Mini 517: Tree Stump Mafia: Game Over


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Post Post #1625 (ISO) » Sun Mar 09, 2008 9:59 am

Post by Adel »

The Fonz wrote:We're at the three alive stage.

I'd like the stumps to discuss between themselves who they are most confident in being town. Then the other two of us should vote each other.
I find this agreeable, so long as we ignore Korlash.
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Post Post #1626 (ISO) » Sun Mar 09, 2008 11:13 am

Post by Thok »

Adele committed suicide and is now a Tree Stump. She was a

Wait, Adele was the last Mafia?

Game Over, Town Wins!
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Post Post #1627 (ISO) » Sun Mar 09, 2008 11:18 am

Post by mith »

Ah. Thank you, Thok. I seriously would've had to strangle Adele if you hadn't gotten on. Even though I was the one that told her she should go ahead and stump.

Good game scums. Comments later.
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Post Post #1628 (ISO) » Sun Mar 09, 2008 11:22 am

Post by Thok »

All roles are obvious: Mafia was Quagmire, MOS, Adele.

First an apology to the Mafia about the whole Glork replacing in thing. Not for him actually joining the game as a tree stump (if I had required him to replace d3sisted , town still would have won IMHO), but for not deciding before the game started how to handle the tree stump replacement issue and then being wishy-washy about the issue in thread.

(For reference, both MOS and Adele separately sent me PM's complaining about replacing tree stumps and specifically about having Glork replace into that position.)

The game mostly went how I anticipated it would go. I didn't expect Quagmire to self destruct immediately day 1, and I didn't quite anticipate Korlash. But I suspected that Tree Stumps would hurt town as much as they helped, mainly because stumping removes the cooling down effect of night. I'll note that the most useful Tree Stump was the one who replaced into the game.
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Post Post #1629 (ISO) » Sun Mar 09, 2008 11:24 am

Post by Glork »

I'd say I thoroughly dominated that one. :)
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Post Post #1630 (ISO) » Sun Mar 09, 2008 11:53 am

Post by Adel »

thanks for winning the game for us Glork.
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Post Post #1631 (ISO) » Sun Mar 09, 2008 12:01 pm

Post by DrippingGoofball »

Glork wrote:I'd say I thoroughly dominated that one. :)
I am amazed you were able to recognize I was town. Share your tricks with the others please!
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Post Post #1632 (ISO) » Sun Mar 09, 2008 3:04 pm

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

Thok wrote:The game mostly went how I anticipated it would go. I didn't expect Quagmire to self destruct immediately day 1, and I didn't quite anticipate Korlash. But I suspected that Tree Stumps would hurt town as much as they helped, mainly because stumping removes the cooling down effect of night. I'll note that the most useful Tree Stump was the one who replaced into the game.
No shit Sherlock. There's a damn good reason the mafia went to lengths to make sure that everyone who was a tree stump was either viewed as completely uncredible and would not be listened to by the town, or that they would be wrong even if they were listened to. The players that could benefit from being confirmed town were nont allowed the chance to become tree stumps. We killed Pooky night 1 and made sure mith was considered protown for most of the game. Had Glork not been allowed to replace into the game, Adel would've been misstumped and we probably could've quicklynched Mith based on The Fonz leading the charge against him.

For the record, I thought my scumbuddy was Adel. I distanced the fuck from her before I died. Ironically, the only person to read me correctly was The Fonz! LMAO...
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Post Post #1633 (ISO) » Sun Mar 09, 2008 3:35 pm

Post by Iammars »

Just curious Adele: why me?
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Post Post #1634 (ISO) » Sun Mar 09, 2008 4:25 pm

Post by Korlash »

Aww I really need to start taking my long analyzing posts seriously... D:

Oh well live and learn I always say... Ok I don't but I'll start... Ok I'll start tomorrow...
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Post Post #1635 (ISO) » Sun Mar 09, 2008 7:56 pm

Post by The Fonz »

Mastermind of Sin wrote: Had Glork not been allowed to replace into the game, Adel would've been misstumped and we probably could've quicklynched Mith based on The Fonz leading the charge against him.
Unlikely. I had it pretty clear that I felt Adele was more likely to be mafia than mith if Adel was innocent. Most of my suspicions of mith were based on a potential Adel connection.
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Post Post #1636 (ISO) » Sun Mar 09, 2008 11:05 pm

Post by mith »

Yeah, there was virtually no chance I was going down if Adel had stumped. I'm not even convinced she would've gotten a majority in the first place - but it's impossible to say, because Day 2 Part 5 would've played out entirely differently.

MoS, replacements are always annoying as scum, because they usually hurt you. That is, unfortunately, just something we have to deal with on the internet. I don't think you can blame Thok for this, though. As I kept saying, the tree stumps were still players in the game, and had to be treated as such.

Aside from the spirit of the game argument (which I think deserves it's own thread at some point), I think you have demonstrated a rather major flaw in the "I don't know who I'm scum with" ploy. Let's say there was one less townie (for whatever reason), and you got lynched. You've distanced Adel strongly. It comes down to a decision between Adele and Adel, and most everyone is fooled by your clever distancing. So Adele gets lynched... and you lose the game, because you didn't know who you were scum with.

The point is, if you have forgotten who you are scum with, and you guess based on what's going on in the game, either you will guess correctly (and so you might as well know for sure, because you're going to be playing that way) or you won't (and you're probably playing sub-optimally).

Also - if you thought Adel was scum with you, why didn't you just ensure Adele got lynched?

(For what it's worth, I would have voted for you when I did even if I had been
certain
that you wouldn't know who your buddy was as scum. I was pretty confident Adele was scum - based on reading her, not links - and it was as much or more Adel's behavior that persuaded me that she was less likely to be Adele's partner than you. I believed what I said - that your posts were consistent with behavior I would expect from a MoS/Adele pairing - so I got that wrong if you really didn't know she was scum.

Not that I'm entirely convinced you
didn't
know who you were scum with. If you really believe it's good play - and I hope to convince you otherwise - you have every reason to lie about it now to use as an example later on. But whatever.)

DripDrip, I'm hurt. :(

Adele, a lot of your posts were excellent. And I still can't quite put a finger on what it was about them that made you feel scummy. Two questions, though - well, first, like Iammars asked, why him? I don't think it mattered much, since you were clearly going down, but I was shocked when I saw that I was still alive. Second, now that the game is over - was I right about your stance on the stump-voting issue?
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Post Post #1637 (ISO) » Sun Mar 09, 2008 11:15 pm

Post by mith »

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Post Post #1638 (ISO) » Mon Mar 10, 2008 4:34 am

Post by PookyTheMagicalBear »

I for one am shocked that either MoS or Adele would kill poor me.

Heartbroken really.
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Post Post #1639 (ISO) » Mon Mar 10, 2008 5:07 am

Post by mith »

Yet you had no issue with thinking I did it? Hmph. I'm hurt, again.
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Post Post #1640 (ISO) » Mon Mar 10, 2008 5:10 am

Post by DrippingGoofball »

Alright mith, why did you think I was town???
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Post Post #1641 (ISO) » Mon Mar 10, 2008 5:16 am

Post by mith »

"Sincerity is something I look for as well, and as much as I disagree with most of what she says, she looks like she really believes it when she says it."

(In other words: mostly gut.)
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Post Post #1642 (ISO) » Mon Mar 10, 2008 6:05 am

Post by Mastermind of Sin »

mith wrote:Yeah, there was virtually no chance I was going down if Adel had stumped. I'm not even convinced she would've gotten a majority in the first place - but it's impossible to say, because Day 2 Part 5 would've played out entirely differently.

MoS, replacements are always annoying as scum, because they usually hurt you. That is, unfortunately, just something we have to deal with on the internet. I don't think you can blame Thok for this, though. As I kept saying, the tree stumps were still players in the game, and had to be treated as such.
Mod-Confirmed innocents are a little different from your standard replacement.
Aside from the spirit of the game argument (which I think deserves it's own thread at some point), I think you have demonstrated a rather major flaw in the "I don't know who I'm scum with" ploy. Let's say there was one less townie (for whatever reason), and you got lynched. You've distanced Adel strongly. It comes down to a decision between Adele and Adel, and most everyone is fooled by your clever distancing. So Adele gets lynched... and you lose the game, because you didn't know who you were scum with.

The point is, if you have forgotten who you are scum with, and you guess based on what's going on in the game, either you will guess correctly (and so you might as well know for sure, because you're going to be playing that way) or you won't (and you're probably playing sub-optimally).

Also - if you thought Adel was scum with you, why didn't you just ensure Adele got lynched?
I didn't think the Adele wagon needed my help. Adele was leading the votes most of the time against the competing Adel wagon, so it was a win-win situation for me. Either Adele gets stumped and I'm not responsible for it, or Adel gets lynched and I look really good. The game wouldn't have ended if Adele got stumped, so there was no reason for me to go out of my way to push it. I didn't expect everyone to all of a sudden stop going after Adele and try to kill me.
(For what it's worth, I would have voted for you when I did even if I had been
certain
that you wouldn't know who your buddy was as scum. I was pretty confident Adele was scum - based on reading her, not links - and it was as much or more Adel's behavior that persuaded me that she was less likely to be Adele's partner than you. I believed what I said - that your posts were consistent with behavior I would expect from a MoS/Adele pairing - so I got that wrong if you really didn't know she was scum.

Not that I'm entirely convinced you
didn't
know who you were scum with. If you really believe it's good play - and I hope to convince you otherwise - you have every reason to lie about it now to use as an example later on. But whatever.)
*shrug* You can ask Thok. I pmed him after I died to double-check who my partner was. It's not that I tried to forget who my partner was, I just got it wrong. Since we hadn't had a night in a long time, I didn't have any reason to remember who my partner was, but I thought I remembered despite that. I was very much lying in this instance about forgetting who my partner was, but not because I knew it was Adele. I *thought* it was Adel, and I was essentially forced to adopt a non-optimal playstyle because I *couldn't* forget it was her.

I think this setup has two big flaws in it. The first is that mod-confirmed tree stumps are a huge boon for the town when you allow them to be replaced. None of the tree stumps besides Glork were given any credit when they voiced their opinions, and I worked my hardest to make sure that happened. The stumps seemed to be less interested in the game because the town treated them like dirt, and I
wanted
it to be that way. That was part of my strategy to counteract the fact that they were mod-confirmed innocents. By replacing them when they finally lost interest to the point of no longer posting in the game, the mafia's best strategy against the town has been taken away by the mod.

Secondly, the fact that this is nightless (for the most part) hurts the mafia a lot. I believe this setup would be improved if the mafia were allowed more regular communication, because part of the balance between and informed minority and an uninformed majority is that they can strategize things. Any strategies we would've made on Night 1 when we killed Pooky are hardly relevant after getting 4 people to stump. The fact that we couldn't talk to each other meant that we each had to play our own game and wonder wtf the other person was doing. Even worse, in this case, was that the lack of communication caused me to mistake who my partner was. Ironically, I think if my plan had succeeded, it would have lost the game for us, since my lack of involvement in an Adele lynch would've probably doomed me to lynch myself, once I realized my mistake.
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Post Post #1643 (ISO) » Mon Mar 10, 2008 7:05 am

Post by mith »

MoS wrote:Mod-Confirmed innocents are a little different from your standard replacement.
Sure, and I understand the gripe. I just don't think it's something that could/should have been handled differently.

And as I said in the Scummies Nom thread, I certainly don't feel like Glork single-handedly won us the game. It's natural to view it that way, with him coming in after four straight town stumps and nailing the scum group, but this setup has a stronger-than-normal element of "unlynchable innocents" being powerful, as the scum only has two chances to kill. It's impossible to predict how things would have gone if SP had remained unreplaced, but we were in good shape. I was virtually unlynchable unless Adel came up scum, and had fairly successfully pushed the you/Adele/Adel trio as containing the two scum.
None of the tree stumps besides Glork were given any credit when they voiced their opinions, and I worked my hardest to make sure that happened. The stumps seemed to be less interested in the game because the town treated them like dirt, and I
wanted
it to be that way.
I'm not convinced there's a cause-effect relationship here. If anything, the stumps weren't listened to because they weren't paying attention to the game/taking it seriously. SP's flaking in particular clearly had nothing to do with our treatment of him - he contributed a little and was listened to before he vanished.

Like I said, I know what you're saying about replacements being a pain for the Mafia sometimes - I've been there - but I think it's more an issue with replacements in general than with something specific to this game.
Secondly, the fact that this is nightless (for the most part) hurts the mafia a lot. I believe this setup would be improved if the mafia were allowed more regular communication, because part of the balance between and informed minority and an uninformed majority is that they can strategize things.
I don't consider this a "flaw" - Nightless games aren't exactly uncommon, and dealing with that is just a part of the game. But giving the scum some time after each stumping to communicate could be an improvement I could get behind.
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Post Post #1644 (ISO) » Mon Mar 10, 2008 7:21 am

Post by The Fonz »

Adele, why did you kill Mars and not mith?
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Post Post #1645 (ISO) » Mon Mar 10, 2008 9:32 am

Post by Adele »

mith wrote:MoS, replacements are always annoying as scum, because they usually hurt you. That is, unfortunately, just something we have to deal with on the internet. I don't think you can blame Thok for this, though. As I kept saying, the tree stumps were still players in the game, and had to be treated as such.
I disagree
entirely
with this. First, I saw stumps less as confirmed townies who happened not to be able to vote and more as dead people who happened to be able to speak (I think that was my view of it even before I was allocated a role). Second, more important - there was
nothing
we could do as scum to get rid of Glork. He couldn't be nightkilled even on those one-in-eternity occasions that we went to night.
mith wrote:Adele, a lot of your posts were excellent.
:oops: :) thank you.
mith wrote:And I still can't quite put a finger on what it was about them that made you feel scummy.
Bah. Well, as I'll explain below, I think this setup was actually very much balanced against the scum, so there may have been a tinge of desperation.
mith wrote:Two questions, though - well, first, like Iammars asked, why him? I don't think it mattered much, since you were clearly going down, but I was shocked when I saw that I was still alive
Well, who was saying "if MoS is scum, Adele's town"? I was pretty much done for. I guess I felt like there was a higher chance - though it was a desperate one, again - of forcing you to stump than him.
mith wrote:Second, now that the game is over - was I right about your stance on the stump-voting issue?
...
no
, actually. I genuinely believed when the idea was brought up that stumps were across-the-board worse players than the living (in part, I'd like those stumps to note, because the living were some of the most reputable players on the site). Perhaps I overdefended my stance (I'm starting to think I do that; take what I consider to be the right stance for town to take as scum - which is why I suggested the pseudovoting so early - but then overdefending it when people come down on me), but certainly my original opinion of your idea was "no, town shouldn't do that, it'll be counterproductive to them".
pooks wrote:I for one am shocked that either MoS or Adele would kill poor me.

Heartbroken really.
... that was me, sorry. I thought we had to get rid of the best player possible, so it was between you and mith - and I was starstruck and wanted to play him. (
so
over that now (:) (jk)
MoS wrote:I didn't expect everyone to all of a sudden stop going after Adele and try to kill me.
Yeah, that was a shocker.
MoS wrote:Mod-Confirmed innocents are a little different from your standard replacement.
Let alone, as I say, mod-confirmed, unlynchable, Unnightkillable innocents. I mean,
come on
! lol

_____

So, why was this game, to my mind, unbalanced?

I'll foreword this with a basic idea: that 3vs9 is the correct balance for mountainous (I believe?), while tree stump is a mild power role, so town has the equivalent of 2-ish full-strength power-roles.

Well, first off, as I've said, the mechanic works to keep the stronger players around - the scum has to progressively deal with the weakest townies being weeded out while only getting to weed out stronger townies on the
two
nights when they come around. Second, yes, it's essentially nightless. Basically, scum get 2 chances to kill town of choice, one chance to communicate. And we were, as is usual, rushed to get night over with - I don't think I fully realised that that would be my
last
opportunity to talk to my scumbuddy. Which was, I grant, dumb of me.
Also, premature stumping is heavily discouraged from early on. Only the most foolish players will go down that path - while a dumb lynch in a normal game leads to two townie deaths, a dumb stump leads equivalently to
half
a townie death as the votes required are adjusted (if you get what I mean).
Finally, there's
no
downside to townies stumping when in severe trouble, and
no
upside to scum stumping... ever. (:P)

I would, however, be
really interested
to play a version in which the alignment of the tree stumps was not revealed. That'd be
so good
. In fact I pre-in for it being run by anyone, ever.
Or even an SK in the mix would've been good.

Also, I don't want to be put on the same side as Quagmire! Had he been town, the game would've been very different - though probably just as impossible. :evil:
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Post Post #1646 (ISO) » Mon Mar 10, 2008 9:50 am

Post by mith »

I'll foreword this with a basic idea: that 3vs9 is the correct balance for mountainous (I believe?), while tree stump is a mild power role, so town has the equivalent of 2-ish full-strength power-roles.
12 player Mountainous games are 2-10. Mafia have won all (or almost all) of them. (EV-wise, 50-50 is around 19-21 players for 2 Mafia. EV for 2-10 is 35.2%)

EV for this game was 38.7% for the Town. After the Quag lynch it was up to 54.6%. And back down to 43.2% after the two premature stumpings (which were pretty much gifts to the scum).

So, no, the game wasn't unbalanced in favor of the town. (Though I agree that it is a
difficult
setup for the scum.)
I would, however, be
really interested
to play a version in which the alignment of the tree stumps was not revealed. That'd be so good. In fact I pre-in for it being run by anyone, ever.
This, I really like.
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Post Post #1647 (ISO) » Mon Mar 10, 2008 10:02 am

Post by Thok »

For what it's worth, part of the reason for running this game was as a Beta test. I'd suggest cross-referencing some of the set up discussion with the Open Game discussion thread.

Another relevant data point is 4-8 Nightless (of which town has won several, although both cases I know of involved fairly strong town play.)

3-9 was chosen as a halfway point between 2-10 Mountainous and 4-8 Nightless. When I made the setup I was deciding between 3-9 and 2-10; the fact that others wanted 4-8 when I discussed this made me decide towards 3-9. (I remember Shadowlurker arguing for either 4-8 or a night start, for example.)
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Post Post #1648 (ISO) » Mon Mar 10, 2008 10:13 am

Post by Adele »

night start would've helped.
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Post Post #1649 (ISO) » Mon Mar 10, 2008 10:15 am

Post by mith »

Adele wrote:First, I saw stumps less as confirmed townies who happened not to be able to vote and more as dead people who happened to be able to speak (I think that was my view of it even before I was allocated a role).
They were "dead", sure - it's in the role PM. But as long as they are able to influence the game in any way they are still
players
. That, to me, is the whole point of the Tree Stump role - that the player can avoid being taken out of the game entirely.

I still feel like the main complaint here is that a "weak" player was replaced with a strong one - which can happen with any replacement - not that a stump was replaced at all.
Second, more important - there was
nothing
we could do as scum to get rid of Glork. He couldn't be nightkilled even on those one-in-eternity occasions that we went to night.
How relevant is this, really? He was in for one lynch (no stumps) before you went to night, and if he had vanished at that point it wouldn't have affected the outcome in the slightest.

(Though I wouldn't be opposed to a variant where the scum could choose to eliminate a stump permanently instead of a live tree.)
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