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Posted: Wed Jun 10, 2020 3:17 pm
by Pink Ball
I don't think gobble is scum. I don't think he's town either. I think he's a pretty cool turkey tho

Posted: Wed Jun 10, 2020 3:19 pm
by Something_Smart
VOTE: gobble

He almost certainly is scum.

Posted: Wed Jun 10, 2020 3:20 pm
by skitter30
In post 1664, skitter30 wrote:VOTE: ss

Posted: Wed Jun 10, 2020 3:22 pm
by skitter30
There's really no way he's groupscum here, he's sk at best and i think he's just town

Ss why didnt you vote gobble earlier?

Posted: Wed Jun 10, 2020 3:22 pm
by Something_Smart
Because I didn't want him to back out of the VT claim?

Posted: Wed Jun 10, 2020 3:23 pm
by Menalque
Gobble you should post what your reads are even if you don’t have the big explanation done yet

Posted: Wed Jun 10, 2020 3:25 pm
by Menalque
Datisi do you buy this?

Posted: Wed Jun 10, 2020 3:26 pm
by Menalque
I actually started to sour on my take of Lilith scum while I was away but now that Blake’s calling it harder I’m not sure

Posted: Wed Jun 10, 2020 3:27 pm
by skitter30
In post 1679, Something_Smart wrote:Because I didn't want him to back out of the VT claim?
I meant during the first wagon or the one that prompted him to claim sk or voting him inmediately thereafter

Like why no and not at any point before the vt claim

Posted: Wed Jun 10, 2020 3:28 pm
by skitter30
*now

Posted: Wed Jun 10, 2020 3:29 pm
by Something_Smart
In post 1683, skitter30 wrote:I meant during the first wagon or the one that prompted him to claim sk or voting him inmediately thereafter

Like why no and not at any point before the vt claim
Because I thought he was an SK before, and now I think he's groupscum.

Posted: Wed Jun 10, 2020 3:31 pm
by Pink Ball
skitter is so scummy it hurts my tummy

Posted: Wed Jun 10, 2020 3:32 pm
by skitter30
Gobble doesnt make sense as groupscum tho ... he got run up twice and the game magically freezes when he claims sk ?
And you're pushing him now ?

Pb you're going to have to elaborate

Posted: Wed Jun 10, 2020 3:34 pm
by Menalque
VOTE: gobbles

Posted: Wed Jun 10, 2020 3:35 pm
by Something_Smart
In post 1687, skitter30 wrote:Gobble doesnt make sense as groupscum tho ... he got run up twice and the game magically freezes when he claims sk ?
So scum can't be run up?

Posted: Wed Jun 10, 2020 3:37 pm
by Menalque
I don’t believe the turkey is town. Idk if he’s the SK who’s trying to wrangle his way back in or if he’s groupscum who was caught and decided to gambit it, but either way I don’t think he’s town and I’m not really interested in dealing with the WIFOM around it if he lives. There are other people who I’d be interested in lynching and who I’ve toyed with the idea of lynching but with the latest shenanigans taking place there’s really not much that’s going to sway me on lynching the bird today.

I’m happy to wait for him to give reads and let us know where his head’s at in case this is a town gambit gone horribly, horribly wrong, but yeah, I just don’t wanna deal with it.

Posted: Wed Jun 10, 2020 3:38 pm
by skitter30
It's the wrong time to be voting him if you actually think he's scum.
The gamestate doesnt support groupscum!gobble, and what's he even trying to do here as scum ... claiming sk seems like a pretty dumb move as groupscum

Posted: Wed Jun 10, 2020 3:41 pm
by Menalque
Don’t get me wrong, I think it’s much more likely that he’s SK who’s now recanting because that’s his wincon. I’m just not ruling out the possibility that he’s groupscum. Could be that the game stalled because scum didn’t really know how to defend him and because one or more scum were bussing on the original wagon. But yeah, I think it’s much more likely he’s the SK trying to walk it back

Posted: Wed Jun 10, 2020 3:42 pm
by Menalque
Have I missed my chance to talk with the lovely Blake

Posted: Wed Jun 10, 2020 3:42 pm
by Menalque
Who I believe has unanswered questions from me to attend to

Posted: Wed Jun 10, 2020 3:44 pm
by skitter30
I think ss voting gobble now, after defending him when he originally claimed sk, is scummy

Posted: Wed Jun 10, 2020 3:45 pm
by Menalque
In post 867, Menalque wrote:@blake would you vote turkey?
In post 924, Menalque wrote:@blake, could you give explanations for the 4 reads you have earlier?
The first one is still relevant now I think, but the second is the one I’m more interested in

Posted: Wed Jun 10, 2020 3:46 pm
by Menalque
In post 1695, skitter30 wrote:I think ss voting gobble now, after defending him when he originally claimed sk, is scummy
I don’t remember SS defending him tbf, what did he say?

Posted: Wed Jun 10, 2020 3:47 pm
by Menalque
Also @blake what caused your María read to drop in strength?

Posted: Wed Jun 10, 2020 3:51 pm
by skitter30
Spoiler:
In post 1314, Something_Smart wrote:
In post 1266, Menalque wrote:+1, we still lynch gobbles today

I respect him trying to make a deal, but fundamentally he doesn’t have a town wincon and right now he’s in the weakest negotiating position.
He's in the weakest negotiating position... which means he's not a threat, right?

Since we can unilaterally make him lose, he has to do what we say; even though he says he won't be leashed, if a majority agrees to leash him, he'll have to follow or be lynched. That said, straight-up leashing is a bad idea because bus driver, but it seems perfectly fine to tell him to kill someone scummy and if he doesn't (or if you want to be harsh, if he doesn't hit scum) then we lynch him.
In post 1333, Something_Smart wrote:
In post 1322, Menalque wrote:No, then we’re weaker because we’re getting further away from outnumbering the scum and he gets to coast another day because people want to try and flip their scumreads.
This sounds like empty rhetoric to me.

You're talking about him surviving another day as if it's automatically a bad thing. Is it? If we compare lynching him tomorrow to lynching him today, the only difference is that an extra player dies overnight. If that player is > rand scum, then it's good; otherwise, it's bad.

Then, if he killed scum, we can leave him alive one more day to put us back on odds without worrying about losing majority. If he killed town, we might have to lynch him-- and this gives him a powerful incentive to play along and try to hit his strongest scumread.

If you assume that his reads are better than random, there is at the very least a reasonable argument for leaving him alive.
In post 1339, Something_Smart wrote:
In post 1338, skitter30 wrote:if he thinks you'll shoot town he gets another person closer to lylo without having to do anything
And anyone who wants to lynch him might be scum who thinks he'll shoot scum or take out a future mislynch. What's your point?
In post 1370, Something_Smart wrote:
In post 1354, Menalque wrote:There is NO INCENTIVE for the turkey to kill scum because that LITERALLY is playing against his wincon

Like in the world where we mislynch every day and the turkey saves us by shooting 3 scum in a row — what does he think happens, we go “yeah, thanks turkey, we just won’t lynch you so that you can win bc you were so helpful to town” lmao
Saying "there is no incentive to kill three scum" is not the same as saying "there is no incentive to kill one scum."

He has a very real incentive to kill one scum-- we lynch him if he doesn't. Whatever minuscule chance he has to win, it comes from doing whatever we tell him so he doesn't get autolynched.


His progression on gobble doesnt make sense and i dont get why he's voting him now