Mini 1555 Board Game UPick Mafia--Game Over!

[Porkens]

So here's the plan:

If I'm town:

Hadrian will be cleared for not hammering me (he posted while I was at L-1; scum-Hadrian wins today by hammering town).

So the scum are morph and Quill (let's ignore SpyreX; it's pretty unlikely he's scum).

If I'm scum:

morph redirects Hadrian onto Quill (I was wrong, it has to be that way because Porkens knows Hadrian can't interfere).
SpyreX follows morph (to verify he does what he's supposed to and to check whether morph makes a kill).

If Quill dies, we can lynch morph and Hadrian (again, SpyreX probably isn't scum).
If Quill survives and someone else dies, Hadrian is cleared and we can lynch morph and Quill. (SpyreX can tell us which one.)
If nobody dies, we can no-lynch and try again tomorrow night. If scum continues to no-kill and we need to break the cycle, lynch Quill before morph and Hadrian since repeating these actions doesn't work as well without morph or Hadrian (because we know Hadrian can't interfere), and stick Porkens in Quill's old spot.

Ohh shot. Guess I did have it wrong. Redirecting Hadrian to quill doesn't make sense, so I misread it. My bad.

Kdub, I thought Hadrian was a pretty fine pick for AUN's partner, and they had claimed no night actions, so it seems like a fine target for Spyrex.

[Quill]

Obviously I'm in the pool of us who think following Hadrian was a terrible, terrible move, so I'll also be eagerly waiting more of Spyrex's rationale/explanation for that.

I had absolutely no intention of hammering Morph this early in the day, and if I wasn't so convinced that Porkens is town, I'd be more suspicious of the suggestion that I should. But as it is, we're down to Morph and Spyrex (or me), so we should be able to PoE this out.

The Hadrian kill gives us two possibilities, as I see it.

No. 1: Spyrex is scum, and he killed them to frame Morph. (Hell, he could have followed Morph instead of Hadrian too, just to make sure Morph's action didn't do anything crazy that screwed with his plan) The problem here is that I don't know what Spyrex's motivation to kill Hadrian is. He's not the lynchpin of the plan that confirms him as town (Morph is, because he's the only one who can prove that Hadrian didn't submit a kill if I don't die), and his Gladiator ability was basically nerfed because as town he'd promised not to use it today. But it could just be as simple as having to kill one of the two confirmed town today and happening to pick Hadrian.

No. 2: Morph is scum, and killed Hadrian because he couldn't kill anyone else in case Spyrex decided to follow him. It also has the benefits of him being able to take out someone who he was about to confirm as town, and wring his hands about it after. There is the caveat that killing Hadrian means they once again have to use their power without any possible confirmation of it, but then again targeting Hadrian would have done that even if they'd lived, since they didn't have a night action, just the gladiate.

Morph makes the most sense out of those two possibilities, but before I vote I want to go through Spyrex's interactions myself. If he is scum, I think it might show in Day 2, when he was having that back-and-forth with Hiplop and Mado.

[morph the cat]

I'm Go. Alternating Voyeur/Follower - I dont see WHO, just what type(s) of abilities they get targeted with.

he said that N1 he voyeured hiplop so n4 was a follow.

Quill, if SpyreX followed me n4 he would have gotten the action I performed, not who I performed it on. But, he followed hadrian instead so meh.

The main reason we stuck with the plan was to not do something unexpected that could throw off putatively town night actions on a night that could have led to some useful PoE. If we had been scumhunting last night, we would have targeted either you or SpyreX, probably. And we would probably have directed whoever we chose onto ourselves again, with an incriminating post restriction.

Anyway, I'm ok with being today's lynch provided SpyreX doesn't get an automatic pass tomorrow.

[Kdub]

Kdub, I thought Hadrian was a pretty fine pick for AUN's partner, and they had claimed no night actions, so it seems like a fine target for Spyrex.

Guess we're just going to disagree here. Hadrian was pretty close to confirmed town when you consider that their role was confirmed and the way they and awesome were talking about their power yesterday.

And yes, follower means SpyreX would have seen the type of action someone performed. So if he saw anyone use a killing ability, that player was confirmed scum. It was clear that morph/Quill were going to be the prime suspects today, so following one of them would have either caught scum or confirmed them as town.

With that said, the convenience of morph redirecting Hadrian on the same night that Hadrian dies (so they can't confirm the post restriction thingy) sticks out to me as well.

[Quill]

Quill, if SpyreX followed me n4 he would have gotten the action I performed, not who I performed it on. But, he followed hadrian instead so meh.

Oh, you're right on that. I get all the watching roles jumbled up in my brain still, and I didn't go back to look at Spy's actual claim. But that makes it even weirder that he's claimed to follow Hadrian, since following one of us would have confirmed whether or not we submitted a kill.

[morph the cat]

With that said, the convenience of morph redirecting Hadrian on the same night that Hadrian dies (so they can't confirm the post restriction thingy) sticks out to me as well.

...

On the other hand ... say username is lynched today and he flips scum. Then have Morph agree to redirect us to target Quill tonight.

I sent this in.

belongs here

If we had done anything other than what we were pretty much told to do last night, I think you would also be talking about how it sticks out.

[SpyreX]

I'm really not going to pour out a massive amount of effort on this but I can run you through the thought process since it isn't all that convoluted.

Lets keep in mind the following mantras: Kdub is town. Porkens is town.

So, we're looking at a set of 3: Hadrian, Morph, Quill.

At this point the result itself of my action doesn't matter as much as my action being successful (hence me expecting an NK and, if not that, to be killed myself - note, Porkens watching me should cement the town in case we decide to do this the hard way).

The one thing I didn't expect was a kill outside of Kdub/Porkens/Myself - it doesn't make sense because, like I said yesterday, a flipped scum cements the game at that point. Hadrian being unlikely for a kill AND with no hijinks thus far was just fine.

But, I didn't put a lot of thought into it aside from not morph due to my own paranoia.

[morph the cat]

But, I didn't put a lot of thought into it aside from not morph due to my own paranoia.

What do you mean by this?

[The Betting Pool]

Vote Count 5.02:

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch!

morph the cat (L-1): Porkens, SpyreX
Porkens (L-3):
Quill (L-3):
Spyrex (L-3):
Kdub (L-3):

Not Voting: morph the cat, Quill, Kdub

V/LA:

Deadline is in (expired on 2014-04-26 19:10:47)

[Porkens]

If SpyreX is scum, how do you explain Day 2?

[morph the cat]

plz be more specific.

[Quill]

I keep looking through Spyrex's ISO and Day 2, and I can't find much to suggest that he's scum. At this point, I'm as willing to entertain the notion of Porkens being scum playing one of the most fantastic games I've seen as SpyreX being scum. The only way it works in my brain is if he, Mado and Awesome planned to get Hiplop quicklynched on Day 2 and then be "very, very sorry" about it on Day 3, claim, and try to make it through the day to get a LyLo situation on Day 4. Then, when Hiplop realized what was happening, Awesome and SpyreX threw Mado under the bus and tried to keep going without her.

But like I said, that seems like a stretch. It's got to be Morph, at this point.

On the off-chance you're town, Morph, have anything for us to consider in LyLo tomorrow? I can wait to hammer until the rest of us satisfied with moving forward.

[Kdub]

If we had done anything other than what we were pretty much told to do last night, I think you would also be talking about how it sticks out.

If you had done something else, I wouldn't be talking about how it sticks out unless it was an obviously stupid action. More importantly, if you had targeted someone else,

that player would be alive and we could confirm your ability

.

I'm really not going to pour out a massive amount of effort on this but I can run you through the thought process since it isn't all that convoluted.

Lets keep in mind the following mantras: Kdub is town. Porkens is town.

So, we're looking at a set of 3: Hadrian, Morph, Quill.

At this point the result itself of my action doesn't matter as much as my action being successful (hence me expecting an NK and, if not that, to be killed myself - note, Porkens watching me should cement the town in case we decide to do this the hard way).

The one thing I didn't expect was a kill outside of Kdub/Porkens/Myself - it doesn't make sense because, like I said yesterday, a flipped scum cements the game at that point. Hadrian being unlikely for a kill AND with no hijinks thus far was just fine.

But, I didn't put a lot of thought into it aside from not morph due to my own paranoia.

Even if you had paranoia about Hadrian, they were far likelier for a NK than morph or Quill, don't you agree? And why paranoia about Hadrian, but not Porkens? awesome flipping scum didn't officially clear either of them, but based on interactions yesterday, I don't see how you could think either of them were particularly likely to be scum.

Anyway, this might all be moot if morph is scum. I don't think any new info is going to change my mind on today's lynch.

Intent to hammer

as soon as everyone is ready.

[Cabd]

We've already accepted our lynch, we know full well this is going to 3 man lylo, so let us use the rest of this day phase. We don't care if everyone else does nothing but prod dodge until near deadline. Our words will be the words of confirmed town tomorrow, and we expect everyone to give them that weight.

[morph the cat]

We've already accepted our lynch, we know full well this is going to 3 man lylo, so let us use the rest of this day phase. We don't care if everyone else does nothing but prod dodge until near deadline. Our words will be the words of confirmed town tomorrow, and we expect everyone to give them that weight.

me

[morph the cat]

I keep looking through Spyrex's ISO and Day 2, and I can't find much to suggest that he's scum. At this point, I'm as willing to entertain the notion of Porkens being scum playing one of the most fantastic games I've seen as SpyreX being scum. The only way it works in my brain is if he, Mado and Awesome planned to get Hiplop quicklynched on Day 2 and then be "very, very sorry" about it on Day 3, claim, and try to make it through the day to get a LyLo situation on Day 4. Then, when Hiplop realized what was happening, Awesome and SpyreX threw Mado under the bus and tried to keep going without her.

But like I said, that seems like a stretch. It's got to be Morph, at this point.

On the off-chance you're town, Morph, have anything for us to consider in LyLo tomorrow? I can wait to hammer until the rest of us satisfied with moving forward.

It's not an off chance, and if you are town then I feel for you tomorrow in LYLO, because you will almost certainly be there.

We're not done. I have some trajectory analysis I want to finish and post.

[Porkens]

If your town there's no was scum kills tonight.

[Porkens]

jesus. I guess if you try you guys will figure out what I meant.

[Porkens]

Morph, on the off chance you aren't just screwing around, how does scum spyrex get mado lynched on day 2 the way that went down?

[morph the cat]

Morph, on the off chance you aren't just screwing around, how does scum spyrex get mado lynched on day 2 the way that went down?

bussing is never a thing, is it?

Hopefully I'll have a strong opinion about it from a different lens when I'm done. from the lens of awesomeusername's posts the strongest cone of silence in his iso was SpyreX.

I thought I was going to come out of the aun/madot iso analysis feeling Quill is the last scum. I didn't. :/

[Porkens]

So your theory is they went into the day planning to do that, in that way? I'm sorry, but I think you are blunting Occam's Razor with that one.

[SpyreX]

Even if you had paranoia about Hadrian, they were far likelier for a NK than morph or Quill, don't you agree? And why paranoia about Hadrian, but not Porkens? awesome flipping scum didn't officially clear either of them, but based on interactions yesterday, I don't see how you could think either of them were particularly likely to be scum.

Anyway, this might all be moot if morph is scum. I don't think any new info is going to change my mind on today's lynch. Intent to hammer as soon as everyone is ready.

Likelier maybe (if I was scum and went full bananas I would have killed Quill over Hadrian but done neither of those over a NK) but that still is a drop in the bucket compared to the other alternatives - a NK, you or me. With porkens being next in line. I mean the fact it HAPPENED means I didn't drink the juice well enough but.

Porkens had nothing to do with awesome-scum and everything to do with this game. I know town. I know Porkens. I know Porkens town. Going back and looking how some played out (like the PM misread) he's either become a scum super mastermind or is town as balls. I'm willing to eat all the hats its the latter.

Its either morph or quill and I'm like 90% on morph. I fully expect the game to end on this lynch and I'd much, much rather have wallfights after.

[Porkens]

*wrings hands* excellent, it's all coming together...

[The Betting Pool]

Vote Count 5.02:

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch!

morph the cat (L-1): Porkens, SpyreX
Porkens (L-3):
Quill (L-3):
Spyrex (L-3):
Kdub (L-3):

Not Voting: morph the cat, Quill, Kdub

V/LA:

Deadline is in (expired on 2014-04-26 19:10:47)

Just to confirm mod is still watching...no prods needed at this time.

[Kdub]

Alright, this is starting to drag on. morph, you have ~24 hours before I hammer.