball : It
3: Xlos : He/him
4: Almost50 : He/him
6: Galron : He/him
7: MathBlade : He/him
9: Titus : She/her
10: WhemeStar : He/him

[Titus]

So if you and DGB are scum then you’d have probably killed him for reads? Like I am not looking at another game at midnight to be fair so just going to take it on your word. Did T3 give a reason for lying?

Yes. T3 claimed to be pulling a gambit. He was hoping scum would claim the two shot cop. No one claimed it D3 so T3 got eliminated.

[Titus]

Murder panicking at A50 analysis.

Catching up.
Mcs response to A50 gut pinged me the same way and I think Titus gets townpoints for this. VOTE: MURDERCATpedit: Hammer?

Edit: Vote edited for Vcer. Try to capitalize the U as well.
~Ircher

The pool is Wheme Toog Titus A50.[context adding: nom's pool for his FN action. It suggests he thought all of us were town and he's right on three out of four proven.]

Oh, yeah.
Wheme has some really easy meta that I'm going to do soon. Toog always radiates scumminess as either alignment so I'm not sure. Titus and A50 I have no idea how to read.

DGB either you're shit at this game, I'm shit at this game, or you're mafia. Considering your join date you're mafia.

DGB's claim is probably real by the virtue of my flavor being second deriv and DGB being first deriv.

While T3 had some suspicions of us, T3 was not killed for his reads if DGB and I were scum. He ended at DGB town and him thinking town on me with no confidence. That doesn't make sense for a DGB + Titus team to kill T3 for his reads, unless my theory of why T3 was killed was accurate? In that case, why would I suggest an answer that implicitly clears someone in the pool?

[MathBlade]

Not sure why you think T3 was killed except reads, but killing someone who townreads you incorrectly can solidify it.

“For reads” really should have been “for gamestate manipulation” which is about leaving the best impression.

I don’t see how that clears anyone or supports anyone as “for reads/gamestate manipulation” can mean anyone is scum.

If we ignore that Murdercat was likely killed for PR then say for reads and look at the last few posts
DGB scum kills Murdercat to make others look scummy so it has time to execute its gambit.
Slimer (my slot) kills Murdercat because suspected. (Not scum here just devils advocate)

It becomes meaningless unless you can get inside how player X plays scum and why they do kills.
That’s why the kills don’t make sense to me especially Jake.
I can’t tie a consistent narrative from endgame to beginning for anyone but teams are more likely if it’s not reads related reasons.
So it’s more likely not reads related reasons.

[MathBlade]

VOTE: DrippingGoofball

No. No. Fuck that. I'm not taking your shit right now. You don't get to decide ifbother people are being genuine or not.

If you assume scum were always killing because of suspicion then DGB is scum here.
Then you get DGB with me(incorrectly) or Galron

Which would make Murdercat’s reads mostly wrong which defeats the Murdercat was killed for reads argument unless frame job.

So like some players have to be killed for not reads reasons

[Titus]

I can and I have established such a theory. I want to hear from Wheme and DGB but I know who I am voting today.

If T3 was killed "for gamestate manipulation" then why didn't a scum!DGB rely on T3 townreading it? In fact, no one has gone through and tried to determine why each slot was killed but for me (and you possibly in one post where you talk about murdercat). No one has really commented on the reads of the dead.

You can absolutely work backwards and from a common theme. This is what profilers do. Each kill individually can be argued away, but the lot of them largely being killed for the same reason cannot. It might even hold for Xlos but I'm not certain there because Xlos might just be an lol obvious kill. I haven't looked at who he suspected.

[Titus]

VOTE: DrippingGoofball

No. No. Fuck that. I'm not taking your shit right now. You don't get to decide ifbother people are being genuine or not.

If you assume scum were always killing because of suspicion then DGB is scum here.
Then you get DGB with me(incorrectly) or Galron

Which would make Murdercat’s reads mostly wrong which defeats the Murdercat was killed for reads argument unless frame job.

So like some players have to be killed for not reads reasons

Jake the Wolfie was killed for his townread actions not his scumread actions. A50 was a foregone miselimination. Jake was killed due to his resistance to that, not because he suspected DGB at some point.

[MathBlade]

All things considered I'm very happy with tonight's events. My scumteam last night was A50 + {Titus, Jake, DGB}. Now Jake is town and I'm feeling much better about DGB now that their claim isn't 1-shot cop. Plus, between the breadcrumb and the reasoning against mathblade in 1517, I think that the claim is real. Particularly

But then the next day I thought, if MathBlade, is scum, he knows I fakeclaimed 1-shot, figured with the even-night rolecop flipped and the word ODD in my first post, that I was an odd-night cop. And MathBlade!scum would NK me for sure.

This kind of content takes a fairly high amount of meditation on the fact that he is an odd night rolecop to achieve, very towny.

Also the clear on me makes me feel a lot better. Last day phase Toog said something along the lines of "you are terrible town since you're killing me and then A50", but really it's worse than that, since if A50 is scum, in all likelihood I would be next (setting up 3 miselims, a terrifically bad result). Now the worst case is a bit better. But that's the extent of my confidence on him, we shall see if I am terrible town or good town soon (probably). VOTE: Almost50

If this works out we confirm Wheme which puts us in a winning position since I think me, DGB, and Galron are already almost certainly town.

pedit: Hmm turns out you can move your vote onto people by wishing them harm (Titus is on Wheme in the votecount)

Looking forward to hearing your theory.

The last reads Xlos gave was before A50’s flip.

Xlos thought DGB+Galron are town and Wheme /A50 lock scum.

If we keep that opinion then Xlos would think all scum in you, me, Wheme.

Going to assume you’re not scum claiming so any theory you propose that’s reads based is Me+Wheme
Which then goes against Murdercat so like

???

[Titus]

If the goal was to shoot based on DGB suspicion, you would have taken the bullet instead of A50 given you're more vocal and no one was listening to Jake.

[Titus]

All things considered I'm very happy with tonight's events. My scumteam last night was A50 + {Titus, Jake, DGB}. Now Jake is town and I'm feeling much better about DGB now that their claim isn't 1-shot cop. Plus, between the breadcrumb and the reasoning against mathblade in 1517, I think that the claim is real. Particularly

But then the next day I thought, if MathBlade, is scum, he knows I fakeclaimed 1-shot, figured with the even-night rolecop flipped and the word ODD in my first post, that I was an odd-night cop. And MathBlade!scum would NK me for sure.

This kind of content takes a fairly high amount of meditation on the fact that he is an odd night rolecop to achieve, very towny.

Also the clear on me makes me feel a lot better. Last day phase Toog said something along the lines of "you are terrible town since you're killing me and then A50", but really it's worse than that, since if A50 is scum, in all likelihood I would be next (setting up 3 miselims, a terrifically bad result). Now the worst case is a bit better. But that's the extent of my confidence on him, we shall see if I am terrible town or good town soon (probably). VOTE: Almost50

If this works out we confirm Wheme which puts us in a winning position since I think me, DGB, and Galron are already almost certainly town.

pedit: Hmm turns out you can move your vote onto people by wishing them harm (Titus is on Wheme in the votecount)

Looking forward to hearing your theory.

The last reads Xlos gave was before A50’s flip.

Xlos thought DGB+Galron are town and Wheme /A50 lock scum.

If we keep that opinion then Xlos would think all scum in you, me, Wheme.

Going to assume you’re not scum claiming so any theory you propose that’s reads based is Me+Wheme
Which then goes against Murdercat so like

???

Xlos was killed because LoL elo clear, not for his reads.

[MathBlade]

If the goal was to shoot based on DGB suspicion, you would have taken the bullet instead of A50 given you're more vocal and no one was listening to Jake.

I think Jake was shot due to scum thinking he was the vig.
I did several signals to him and outright asked him to shoot DGB.

[MathBlade]

All things considered I'm very happy with tonight's events. My scumteam last night was A50 + {Titus, Jake, DGB}. Now Jake is town and I'm feeling much better about DGB now that their claim isn't 1-shot cop. Plus, between the breadcrumb and the reasoning against mathblade in 1517, I think that the claim is real. Particularly

But then the next day I thought, if MathBlade, is scum, he knows I fakeclaimed 1-shot, figured with the even-night rolecop flipped and the word ODD in my first post, that I was an odd-night cop. And MathBlade!scum would NK me for sure.

This kind of content takes a fairly high amount of meditation on the fact that he is an odd night rolecop to achieve, very towny.

Also the clear on me makes me feel a lot better. Last day phase Toog said something along the lines of "you are terrible town since you're killing me and then A50", but really it's worse than that, since if A50 is scum, in all likelihood I would be next (setting up 3 miselims, a terrifically bad result). Now the worst case is a bit better. But that's the extent of my confidence on him, we shall see if I am terrible town or good town soon (probably). VOTE: Almost50

If this works out we confirm Wheme which puts us in a winning position since I think me, DGB, and Galron are already almost certainly town.

pedit: Hmm turns out you can move your vote onto people by wishing them harm (Titus is on Wheme in the votecount)

Looking forward to hearing your theory.

The last reads Xlos gave was before A50’s flip.

Xlos thought DGB+Galron are town and Wheme /A50 lock scum.

If we keep that opinion then Xlos would think all scum in you, me, Wheme.

Going to assume you’re not scum claiming so any theory you propose that’s reads based is Me+Wheme
Which then goes against Murdercat so like

???

Xlos was killed because LoL elo clear, not for his reads.

I agree. But you said you hadn’t looked at who Xlos suspected.
I did for you to help solidify that.