In post 1425, lilith2013 wrote:
You said "for pressure." Okay, nausi already pressure voted me. I posted only once in the thread after that, so it should be obvious the "pressure" wasn't going to achieve anything. Like my inactivity was clearly not the result of people not paying attention to me in this thread, so why did/do you think that paying attention to me would change my lack of activity after nausi's pressure vote was already shown to not have an effect?
UNVOTE: lilith2k13
Your response to Nauci's pressure vote looked unsatisfactory, and I confused your inactivity with lurking as scum. I agree, my vote was hasty.
Why are you scumreading Tuxedo and formerfish?
I'm scumreading Tuxedo's slot because of Copy.
I don't understand how FF found Copy
bleeding town
, and find it AI that he ignored my question.
His theory about how Fred was made to claim by his scum partner as a form of defence for not being the NK seems like a stretch because it is a really bad move by scum and I can see a newbtown make that kind of a mistake. But his insistence makes me wonder if he is the scum partner of Fred, and after successfully bussing and lynching Fred on D2, shift the focus on another townie for a mislynch to win the game. How is FF defending Copy different from votato defending Fred? Votato claims to know Fred IRL so that townread seems more plausible. I also find it weird that in the early stages of the game, FF says Copy's predecessor was statistically more probable to be scum, but still eliminates him in his PoE.
Went back to this post because I managed to forget it when the game turned into The Purge
I have a few follow up question for you, Gibus:
1: Do you think that scum!Formerfish would be motivated to be
this
active and stir up this much activity? What, in your view, makes up the difference between FF's scum hunting and mine that cause you to scum read him but strongly town read me?
2: Once you check your math on the math of night kills and lynches for scum to win, do you still think it's plausible that FF would bus his teammate today? Do you believe his case on votato for why he switched there?
3: How has your read on Lilith evolved now that she has participated a lot more?
1) Formerfish is experienced and has a reputation for being good, so townreading him for stirring up activity doesn't make sense.
2) My math was off, but I still think it could be a bus attempt. Let me catch up on the votato case.
3) I feel good about her slot.
In post 1425, lilith2013 wrote:
You said "for pressure." Okay, nausi already pressure voted me. I posted only once in the thread after that, so it should be obvious the "pressure" wasn't going to achieve anything. Like my inactivity was clearly not the result of people not paying attention to me in this thread, so why did/do you think that paying attention to me would change my lack of activity after nausi's pressure vote was already shown to not have an effect?
UNVOTE: lilith2k13
Your response to Nauci's pressure vote looked unsatisfactory, and I confused your inactivity with lurking as scum. I agree, my vote was hasty.
this is garbage
lilith is kind of screaming town in the past few pages
Shrug. I didn't say it was a strong thing, you are just hitting certain high notes. I'd rather kill other people before you if it makes you feel better.
In post 1516, Formerfish wrote:So, either Freddie is lying about thier role, or they really are vt and scum!vota knows that they are town and are white knighting so that if Freddie dies Vota reaps towncred.
doesn't being connected IRL throw a big ol' leg-sized wrench in that theory though
No, because we arent supposed to talk about the game outside of the thread, at all.
I'm not talking about them talking about their roles or anything outside of the game, though.
I'm saying that if they are friends IRL, then votato has a LOT of meta knowledge about Freddie, and therefore it's not true that there's no possible way that votato knows anything about Freddie's alignment. I'm not saying that meta-knowledge is dependable necessarily, but it puts a lot more weight behind his defenses and into a totally different light. I would have like a 99% certainty of my read on my SO if they were playing in the same game as I am (which I would avoid at all costs, especially because the vice versa would probably be true) just because I would know their personality, thought styles, and reactions. I'm sure that I would feel similarly if some of my close friends played in my games as well.
How does that meta knowledge factor into your analysis? Osuka and Lilith, same question to you guys.
Posted: Tue May 26, 2020 11:08 pm
by Nauci
In post 1662, votato wrote:It has no game relevance other than giving us unique insights into reading each other.
FWIW, all prior knowledge of other players is game-relevant in some way and most of us declare it at the beginning the way I did with Brass. Meta is a very large part of scum hunting on this site, even if it usually refers to knowing each other through this forum or over Discord.
In post 593, feathers wrote:Sorry, I've got some upcoming tests so been pretty busy. I think FormerFish is town, maybe I'm too trusting like Gibus said, but his gambit post explains his behavior pretty well and doesn't feel beneficial for scum to attract so much attention early like he did. Don't really buy into the bussing critique either, seems like just Fish being equally Fish-esque with everyone. I still want to see more of his post-pivot actions to decide how organic this feels though.
Lilith I also think is town, she's been helpful with her questions and advice. A couple people suspect her based on feels but I asked for people to explain in depth and no one did. Ironcat's arguments against her about opportunity voting and bussing feels like him being his paranoid self more than anything, like I could see things that way but it also feels like he's doing the 'jumping at shadows' thing he accused Lilith of doing. Same idea with Fish, not super certain on my town evaluation, I want to see how she behaves now that Ironcat, their biggest critic, is gone.
I don't really have any strong thoughts on who's mafia atm except perhaps CopyKat, so I'm mainly trying to do the process of elimination by townreads thing several other people are doing. I wanted to reread the archives to give more specific points to back these ideas up but haven't got time yet.
Yup, feathers totally replaced because of me. I mean read this
a
bsolutely scathing
read on me.
Having the benefit of reading 50 pages past my predecessor, I'd like to point out that the terrible behavior that you attributed to Slayer's Gambit and would cease entirely halfway through Day 1 popped right back up here in Day 2.
Gibus/Tuxedo/Lilith, thoughts?
Posted: Tue May 26, 2020 11:18 pm
by Nauci
In post 1669, Tuxedo Mask wrote:Fish, just be an adult, please. Let it go. You say you're only like this when you play, so I'd really like to IRL Fish for a bit. Clearly things are stressed. Elmo has just given us all a warning. If someone breaks those rules, ignore it and let Elmo deal with it. So I don't want to hear you clapping back with "they started it" "they called me x" I don't care. End it. Just stop. You've said your piece on Vota being scum. This isn't playing the game, this is just getting in a fight. Go to sleep, and try to enjoy yourself.
Leave it to the mods to break up the fights. Do you think The Purge was alignment indicative for any party involved?
Posted: Tue May 26, 2020 11:21 pm
by Nauci
In post 1674, gibus wrote:My point is that the theory assumes a scum partner to have coached Fred into making an unnecessary move, which is an unnecessary move as scum. Who does "the people" refer to?
My question is basically, do you think that Formerfish and Osuka genuinely believe their theory that Freddie was being coached? If you scumread either of them, do you think it was an act?
Posted: Tue May 26, 2020 11:27 pm
by Nauci
In post 1674, gibus wrote:TI can't townread him yet without some information which won't be revealed anytime soon.
Huh?
In post 1674, gibus wrote:If Fred flips scum, then I'm inclined towards the possibility that FF is the partner.
Woahhhhhhh. I was with you for most of that until this bit. This would mean that the entirety of FF's pushes on Freddie, from the end of day 1 during which Freddie was -1 up through The Purge, was theater?
Posted: Tue May 26, 2020 11:36 pm
by Nauci
Like I said previously, I ruled out the possiblity that Votato and Freddie are scum together, as well as the possibility that scum Votato would defend town Freddie that hard, so, by that logic, Votato is literally town no matter what because it is so utterly implausible for everything to have happened the way it did except in the instance that town!votato genuinely believes Freddie to be town.
I'm going to re-evaluate the earlier parts of the game based on this belief as if votato flipped green, and see if that changes my reads.
Also, on Day 1 I was hard town reading Gibus for something which I thought SCREAMED newbTOWNTOWNTOWN. The way that Gibus's play has changed since makes me really question the newb part of that, and therefore makes me question the entire read. I have go actually go back and do the hard work of reading Gibus the regular way now I guess.
Similar to many other players, I had a huge (negative) reaction to ironcat's ridiculous "if I get NKed" post. For day 1 I took the LAMIST post at face value even though the posting from the slot was frequently anti-town, I thought. I changed my mind about that as well today for <reasons>.
Technically, Formerfish has continued to scumhunt and sort players by contributing content, but only insofar as the complete craziness has led me to 99% town read Votato. Osuka, you very quickly said you agree with this logic. How does that impact your read of Freddie and Formerfish?
Lilith, you had votato as your scumread for a long time now. Do you disagree with my assessment? If so, why? If not, who are your strongest scum reads now?
Posted: Wed May 27, 2020 12:06 am
by Elmo TeH AzN
After consideration after these past few pages and everything that has happened.
In post 1674, gibus wrote:My point is that the theory assumes a scum partner to have coached Fred into making an unnecessary move, which is an unnecessary move as scum. Who does "the people" refer to?
My question is basically, do you think that Formerfish and Osuka genuinely believe their theory that Freddie was being coached? If you scumread either of them, do you think it was an act?
In post 1674, gibus wrote:TI can't townread him yet without some information which won't be revealed anytime soon.
Huh?
In post 1674, gibus wrote:If Fred flips scum, then I'm inclined towards the possibility that FF is the partner.
Woahhhhhhh. I was with you for most of that until this bit. This would mean that the entirety of FF's pushes on Freddie, from the end of day 1 during which Freddie was -1 up through The Purge, was theater?
FF laid out a theory which factored in a scum coach which I find oddly specific. It makes sense if he was the one giving out instructions. That's why I'm inclined towards that possibility.
I guess that answers 1683?
Spoiler:
In post 1685, Nauci wrote:
Also, on Day 1 I was hard town reading Gibus for something which I thought SCREAMED newbTOWNTOWNTOWN. The way that Gibus's play has changed since makes me really question the newb part of that, and therefore makes me question the entire read. I have go actually go back and do the hard work of reading Gibus the regular way now I guess.
If you are being serious, then this means a lot to me, thx
Posted: Wed May 27, 2020 3:08 am
by osuka
In post 1667, Formerfish wrote:Step right up now I said step right up. What we have here right now is a little side action that I wanna play with. Everyone has 100 fishy bucks and can bet on whether or not Vota is going to be able to come up with any evidence. I am taking 3 to 1 odds against evidence ebing found, so place your bets now, but know I have no idea how betting works and Fishy bucks arent worth anyuthing and kind of have a fishy smell to it, but come on its in the name so...
ill bet all my 100 fish bucks on him not presenting anything of substance
