Mini 1555 Board Game UPick Mafia--Game Over!

[morph the cat]

On the other hand ... say username is lynched today and he flips scum. Then have Morph agree to redirect us to target Quill tonight.

I sent this in.

belongs here

[Kdub]

I'm a bit surprised to be alive today. Let's hear everyone's night reports, then figure things out from there. Quill needs to confirm who he targeted, then Spy should reveal his result.

[SpyreX]

I really don't want to fuck around today much at all to come to the same end result we start with.

Unvote, Vote: Morph

[morph the cat]

SpyreX, please unvote and let me finish the shit I want to do before I'm hammered.

[Quill]

Very very brief post here, because I don't have time for more: I targeted Porkens last night, although I wish he would have let me say that. I'm curious as to why I would have motivated him differently today than the other day.

I'll have content that actually responds to last night later today if I can or early tomorrow at the latest, but I'm going to put in the response I didn't get to make to Hadrian, unformatted and unedited. I will put words that aren't mine in italics though, to make it readable somehow.

Hadrian Post #1580

WAIT A SECOND.

Quill - Why did you use your motivate night one on HighShroomish??? I just looked back at your day one reads and in not one nowhere not a little tiny place did I even see you remotely suggest you thought HighShroomish was town. Am I missing somewhere? Did my contrl-f not find the post where you change your mind on him?

If no, can you please explain for the class why you motivate someone *on a whim* you don't have a town read on?

TIA!

I was V/LA at the very end of Day 1 and didn’t get back until the middle of Night 1. When I did get back and read through the post, my former problems with HighShroomish (which were largely based on his inaction) had been resolved to the point that I was comfortable taking a chance on motivating him.

Here’s some of the specific things, looking back, that pushed me over the edge on HS:

HS Post #232

Explain why the people who are on your Vig-list causing you paranoia.

@Hadrian
Why do people have to deserve a vote? Because I don't want to vote somebody just because of some stupid ass shit just to have someone take me too seriously and reach a lynch while I'm away with me on the wagon because of said stupid ass shit.
Here's a question for you- why shouldn't people have to deserve a vote?

The better explanation he gave you over his decision not to vote was probably the main thing. For one thing, it’s a coherent playstyle decision. For another, it’s a really pro-town motivation, and if he’d been scum, stating this now would have locked him into this style of play for the rest of the game.

HS Post#238
I don't give a full reads list or really anymore than a couple reads in a post unless absolutely neccassary(I.e. L-1) It let's scum know who I could be convinced to mis-lynch.

I also thought this was an interesting perspective that I couldn’t see scum having, or at least stating.

His short interactions with Rolodex (#262, 277, 284) were sort of like icing on the cake.

Were there better motivation choices? Probably. But I didn’t have a ton of time to sit down and cross-examine everyone, especially since all I had to go on was Day 1 jabber and LMS’s modkill.

[Porkens]

Quill, no one is going to look cross-eyed at you for hammering morph.

[Porkens]

Well, I mean, that is to say if you are town

[morph the cat]

back and working on stuff tonight.

porkens, I don't care really if I'm today's lynch. I've been a mislynch waiting to happen since day 3. Maybe day 2. but I will fucking rage in the postgame if the day ends before I've had time to do more analysis. It will be confirmed town analysis with my flip and I hope it at least gets some consideration as such on day 6.

Before I'm hammered, I want to know whether I'm dead certain that Quill is the last scum.

Stop encouraging a premature hammer. It's fucking anti-town of you.

[morph the cat]

awesomeusername day 2.

I'm going to ignore his trajectory on madot and dead townies and focus on his interactions with living players aside from kdub. Once again, not paying much attention to what he posted about us, but it would be a pretty useful thing for someone who's not morph to have a look at and maybe compare the hostility trajectory compared to his interactions with madot esp on day 2 where he basically entreats madot to show up and give him a reason to unvote.

votes

472 - Surye
585 - Madot
724 - hiplop
800 - Madot

reads

No comprehensive reads list on day 2

interactions with Quill

502 points out a question from Quill to Surye that Surye hadn't answered.
800 asks about Quill's logic for thinking that highshroomish couldn't be scum with us.

interactions with SpyreX

585 says SpyreX looked very town day 1, but has slid since then based on inactivity. In the same post, he moves his vote to Madot saying he's had no reason to scumread Madot prior to the day 2 revelations. This is particularly interesting given Madot's activity level versus SpyreX' at that point.

800 - agrees with SpyreX that madot needs to come clean.

interactions with porkens

472 calls porkens town, and puzzled how porkens could have confirmed him as town. this is pretty interesting, given he knows he's not investigation immune, godfather, etc. suggests maybe he did the n1 kill? but Madot sort of claimed the kill by saying he could have had an undisclosed effect on it. meh. ooesn't really matter.

502 again calls into question porkens' confirming him as town.

505 mentions isoing porkens and finding minimal data about hiplop.

585 tells porkens he finds it scummy to try and pry role info out of hiplop.

800 tells porkens he'll give a straight up one-sided answer if porkens will ask a specific question

801 likes porken's explanation of what happened with madot and the kill.

829 agrees with porkens that hiplop and madot can't be scum together.

868 asks porkens again about pointing to something fence-sitty awesomeusername posted.

Spoiler: yeah I know, an interaction with me

Ok, I said I wasn't going to comment on his posts about me but holy shit 472 he lists a reply to both me and madot here:

@morph/Madotsuki (311/359): I recognize Surye’s playstyle. His activity was kinda spotty in the other game, which is why I wasn’t that surprised the same happened here (though it was more extreme this time). Having scanned a couple of town games of his overnight, he does have spells of inactivity as town (though he doesn’t have any completed town games since like 2011). In my game with him, he got caught out for jumping on a wagon with meh reasons and dodging questions. He hasn’t been dodging questions that I’ve noticed, but then again I doubt he’d get caught as scum for the same reasons twice in a row.

[morph the cat]

awesomeusername day 3

votes

1016 Peregrine

reads

1156 - comprehensive reads list:

Spoiler:

I've been second-guessing myself far more than is probably healthy, so I decided to think out loud a bit.

Porkens

I have very good reason to believe to be town.

SpyreX

is very likely to be town after yesterday's interactions with Madotsuki.

hiplop

is also very likely to be town after yesterday's interactions with Madotsuki.

This leaves a scum pool of morph, Quill, Kdub, PeregrineV, and Hadrian.

morph the cat

:

Why they're town

: Madotsuki tried to attack them. They don't make much sense as scum buddies with my other biggest suspects.

Why they're scum

: They talked about Madotsuki minimally but ended up hammering. Also gut/vibes. Also PoE.

Quill

:

Why he's town

: Posts read like they're coming from a town perspective, approaches issues in a town manner. A few of his posts strike me as hard to fake as scum.

Why he's scum

: Seems unwilling to draw attention. I don't like it when people try to slip under my radar.

Kdub

:

Why he's town

: Pro-town play. Seemed genuinely interested in scumhunting on Day 1. Also gut/vibes.

Why he's scum

: Defense of Madotsuki, done somewhat questionably. Posts seem careful. Also lots of my town-reads suspect him.

PeregrineV

:

Why he's town

: Seems confused in some ways, which is town (I think?). Strikes me as today's "easy lynch," if we have one.

Why he's scum

: This slot has given me the least reason to think they're town (PoE). Absence Day 2 fits nicely with Madotsuki's lack of help. Catch-up posts were subpar. Seems uncomfortable under pressure. Also, Surye was… rather sketchy.

Hadrian

:

Why he's town

: Pro-town play. Is focused and stays on task, seems legitimately interested in scumhunting. Some of his posts also strike me as hard to fake as scum (he

is

more experienced than Quill though).

Why he's scum

: Didn't support Madotsuki lynch. Has been borderline role-fishy at times.

All in all, here's my color-coded read list right now:

TOWN
Porkens
hiplop
SpyreX

Hadrian
Quill

Kdub
morph the cat

PeregrineV

SCUM

I'm seriously considering just sheeping Porkens/SpyreX/hiplop, but Porkens already agrees with me, SpyreX hasn't expressed much of an opinion, and hiplop thinks I'm scum so his reasoning's likely off. I think I'm happy leaving my vote on Peregrine (again), though I'm a bit concerned that he's the "easy mislynch." I really don't have a better scumread right now, and it's getting to that point in the day when we really need to be deciding on our lynch.

@morph: In 1084, you accused me of fishing, and I object to this. Everything else looks accurate, save that you're filling in my motivations incorrectly. I did find a (possibly rhetorical) question you asked me which I haven't addressed:

Wants to flip one to clear the other, and chooses to flip hoplop? Why this way and not the reverse given madot's comment about affecting the kill?

From the way hiplop was posting, I thought he had evidence that meant that if he was town, Madotsuki had to be scum; this is why I jumped on him for switching his vote to you. I don't recall finding any evidence that flipping Madotsuki would determine hiplop's alignment either way.

@Kdub's-scumhunting-is-shallow: Interesting point. Going to have to reread for this.

@hiplop: It's not so obvious to me why Kdub is scum. Instead of telling me why scum-Kdub would behave this way, can you tell me why town-Kdub wouldn't?

@Hadrian:

Would you agree with 1067, Hadrian?

You're skimming my posts, aren't you?

interactions with Quill

1018 compares Quill to kdub in terms of not messing up, saying that not messing up is more likely a scum trait because scum tend to be more careful. closest thing to a fos so far on Quill. Comes a game day later than the fading town read on SpyreX day 2.

1131 reaction to Quill's case on kdub - hedgy reaction, but mostly agrees with quill and questions kdub

interactions with SpyreX

996 - says that hiplop and spyrex aren't likely to be scum because of interactions with madot

1151 - answers SpyreX that his ability isn't conditional, agrees with SpyreX that more activity is needed.

interactions with porkens

1016 reacts positively to porken's comment that he'd misread his n1 results and aun wasn't as cleared as he thought. spoilers a wall of answers to porkens' questions.

1066 answers question about his first two posts of day 3 (didn't kill, and alignment)

relatively sparse game day for him, though the reads list was a pretty heavy duty stake in the ground. not a lot of scum-effort really needed since the bandwagon on peregrine was pretty decisive.

[Kdub]

I really don't want to fuck around today much at all to come to the same end result we start with.

Unvote, Vote: Morph

What was your result last night? If you saw morph making the kill, just say so and we can end this. If you saw Quill doing exactly what he said, then we can still just hammer morph and end this.

If you did anything else, you have some explaining to do.

[morph the cat]

awesomeusername day 4

votes

1279 Morph
1514 awesomeusername
1522 unvotes self ("I wanna hammer")
1524 Morph
1603 awesomeusername

reads

interactions with Quill

1278 - wants porkens or quill to go first in mass claim

1281 - morph-town/Quill-scum unlikely based on Quill claiming to roleblock us.

1345 - this is a pretty strong reversal from 1281. Now morph/quill team are the most likely.

1460Quill looking better*

1460 - wants to lynch us and postpone his lynch until day 5 assuming we flipped scum (lol). Quill looks better today (this was part of a push on hadrian). "don't have that much of a reason to think Quill is scum over Hadrian" Then, says morph/quill makes more sense than morph/hadrian

1517 tells Quill his townflip won't clear hadrian

1524 99% convinced morph and Quill

1566 morph has to be scum unless it's SpyreX/Quill

interactions with Spyrex

1345 - SpyreX unlikely to be scum because of interactions with madot, then waffles to say that SpyreX would make sense as scum with morph, Quill or Hadrian

1460SpyreX looking better (see 1460 under Quill for more detail)

1566 morph has to be scum unless it's SpyreX/Quill

1595 hadrian should be as cleared as SpyreX

interactions with porkens

1278 - changes up porkens' suggested claim order

1281 - says he can clear porkens

1345 - says he rolecopped porkens n1 and not losing his vote means porkens town. rolecopped nobody on n2 and kdub on n3. Says last scum are in {morph, Quill, Hadrian, SpyreX}. says leaning a morph/quill scum team.

Spoiler:

this one is pretty big, and pairing us with quill isn't the main reason I was thinking quill-town at the start of day 3, but it's a reason why. I'm not sure which group he'd put a scumbuddy in. It was already becoming questionable that he'd make it to endgame.

1348 - didn't rolecop anyone on n2 because of porkens. not sure what this meant

1382 - explains why he targeted porkens n1

1393 - explains abilities to porkens, says he'd be the best mislynch because of all the players he'd clear

My eyes are bleeding from all the wifom in his day 4 iso. :/

There's a little more stuff I want to go through in detail in aun's iso, but not via this sort of slice and dice.

[morph the cat]

I really don't want to fuck around today much at all to come to the same end result we start with.

Unvote, Vote: Morph

What was your result last night? If you saw morph making the kill, just say so and we can end this. If you saw Quill doing exactly what he said, then we can still just hammer morph and end this.

If you did anything else, you have some explaining to do.

Thank you. I was just getting ready to ask this question.

[morph the cat]

why didn't you redirect Quill per the plan?

On the other hand ... say username is lynched today and he flips scum. Then have Morph agree to

redirect us to target Quill

tonight.

I sent this in.

Hey porkens did you ever figure out that you HAD THE PLAN WRONG?

We were supposed to target Hadrian.

[Porkens]

There were multiple versions of the plan out there. I don't think you ever signed off on one; you could have said you were following "the plan" either way.

[morph the cat]

Which version of the plan did you think we were supposed to follow?

[morph the cat]

because when we saw the NK we thought the kill choice framed us, since we'd been told to target hadrian, and we followed through on it.

[SpyreX]

What was your result last night? If you saw morph making the kill, just say so and we can end this. If you saw Quill doing exactly what he said, then we can still just hammer morph and end this.

If you did anything else, you have some explaining to do.

It should be clear that because I didn't say either of those things I'd have some "explaining" to do.

Hadrian didn't go anywhere *rimshot*. In no universe did I expect them to actually BE the night kill (I honestly expected a NK last night).

Now, if we want to have an in-depth discussion about me not being scum at this point (referred to herein as the fumblefucking) it doesn't change a thing. Porkens is town. You are town. The game is won it is just a matter of going through the motions.

So if we've got to go through that lets go ahead. Or if you're really super scared we can do it tomorrow if there's a tomorrow (there wont be). Because if its Quill and he wants any chance at it he's killing Porkens tonight.

[Porkens]

why didn't you redirect Quill per the plan?

We did?

Cabd put the action in, and to my knowledge he followed the plan. He has PA on skype and has been sending our actions in that way.

This one.

[morph the cat]

What was your result last night? If you saw morph making the kill, just say so and we can end this. If you saw Quill doing exactly what he said, then we can still just hammer morph and end this.

If you did anything else, you have some explaining to do.

It should be clear that because I didn't say either of those things I'd have some "explaining" to do.

Hadrian didn't go anywhere *rimshot*. In no universe did I expect them to actually BE the night kill (I honestly expected a NK last night).

Now, if we want to have an in-depth discussion about me not being scum at this point (referred to herein as the fumblefucking) it doesn't change a thing. Porkens is town. You are town. The game is won it is just a matter of going through the motions.

So if we've got to go through that lets go ahead. Or if you're really super scared we can do it tomorrow if there's a tomorrow (there wont be). Because if its Quill and he wants any chance at it he's killing Porkens tonight.

Given where your vote is, there will be a tomorrow.

Why would you follow Hadrian given aun's flip?

[morph the cat]

why didn't you redirect Quill per the plan?

We did?

Cabd put the action in, and to my knowledge he followed the plan. He has PA on skype and has been sending our actions in that way.

This one.

Yeah that was my misread of your post. We redirected hadrian TO Quill.

Which day 4 plan said we'd target Quill? That's what I'm asking.

[Kdub]

It should be clear that because I didn't say either of those things I'd have some "explaining" to do.

Hadrian didn't go anywhere *rimshot*. In no universe did I expect them to actually BE the night kill (I honestly expected a NK last night).

Now, if we want to have an in-depth discussion about me not being scum at this point (referred to herein as the fumblefucking) it doesn't change a thing. Porkens is town. You are town. The game is won it is just a matter of going through the motions.

So if we've got to go through that lets go ahead. Or if you're really super scared we can do it tomorrow if there's a tomorrow (there wont be). Because if its Quill and he wants any chance at it he's killing Porkens tonight.

We can certainly have this discussion tomorrow if there is a tomorrow. We can also have this discussion today. Explain why you followed Hadrian instead of morph/Quill?

The "plan" was mostly in the event that awesome flipped town. Since that didn't happen, I said this yesterday:

If awesome flips scum, it almost doesn't matter what the night actions are because it's pretty close to a guaranteed town win. I'd say make your own decisions for actions and just don't do anything obviously stupid.

I would classify following Hadrdian as "obviously stupid". morph redirecting Hadrian wasn't much better.

I still think we lynch morph today, but if he flips town, I am not sold on SpyreX being town.

Porkens, what do you think about Spy's action last night?

[The Betting Pool]

Vote Count 5.01:

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch!

morph the cat (L-1): Porkens, SpyreX
Porkens (L-3):
Quill (L-3):
Spyrex (L-3):
Kdub (L-3):

Not Voting: morph the cat, Quill, Kdub

V/LA:

Deadline is in (expired on 2014-04-26 19:10:47)

[morph the cat]

I will get back to this in a couple of hours, but in case I get hammered while I'm on the road, I'll say this:

I think awesomeusername's play points to SpyreX-scum now that I've combed through it carefully. I want to go through and document his trajectories next, but the short version is that although I had thought that Quill was the blank player in his reads and interactions, it was actually SpyreX. His trajectory on Quill is more detailed and he came up with actual reasons for scumreading him. With SpyreX, the reasons for anything but a town read were vague and they never sharpened and focused. He was contradictory on both of them and on players he claimed to be able to clear, particularly his play just before the mass claims and just after.

[morph the cat]

SpyreX points out that he expected to be the n4 kill. There is some logic to that expectation . Logic of the "Why is SpyreX alive" school.