I just realised why Scorpious could make sense as NK if real town.
Scorpious very early posted townpicks. Of course he didn't submit 1-Shot Neapolitan, but submitted JOAT and other roles. Mafia certanly could have notice that faster than we did (No one even noticed lol).
This is possible.
The way I see it is either zefiend and his team no killed for a miselimination or Scorpious is scum.
Right now, I am thinking massclaim might be in order. We've got a lot on the table and arguably a leashable jailkeeper
Well, yes, if Dwlee is town then I would think those two would have a much much higher chance of being scum.
I am pretty damn sure there's a minimum of 1 town in {House, Enchant} with a fairly high chance both are town.
Given {Taly, Titus, Greeting, Scorpious} as town, that narrows down the scum to 2-3 (with a fairly high chance of being 3) of:
{Galron, zefiend, Dwlee99, Flea the Magician}.
(I admit my townread on Scorpious is not as strong as the townreads on Taly/Titus/Greeting, or for that matter House/Enchant but I still think Scorpious is unlikely to be scum here.)
If that pool of four has 2-3 scum in it, then one flipping town basically confirms the rest as scum imo.
Here she's got 1-2 scum among {Galron, zefiend, Dwlee99, Flea the Magician}. Flea was green, and I'm willing to believe zefiend's claim atp. So she's
confirming dwlee and me as scum. But she couches that prognostication with IF that group of four has 2-3 scum in it, which gives it faulty legs to begin with. So even though she's sticking with her plan, it's based on a faulty premise. She got there by assuming {Taly, Titus, Greeting, Scorpious} as town; and she got
there
by assuming at least one town (likely both) in {House, Enchant}.
The problem here is if one of {House, Enchant} is not town, how does that change the rest of the forecast? Or, if one or more of {Taly, Titus, Greeting, Scorpious} isn't town, how does that change the forecast?
And we know that Flea was town, can speculate pretty heavily that zefiend is town, and I know that I am town, so that leaves one scum in that grouping of four.
This rundown contains to many unanswered contingencies. All we're doing is working our way up mastina's layers from here:
In post 143, Greeting wrote:I didn't mean technicalities, I meant the method itself. Some players submitted town preference, some submitted scum preference. Some townies might have submitted scum preference. What if scums lie about scum preference and those townies who submitted scum preference didn't lie and simply didn't get it? This is what I'm sceptical about.
Well about that.
If Enchant was serious about submitting scum preference, then I'm pretty sure that if the mod gave everyone their stated preference?
We have three scum who submitted scum preference and then either refused to state their alignment preference (Cheeky, Meg) or lied about it and said they had town preference. (Technically, they could lie and say 'no preference', but I've reason to believe that everyone who claimed 'No Preference' is actually town here, just off of who the names claiming no preference are. I don't think scum truthfully claimed no preference given Enchant, and I don't think scum lied about it being no preference given who the names are and basic psychology in mafia play in that mafia would be afraid to claim 'no preference' if they thought that claiming no preference would make them more likely to be seen as a scum candidate.)
Spoiler: Notes
TOWN
PREFERENCE:
mastina
House
Scorpious
Yume
Greeting
Flea the Magician
CheekyTeeky (after much resistance)
ɀefiend
Between the players having stated town and the player refusing to state a preference, we have 9/13 players.
So what this tells me:
Taly
and Titus are town;
Galron is
probably
town.
If Enchant is town, which he probably is, then all three scum would be in those that didn't claim or claimed town.
Removing myself, that pool?
{House, Scorpious, Yume, Greeting, Flea the Magician, CheekyTeeky, ɀefiend, MegAzumarill}.
Of those players?
Greeting has no completed scumgames per their wiki. They have four towngames and zero scumgames. The preference for a towngame is probably thus true and accurate. So
Greeting is town
.
Scorpious's wiki leaves it unclear, but very loosely imo indicates that town is
slightly
more likely.
House I think has stated his town/scum preference before, but I sadly can't remember it and he has no real wiki so I have to keep him in the pool
for now
until I track it down.
Ditto for Flea; fae might've stated faer preference but I can't remember it.
Yume might've stated preference on one of her accounts but thanks to the number of them I can't track it down.
If Cheeky has stated her preference previously, I don't know it.
zefiend is impossible to track; ditto, for Meg.
So sadly, that doesn't narrow the pool down as much as I want, but it still helps as a
starting
point.
It gives us 3/7.5 names as scum from a narrowed list.
Not quite 50% odds of hitting scum, but 40% odds of hitting scum beats the default 25% we'd have otherwise (3/12).
And from this, we can get into the reads on players from that list.
{House,
Scorpious
, Yume, Flea the Magician, CheekyTeeky, ɀefiend, MegAzumarill}
Cheeky's play looks like scum;
Meg's play looks like scum.
Even if both are scum, that'd leave 1/4 of the remaining prime suspects as candidates.
In post 164, ɀefiend wrote:What mastina is doing both scum!mastina and town!mastina could do; the act is merely Information Instead of Analysis, which is NAI. However there are some flaws, and although I have no way to prove it, what mastina says about what everyone submitted is not 100% true.
I submitted town preference overall, but all three of my scum roles were rejected (which seems ridiculous reading what some of y'all claim to submitted) -- so I was assigned a Vanilla preference if rolling scum.
I will also be keeping my own notes on people's claims, but if someone wants to neighborize me into mastina's PT so that I don't have to keep notes, it would be appreciated.
Not enough petty arguments to generate any reads yet.
This makes me lean town on zefiend.
Which leaves 1-3 scum in {House, Yume, Flea the Magician}.
I could see it being any of them, but while I can't read House worth a damn, loosely, I think his contributions are town. I think 102 was accurate regardless (if House is scum, he was the scum; otherwise, it's probably Meg), and find the Cheeky House vote there sus.
If I had to go gun to my head, I'd say that in {Yume, Flea, House}, towniest to scummiest it'd be House > Yume > Flea.
So right now, I'm thinking:
All 3 scum are in {CheekyTeeky, MegAzumarill, House, Yume, Flea the Magician};
CheekyTeeky and MegAzumarill have a high chance of being scum;
House is less likely scum;
There's 1-2 scum in {Yume, Flea the Magician};
There's basically a guaranteed scum, 1-2, in {CheekyTeeky, MegAzumarill}
.
And we keep hitting green, except for Cheeky who was green most likely hit by scum.
Posted: Mon Jan 24, 2022 1:28 pm
by Taly
scumreading
mastina
is illegal
*pecks galron*
Posted: Mon Jan 24, 2022 1:34 pm
by Greeting
I just realised. We have 10 players left, with a miselim Day 3 and a successful NK Night 3, we are down to 8 players Day 4. Miselimination Day 4 leads to 7 players Night 4 and a successful NK 6 players Day 5, of whom half will be scum.
So, if we miseliminate again, and the town Power Roles fail, next Day will be ELo.
Can someone please confirm if that is correct?
Posted: Mon Jan 24, 2022 1:36 pm
by Taly
It is currently 7:3
If we mislim and town is Nked, it will be 5:3 D4.
And yeah that is elo. Shit.
Posted: Mon Jan 24, 2022 1:37 pm
by Titus
Miselimination today takes us to 9, 3 scum
Assume successful NK, 8, 3 scum.
No elimination.
Successful NK, 7 alive, three scum.
A miselimination takes us to melo.
Posted: Mon Jan 24, 2022 1:37 pm
by Taly
Titus
what's the benefit to massclaiming now and not next day phase?
Posted: Mon Jan 24, 2022 1:37 pm
by Greeting
Thank you,
Taly
. It's 1:30 am and my brain only now started working.
Now, do we know how many town Power Roles we have?
Posted: Mon Jan 24, 2022 1:38 pm
by Titus
In post 1637, Greeting wrote:I just realised. We have 10 players left, with a miselim Day 3 and a successful NK Night 3, we are down to 8 players Day 4. Miselimination Day 4 leads to 7 players Night 4 and a successful NK 6 players Day 5, of whom half will be scum.
So, if we miseliminate again, and the town Power Roles fail, next Day will be ELo.
In post 1637, Greeting wrote:I just realised. We have 10 players left, with a miselim Day 3 and a successful NK Night 3, we are down to 8 players Day 4. Miselimination Day 4 leads to 7 players Night 4 and a successful NK 6 players Day 5, of whom half will be scum.
So, if we miseliminate again, and the town Power Roles fail, next Day will be ELo.
