In post 1542, JacksonVirgo wrote:I would much prefer, and it would benefit the Town overall, if you keep the theories as low to the initial base assumptions as humanly possible to avoid putting mental effort in forming these trees of arguments which would very likely crash down early game given how large the town pool is compared to scum.
i would even argue that these lines of thought, when used to case someone by "predicting" what scum!them would do at every step and then using that to wagon someone is scummy.
i only trust visceral gut feels that my townreads also feel.
Sorry can you reword this I don't understand.
Posted: Mon Apr 18, 2022 10:04 pm
by humaneatingmonkey
In post 1548, JacksonVirgo wrote:So you aren't eliminating mala bcuz you think they're scummy? Why not just elim FL directly
no, just why i prefer mala over FL. FL, there's always a "hmm but maybe". I feel strongly that the mason claim was scum-motivated (if FL is looking for an exact moment he was pocketed, it's this one right here). I want to build up a pressure on Mala's slot that they'd be forced to be active as soon as they return and spew as much as possible.
oh jacksonvirgo is scum and their reaction will be A, B, C, D, E (even though these A, B, C, D, E can also have a town explanation)
i will use this now to push you.
Posted: Mon Apr 18, 2022 10:08 pm
by humaneatingmonkey
the only thing i trust is when i feel something about a post, and it's also felt by someone else.
if no one feels it, i will point everyone towards it and look at their reaction.
if my townreads dont feel it, maybe im just wrong
oh jacksonvirgo is scum and their reaction will be A, B, C, D, E (even though these A, B, C, D, E can also have a town explanation)
i will use this now to push you.
Sorry what does that have to do with what you quoted?
Posted: Mon Apr 18, 2022 10:11 pm
by humaneatingmonkey
theories like that not only hurt town, but help scum, and im backing it up
I am only saying that I believe the path the the Town overall seems to be taking, including yourself, is foolish. Building up a tree of assumptions to make a case on somebody when someone scummy by nature exists is not a valid elimination. Take out a single assumption and the whole thing falls down. You seem to be reading both as scum, that claimed masonry with each other yes? That's what I've gotten from reading this context.
Take out the assumption that it means anything, because it could very well have just been a lolz moment. It then means nothing in terms of them being aligned at all. Take note of you thinking FL is trying to save scum!mala without doubling down. They've been doing the exact thing with me, I've asked people to comment on it to but nobody has to this exact second.
You are building an assumption tree and ignoring anything else that would counter it, also even if you weren't doing the latter, it is still a bad idea to go so high up in terms of case complexity so early in the game. I am not for either mala nor FL elimination until proven otherwise.
Posted: Mon Apr 18, 2022 10:22 pm
by MalcolmTucker
I don't entirely disagree with your argument HEM that a Mala elimination might be useful in terms of giving us info as to who's pushed there and who's gone elsewhere, and I'd probably be okay to back you up on it if I didn't suspect you myself. I dunno, I still think NK15 is our best shout here, but while I fundamentally think mafia were on the Flavor wagon, I'm not at all convinced Roden is particularly suspect despite Flavor's misgivings.
Posted: Mon Apr 18, 2022 10:24 pm
by Cat Scratch Fever
VC 1.23
With 13 players, it takes 7 to make a decision. Day 1 ends in (expired on 2022-04-25 00:30:00).
I am only saying that I believe the path the the Town overall seems to be taking, including yourself, is foolish. Building up a tree of assumptions to make a case on somebody when someone scummy by nature exists is not a valid elimination. Take out a single assumption and the whole thing falls down. You seem to be reading both as scum, that claimed masonry with each other yes? That's what I've gotten from reading this context.
Take out the assumption that it means anything, because it could very well have just been a lolz moment. It then means nothing in terms of them being aligned at all. Take note of you thinking FL is trying to save scum!mala without doubling down. They've been doing the exact thing with me, I've asked people to comment on it to but nobody has to this exact second.
You are building an assumption tree and ignoring anything else that would counter it, also even if you weren't doing the latter, it is still a bad idea to go so high up in terms of case complexity so early in the game. I am not for either mala nor FL elimination until proven otherwise.
no assumption trees here.
im questioning why malakittens would have any town motivation claiming masons with FL there when 1.) i dont think the material to strongly townread FL exists, 2.) malakittens had limited interaction with the thread at that point in time so there was no way to gague if it was a joke, and 3.) it wasn't played like it was a joke. i seriously think it was designed to get a reaction from the town.
Posted: Mon Apr 18, 2022 10:31 pm
by humaneatingmonkey
In post 1560, MalcolmTucker wrote:I don't entirely disagree with your argument HEM that a Mala elimination might be useful in terms of giving us info as to who's pushed there and who's gone elsewhere, and I'd probably be okay to back you up on it if I didn't suspect you myself. I dunno, I still think NK15 is our best shout here, but while I fundamentally think mafia were on the Flavor wagon, I'm not at all convinced Roden is particularly suspect despite Flavor's misgivings.
it's just that... i really like my wagon yknow?
dont let me keep you from building that wagon if that's where you want to go.
i also think roden is town. i entertained roden pocketing me. that would only be useful to think about if i already think roden is scum, which i don't.
I am only saying that I believe the path the the Town overall seems to be taking, including yourself, is foolish. Building up a tree of assumptions to make a case on somebody when someone scummy by nature exists is not a valid elimination. Take out a single assumption and the whole thing falls down. You seem to be reading both as scum, that claimed masonry with each other yes? That's what I've gotten from reading this context.
Take out the assumption that it means anything, because it could very well have just been a lolz moment. It then means nothing in terms of them being aligned at all. Take note of you thinking FL is trying to save scum!mala without doubling down. They've been doing the exact thing with me, I've asked people to comment on it to but nobody has to this exact second.
You are building an assumption tree and ignoring anything else that would counter it, also even if you weren't doing the latter, it is still a bad idea to go so high up in terms of case complexity so early in the game. I am not for either mala nor FL elimination until proven otherwise.
no assumption trees here.
im questioning why malakittens would have any town motivation claiming masons with FL there when 1.) i dont think the material to strongly townread FL exists, 2.) malakittens had limited interaction with the thread at that point in time so there was no way to gague if it was a joke, and 3.) it wasn't played like it was a joke. i seriously think it was designed to get a reaction from the town.
Why would scum claim masons on day 1?
Also I keep feeling like everyone keeps silently dismissing my post about FL pocketing me and every time I bring it up. Can someone please respond to that, I am not in the right headspace to be able to gauge it correctly. Or at least tell me that you are not talking about it because it's meaningless, (and if it is, drop the Fl white-kniting mala argument)
In post 1560, MalcolmTucker wrote:I don't entirely disagree with your argument HEM that a Mala elimination might be useful in terms of giving us info as to who's pushed there and who's gone elsewhere, and I'd probably be okay to back you up on it if I didn't suspect you myself. I dunno, I still think NK15 is our best shout here, but while I fundamentally think mafia were on the Flavor wagon, I'm not at all convinced Roden is particularly suspect despite Flavor's misgivings.
it's just that... i really like my wagon yknow?
dont let me keep you from building that wagon if that's where you want to go.
i also think roden is town. i entertained roden pocketing me. that would only be useful to think about if i already think roden is scum, which i don't.
I just don't really share your concerns re Mala's jokey mason claim. That was all it felt like to me - a standard joke, which at best might elicit some interesting reactions. Is there any benefit for scum forcing a mason claim at that point in the game? My main concern re Mala is their general inactivity, especially given they are under pressure.
why would scum claim mason... let's forget about two scum... just think about one scum
to mason bait
fin
Posted: Mon Apr 18, 2022 10:34 pm
by humaneatingmonkey
In post 1565, MalcolmTucker wrote:My main concern re Mala is their general inactivity, especially given they are under pressure.
im willing to let that go because that timer's gonna run out, and he's gonna have to show himself up and tell us stories
Posted: Mon Apr 18, 2022 10:36 pm
by humaneatingmonkey
In post 1564, JacksonVirgo wrote:Also I keep feeling like everyone keeps silently dismissing my post about FL pocketing me and every time I bring it up. Can someone please respond to that, I am not in the right headspace to be able to gauge it correctly. Or at least tell me that you are not talking about it because it's meaningless, (and if it is, drop the Fl white-kniting mala argument)
why would scum claim mason... let's forget about two scum... just think about one scum
to mason bait
fin
Why have scum!FL being backing up scum!mala part of the discussion if two scum claiming masons is out of the question, because it is. Or at least it isn't scum!AI.
I am still not willing to vote for the chance that they mason baited when jokes about masonry's are not at all rare and they already proved to have a joking attitude given the first few pages.
Did somebody say assumption tree?
Posted: Mon Apr 18, 2022 10:37 pm
by humaneatingmonkey
In post 1565, MalcolmTucker wrote:Is there any benefit for scum forcing a mason claim at that point in the game?
In post 1193, koopashell wrote:I think a wolf HEM is spewing NK15 as town in this scenario.
Speaking from a pre-flipped point of view.
This has absolutely nothing to do with what you said, but quoting it because it made me remember. I've been feeling that FL has been unnecessarily backing me up in everything in a way that seems to me unnatural and purposeful. I do not think they are scum but I am aware that town, including me, love to be town-read so I see it possible that my TL on them is based in that primarily and forcing me to ignore the slight red-flag of that pocket/white-knight and I would love some insight to see if I should continue to put that on the downlow and trust my soul or to follow that read to it's core and see where it lands.
Posted: Mon Apr 18, 2022 10:38 pm
by humaneatingmonkey
In post 1569, JacksonVirgo wrote:Why have scum!FL being backing up scum!mala part of the discussion if two scum claiming masons is out of the question, because it is.
im not gonna shut up about things im thinking about if that's what you want me to do
In post 1569, JacksonVirgo wrote:Why have scum!FL being backing up scum!mala part of the discussion if two scum claiming masons is out of the question, because it is.
im not gonna shut up about things im thinking about if that's what you want me to do
What does that have to do with me talking about the scum!FL defending scum!Mala argument.