https://forum.mafiascum-staging.net/
In post 1308, Irrelephant11 wrote:Day 2 has strengthened my townread on Aristeia and my scumread on mena
Datisi and skitter are each, if scum, knocking it out of the park.
In post 1376, Irrelephant11 wrote:Yes I absolutely disagreeIn post 1346, Not Known 15 wrote:We are flipping Aristeia. If Ari is town, we are flipping skitter. If Ari is scum, we flip Datisi. Does anyone disagree?
Trust me I’ll have lots to say when not on v/laIn post 1372, Aristeia wrote:i dont have enough from the two that aren't talking rn
Menalque has not posted in day 2. His entire ISO reads fake to me and skitter has him as locktown for not trying very hard. STD is semi-conftown and being entirely ignored! I’ve skimmed everything after 1333 because Datisi and skitter are pushing skitter for being inconsistent and thoughtless (does that sound like her scum game?) and skitter is pushing Datisi. Fire at one point suggested Menalque is my last-minute attempt to find a mislim inside the coalition which… lol I was trying to push Menalque out of the coalition att. I feel like everyone has lost their minds and refuses to even consider Occam’s razor: low-poster is scum. Like - at least consider it? I’ll write the same thing but in 900-word paragraphs if that’s the only way to get through to you people
In post 1377, Irrelephant11 wrote:EBWOP: “Skitter is pushing Datisi for lame reasons too imo”.
In post 1412, Irrelephant11 wrote:In post 1381, Datisi wrote:so the scumteam is nk/mala and ydrasse is trolling us?In post 1376, Irrelephant11 wrote:Occam’s razor: low-poster is scum.
i'm like, i will consider scum!mena. but i need a bit more to actually convince me he's viable to be scum considering i feel like he has hit multiple towntells while he's been here...
Obviously not
but I do think the most likely team is [lowest poster in the coalition] + [lowest poster outside the coalition] AKA mena/nk15
I think the strongest point in town!std’s and scum!mena’s favor(s) is the competing wagons. The majority wagon flipped red, and I do currently think that’s a lot of scum points towards the 3 who were both in the coalition and voting for it. But then I think datisi and aristeia are town. So: Menalque. This is not my entire case, it’s just a major point nobody has brought up, full case will come tomorrow (or you know, read StD’s posts/interact with him like he might be seeing something you’re not, instead of waiting for me). @skitter and @datisi, you’ve both acknowledged at least one weird thing about menalque’s ISO recently iirc. Nobody is saying you have to lim him, just to give him more scrutiny than “until someone PROVES BEYOND A SHADOW OF A DOUBT I WILL NEVER VOTE THERE”
Oh also the only people pushing menalque this game day are
A. outside the coalition
B. Me (and I know I’m not scum)
Which makes the idea that he’s low-hanging fruit not ring true for me. YMMV
Tbh skitter suggesting menalque is the one place she’d basically never vote is the scummiest thing she’s done this game. I get a townread on menalque but also… is it TMI? Partners, which is why she wanted StD in instead? This is why skitter is 5% less town than datisi/aristeia. That said I don’t actually think skitter is scum at all, really.
This is what datisi/aristeia/skitter feel like imo.
why would scum!skitter defend scum!mena in this game state?In post 1625, Irrelephant11 wrote:I don't want skitter to be scum, @aristeia @std @fire please determine if this is tvt or tvs so I can proceed accordingly
In post 1622, Irrelephant11 wrote:In post 1616, skitter30 wrote:and you havent explained why this is inherently *scummy* of him, just not townieIf the other scum is in the coalition, limming outside of it has obvious scum benefitIn post 1512, Irrelephant11 wrote:bleh I think menalque's entrance does feel towny actually but his actual *actions* (to try to lim outside the coalition) are pretty scummy with obvious scum motivation (e.g. the towny townies in the coalition are too towny to win against in a 1v1, both scum might be in the coalition, etc)
If the other scum is outside the coalition, limming std is the only real direction mena can go that has any town momentum (see: the PL's inability to townread std day 1)
Either way, playing bizarre has scum benefit by being WIFOM-y. Playing bizarre isn't something townies do unless they're, like, hiding a PR
Ok again one of the Big points that you're pointing to as being damning is nk15 voting him into the coalition which is only damning if he's partners with nk15In post 1619, Irrelephant11 wrote:I do think NK15 is his partner, I'm at like 50% confidence that's the scumteam. 50% confidence the scumteam is anything else. But mena regardless of if he's scum with you (didn't want him in the coalition because it makes today harder), datisi (got his way EOD1 to get him in), or malakittens (mena got lucky and nk15 is just an anti-town townie), it doesn't change the fact that mena is very much the scummiest in the coalition, his actions make no sense for town to be doing, he's playing bizarrely only because I and StD have given him no room to maneuver, and he's not even trying to sort within the coalition. So if nk15/mena isn't the team it's still him. Like FINE I'll MAKE THE FULL CASE in a few hours it just feels so blatantly obvious that the fact that you have him anywhere higher than [mm not sure] is so. weird to me
Ok but he knows as scum that it'll be *immensely* scummy for him if he flips town outside of the coalitionIn post 1622, Irrelephant11 wrote:In post 1616, skitter30 wrote:and you havent explained why this is inherently *scummy* of him, just not townieIf the other scum is in the coalition, limming outside of it has obvious scum benefitIn post 1512, Irrelephant11 wrote:bleh I think menalque's entrance does feel towny actually but his actual *actions* (to try to lim outside the coalition) are pretty scummy with obvious scum motivation (e.g. the towny townies in the coalition are too towny to win against in a 1v1, both scum might be in the coalition, etc)
If the other scum is outside the coalition, limming std is the only real direction mena can go that has any town momentum (see: the PL's inability to townread std day 1)
Either way, playing bizarre has scum benefit by being WIFOM-y. Playing bizarre isn't something townies do unless they're, like, hiding a PR
No, and this is also manipulativeIn post 1623, Irrelephant11 wrote::roll:
how about we flip mena and then you can flip me if it's green. deal?
I dont think i should be scumreading himIn post 1624, Irrelephant11 wrote:I made it significantly clear that I scumread him and you should be tooIn post 1620, skitter30 wrote:I mean if this is you asking me to vote mena:In post 1613, Irrelephant11 wrote:skitter why don't you want to vote scum
- i made it significantly clear that i townread him
- this is very manipulative and is casting me in the 'wrong' for not voting someone that we dont know is scum rn
It only casts you in a bad light if he flips red?? There's 0 worlds where I pivot to limming you today
I hear you. You're right that this is a point I've emphasized, and that it could be invalid if they're not the team (though don't you suspect NK15 of being an outside-the-coalition goon too?). I have a wide variety of reasons to scumread menalque, though, and just have thought the case was becoming so obvious I could just point out a few things that stick out to me, like the point about him/nk15 being a very likely team. When I write my full scumcase in a few hours I'll write it as if NK15 doesn't exist, so you and I both can see if the case still holds upIn post 1631, skitter30 wrote:And if nk15 isnt the partner, your point abt: it looks like scum pushed to get mena into the coalition
No it's not. How is it manipulative? It's me honoring what you think is happening: me trying to make you look scummy by the way you're treating mena's slot. But the idea that I'm trying to make you look scummy depends on the idea that menalque flips red. Otherwise, if he flips green, I'm just asking a dumb question that makes me look scummy and you look towny. So your vote on me only makes sense in a world where mena has already flipped red. So I'm suggesting we take that path together.In post 1633, skitter30 wrote:No, and this is also manipulativeIn post 1623, Irrelephant11 wrote:
how about we flip mena and then you can flip me if it's green. deal?
EBWOPIn post 1637, Irrelephant11 wrote:No it's not. How is it manipulative? It's me honoring what you think is happening: me trying to make you look scummy by the way you're treating mena's slot. But the idea that I'm trying to make you look scummy depends on the idea that menalque flips red. Otherwise, if he flips green, I'm just asking a dumb question that makes me look scummy and you look towny. So your vote on me only makes sense in a world where mena has already flipped. So I'm suggesting we take that path together.In post 1633, skitter30 wrote:No, and this is also manipulativeIn post 1623, Irrelephant11 wrote:
how about we flip mena and then you can flip me if it's green. deal?
I think she can get mala/nk killed fairly easily if she turns on mena and that gets her to elo. it makes much more sense than defending him here.In post 1629, Irrelephant11 wrote:hmmm good point
town!skitter can't see the case and defends weird-townie from Irrelephant who's spearheading a mislim
scum!skitter knows if her partner goes down she can't get three mislims before it turns on her, as someone who's been named as a potential partner?
Yeah I guess the first is a little more likely? Let me write it out:
Scum!skitter who turns around on mena chains mena > NK15 > mala > datisi/aristeia
Whereas defending mena, she goes Irrelephant > mena > NK15 > mala
Well wait now that I've written out I feel like the second does sound like a better route for scum her?
why didn't I re-evaluate one of my top scumreads when he made it into the failed coalition? The answer is in the question.In post 1636, skitter30 wrote:And again given mena and irrel's respective townreads/trajectories going into this part of the day, i dont think the difference you're making holds merit
what a bizarre question. He gets limmed today or does something outside the box so that he doesn't get limmed today. the second almost always better, elo plans or notIn post 1632, skitter30 wrote:So like ... why is he tanking his chances kf winning in nk15/mena ?
I've thought it through more than skitter thinks but less than if I quit my job and only played mafiaIn post 1644, Aristeia wrote:Irrel how sure are you that Mena is scum? cuz if you/him are T/T and one of skitter/datisi is WKing mena we are going to lose at the current trajectory.
I am not sure you've actually thought this out for very long.
I think there's more room than you suggest for scum!skitter to WIFOM post-mena-flip that she would not defend scum!mena so hard, using reasoning similar to what you're saying right nowIn post 1642, Aristeia wrote:like if she yeets town!you here - I think mena/her just get chain flipped on d2/3? so it doesnt seem like a very good plan for scum!her to defend scum!mena
who do you think is scum in the coalitionIn post 1644, Aristeia wrote:Irrel how sure are you that Mena is scum? cuz if you/him are T/T and one of skitter/datisi is WKing mena we are going to lose at the current trajectory.
I am not sure you've actually thought this out for very long.
