Posted: Mon Nov 30, 2020 8:42 am
which like, looks bad in comparison to what i said abt this game but OTL that’s just how it is for me rn
i do not think this makes a lot of sense, but i do think dunnstral is +townIn post 1649, Infinity 324 wrote:The probability of a given set of 4 people currently alive having at least 1 scum (assuming 3 scum total) is about 75%. If dunn is scum, scum are just as likely to vote dunn or TGP since it doesn’t matter to them who gets limmed. If dunn is scum, scum would almost never vote dunn. Since 4 people excluding myself voted dunn, that group is likely to have at least 1 scum, so dunn is likely town.
do not think this makes a lot of sense eitherIn post 1658, Infinity 324 wrote:I think we’re talking past each other so let’s work through this.
We have 4 possibilities:
There was at least 1 scum on dunn and dunn is scum: we both agree this is unlikely
There was at least 1 scum on dunn and dunn is town: I think this is the most likely scenario
There was no scum on dunn and dunn is scum: you think this is the most likely scenario, but I’m not convinced; it requires 4 players other than me to all be town, which is unlikely just by probability
There was no scum on dunn and dunn is town: also a possibility but unlikely by probability
i do not really understand why you continue to say things like this when you are aware that it is likely the game will change in large way. like it feels like you're trying to give the impression you think we're playing an all-vanilla double-day game even though you know that we are not.In post 1668, Flea The Magician wrote:I really don't get why TGP thought there was ways to get mechanical guilties or thinks there's some weird PR for town because of the "All town are vt!"
any opinions about any of this? i feel like you know where i was, soIn post 1673, Flea The Magician wrote:Hopkirk be awol, jessie has gone, Ydrasse nowhere to be seen, gypyx is on their own personal island and skitter be skittish....
was there a reason you asked me about the setups to the first two silent star games earlier then? like i explained that in the first the big twist was that the werewolves were actually the town of lunacy and that in menagerie after the post restricted phases and the first elimination we cut to a two treestump three lover-pairs situation even though in that game all we knew of at the beginning was post-restricted vanilla,In post 1685, Flea The Magician wrote:All town are vanilla, I know nothing about silent star except something weird happens.
Are mid game role changes a thing?
And yes, for now I'm on vanilla double day because frankly I've no other information to go off. If TGP flipped red then we know something funky was definitely going to happen. They flipped green.
Endless spec talk isn't going to get us anywhere at this point.
pedit: I know we were in a game together, Ydrasse has been disengaged, gypyx has been sporadic, skitter posts in chunks and I miss hoppy </3
like, you know this, and you asked me about the setups earlier, but still you're saying 'can't possibly think of why thegoldenparadox might think there is the possibility of mechanical guilties!' it just seems like it doesn't really add up to meIn post 1685, Flea The Magician wrote:I know nothing about silent star except something weird happens.
even after they flippedIn post 1687, team rocket queen wrote:but still you're saying 'can't possibly think of why thegoldenparadox might think there is the possibility of mechanical guilties!'
in the first the town were not vanilla, we were werewolves and thought we were on two-person scumteams. in the second we were vanilla until we weren't.In post 1689, Flea The Magician wrote:Curiosity. At no point did you mention all town were vanilla town in either game that I recall. If you did I missed it
pedit: Launching cops into a game like this seems weird to me. Looking at the theme.
ppedit: preflip, it was potential scum info. Post flip, they were town, it couldn't be.
Correct me if i'm wrong, 1 was Lunacy and 2 was menagerie?In post 1159, team rocket queen wrote:silent star 1: 10 werewolves, 3 mafia. 6 2-person neighbourhoods, 1 solo, so werewolves thought they were mafia day one.
silent star 2: 8 town pms, 1 mafia, then mafia recruited someone, animal sounds post restriction, two players were nominated, then no more animal sounds and we got to choose between the nominations to be eliminated. then two town were treestumped and lover pairs were made out of the remaining players
Was there a message saying all town had recieved a vanilla pm?In post 1690, team rocket queen wrote:in the first the town were not vanilla, we were werewolves and thought we were on two-person scumteams. in the second we were vanilla until we weren't.In post 1689, Flea The Magician wrote:Curiosity. At no point did you mention all town were vanilla town in either game that I recall. If you did I missed it
pedit: Launching cops into a game like this seems weird to me. Looking at the theme.
ppedit: preflip, it was potential scum info. Post flip, they were town, it couldn't be.
At the moment, yes.In post 1690, team rocket queen wrote:does a public cop also seem out of the realm of possibility to you?
I strongly believe it isn't possible. Even with knowledge of the previous games that you've shared with me, unless both games had that same vanilla town announcement then its a safe option to assume there will be no mechanical guilty.In post 1690, team rocket queen wrote:it just feels kinda agenda based when you are saying 'dunno why they thought this was a possibility' after they flip even though you also have reason to suspect it might be possible
like either to enforce the 'oh i was so sure of that too' or to enforce the 'i think we are playing vanilla doubleday' perception
yesIn post 1691, Flea The Magician wrote:Correct me if i'm wrong, 1 was Lunacy and 2 was menagerie?
trackers can also give mechanical guilties. and it seems pretty easy to flavour a public cop check to any setting really. like this happens and these players alignments are revealed or we vote for it like happened in one of the mystery boxes.In post 1691, Flea The Magician wrote:Royalty, nothing yet. Looking at flavour, we're more olde times than modern times.
Doc: Probably a plague style doc, CPR maybe?
Trackers and Watchers are a possibility
Guards are likely bodyguards or docs mechanically
Cops wouldn't really fit well in the flavour we have so far. i'll go back over it though and have a look.
i in fact did not know this. our good friend 'there might be other bastard elements'In post 1692, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:1 thing you might not know about silent star 2 is that hectic lied to me in my mafia role PM and told me I had a factional nightkill when it was not true.
yupIn post 1694, Flea The Magician wrote:Pooky were you the D1?
from silent star: menagerie:In post 1693, Flea The Magician wrote:Was there a message saying all town had recieved a vanilla pm?
Not really, they allow a strong suspicion. several roles can mess with that.In post 1695, team rocket queen wrote:yesIn post 1691, Flea The Magician wrote:Correct me if i'm wrong, 1 was Lunacy and 2 was menagerie?trackers can also give mechanical guilties. and it seems pretty easy to flavour a public cop check to any setting really. like this happens and these players alignments are revealed or we vote for it like happened in one of the mystery boxes.In post 1691, Flea The Magician wrote:Royalty, nothing yet. Looking at flavour, we're more olde times than modern times.
Doc: Probably a plague style doc, CPR maybe?
Trackers and Watchers are a possibility
Guards are likely bodyguards or docs mechanically
Cops wouldn't really fit well in the flavour we have so far. i'll go back over it though and have a look.
I've quickly gone and looked at the setup posts for the previous silent star games, there was no such post stating all town aligned players had received a VT pm. The closest was in SS2 where it was all town aligned players have had a pm.In post 1695, team rocket queen wrote:i in fact did not know this. our good friend 'there might be other bastard elements'In post 1692, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:1 thing you might not know about silent star 2 is that hectic lied to me in my mafia role PM and told me I had a factional nightkill when it was not true.