Sorry. I haven't been pulling my weight. Skimmed the last few pages. All I can say is bugspray probably isn't scum here. I think we're looking at a Luca-led team. I just haven't had an opportunity to put it all together yet.
Posted: Fri Jan 15, 2021 5:36 am
by bugspray
sorry been brain sad a few days gonna play chess and maybe read this topic later VOTE: luca
will reread to check if galron is scum because apparently the three original members of the hood are all tpr and also there was grendel so it seems like scum must have some serious shit or someone is lying
Posted: Fri Jan 15, 2021 5:40 am
by Galron
I mean, bugs claimed backup neighbor. A neighbor was killed, and bugs became a neighbor. Gamma claimed backup neighbor (in the hood) also. For bugs to be traitor, bugs would've had to have not known about Gamma. It's possible either bugs or gamma (or both -- really doubt) are scum. Of the two, looking at the mechanics, it would make more sense for Gamma to be the mafia member just because if there was a town backup neighbor and a scum backup neighbor, and neither knows that the other role exists, for bugs to claim backup neighbor under pressure to do so seems too pure. And then there was no cc from Gamma. I've been town reading Gamma, so I don't know that that's AI, but if we're comparing the two, I think it's more likely Gamma's scum than Bugs.
Posted: Fri Jan 15, 2021 5:44 am
by Lunar Martian
Hmm I Think I was mixing up Galron and Grendel. Galron is not obvtown. I'll re-read Galron later. I think it's highly unlikely that the entire hood was Town PRs with back-up townies to fill in. Much more Likely, A Town PR hood got infiltrated or wasn't all Town to begin with.
Posted: Fri Jan 15, 2021 6:22 am
by ejjinami
In post 1679, Lunar Martian wrote:Hmm I Think I was mixing up Galron and Grendel. Galron is not obvtown. I'll re-read Galron later. I think it's highly unlikely that the entire hood was Town PRs with back-up townies to fill in. Much more Likely, A Town PR hood got infiltrated or wasn't all Town to begin with.
just a quick pop-in to say that this is a town-slip
Scum!lunar would have known that they were killing the “cop” so they wouldn’t have lock-towned galron for so long.
This mistake wouldn’t have occurred if lunar was scum.
I rest my case
please, no more
Posted: Fri Jan 15, 2021 6:25 am
by ejjinami
I’m so tired
Posted: Fri Jan 15, 2021 7:18 am
by Luca Blight
It’s increasingly obvious that it’s Bugs/Galron.
Posted: Fri Jan 15, 2021 7:34 am
by Lunar Martian
In post 769, Galron wrote:Can we consolidate on Lunar and Bugspray? I'm less convinced that Bugs is scum than Lunar, but there seems to be a lack of focus and we need to elim someone. My take on Bugs is pure meta. I haven't seen anything different from them this game than others I've been in with them. They're almost always on the rack early game -- it's a style thing with Bugs I think. Lunar, on the other hand, just feels scummy to me, a dose of AtE along with caught in the headlights.
Being willing to go bugspray early is interesting. At the same time though, Galron is pushing the wagon towards me and away from bugs.
Suddenly Galron isn't willing to go bugs after all. No explanation is given, but bugs becomes a Townread and Galron never really shows any evidence of sorting bugs or anyone else.
In post 953, Galron wrote:It's about too late to claim and cfd. I'd say you're good to hammer npom. 6 hours left.
Encouraging a hammer.
In post 1014, Galron wrote:I'm still agnostic on Bugs tbh, probably town lean. Their willingness to share info from the hood but only after getting the okay doesn't seem like something mafia would do.
This is a strange reason to Townread someone in my view, but I suppose I'm not sure how hoods normally work.
In post 1161, Galron wrote:I'm suspicious of the people who want to get rid of Bugs, who is a conduit to the hood, but not Gamma. It wasn't until recently that Gamma even shared anything from the hood, if I recall correctly.
Again, this is a strange reason to Townread someone, especially since Galron could easily share info from the hood himself if he wanted.
Posted: Fri Jan 15, 2021 7:36 am
by Frogsterking
@Ejji I'm open to engaging with your argument and even changing my mind, provided the engagement is organized on a point-by-point basis and you're directly refuting the solve I laid out in 1589.
1010, 1103, and 1108 are examples of what I'm looking for here and that I can be dissuaded from a view point. Luca changed my mind about Bugs on D2, I'm not cognitively inflexible, I've just seen that I'm more likely to lose the game by getting discouraged and underestimating my solve potential than by overestimating it, so you'll need to make it very clear to me why your POV is more likely to be correct before I adopt it.
An example of what I'm
not
looking for is what you wrote in 1600, which fails to acknowledge the points I already raised in 1589; Momrangel put a significant amount of effort D1 into creating a counter wagon to both Lunar and Bugs, Momrangel D2 chose to push Gamma over Lunar even though my recent theory had implicated both, Momrangel D2 passed an easy opportunity to case and hammer Bugs.
The type of back and forth you've engaged in so far has no hope of convergence, because there's nothing in 1600 that gives me any indication you did in fact read 1589. It isn't that I'm not listening to you because I'm unwilling to change my mind or because I believe you have nothing to contribute, I'm not listening to you because you've given me a low level of confidence that you're listening to me, therefore you have a higher chance of being a VI than presenting me with the correct solve. This perception can change instantly by altering your approach, and with that your chances of persuading me increase dramatically.
I think another one of those OCEAN breakdowns like the one that was done for me, Grendel, and Amelie should probably be done for me and ejjinami
I am starting to get the sense our disagreement on some of our reads is on a fundamental level and I’d like to see where our differences lie
We’ve been stuck on the same image for three game days
Posted: Fri Jan 15, 2021 10:19 am
by bugspray
This is literally a micro with extra steps??
Posted: Fri Jan 15, 2021 10:19 am
by Gamma Emerald
Explain?
Posted: Fri Jan 15, 2021 10:20 am
by Frogsterking
Yeah can we get another VCA with a new frame? This flavor needs some spice.
Posted: Fri Jan 15, 2021 10:22 am
by Frogsterking
@Joq
Looks like you're going to get the responsibility of hammering! Where do you stand between Bugs and Luca?
In post 1687, Gamma Emerald wrote:I think another one of those OCEAN breakdowns like the one that was done for me, Grendel, and Amelie should probably be done for me and ejjinami
I am starting to get the sense our disagreement on some of our reads is on a fundamental level and I’d like to see where our differences lie
I'm planning on doing this tomorrow.
Posted: Fri Jan 15, 2021 10:42 am
by Gamma Emerald
UNVOTE:
I wanna see that analysis
Posted: Fri Jan 15, 2021 11:49 am
by OutWorldER
Luca is scum-led counterwagon. At least one of eiji/Galron is town playing for the scum team. Bugspray's ISO has literally zero scumhunting in it and I'm pretty sure they TMI'd in 1410
the constant delay of this elim by people who should by all rights be town is driving me insane since there is no fucking reason to. We can figure out Bugs partners better when we have a confirmed flip and night actions submitted.