Open 843 - Divide & Conquer - Game Over!

[Dunnstral]

Disagree; Luke had me leaning town

[Prism]

Good catch, I was working off of 508, 530 is actually a big mixup and has you leaning town for the lack of activity and Dragons leaning town for their vote on you in 513. I found neither persuasive at the time and definitely don't now so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Prism]

I've kind of gone back and forth on posting this shit but I spent an hour and it might not ever be relevant again so fuck it it's going up.

Since no one else has much to say, I'll respond to this now.

My apologies for the length-breaking down good/bad scumplay is my favorite topic, and I love talking hypotheticals. I have tried to keep certain sections addressing the actual tangible topic at hand, but others are...more discursive and excessive.

i think someone who railroaded on todoraki could have known it was a mislim and kept it going with a pedantic argument especially with people sheeping them

then comes a calculated bus on D2, being steadfast on IV without even considering esther (actually you both were like that).

I would challenge you to revisit both of these and interrogate whether this makes sense. I would especially recommend tracking my progression on esther, which swapped with a combination of several factors, beginning with their hail mary wall on me that I found an...interesting choice if scum, turning more decisive when I learned it was not Morning Tweet and especially that she did not necessarily have the mechanical prowess I assumed. While I was skeptical of IV falling off and his post at EoD Day 1, the two post check-in was the nail in the coffin. That dude will go door to door to sell the most bizarre scumcases, and while the giant AtE wall put the momentary fear of God in me, I already found the wall of questionable timing and when I actually read through it I found the wall borderline nonsensical. I was already burnt out and demoralized and the thought of going through it line by line only to be wrong again was enough to made me sick to my stomach. Vote it and move on, avert your eyes from the scene if it turns out to cause an accident.

Addressing Todoroki is a bit more complicated, but the short of it it does not make sense to walk straight into a possible BoP vote Day 2. It works out only with the power of hindsight and knowing in advance that I would get townread for forcing through a miselim. I stand by my statement that I do not put Todoroki in the group of 3 ever; I thought (lmao) them both very easy reads and as scum am very confident in my ability to pocket them both and keep them under control. Both are eager to dialogue with me, and I specialize in sending players down conversational deadends as a form of traffic control to prevent connecting with other players. Depending on how many kills I need to make in 6, they are a safe nightkill that will virtually never be questioned, and an easy choice to put in 6 among a smattering of target elims.

Contrast that with the players that wound up in my group: All of your styles are my anathema, most only grudgingly willing to work with me, virtually all reluctant to give extensive reasoning or engage in extended research, all but Dunnstral whimsical, and I am forced to rely on rolling the dice on whatever reads someone's breakfast that morning points them towards. Kuriyama, the only exception and someone I am on record as eagerly pacing the halls waiting for a scumflip against, died N1. The group of 6, in short, is an unpredictable mob that I am never going to be able to steer effectively or bring to heel as scum.

Spoiler: Finally, I have had a blueprint on how to deal with notscience for the better part of a year, and I do not mind outing it without using it.

I have long thought that copying what I did to quiet in Iceland would work against notscience. Realizations about dynamics, or player insecurities, are much more compelling when the other person thinks of it of their own realization. I do not give these relational insights notscience was worried about in 285 for free as scum; I am much more brutal and plan development over the course of multiple dayphases. Specifically, this is what I am very confident would have worked on getting a townread from notscience:

But the most important is the dynamic of putting myself below him for a moment here. Quiet is a talented player, sharp but rough around the edges, and eager to prove himself. You can see him gaining confidence with every post. He wants to work with me on equal terms if he's town, and hold his own against me if I'm scum. This entire angle-that I'm annoyed he called my alignment in a single post, and had a hard time admitting he could see through me so quickly-is playing specifically to that rising confidence and desire to prove himself. It's flattery disguised as annoyance and reluctant recognition.

I am confident that bruteforcing tone, contemptuously challenging his townread on me, then reluctantly "acquiescing" to the struggle, would have won any game against notscience almost singlehandedly. I have waited to do it all year. Contrast this with someone like Firebringer, who when presented similar recognition last night is never going to care, because while he respects my play my opinion of him is not a concern or a medal to hang on the wall.

Reviewing this game, I am more than satisfied that it would have worked as envisioned. I do not mind going back to the drawing board if I wind up rolling scum against him in the future; perhaps the assistance will make the game worthwhile. It is also worth noting that Lukewarm fell victim to smaller scale, very off-the-cuff improvisation of the same theme of inspired realization in a recent mini normal. I had the idea to make

him

figure out why I started with his ISO given my approach, and it worked spectacularly.

While ironic in the context of this huge ass wall, I also do not think it is true that I kept it pedantic; I was actually very concerned by Lukewarm's spiral of questions in the 400s. I thought it both plausibly town and completely unparsable, and commented as such. I took the night to revisit; on waking up, thinking through both what I knew of Lukewarm and notscience, I decided to pull the trigger. I had at some point skimmed Guardians and seen that, while not identical, he handled Pavowski similarly (as scum), and notscience did not line up to what I expected out of his town engagements with me from 2181 and especially Perpetual MELO, where he was confident enough in his alignment to play hardball with me even as he was deferential in my reads on others. At one point I also saw a similarity to Warehouse-13, where he was scum.

seeing an opportunity to ride on town cred, prism hammers innocent dwlee ending discussion and preventing any second thought from those involved.

finally prism, despite being so town read, doesn't die. does things in the PT thread to make brighter puppy look more town so it makes sense for them to be the kill instead despite their dissonance.

Fair enough, with the hammer I would be trying to get scumread to justify living overnight. I dread three ways as scum because the degree of unpredictability is very high. I think the setup with Brighter is plausible, but do you doubt that I take such a transparent and cooperative overnight approach to the PT as town?

As a counterpoint, this is why I hate bussing in games unless required and would have jumped on the chance to get a 5 way ELO when one would have obviously been unexpected. This was achievable even while bussing IV; the votes were set such that even with Dwlee on it actually would have been impossible to flip correctly in 3. This was avoided partly by your whimsical vote but partially because I made the coalition problem, and the fact that the 4 votes in 3 were only enough to guarantee a misflip, to collective attention, made it a centerpiece of discussion, fiercely insisted that we needed to manage it. This would have been great if I used this deadlock point to sell people on going in 6 instead, but I did not do so. It was part of my Dunnstral scumlean and I actually used it to try and compel him to go more aggressive in his read on IV.

I can address blitzing situations but I think it suffices to say that I would have set up a blitz on Dunnstral only to back out immediately; I don't think this contextually makes any fucking sense at all, and him refusing to give content is very beneficial for me as scum who views him as a target elimination. Instead I threatened to policy him if he didn't go to bat and become readable.

This again is not even touching on my interactions with IV themselves, which I could probably write another egotistical book about if I wanted.

[Prism]

Please direct all complaints for my existence to one Peta "catboi" Pan, reachable via email at animecatboylover@mafiascum.net

Imagine if I had spent any of that hour doing literally anything else with my life

[Prism]

Tracking through these interactions I am actually convinced IV is a genius. 1202, 1203, 1204 each address all of Dunnstral, Dragons, and dwlee one at a time briefly.

Page 50. Expresses scumread on Dunnstral, Brighter asks him to vote Dunnstral, doesn't vote Dunnstral. Fully aware he can get flipped if anyone flips over, doesn't blitz when given the chance. Instead just argues about going on esther. Literally spends no time all game advocating for basically anything to Dragons, 1203 is most substantive. Forgetting him because he's too focused on trying to win over votes, or leaving him alone because he's not voting IV?

Galaxy brain shit

[Prism]

VOTE: Dwlee

You see I'm gonna post analysis soon so you put me to E-1? What is this?

why are you so upset about this but you called my callout of prism’s E1 slimy

like comparatively I don’t think STDs E1 is that unreasonable given deadline proximity. Prisms E1 we still had like 6+ days left I think

Mmmm Dragons really isn't in danger here, the three votes on table are IV/Dunn/Dw, I don't think there's a reason to leap to a partner defense here.

If I had to call it I'm voting Dunnstral but god reading Dragons and is like pulling teeth.

[Prism]

Alright I'm calling it here I am putting the mafia game DOWN it is time to SLEEP

[Dunnstral]

I read 1552 and it was interesting

[Dunnstral]

I'd argue that IV is trying to set up associatives with their flip, and maybe trying to live one more day. But not playing for the 5 person win.

With that in mind, I think post 1244 is meant for associations with Dwlee, or to try to push that elim over. I think that interpreting it as a defense of Save the Dragons is reading into it incorrectly. And in any case, basing votes on how IV played seems folly when:
A) Uou believe they played like a genius
B) You haven't found a post that makes you think that IV is aligned with me (or anyone)

[Prism]

I'm trying to steer clear today; wound up spending all of yesterday on this. Once I get started there's basically no stopping the motor.

If anyone has specific questions for me I might swing by late evening

[Save The Dragons]

prism - do you think dunnstral actually analyzed the proto-case i had against you

dunnstral - if prism convinces me they're not scum, isn't that a good enough reason to scumread you

[Prism]

Yes, he correctly identified one problem (easy since he was not steadfast on IV either), and the other was very plausible.

If he's scum he's capitalizing on you refusing to do even the most basic reread or level of analysis. What does it fucking take to get you to reread the game or either of our ISOs, dude? Do I need to lay out pieces of candy? I have tried directly asking, I have tried giving you space, I have tried directly linking you. You give vague one liners and peace.

If Dunnstral is scum he's capitalizing on you refusing to do anything substantive and just aimlessly spitballing garbage. You are beating yourself, and Dunnstral knows not to be asleep at the wheel when I get serious. Yes he read that post, yes he gave a response, yes he actually thought about it.

[Save The Dragons]

Fmpov iv was hard bussed by his partner so saying it's not true isn't really a valid response. As far as not needing to end discussion I disagree too, town could have had second thoughts about dwlee or brighter puppy could have spoken out against dwlee so I dont see that point really being valid either

So why in fucks name do you

[Save The Dragons]

We have time I will do my due dilligence

[Prism]

You came in today with a paranoia panic of me. After we chase you down the block three or four times, you spitball a world where certain reads or stances are strategic and fake. Not a single time have you gone back and reread the reads, posts, progressions in question, even as we beg you to.

You're a tonal player, that's great, but tonal players also reread and do basic backtracking when they get hunches. From this vantage it looks like you are scum that completely expected me to buy the flop and my resurgence and high WIM caught you completely off guard.

P-Edit: Not sure what "do you" is supposed to refer to here. You said we were both steadfast. We weren't. I openly disagreed that I had no scum incentive to hammer Dwlee.

[Prism]

For AT LEAST ONE OF myself and Dunnstral, hard bussing IV made sense.

Perhaps, if you pull out the receipts, you can figure out which it is!

[Prism]

I'm going to step back and do something else.

If you want to snipehunt in spitball conspiracy world where you open palm smash the square block through the round hole, track through my ISO. If you want to actually make a scumcase, flip through Dunnstral. If you want to just keep getting rolled by whichever of us is scum and just hope someone doesn't hammer you out of the kindness of our hearts, keep doing absolutely nothing.

[Prism]

[Save The Dragons]

If you want to act like I wasn't supposed to play mafia here and try and sus you both out then fine I can just vote and go away if that's what you want

[Save The Dragons]

I dont see the point of continuing either you're scum that I'm not going to get because dunnstral is butthurt I didn't case him or you're town unable to see past I'm doing what I should be doing and that's taking a critical eye to things and trying to suss out the truth

When I'm less pissed off maybe I'll read or maybe I'll just fuckijg vote its hard to care any more

[Prism]

That is exactly the opposite of what I am suggesting.

I again will drop the topic for the day.

[Prism]

If it helps in your endeavors to pretend I am simply not here knocking down your door for content, please do so.

I want to win. I want to be sure of it. Whatever gets you to give something substantive, I will take it.

[Dunnstral]

dunnstral - if prism convinces me they're not scum, isn't that a good enough reason to scumread you

The issue is that you were floating a scumread on me before this day phase and so that needs to be properly defined

[Dunnstral]

I dont see the point of continuing either you're scum that I'm not going to get because dunnstral is butthurt I didn't case him or you're town unable to see past I'm doing what I should be doing and that's taking a critical eye to things and trying to suss out the truth

When I'm less pissed off maybe I'll read or maybe I'll just fuckijg vote its hard to care any more

I hardly consider it out of line to ask for you to be able to explain your scumread and/or past scumreads in limlo.

[Pavowski]

ya ya