Team Mafia: White Flag Mafia

[zoraster]

I have to admit, after the DGB lynch I thought to myself that 13 players may have been too many for scum to deal with in White flag. I still think 11 players may be more balanced for white flag.

[Zachrulez]

I have to admit, after the DGB lynch I thought to myself that 13 players may have been too many for scum to deal with in White flag. I still think 11 players may be more balanced for white flag.

Strongly disagree. Town has a really hard time with 10-2. This game is basically that with 3 scum where the town only needs to lynch 2. The only disadvantage to scum is that bussing is costly.

[Hoopla]

Town has a better chance with a third scum, as it's an extra target to hit if they're wrong about someone else. Four mislynches/two lynches is a pretty good ratio.

[zoraster]

I have to admit, after the DGB lynch I thought to myself that 13 players may have been too many for scum to deal with in White flag. I still think 11 players may be more balanced for white flag.

Strongly disagree. Town has a really hard time with 10-2. This game is basically that with 3 scum where the town only needs to lynch 2. The only disadvantage to scum is that bussing is costly.

That's not actually true. Town has a much better chance, lynching randomly, in WF. I think the random town success rate for 13 players is something like 48% and for 11 is 41% or something like that. I did the math a while ago.

[Zachrulez]

I don't really know much about how to calculate EV, but 48% seems high.

[zoraster]

It is high. It's much much higher than 10-3 regular mountainous or 10-2 regular mountainous. The reason is that it increases the chance of lynching enough scum dramatically, especially the longer the game goes on.

[Zachrulez]

Regardless I'm disagreeing with the idea that the game is unfair to the scum as designed.

[zoraster]

Regardless I'm disagreeing with the idea that the game is unfair to the scum as designed.

fair enough. I don't think it's totally unfair. I think both 11 and 13 player WF works pretty well.

[Llamarble]

Yeah, after D1 the chances of us winning were 27% if town lynched randomly and we were against a good town with no turboscummy townies or VIs, so I thought we were pretty screwed. Also people were suspicious of us.

[SocioPath]

Re: SocioPath... One big help going into day 2 was Thor's 281, which SP never responded to. A solid "here's why mith would do this as DGB's scumbuddy" post - and that case wouldn't have been too difficult to make - would have made life much more difficult for me.

Already did that.
Before Thor ever posted.
At that point it would be repeating myself.
Nothing solid at all about it.
Because I answer these questions before they were asked.

But alas, no one reads the things I say.
And then cites me for mistakes I never made.

[Amrun]

Poor Socio*

I unbookmarked this after he died and no one looked twice at mith.

I didn't want the stress.

Wisdom to accept the things I cannot change

DERP I MADE A HUMONGOUS FUCKING CASE ON MITH AND TRIED TO LYNCH HIM SO HARD BUT NO ONE WOULD LISTEN TO MY PERFECT READS AND I EVENTUALLY GAVE UP ON TRYING TO GET HIM LYNCHED BECAUSE NO ONE WOULD LISTEN.

It was pretty frustrating, especially seeing as I did the same thing for Llamarble and even got him to L-1.

But I talked myself out of my own perfect reads in the end.

It's nice to know I absolutely called the scum team on day 1 from the team qt, though. PERFECTLY.

[hasdgfas]

Fin. Final Team Mafia results here