Mafiascum.net

Posted: **Sat Feb 05, 2022 3:22 pm**

Official Vote Count 4.02

Not Voting

(3): Save The Dragons, Dunnstral, Prism

With 3 employees, it takes 2 to fire.

Deadline:

(expired on 2022-02-10 20:13:14).

Mod notes:

Posted: **Sat Feb 05, 2022 4:30 pm**

In post 290, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 251, mc esther wrote:UNVOTE:
VOTE: todoroki

i'll have like, an actual post in a bit. maybe. didnt realize i let this game slip so far, it was a bit of a rapid-fire blur for me when i dipped out but it seems to've calmed down now. prism's posts will be, uh, interesting; i obviously dont (cant!) really agree with some of it, but i appreciate that the posts are closer to my "language" than puppy's (like, less shitposty, more deconstructive-analytical).
Why do you think it is Todoroki over IV?

it's interesting you ask esther why todoraki over IV but not why in the 3 vs in the 6 especially since your notes are against voting in the three.

In post 566, Dunnstral wrote:Todoroki was a bad wagon

i still think this could be scum trying to get town points for being right

In post 635, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 602, Prism wrote:Pav I deadass spent 10 minutes wondering who the fuck no kills
As a fellow townie, I was also wondering who the night kill was

it's interesting that both of you wondered about the missing night kill upon that daystart

"fellow townie" might be TMI on Prism being town and/or trying to buddy up to them

In post 649, Dunnstral wrote:I'm leaning IV as scum but can see it being mc esther as well.

I'm thinking Dwlee of Save the Dragons in the big hood

dunnstral leans scum on IV but doesn't case or vote, trying strongly to vote outside the three and go after Dwlee or myself (both town).

In post 651, Dunnstral wrote:What info does that give us Dwlee?

In post 678, Dunnstral wrote:Dwlee you are being really vague about how flipping in the small group helps us

browbeating known town Dwlee

In post 853, Dunnstral wrote:In regards to Dwlee and Save the dragons: I have especially been not liking Dwlee's posts today, while Dragons is more neutral (though if it's not Dwlee then they look worse today)

again not really giving cases just saying that they don't like the posts but also leaving things open to mislim me later by calling me neutral instead of having a lean on me

so no info on why dwlee or me just shade

In post 856, Dunnstral wrote:I don't intend to vote in the small group today,

this changes. dunnstral was trying to get rid of a townie but decided to bus IV later on even though he didn't believe in killing in the 3?

In post 859, Dunnstral wrote:This is something that mc esther would not have known when they were making their night kill analysis, if they are town. (And so that is wrong.) It it actually hugely to Dwlee's benefit for Kuriyama to die today.

slight TMI that Esther is wrong/town (i said SLIGHT okay)

but we also know that this isn't true because Dwlee was town. kill could have been made to frame dwlee.

In post 967, Dunnstral wrote:I know your thing is being wrong this game, but me being scum with IV means neither of us were on the day 1 miselim, and then we killed someone who was planning to push somebody else

this sounds fake

i don't think there was a huge sentiment to push you or IV from anyone else otherwise you would have been pushed D2 so it seems disingenuous to act like kuriyama was the only person who was going to not push you

also browbeating prism to try and make them question their read on you

In post 987, Dunnstral wrote:I'm willing to vote in the wrong group now if we're not also voting the wrong person and we get real information. At the start of the day there was no associatives and there was no reason to do so, and also there was a lot more room for doubt in my reads in the small hood.

okay fair, scratch the point about voting in the small hood. in a scum!dunnstral world, this is you preparing to bus tho.

In post 994, Dunnstral wrote:VOTE: InnocentVillager

naked vote with no case.

In post 1215, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 1212, innocentvillager wrote:pedit: Dunnstral hi can you please explain your reads on me and esther or quote where you explained them?
Esther looks like town and you don't. They had effort posts that looked good while you didn't have much. Inside the neighborhood I mentioned your progression early on who you were voting and what you were arguing for being weird.

The line is blurring now with your recent posts and I'd really prefer to vote between Dwlee/Save the Dragons (and I have all day), as I believe that one of those two is the mafia in the group of 6

VOTE: Dwlee

sees an opportunity to shade IV but removes his vote

In post 1297, Dunnstral wrote:VOTE: innocentvillager

If we don't do this today and both me and prism die, we lose if IV is mafia because everybody else is angling around voting mc esther after this.

buddying prism

In post 1387, Dunnstral wrote:So I voted, and we still couldn't do it. The only reason we got the IV elimination is because Save the dragons made a completely unexpected flip onto IV at deadline.

this is very stoic and doesn't show your thoughts about my vote

In post 1395, Dunnstral wrote:You jumped to defending yourself, but that isn't what we were talking about.

1. You accused me of sitting on IV while hoping the wagon would move.
2. I pointed out that there was enough in-thread interest to have eliminated IV, and that you are the reason that it didn't happen
3. You start quoting where you votes for esther instead. But are you saying that was part of my "plan", or did you shift focus?

reading over it i don't disagree with your case on dwlee

In post 1460, Dunnstral wrote:Save the Dragons voting for InnocentVillager was not a horrible move like it's being made out to be if their plan is to eliminate both myself and Dwlee.

i still don't really see why i make the bus if i'm scum when i could have done nothing or voted with you for dwlee

you put a lot of backing prism into a corner with a combination of buddying them by town reading them but also browbeating them to keep them in check and off their game. this solves the problem i had earlier as to why dunnstral kills brighter puppy.

Posted: **Sat Feb 05, 2022 7:09 pm**

Thank you, this is definitely more up my alley/speaking my language. While you didn't have to do the explicit wall/analytical style-I was more just looking for evidence of genuine curiosity/follow up with rereading

in whatever form

-it is definitely appreciated. I would encourage you to do the same with my slot if you are paranoid of what you described in 1533.

I have my own thoughts but will wait for Dunnstral, with the exception of 1215. Behind IV not blitzing, my principal concern with your slot is that I did not think the posts with IV moved the needle at all and was curious about your progression on the two slots.

Most of your commentary seemed to be focusing primarily on effort from esther/IV rather than substance. 1215 explains IV retroactively as lower effort, but Day 1 that wasn't really true at all until the end when he flopped when I forced through Todoroki. From what I can piece together it was the vote in 6 progression without much evaluation of esther. 290 was a post that I found curious in retrospect, less because of Dragons' point but more that I don't think it ever crops back up. The next posts were Todoroki was a bad wagon into IV over esther in 649/651.

Posted: **Sat Feb 05, 2022 10:39 pm**

In post 1576, Save The Dragons wrote:
In post 290, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 251, mc esther wrote:UNVOTE:
VOTE: todoroki

i'll have like, an actual post in a bit. maybe. didnt realize i let this game slip so far, it was a bit of a rapid-fire blur for me when i dipped out but it seems to've calmed down now. prism's posts will be, uh, interesting; i obviously dont (cant!) really agree with some of it, but i appreciate that the posts are closer to my "language" than puppy's (like, less shitposty, more deconstructive-analytical).
Why do you think it is Todoroki over IV?
it's interesting you ask esther why todoraki over IV but not why in the 3 vs in the 6 especially since your notes are against voting in the three.

You are forgetting that I townread Todoroki and scumread IV. With that context it seems a lot less "interesting" that I'd ask this, no?

I wasn't against forming reads in the group of 3.

In post 1576, Save The Dragons wrote:
In post 566, Dunnstral wrote:Todoroki was a bad wagon
i still think this could be scum trying to get town points for being right

I don't think it makes sense to push me for "being right", nor do I think what you quoted here is evidence that I was doing so.

In post 1576, Save The Dragons wrote:
In post 635, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 602, Prism wrote:Pav I deadass spent 10 minutes wondering who the fuck no kills
As a fellow townie, I was also wondering who the night kill was
it's interesting that both of you wondered about the missing night kill upon that daystart

"fellow townie" might be TMI on Prism being town and/or trying to buddy up to them

It was a joke.

Spoiler:

In post 1576, Save The Dragons wrote:
In post 649, Dunnstral wrote:I'm leaning IV as scum but can see it being mc esther as well.

I'm thinking Dwlee of Save the Dragons in the big hood
dunnstral leans scum on IV but doesn't case or vote, trying strongly to vote outside the three and go after Dwlee or myself (both town).

I've made it clear that I think voting in the group of 6 is better. I explained why, too. Heck, I explained why in the last run of this setup where I was town for sure.
Further, this is me giving general thoughts about where I am, I mention 4 different people here, there is no particular reason for me to be focused on IV right now.

In post 1576, Save The Dragons wrote:
In post 651, Dunnstral wrote:What info does that give us Dwlee?

In post 678, Dunnstral wrote:Dwlee you are being really vague about how flipping in the small group helps us
browbeating known town Dwlee

I was trying to get them to give an explanation for their opinion instead of being really vague. Saying it gives info but not being able to tell us what that info is is nonsense. In the end, they were never able to come up with this info.

In post 853, Dunnstral wrote:In regards to Dwlee and Save the dragons: I have especially been not liking Dwlee's posts today, while Dragons is more neutral (though if it's not Dwlee then they look worse today)

again not really giving cases just saying that they don't like the posts but also leaving things open to mislim me later by calling me neutral instead of having a lean on me

so no info on why dwlee or me just shade[/quote]

I explained that I didn't like Dwlee's posts about the groups and how they were being intentionally vague. I also didn't like that they called me scum right after I called them scum, which I point out later with proof.

In post 856, Dunnstral wrote:I don't intend to vote in the small group today,

this changes. dunnstral was trying to get rid of a townie but decided to bus IV later on even though he didn't believe in killing in the 3?[/quote]

What reason do I have to bus instead of relenting to majority opinion and voting mc esther? Again, you are arguing against the evidence here.

In post 1576, Save The Dragons wrote:
In post 859, Dunnstral wrote:This is something that mc esther would not have known when they were making their night kill analysis, if they are town. (And so that is wrong.) It it actually hugely to Dwlee's benefit for Kuriyama to die today.
slight TMI that Esther is wrong/town (i said SLIGHT okay)

but we also know that this isn't true because Dwlee was town. kill could have been made to frame dwlee.

I don't see how this can be interpereted as TMI. I made it clear that I thought IV was the mafia in the grouping, so it makes sense for me to consider Mc Esther as town. Even if the kill was made to frame Dwlee, there is no evidence here to suggest that I would have been the one to make the kill. Why couldn't it have been you or Prism trying to frame Dwlee? This isn't an argument against me specifically.

In post 1576, Save The Dragons wrote:
In post 967, Dunnstral wrote:I know your thing is being wrong this game, but me being scum with IV means neither of us were on the day 1 miselim, and then we killed someone who was planning to push somebody else
this sounds fake

i don't think there was a huge sentiment to push you or IV from anyone else otherwise you would have been pushed D2 so it seems disingenuous to act like kuriyama was the only person who was going to not push you

also browbeating prism to try and make them question their read on you

I guess there wasn't a push on me on day 1. I'm not sure how I'm "browbeating" anything here, I feel an explanation is necessary.

In post 1576, Save The Dragons wrote:
In post 987, Dunnstral wrote:I'm willing to vote in the wrong group now if we're not also voting the wrong person and we get real information. At the start of the day there was no associatives and there was no reason to do so, and also there was a lot more room for doubt in my reads in the small hood.
okay fair, scratch the point about voting in the small hood. in a scum!dunnstral world, this is you preparing to bus tho.

Again, why am I bussing instead of voting for mc esther?

In post 1576, Save The Dragons wrote:
In post 994, Dunnstral wrote:VOTE: InnocentVillager
naked vote with no case.

I talked about it in the last thing you quoted. And I was seeing if Dwlee would actually move onto IV after expressing a scumread there or if they were blowing smoke right when my opinion changed.

Also, is there a reason that posts 513, 561, 652, 1235, 1284, and 1289 coming from you are better than what you've quoted me doing here?

In post 1576, Save The Dragons wrote:
In post 1215, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 1212, innocentvillager wrote:pedit: Dunnstral hi can you please explain your reads on me and esther or quote where you explained them?
Esther looks like town and you don't. They had effort posts that looked good while you didn't have much. Inside the neighborhood I mentioned your progression early on who you were voting and what you were arguing for being weird.

The line is blurring now with your recent posts and I'd really prefer to vote between Dwlee/Save the Dragons (and I have all day), as I believe that one of those two is the mafia in the group of 6

VOTE: Dwlee

sees an opportunity to shade IV but removes his vote[/quote]

This is after IV made an AtE wall. And I had been on IV long enough to prove that I wasn't the reason we couldn't get the wagon through. When I voted IV, there was a majority's worth of people voicing interest in that elimination.

In post 1576, Save The Dragons wrote:
In post 1297, Dunnstral wrote:VOTE: innocentvillager

If we don't do this today and both me and prism die, we lose if IV is mafia because everybody else is angling around voting mc esther after this.
buddying prism

I'm trying to save the game, actually. I wasn't wrong. Also, this isn't buddying.

In post 1576, Save The Dragons wrote:
In post 1387, Dunnstral wrote:So I voted, and we still couldn't do it. The only reason we got the IV elimination is because Save the dragons made a completely unexpected flip onto IV at deadline.
this is very stoic and doesn't show your thoughts about my vote

That is because I am talking to Dwlee about Dwlee. The second part, that is, if you have an argument for why me being stoic is alignment indicative I'd love to hear it.

In post 1576, Save The Dragons wrote:
In post 1460, Dunnstral wrote:Save the Dragons voting for InnocentVillager was not a horrible move like it's being made out to be if their plan is to eliminate both myself and Dwlee.
i still don't really see why i make the bus if i'm scum when i could have done nothing or voted with you for dwlee

you put a lot of backing prism into a corner with a combination of buddying them by town reading them but also browbeating them to keep them in check and off their game. this solves the problem i had earlier as to why dunnstral kills brighter puppy.

But you don't have an explanation why I would be bussing instead of voting for mc esther, do you? Again, I don't see how I'm "browbeating" anyone, nor do I see the buddying.

Posted: **Sat Feb 05, 2022 10:46 pm**

Your post looks like you decided I was scum first and then went looking in my iso for things that could support that conclusion, rather than a more organic way of doing things. Some of your thoughts ignore context in the thread, some of them don't point to me being scum at all. Also, I feel that you don't really understand how opinions changed from myself and Prism regarding mc esther and IV over the course of day 2.

Posted: **Sun Feb 06, 2022 6:58 am**

Something unexpected has come up. I will do ISOs again then read from scratch when I can.

Dunnstral, I'd still like you to track through the actual reads/reasoning on Esther & IV rather than just their existence. See bottom of 1577.

Posted: **Sun Feb 06, 2022 7:08 am**

At some point I will have to accept that staring at the same shit over and over will only get me so far but maybe context will help.

Posted: **Sun Feb 06, 2022 1:29 pm**

In post 210, Prism wrote:This is absolutely the fastest I have ever wanted to selfvote and get out of a game. Record time.

ate i could see it go either way

In post 231, Prism wrote:Focusing on the three, my current vote is esther. IV I feel I now have some idea how to read and think posts like 170 are very difficult for him to fake. 9:12 he really struggled to give reads like this off the cuff without making them overly convoluted, and the ones that did come were with a high degree of intentionality and thought. Wouldn't shock me if he's scum but yeah.

interesting how this post sets up not to bus on day 1 but leaves the door open to go after IV later

In post 392, Prism wrote: VOTE: Todoroki

I really do not like what Esther has given either, I don't know if she is just annoyed because I've never pushed her before or what, but I feel confident that 391 is a borderline scumclaim.

lacks explanation

In post 411, Prism wrote:Do you think me being wrong is scum indicative or motivated? If not, go find scum in the 3 or 6.

reads as TMI almost (being wrong) but i'm having trouble exactly discerning what prism is supposed to be wrong about.

In post 419, Prism wrote:It's literally you saying you wouldn't put yourself in the small hood without 4 of 6 as scum. There is blatant scum motivation unless you think you will specifically be called out for it.

I take it back, save the link, I am flipping you, this is absurd and you are not this dense.

i'm missing the argument here

In post 514, Prism wrote:As always, it is possible I am wrong but I would be very surprised if I were.

hate this line, looks a little fake, adds to this "wrong townie" persona

there's a distinct focus on todoraki and a lack of anything on the other two members of the smaller group towards the end of day 1. Even when unvoting prism doesn't take time to consider the other possibilities

In post 541, Prism wrote:If you're busy, okay, but I have given more than enough and from my perspective you're either scum flopping in preparation for tomorrow or are just getting in the way for zero reason.

why would he get in the way for zero reason as town? it almost seems like you're calling him out here as scum because you know it

In post 552, Prism wrote:I love the idea of Kuriyama just watching me be aggressively wrong and sipping tea while watching me piledrive the game into the ground.

i dunno if it's self doubt (i've got it in spades) but it almost seems like sometimes you know you're going to be wrong and you're laying the groundwork for it

In post 557, Prism wrote:I can't wait to policy Dunnstral tomorrow and watch him flip green

TMI?

In post 620, Prism wrote:(It would also be Dragons)

i dunno if you posted much about me before this, testing the waters? certainly not the easiest target but not a hard one

In post 655, Prism wrote:I think 651 is intellectually dishonest but w/e I'll come back another time

the time is now!

In post 773, Prism wrote:1. The scum wagon on Todoroki was overwhelmingly beneficial to mafia. The wagon was mafia driven, and more specifically the push was likely a strategic calculation by Prism.

I think this benefits greatly from the power of hindsight and retrospective fitting. I can wax poetic about my scum strategy and meta, but the short of it is this: This depends on me knowing in advance that I would get universally townread for a Todoroki push, or at least not widely scumread. This is not a feasible strategic gameplan for me, who adamantly refuses to entertain even the idea of losing as scum. I am extremely risk averse as scum and do not believe in betting the games on Day 1 gambits. It is very easy to look back and say "Well, nothing went wrong in Prism's push on Todoroki", but a million things could have gone wrong-many of them completely out of my control.

The simplest scenario, and by far the most likely, is Todoroki putting up stiffer resistance and becoming townread, which would be disastrous and put me on the ropes the rest of the game if not out entirely.

I am shocked that Brighter Puppy still says I even have "the most influence" because I mauled any reasonable ability to impose my reads on others with a sledgehammer on Day 1. In contrast, I am very confident in my ability to solo carry so long as there are no PRs or mechanical confirmation of me.

fair point (but also wifom)

In post 777, Prism wrote:
In post 768, mc esther wrote:lmao maybe i should consider the all-town wagon theory, because at this point i feel more like im being encouraged to spam the thread repeating the same "yes, i did explicitly say im asking from my perspective" points ad nauseum than i am getting a real answer to a question whose basic premises i think ive outlined pretty explicitly.

i think i am town.
i think maf are on the wagon.
the above two makes you and dunn town.
scum!dwlee, knowing my alignment and reasonably assuming i believe maf to be on the wagon, would have the ability to determine this for themself.
scum!dwlee is therefore advocating for clearing puppy and dunn in advocating for a three-group flip day three.
is it more likely that scum!dwlee simply hadnt thought this through, or doesnt care about clearing a player, than that prism is mafia?

again, for i think the eightieth time at this point, from my perspective?
I think this is batshit insane FWIW

1. The entire chain of clearing based off of your flip is ???. Dunnstral literally showed up right after the wagon was hammered, and IV was in no danger. Brighter was committed to voting in 6 and at no point was IV in any danger. This is significantly more persuasive reversed to be about your slot being scum, which was actually a viable wagon.
2. dwlee assuming first that you will come to the two clear conclusion is an even bigger ?????? and second worried that town will buy it,
based off of your play Day 1
, is batshit crazy.
3. dwlee has a 50%+ chance of losing on the spot if we voted in 6 today and knows that from 6hood

i think it's strange this doesn't come with a scumread or a vote, somehow despite this you esther town

In post 854, Prism wrote:Dunnstral, how worried are you about deadlocking?

Specifically, are you aware it is impossible to actually get IV voted out without a drastic shift in the landscape?

don't bother voting IV, it's impossible

In post 950, Prism wrote:The last few pages have sold me on Esther being town. I will want to meta but the last two pages are very, very sharp if she is scum.

not really a strong explanation as to why, could have decided to bus. but no vote on IV or any movement against him yet despite being sure esther is town

In post 1137, Prism wrote:If people prefer Dwlee instead I can go there but I am not voting Dunnstral today. If he's been doing this on purpose it's fair game and about time I got a taste of my own medicine but our reads match and there's no reason for him to accommodate going in 3 today if he's scum with esther. Dwlee was set to get flipped.

leaves the door open to go for dwlee instead of IV

In post 1163, Prism wrote:I get that "clean"/"sharp" are very vague descriptors. I know there are 2/3 times it has happened, but the most vivid wasHectic in Undertale 2.0, and while I don't think you're concerned about my alignment I want to make it clear that I'm not just pulling random bullshit out of thin air on you. It's not making any "mistakes" day in and day out all week long.

is very self aware if scum, kind of a defensive post

sorry i'm kind of petering out here it's a slog

votes on dwlee/dunnstral could be a parachute trying to escape the bus, prism had to hammer to make it look believable that IV was their target all along

hammer on dwlee is interesting it is the YOLO as described here:

In post 1359, Prism wrote:Half of me wants to YOLO but the other half of me says finish strong and do it right since this'll be my last game for awhile.

In post 1352, Prism wrote:Still think Dwlee. Busy with several towngames previously, yesterday seemed to just be stalling out hoping town would randomly flip around. Flips on IV read were very random and not elaborated on.

does give reasoning for known town dwlee but i guess i'm confused what the point of the flip is if dwlee is scum with IV

Posted: **Sun Feb 06, 2022 1:59 pm**

Quick response to what I think are the most salient points: 854 comes in the context of Dunn expressing skepticism of IV but expressing a determination to vote in 6 in the immediate preceding posts. Dunnstral is not one of the people voting to, or likely to, vote IV unless someone specifically goes after him for it, as I did.

1137 is the post where I vote IV. Dunnstral at this time is willing to (or is already) voting IV. Dwlee is not, and wants Esther.

The strategic voting implication to this is that Dwlee can survivalistically swap to IV and help me force it through if I put them under threat. Dunnstral cannot. If I want to leave a door open in 6 and protect IV, I go the opposite route and protect Dwlee from Dunnstral.

Posted: **Sun Feb 06, 2022 2:18 pm**

In post 1577, Prism wrote:290 was a post that I found curious in retrospect, less because of Dragons' point but more that I don't think it ever crops back up. The next posts were Todoroki was a bad wagon into IV over esther in 649/651.

Todoroki dies before I do anything with it. If you're asking me why I didn't press mc esther on it after, read 643 and the posts preceding it again.

In post 852, Dunnstral wrote:I've been liking mc esther's posts today and lean towards IV being scum

If you compare mc esther's posts up to this point: I liked mc esther's posts on day 2, and I thought IV's posts from day 1 & 2 were not tonally towny

Posted: **Sun Feb 06, 2022 5:31 pm**

A lot of these are subjective. They're either legitimate or they're not. I can talk more about what I was thinking if I remember, but fundamentally you have to make the call if you're town.

Spoiler: Response to every single point

In post 1582, Save The Dragons wrote:
In post 210, Prism wrote:This is absolutely the fastest I have ever wanted to selfvote and get out of a game. Record time.
ate i could see it go either way

I really don't like bad mechanics. I thought, and still think voting in 6 is fucking atrocious. Firebringer and I got along later but our playstyles clash greatly and he was the biggest reason I almost didn't sign up for this game; we had just butted heads in Holiday Dance. I thought I had made it clear that I was giving reads next to start (iirc I used something like "qualitatively" in two different senses, which made it ambiguous and his pressure more understandable), and second the idea that he thought I would be stupid enough to talk only mech as scum made me want to vomit on my computer. That's something you learn from month 1 of playing not to do as scum.

I did take a step back and logically know he was right that I needed to not make the game miserable and keep people engaged, which is why I took a more freewheeling attitude towards the fanfic, treating it as a price worth paying to keep you engaged, and had the jocular reachout to notscience. Contrast this with your experience with me in 2085, where I was very strategic to just shut Taly out of the game entirely by a combination of lecturing him+scumreading him with no reachout or legitimate dialogue ever.

In post 1582, Save The Dragons wrote:
In post 231, Prism wrote:Focusing on the three, my current vote is esther. IV I feel I now have some idea how to read and think posts like 170 are very difficult for him to fake. 9:12 he really struggled to give reads like this off the cuff without making them overly convoluted, and the ones that did come were with a high degree of intentionality and thought. Wouldn't shock me if he's scum but yeah.
interesting how this post sets up not to bus on day 1 but leaves the door open to go after IV later

aight

In post 1582, Save The Dragons wrote:
In post 392, Prism wrote: VOTE: Todoroki

I really do not like what Esther has given either, I don't know if she is just annoyed because I've never pushed her before or what, but I feel confident that 391 is a borderline scumclaim.
lacks explanation

I gave a lot, actually. My read was very derivative of what I personally expected from Todoroki, and whether I thought they believed their own arguments. I did not. There's a sequence that starts around 385, gets the vote after 391, which is explained in 392, and continues for the entire next two pages. You should have seen these in the ISO, and quote several from the later exchange.

In post 1582, Save The Dragons wrote:
In post 411, Prism wrote:Do you think me being wrong is scum indicative or motivated? If not, go find scum in the 3 or 6.
reads as TMI almost (being wrong) but i'm having trouble exactly discerning what prism is supposed to be wrong about.

This is talking to Todoroki about my scumread on Todoroki. It's not even close to TMI, and as I have said the reads I have trusted most over the last year+ have been gauging how good of faith discussions with me are. I had a recent terrible miss on ProHawk, was confident that I at least had Todoroki's number, and after that decided to just scrap the approach entirely out of disgust.

In post 1582, Save The Dragons wrote:
In post 419, Prism wrote:It's literally you saying you wouldn't put yourself in the small hood without 4 of 6 as scum. There is blatant scum motivation unless you think you will specifically be called out for it.

I take it back, save the link, I am flipping you, this is absurd and you are not this dense.
i'm missing the argument here

See above. I thought Lukewarm's claim that they would choose 6 hood as scum was absolute trash because Lukewarm had just tried to carry Guardians only to come short, and suffered a great blow of confidence. They are scared of several players in this playerlist, so was notscience, and I did not believe they bet on themselves to solocarry as the group of 6 requires.

In post 1582, Save The Dragons wrote:
In post 514, Prism wrote:As always, it is possible I am wrong but I would be very surprised if I were.
hate this line, looks a little fake, adds to this "wrong townie" persona

This is very rote and routine. As I said in a recent postgame, "Mafia is a story of being very confident and very wrong, but we try to improve anyway." This style of aggression, read on faith, and willingness to be wrong has a very long history with me.

Recent examples are ProHawk in Signs, Gamma in Slaughter Hour, and probably the closest parallels are my reads in Forest Fire.

I initially think Hectic scumclaimed in a single post, which I can't easily quote b/c lock and 3 nested quotes but tl;dr I (wrongly) call a post of his a scumclaim, then say "You have absolutely seen similar displays of confidence, and know very well that I do not mind being wrong." After more dialogue I realize he is town, and then I go on actual scum instead.

Town Prism in Forest Fire wrote:I legitimately believe this is flipping scum but years of experience of being Egregiously Fucking Wrong have left me rationally ready to step on stage, accept the L, smile, hold it up to the crowd, and finally try to make room for it among the ocean of others in the display case at my mother's house.

The only player from Forest Fire in this game was Lukewarm, and I think it should be obvious scum-Prism was not trying to pocket Lukewarm. I don't think there's any reason to go out of my way to imitate this here, especially when the stakes are significantly higher.

In post 1582, Save The Dragons wrote:there's a distinct focus on todoraki and a lack of anything on the other two members of the smaller group towards the end of day 1. Even when unvoting prism doesn't take time to consider the other possibilities

I spent some time on them early. The unvote was specifically to consider Todoroki's interactions and whether or not I thought they made sense. It wasn't a comparative read. esther/IV were not the projects-the project was getting Todoroki nailed down one way or another, and I thought I had the information and ability to do so, especially when combined with a meta record to reference.

In post 1582, Save The Dragons wrote:
In post 541, Prism wrote:If you're busy, okay, but I have given more than enough and from my perspective you're either scum flopping in preparation for tomorrow or are just getting in the way for zero reason.
why would he get in the way for zero reason as town? it almost seems like you're calling him out here as scum because you know it

People flop and get in the way of votes all of the time and it tilts me to no fucking end. I strongly doubt you haven't seen this before. I don't have any reason to castigate my partner here and try to bring him to heel except to distance.

In post 1582, Save The Dragons wrote:
In post 552, Prism wrote:I love the idea of Kuriyama just watching me be aggressively wrong and sipping tea while watching me piledrive the game into the ground.
i dunno if it's self doubt (i've got it in spades) but it almost seems like sometimes you know you're going to be wrong and you're laying the groundwork for it

See above. Kuriyama specifically has seen many, many times that I am very hit/miss and would absolutely let me just me lose us the game as scum.

In post 1582, Save The Dragons wrote:
In post 557, Prism wrote:I can't wait to policy Dunnstral tomorrow and watch him flip green
TMI?

It's a joke because I thought I might have free rein Day 2 if Todoroki was right, and I have never been able to read Dunnstral to save my life because he sits intentionally sits in the nullzone and gives the minimal amount he can get away with until forced otherwise.

In post 1582, Save The Dragons wrote:
In post 620, Prism wrote:(It would also be Dragons)
i dunno if you posted much about me before this, testing the waters? certainly not the easiest target but not a hard one

I was openly spitballing and you cut out the "Ask again later" because I found the group of 6 very difficult to read. I posted my ordered preference in the neighborhood overnight, and it was a response to a question from Brighter that I originally thought was to the whole game.

There's also no testing the waters. I wanted to go in 3.

In post 1582, Save The Dragons wrote:
In post 655, Prism wrote:I think 651 is intellectually dishonest but w/e I'll come back another time
the time is now!

I thought about asking earlier but decided to wait until I got hammer. He recently helped out by referencing the other game earlier, where he argued for something more narrow and niche about starting in 6 and only then going in 3. The reasoning, preserving clears in 3, does not quite transfer given a vote in 3 Day 1.

In post 1582, Save The Dragons wrote:
In post 773, Prism wrote:1. The scum wagon on Todoroki was overwhelmingly beneficial to mafia. The wagon was mafia driven, and more specifically the push was likely a strategic calculation by Prism.

I think this benefits greatly from the power of hindsight and retrospective fitting. I can wax poetic about my scum strategy and meta, but the short of it is this: This depends on me knowing in advance that I would get universally townread for a Todoroki push, or at least not widely scumread. This is not a feasible strategic gameplan for me, who adamantly refuses to entertain even the idea of losing as scum. I am extremely risk averse as scum and do not believe in betting the games on Day 1 gambits. It is very easy to look back and say "Well, nothing went wrong in Prism's push on Todoroki", but a million things could have gone wrong-many of them completely out of my control.

The simplest scenario, and by far the most likely, is Todoroki putting up stiffer resistance and becoming townread, which would be disastrous and put me on the ropes the rest of the game if not out entirely.

I am shocked that Brighter Puppy still says I even have "the most influence" because I mauled any reasonable ability to impose my reads on others with a sledgehammer on Day 1. In contrast, I am very confident in my ability to solo carry so long as there are no PRs or mechanical confirmation of me.
fair point (but also wifom)

aight

In post 1582, Save The Dragons wrote:
In post 777, Prism wrote:
In post 768, mc esther wrote:lmao maybe i should consider the all-town wagon theory, because at this point i feel more like im being encouraged to spam the thread repeating the same "yes, i did explicitly say im asking from my perspective" points ad nauseum than i am getting a real answer to a question whose basic premises i think ive outlined pretty explicitly.

i think i am town.
i think maf are on the wagon.
the above two makes you and dunn town.
scum!dwlee, knowing my alignment and reasonably assuming i believe maf to be on the wagon, would have the ability to determine this for themself.
scum!dwlee is therefore advocating for clearing puppy and dunn in advocating for a three-group flip day three.
is it more likely that scum!dwlee simply hadnt thought this through, or doesnt care about clearing a player, than that prism is mafia?

again, for i think the eightieth time at this point, from my perspective?
I think this is batshit insane FWIW

1. The entire chain of clearing based off of your flip is ???. Dunnstral literally showed up right after the wagon was hammered, and IV was in no danger. Brighter was committed to voting in 6 and at no point was IV in any danger. This is significantly more persuasive reversed to be about your slot being scum, which was actually a viable wagon.
2. dwlee assuming first that you will come to the two clear conclusion is an even bigger ?????? and second worried that town will buy it,
based off of your play Day 1
, is batshit crazy.
3. dwlee has a 50%+ chance of losing on the spot if we voted in 6 today and knows that from 6hood
i think it's strange this doesn't come with a scumread or a vote, somehow despite this you esther town

This was written for esther's benefit, not to push esther. I was very surprised to see the flurry of posting from a scum Morning Tweet, even though I questioned the intent. In contrast, I have seen a handful of these frequent catch-fire moments from her, and this led me to work through more comprehensively. Learning it was not Morning Tweet was a blow to the activity=AI idea, but it did tell me my thoughts Day 1 were wrong, and the more I thought about the strategic angle from esther, and how intuitively clean their Day 2 was, the more convinced I became. 783 and 792 discuss some of my projects and desire to take it very, very slow.

I think you should have seen some of this progression in my ISO.

In post 1582, Save The Dragons wrote:
In post 854, Prism wrote:Dunnstral, how worried are you about deadlocking?

Specifically, are you aware it is impossible to actually get IV voted out without a drastic shift in the landscape?
don't bother voting IV, it's impossible

See 1583.

In post 1582, Save The Dragons wrote:
In post 950, Prism wrote:The last few pages have sold me on Esther being town. I will want to meta but the last two pages are very, very sharp if she is scum.
not really a strong explanation as to why, could have decided to bus. but no vote on IV or any movement against him yet despite being sure esther is town

If you look at 899 a few hours earlier, you can see I was briefly skimming through the game. I again had several things I wanted to work on first. I have quick phone dialogue with Brighter about esther, promise to response to their scumread later, and do so.

You cut out the part where I am clearly in a hurry and deferring answering questions until I get a computer. Why?

In post 1582, Save The Dragons wrote:
In post 1137, Prism wrote:If people prefer Dwlee instead I can go there but I am not voting Dunnstral today. If he's been doing this on purpose it's fair game and about time I got a taste of my own medicine but our reads match and there's no reason for him to accommodate going in 3 today if he's scum with esther. Dwlee was set to get flipped.
leaves the door open to go for dwlee instead of IV

See 1583.

In post 1582, Save The Dragons wrote:
In post 1163, Prism wrote:I get that "clean"/"sharp" are very vague descriptors. I know there are 2/3 times it has happened, but the most vivid was Hectic in Undertale 2.0, and while I don't think you're concerned about my alignment I want to make it clear that I'm not just pulling random bullshit out of thin air on you. It's not making any "mistakes" day in and day out all week long.
is very self aware if scum, kind of a defensive post

This is to Brighter, who said I was not scum in any world. There's no reason to be defensive or worried about them flipping their read on me, especially given that IV was in fact scum.

In post 1582, Save The Dragons wrote:votes on dwlee/dunnstral could be a parachute trying to escape the bus, prism had to hammer to make it look believable that IV was their target all along

This works until you realize I tried to get dwlee to hammer, I unvoted Dunnstral when he gave content, and I only went back on Dunnstral close to deadline. Still, I unvoted him and split the votes 2-2-2 hoping that someone would change their mind.

In post 1582, Save The Dragons wrote:hammer on dwlee is interesting it is the YOLO as described here:

In post 1359, Prism wrote:Half of me wants to YOLO but the other half of me says finish strong and do it right since this'll be my last game for awhile.

In post 1352, Prism wrote:Still think Dwlee. Busy with several towngames previously, yesterday seemed to just be stalling out hoping town would randomly flip around. Flips on IV read were very random and not elaborated on.
does give reasoning for known town dwlee but i guess i'm confused what the point of the flip is if dwlee is scum with IV

The point was that Dwlee had IV as town, then flipped to scumreading him, then flipped back. I don't want to track through all of them now but these swaps were very underexplained despite repeated attempts to get them to do so, and they were at the points when scum had to decide whether to followthrough with the bus or punt the ball back in town's court.

Posted: **Sun Feb 06, 2022 5:47 pm**

In post 1584, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 1577, Prism wrote:290 was a post that I found curious in retrospect, less because of Dragons' point but more that I don't think it ever crops back up. The next posts were Todoroki was a bad wagon into IV over esther in 649/651.
Todoroki dies before I do anything with it. If you're asking me why I didn't press mc esther on it after, read 643 and the posts preceding it again.

I get that you were focused in 6, but my interpretation was that you were skeptical of the vote. It makes sense not to linger, but in the end you wound up weighing in on both and coming down on the side of IV-scum instead.

In post 1584, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 852, Dunnstral wrote:I've been liking mc esther's posts today and lean towards IV being scum
If you compare mc esther's posts up to this point: I liked mc esther's posts on day 2, and I thought IV's posts from day 1 & 2 were not tonally towny

I saw this in 1215, but my point was that IV high-efforted Day 1 and didn't get the same leeway (Different players? Something bad in his posting? etc.). This looks like you did not like their tone, and I would like elaboration on which posts. I was very impressed Day 1 and thought he meta-matched well.

Finally, I am again curious as to what in his final posts moved it to be more blurry as you referenced in 1215. I read that wall and thought it was all over the place, and arguing that him being nervous made him town. There are a million things to hit on with "questions [from esther] rubbing IV the wrong way", claiming that it was actually IV-town who would be more nervous in this situation as opposed to confident and aggressive, and I thought the worst paragraph was probably the one where the scummy behaviors actually might be town or NAI and he's just biased. When town innocentvillager cooks up some off the wall read he will follow you down the block and back again to talk about it. The response to esther's 1013 was also just so out of left field and different from the tone of the rest of it such that it made me go ???

Posted: **Sun Feb 06, 2022 5:56 pm**

Also worth noting for your criticism of my 541 that a few minutes later I actually went back and worked through IV's read on Todoroki in order to sell him on my vote. Todoroki pointed out IV was townreading Todoroki right between these two posts, but if you look at the timestamps I had obviously already pulled it up.

Posted: **Sun Feb 06, 2022 6:23 pm**

In post 1534, Prism wrote:
In post 1523, Save The Dragons wrote:if i were scum i would have been like "obv
dunnstralscum is obv even Brighter Puppy said so
even Prism said so everyone says so must be true"

In post 1533, Save The Dragons wrote:finally prism, despite being so town read, doesn't die. does things in the PT thread to make brighter puppy look more town so it makes sense for them to be the kill instead
despite their dissonance.
?

This seems to imply you are aware that Brighter was split on the final scum rather than united on Dunnstral.

This still bothers me. You knew that they were split and that you couldn't use it as the hypothetical scum point that you're claiming you would. One of the heads thinking Dunnstral doesn't make obvious strong consensus, and I made it clear my only strong read was Brighter town.

Posted: **Sun Feb 06, 2022 6:37 pm**

In post 1586, Prism wrote:
In post 1584, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 1577, Prism wrote:290 was a post that I found curious in retrospect, less because of Dragons' point but more that I don't think it ever crops back up. The next posts were Todoroki was a bad wagon into IV over esther in 649/651.
Todoroki dies before I do anything with it. If you're asking me why I didn't press mc esther on it after, read 643 and the posts preceding it again.
I get that you were focused in 6, but my interpretation was that you were skeptical of the vote. It makes sense not to linger, but in the end you wound up weighing in on both and coming down on the side of IV-scum instead.

I hadn't posted in a while, when I came back I was focused on other stuff and my question to mc esther wasn't on my mind anymore.

In post 1586, Prism wrote: Finally, I am again curious as to what in his final posts moved it to be more blurry as you referenced in 1215. I read that wall and thought it was all over the place, and arguing that him being nervous made him town.

I pointed out in 1067 that I didn't think IV's interactions with Dwlee or Save the Dragons was clearing for them. I said the lines were blurring because IV came back and wrote a huge wall and was also emotional posting: that made it less obvious to me and I say that I am still leaning towards it being IV later.

In post 1586, Prism wrote:
In post 1584, Dunnstral wrote:
In post 852, Dunnstral wrote:I've been liking mc esther's posts today and lean towards IV being scum
If you compare mc esther's posts up to this point: I liked mc esther's posts on day 2, and I thought IV's posts from day 1 & 2 were not tonally towny
I saw this in 1215, but my point was that IV high-efforted Day 1 and didn't get the same leeway (Different players? Something bad in his posting? etc.). This looks like you did not like their tone, and I would like elaboration on which posts. I was very impressed Day 1 and thought he meta-matched well.

I am not using meta here. I have a negative impression of posts 58-93, then mech talk which is fine except when they walk it all back at 296 by blaming their vote on the vc color and saying they don't care about the 6/3 groups, 301-303, 537 doesn't really make sense. And then more convincingly their start of day 2 felt off, and as the day went on I became more convinced that it was IV.

Posted: **Mon Feb 07, 2022 9:10 am**

I will be working over the game from scratch most of today. I plan to save any questions I have until I have hammer unless the deadline gets in the way.

If someone is opposed to me hammering or still skeptical of my alignment, then okay, we can keep talking about that or I can post thoughts publicly beforehand. I prefer 48 hours for Q&A and simple time to think.

It's 72 hours, still plenty of time to address anything, but otherwise I think we should probably get this show on the road and move on to the main event.

Posted: **Mon Feb 07, 2022 9:20 am**

my goal is to read/analyze the rebuttals later today. i think i know what i want to do but i want to see if that colors my opinion

Posted: **Mon Feb 07, 2022 9:24 am**

As far as I can tell they're both pure scumcases and not anything from us that was likely town.

Any plans to chew on that half of things?

Posted: **Mon Feb 07, 2022 9:31 am**

i want to look over IV's iso and see if i find anything interacty i'm more likely to do that than towncase both of you tbh but if i have time i can take a look

Posted: **Mon Feb 07, 2022 9:40 am**

I'm not actually asking for a written towncase, I know what I am. If I'm having to ask for it I'm not going to get anything from you giving it, just arbitrary work.

My point is that you had just gone through our ISOs and focused on making us both fit the scumworld without considering which parts did not fit. That is only half the picture.

Posted: **Mon Feb 07, 2022 12:08 pm**

im kinda over this game i get it you both aren't scum i don't think that doing the wall posts and getting responses was fruitful for me so if it helped whichever one of you is town, great.

the difference is prism is willing to entertain thoughts i have while dunnstral thinks my prism case is apparently shit so i'm not sure how i'm supposed to go forward with that if dunnstral is town, but scum dunnstral is set on discrediting me from the get go so it makes sense to attack the case. Dunnstral specifically ignored parts of the case to attack specific parts of it so instead of going through and thinking about it, it just looks like he was attacking it. going through dunnstral iso i think there was a lot more that could be construed as having come from scum

Posted: **Mon Feb 07, 2022 12:12 pm**

"you didn't case me properly" isn't really a town case it's more of a "scum caught for wrong reasons" vibe.

Posted: **Mon Feb 07, 2022 12:25 pm**

As scum I'm hammer sitting. Of course I am going to entertain your case. I might not chase you up and down the block trying to get you to reread, and instead just let you sleepwalk spitball into a loss, but yeah.

The angle of Dunnstral treating you unfairly and therefore being scum instead of just...weighing in based on our play that you just reread so far is troubling and I am having a very hard time wondering how much you actually care about play on prior days, because it generally looks like zero.

I am fundamentally readable because I sell the farm and put literally every thought and feeling on the table. I can do and do fake it as scum, but it is incredibly difficult and there are hidden Achilles heels that are decisive. Neither of you do the same, which makes the choice significantly harder, because the bulk of what matters are an underexplained vote on IV, IV not blitzing, and a YOLO bus vote on IV after I invited Dunnstral.

Posted: **Mon Feb 07, 2022 12:27 pm**

After I unvoted Dunnstral*

Posted: **Mon Feb 07, 2022 12:27 pm**

i don't think i said dunn treated me unfairly

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