Mafiascum.net

In post 1670, Shoshin wrote:If scum wanted to guarantee a lynch on a particular player, they would have nominated Auro, RC, & the player to be lynched. If scum Auro wants Volx dead, he nominates himself & RC along with Volx. The fact he didn't points strongly to town Auro. It also means scum are sloppy & clueless, or they're trying to create chaos with these picks.

Volx is biting the bait by turning on Auro. We need to avoid this, Volx. Do you really think Auro plays this game as scum? It's highly unlikely he's scum trying to remove you from the game.

The nominations point to the same people who were likely scum before the nominations: DT, Clemency, Vedith, Fusco, with an off chance it's Irrelephant.

Shoshin literally everything is within Auro's scumrange, as scum he generates WIFOM on top of WIFOM on top of WIFOM. That's why he is a genuinely hard player to read in spite of the fact that we hydra a lot together. You make somewhat of a fair point here, but your assertion that the nomination list would be {Auro, Alonzo, Volxen} if the goal was to specifically take me out of the game assumes that everyone would have Alonzo as 100% locktown based on RC's replace out (scum knew that Alonzo was replacing into RC's slot during the break phase). I have Alonzo as locktown for that reason, but that would be a big assumption for the scumteam to make to assume that Alonzo would be 100% lynch proof. If RC were still in the game I would agree with you more, but it makes sense to include at least two towny players from day one in the nomination list, and Alonzo replacing RC is going to affect the viability of him being included in the nomination list or not.

I still maintain that the intention of the {Volxen, Irrelephant, Shoshin} nomination list is to take me specifically out of the game, even though scum may not achieve this goal.

and I frankly find that suspicious.

Why you? Are you dangerous?

The insistence that you are somehow . . . leading the town? is odd. its boldfaced and its snowflakely and irrational. And it, as a fallacy, could be used by a scumman to explain other fallacies away

Kneejerk, I distrust that insistence. Have some humility.

In post 1675, volxen wrote:Shoshin literally everything is within Auro's scumrange, as scum he generates WIFOM on top of WIFOM on top of WIFOM. That's why he is a genuinely hard player to read in spite of the fact that we hydra a lot together. You make somewhat of a fair point here, but your assertion that the nomination list would be {Auro, Alonzo, Volxen} if the goal was to specifically take me out of the game assumes that everyone would have Alonzo as 100% locktown based on RC's replace out (scum knew that Alonzo was replacing into RC's slot during the break phase). I have Alonzo as locktown for that reason, but that would be a big assumption for the scumteam to make to assume that Alonzo would be 100% lynch proof. If RC were still in the game I would agree with you more, but it makes sense to include at least two towny players from day one that are still in the game in the nomination list, and Alonzo replacing RC is going to affect the viability of him being included in the nomination list or not.

1. I strongly believe that your paranoid approach to sorting strong scum players doesn't work. I also don't think that players who generate lots of WIFOM necessarily have a large scumrange. It's usually the opposite. And besides, Auro hasn't generated any WIFOM this game so you're proving my point that he's town.

2. I'm not assuming that everyone would have Alonzo as 100% locktown. I'm just saying that Auro's smart enough to. It doesn't take that much to realize RC's locktown after his replacement.

3. If RC were still in the game, he'd be suspect to many players for leading a mislynch, so suspect that he'd likely be the nomination lynch unless it was something stupid like DT/Clem/RC.

In post 1676, Fuscosco wrote: and I frankly find that suspicious.

Why you? Are you dangerous?

Irrelephant and Auro are both very familiar with my town game and meta, so yes I would arguably be a threat to either scum!Irrelephant or scum!Auro.

@Irrelephant even if you disagree with my assertion that there is at least one person on the scumteam who is very familiar with me and my meta, surely you can see why I would come to that conclusion based on the nomination list. Consider how it looks from my point of view.

If the goal was to specifically have a nomination list, based on day one play, of {2 towny town players, 1 scummy town player}, why was I chosen over any of {DoubtingThomas, Clemency, Fuscosco, Scumreading, Vedith} for the third nominee?

Think of today as 'Night 01 Night Kill Day'.

And think if your placement as 'filling a space'

Please, lets pretend you are town and you are put on that list just to keep people from killing a third, undesirable option. Then what volx? Pretend you arent special. When is scum that wants to kill sho/irre?


Like this is why I said 'don't analyse the list composition'.

In post 1683, Fuscosco wrote:And think if your placement as 'filling a space'

Let me ask you this: what do you think scum hopes to achieve with this "night phase"? Do you think they are completely indifferent to who gets "nightkilled"? Or do you think they have a specific goal in mind?

Nightkills in a traditional game almost always have a specific purpose in mind. It's the same here.

In post 1684, Fuscosco wrote:Please, lets pretend you are town and you are put on that list just to keep people from killing a third, undesirable option. Then what volx? Pretend you arent special. When is scum that wants to kill sho/irre?


Like this is why I said 'don't analyse the list composition'.

@Fuscosco, My point with asking that question was essentially this: If the nomination list was formed based on , why would I be a more desirable nightkill than all of {DoubtingThomas, Clemency, Vedith, Fuscosco, Scumreading}? Objectively I shouldn't be a more desirable nightkill than all of them based on day one play alone, because I didn't do much during day one.

In post 1638, Vedith wrote:But you didn't vote before knowing I'd sheep.
So your vote would be L3?

Voting someone indicates you think either Scum or the best lynch.

Otherwise it's just fence sitting.

This is quite ironic considering you are not voting yourself but are instead "relying" on Auro to lead you onto a wagon. In any case, why are you so anxious to get Auro to place a vote down? Right now we are effectively in night phase, and it is extremely likely that today's lynch will be a town lynch. Voting early right now isn't really all that important, considering the low probability of this night phase actually resulting in a scum lynch.

I do agree with fusco that we should be careful of trying to base a whole scum read around who is nominated when we don't even know how many scums are in the 3 nominations. It's good to assume, but assumptions are just assumptions

In post 1624, Auro wrote:

In post 1615, volxen wrote:What are your thoughts on Clemency? He attacked and tried to discredit RadiantCowbells a lot on day one as well.

We both know town!Clemency is capable of bad tunnels - remember Lovers and Losers?
What makes it likelier Clem is scum for the RC push?

Clemency does scummy things as both alignments. I'm not going to default to townreading him just because it's possible that his antagonizing and discrediting of RC could have come from town!him, because I don't think that's the more likely scenario. Especially since he immediately attacked me when I said that Alonzo is locktown.

@Shoshin, I'm not understanding why you are exercising so much caution with your Irrelephant read but you have essentially locked down Auro as an "easy" townread. I get that you have a lot of experience with Irrelephant and you are very familiar with his scumgame whereas this is basically your first game ever with Auro, but I'm telling you that Auro is also an incredibly strong scum player (he has a 100% scum win rate) like Irrelephant is, and me saying this doesn't even seem to phase you in the slightest. Why are you so confident that Auro is locktown? Because it sounds like you are as confident about Auro being locktown as you are about Alonzo being locktown, and I'm not understanding why that is.

Vote Count 2.4

Shoshin:

(2) DoubtingThomas, Alonzo

Irrelephant11:

(1) volxen

Volxen:

(0)

Not Voting:

Clemency, Irrelephant11, Vedith, Auro, Fuscosco, Shoshin, scum reading

With 10 players alive, it takes 6 votes to lynch.

Day 2 deadline is in (expired on 2019-03-19 05:19:27)

In post 1690, volxen wrote:@Shoshin, I'm not understanding why you are exercising so much caution with your Irrelephant read but you have essentially locked down Auro as an "easy" townread. I get that you have a lot of experience with Irrelephant and you are very familiar with his scumgame whereas this is basically your first game ever with Auro, but I'm telling you that Auro is also an incredibly strong scum player (he has a 100% scum win rate) like Irrelephant is, and me saying this doesn't even seem to phase you in the slightest. Why are you so confident that Auro is locktown? Because it sounds like you are as confident about Auro being locktown as you are about Alonzo being locktown, and I'm not understanding why that is.

I'm less confident reading Irrel because Irrel knows a lot more about what sorts of things I find towny.

Okay so I’m getting back into this

Here we goooo

So first @shoshin

I was thinking last night about why you would scumread my excitement to play when you know I’m partially playing because you had mentioned wanting to play a game together - Auro did the same, and I was excited to play with you both regardless of alignment. At first that insistence from you that my excitement was scummy felt scummy, because while sure I enjoy rolling scum, in what world would I be excited about rolling scum against town!you&RC. Then I realized that fypov if RC is town I sure would have to increase his paranoia about you so the two of you couldn’t get together to successfully scumread me and a lot of your actions regarding me made more sense

So I think Shoshin is town, albeit with the exception that if I were going solely off who of volxen/Shoshin i have more paranoia about I’d vote Shoshin. If I can get confident enough that she’s town though I do feel I’m a better person to vote out then her; I’ve won multiple games partially by sheeping Shoshin. Irrelephant from our last game is wincing at these words lol

I think volxen’s insistence and unwillingness to back down from chaining my & Auro’s lynches here (i think we’re both town, and though I haven’t meta’d Auro recently I’ve hydra’d with him and I do feel I am a better scum player than him and wouldn’t be townreading him as strongly as I am now if he were scum; I’ll probably metadive his more recent games to be sure tho because his apparent high win rate is interesting) is not towny. But volxen’s heavy analysis feels like town!him so idk what to do there yet

Shoshin why is volxen town?

I also want to spend a lot of this day having the three of us discuss the rest of the playerlist because if we’re all town this is a great chance to do some strong analysis

@volxen you misunderstand my point re: you getting picked. Why is it more likely that you got picked by someone familiar with your meta than it is you got picked by someone who was more focused on how the most talkative players expressed very little interest in lynching you D1?

Also just a general response to “well _____ got nominated so my read on them has flipped/changed drastically”....
Is mafia not able to do that on purpose?
Seems like a dangerous way to fluctuate reads when this will be happening every other phase and mafia want things to be wifom-y

@those townreading me strongly: why? I don’t personally feel like I’ve played that much better than some other games where I’ve been widely scumread

In post 1695, Irrelephant11 wrote:@those townreading me strongly: why? I don’t personally feel like I’ve played that much better than some other games where I’ve been widely scumread

To elaborate on this I kinda feel about myself the way I felt about people sheeping DT last gameday: I’m widely townread because it’s convenient somehow for scum, rather than because I deserve it

ALSO thanks to everyone who said something about my family emergency

In post 1694, Irrelephant11 wrote:I do feel I am a better scum player than him

I got bored of rolling scum so much, but now I want to roll scum against you sometime. It's on

In post 1694, Irrelephant11 wrote:I think volxen’s insistence and unwillingness to back down from chaining my & Auro’s lynches here (i think we’re both town, and though I haven’t meta’d Auro recently I’ve hydra’d with him and I do feel I am a better scum player than him and wouldn’t be townreading him as strongly as I am now if he were scum; I’ll probably metadive his more recent games to be sure tho because his apparent high win rate is interesting) is not towny. But volxen’s heavy analysis feels like town!him so idk what to do there yet

https://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.p ... #p10550875
Scum!Volxen's capable of faking heavy analysis.
Guess how I caught him in this game - his resistance to re-evaluate his push on me.
Give it a read, and tell me what you think.