Micro 1059: Micro & Normal Stuff | GAME OVER

[scamper]

lmk if you have any more questions/want to know my thoughts

[Coral]

i wish i could summarize my reasons for thinking it's you, but i don't exactly *have* them - it's just that i have better reasons to think scamper is town than i do thinking you are

i think the best explicit reason why you're more likely scum, or like a moment that explicitly shows scum motivation, is when you decided you wanted me to vote first

i was not in the mood to argue that last night because i was barely keeping my eyes open, but

in my mind, it would make sense that a townie would want whoever they're scum to vote first. because if scum votes first, you know the game is not going to end yet. and like, if you're town who thinks i'm town and who sees i'm leaning you, then it seems very counterintuitive to me for you to want *me* to vote first. because if i'm town and i vote town!you, that's that, gg. whereas even if scamper!scum votes you first, you still have a chance of convincing me

and even if you do want me to vote first anyway, then i'd expect town!you to actually be presenting more reasons why i should reconsider voting you and instead vote scamper and etc etc. where your 393 in the hood is just *weird* from town-you because it's showing a resigning "well idk how to actually convince you if you're town" attitude which (1) is odd compared to your attitude earlier, (2) is odd because

you

were the fake-hammer vote on me

and also shortly after deciding you want me to hammer first, you start going into potential mechanical problems with my play, which is just... very peculiar timing

like, i absolutely hate that the perhaps best reasons i can point out as scum motivation of someone all happened within like 24 hours before the game's end, because i feel like i should have better reasons and longer-lasting reasons, but

idk i'm tired i didn't sleep much last night

I find it

relieving

when scum votes first in f3, especially when they vote for me, because it makes things simpler. I do not think that it necessarily increases town's chances of winning the game. Scum getting to choose who they 1v1 with is incredibly valuable. My thought process going in to that vote was that I didn't want to give scamper that choice at all, since I thought he was probably scum, but even if he wasn't, he votes me and probably loses.

So once scamper picked you, my options were:
1) choose you
2) choose scamper, in which case you probably choose me, and then we're stuck and maybe scamper ends up just deciding to vote anyway
3) choose myself. i did heavily consider after scamper chose datisi, just being like "okay, fuck it" and real-voting for scamper, because it felt like that was my last chance for agency in this situation. But I wasn't confident enough on scamper being scum anymore for me to feel like that was the best percentage play

It's hard for me to know how to argue my case for being town when I didn't know your case for me being scum. I always will want to try, but I do kind of think that if you still don't see me as town, then there's not much more I can do.

scamper, as either alignment, is good at arguing and at getting me to doubt myself. I've been wavering a bit, sometimes more than others, and the question asked in the hood prompted me to think more about the assumptions that I was making earlier and realize that they were incorrect.

I don't see why there's strategic benefit to me as scum starting to suspect you here, so I don't really get your point? On the surface it looks like I'm realigning myself in some way to get ready for a new direction. That will draw your attention and probably make you suspicious of me. But there's no reason for me to do that as scum, because if you vote for me, I can just find those reasons then. It doesn't benefit me at all to be preparing to angle towards you beforehand unless it's something that I think will make me look more town (which I don't think it really does).

[Coral]

A few reasons why I think you should find me as town:
1) I think my day 1 play matches far more to someone who has a PR, doesn't feel that strongly about any scumreads, and also believes that they will be either nightkilled or cleared by their role at some point, than it matches to scum. On day 1 I thought I was probably the main town power and that I would get setup-cleared once I needed to claim, and my main goal was creating a town hood that could bloc up and win the game. You can see that in the hood, where I'm often focused on you two, trying to decide if I'm confident enough to call either of you town, since if I was able to do so at any point then the game is pretty much won, even on day 2. As scum, I wouldn't feel that, since I would know that there is significant other town power that would throw my claim into question. I would need to be more townread on dayplay in order to survive.

2) As scum, I always have a plan. I am always looking for how to put my team in the best position to win the game. You can see this by looking at my scum PT from Eurybia's Curse. When my team was fairly inactive, I tried to take control of the thread, constantly fluffing up my posts to get more townread, and pursuing angles that would set us up to be able to win. I don't really think my play here matches that at all. I would have just let Galron die and also gotten nothing out of it. Yes, I was busy at times, but the times that I did post didn't really do anything to help me if I were scum. I was going to say that I probably try to bring somebody else to ELO here, but I guess the same argument could apply to either of you. Still, I feel like as the one with the hood, I had the most control over who the previous two eliminations were. I think that as scum I try to amplify Ausuka's paranoia of scamper, not soothe it, and then use it to get scamper out of the way yesterday instead of Meg.

3) I think that my approach to ELO here has been towny? All of us can argue for days as either alignment, so that's not really relevant. But I think that I have shown that I am genuinely

trying

to understand the opposing side's view, not trying to push mine. Maybe it doesn't come across that way, but that's how I feel at least. I think that as scum here I would be a lot more self-centered and focused on making sure nobody has any ammunition against me. Pushing out and overextending myself doesn't help me much, because it can easily backfire.

[Coral]

I would have just let Galron die and also gotten nothing out of it.

This is worded poorly, let me attempt to rephrase:
In order to argue that I am scum here, you are arguing that I just let Galron die and also got nothing out of it.

[Datisi]

hi sorry, are you both going to be on 3 hours before deadline onwards? bc bc work is busier than i thought and i do not have the ability to read and digest wallposts right now

[scamper]

that might be cutting it a little tight because i'll be driving but i should be here before the deadline

[Coral]

I will, yes.

[scamper]

or i can just say "im town im town im town im town im town im town im town im town im town im town im town im town im town im town" and hope u believe me

[Coral]

im town im town im town im town im town im town im town im town im town im town im town im town im town im town im town

[Irrelephant11]

Official Vote Count 4.03

this cicada lived underground for years, and has watched the show Friends.

elimination

With 3 votes in play, it takes 2 to unsubscribe.

Everybody

(0): Nobody

Not Voting

(3): Coral, Datisi, scamper

Deadline:

(expired on 2022-08-18 20:10:15).

Mod notes:

<3

[scamper]

going to be leaving soon and will be unavailable for an hour or so

if you have questions for me drop them here and i'll answer asap when i'm back online

[Datisi]

ok i am here!! reading now

[Coral]

he votes me and probably loses.

i feel like this should be obvious but just in case, the probably landed in the wrong spot here. it should be prior to votes

I was still half asleep writing that post

[Datisi]

Scum getting to choose who they 1v1 with is incredibly valuable.

sure, but it also guarantees the game goes down to a 1v1.

scamper, as either alignment, is good at arguing and at getting me to doubt myself. I've been wavering a bit, sometimes more than others, and the question asked in the hood prompted me to think more about the assumptions that I was making earlier and realize that they were incorrect.

how confident are you currently on him being scum vs on me being scum?

I don't see why there's strategic benefit to me as scum starting to suspect you here, so I don't really get your point? On the surface it looks like I'm realigning myself in some way to get ready for a new direction. That will draw your attention and probably make you suspicious of me. But there's no reason for me to do that as scum, because if you vote for me, I can just find those reasons then. It doesn't benefit me at all to be preparing to angle towards you beforehand unless it's something that I think will make me look more town (which I don't think it really does).

i don't think it's *strategic*, exactly. if you're scum here, you kind of have a choice of who you want to 1v1 - scamper seems to be 50/50, and i'm leaning you. so it seems logical that you'd rather have scamper be the deciding vote than me be the deciding vote.

and if you can sense that i'm going to be voting you, and that you'll be 1v1ing me, i think it's kind of instinctual to want to get a head start on that? because like, either you (1) have to show that you think i might be scum, or (2) you have to start trying really, REALLY hard to convince me you're actually town

because like, if you do neither of those things, THEN it looks like you're saying "yeah, i think datisi is town, but i also want datisi to vote first, yes i'm aware he's probably voting me, lols". and that is very obviously not something town ever does? (unless they give zero shits about the game, which obviously doesn't apply to you)

[Coral]

sure, but it also guarantees the game goes down to a 1v1.

...so? If it's an advantageous 1v1 for scum, then that's not really a good thing

[Coral]

how confident are you currently on him being scum vs on me being scum?

I think I've lost any confidence that I had going in to the day. If I were forced to vote at this very instant it would be for scamper but if I do have to be the one to make that decision then I would want to hear more from both of you before I choose. Right now I just care about the case where you're town, in which I want to show you that I'm town. If you're scum, then either I'll know when you vote me, or I'll deal with that decision once it's in front of me.

[Coral]

i don't think it's *strategic*, exactly. if you're scum here, you kind of have a choice of who you want to 1v1 - scamper seems to be 50/50, and i'm leaning you. so it seems logical that you'd rather have scamper be the deciding vote than me be the deciding vote.

and if you can sense that i'm going to be voting you, and that you'll be 1v1ing me, i think it's kind of instinctual to want to get a head start on that? because like, either you (1) have to show that you think i might be scum, or (2) you have to start trying really, REALLY hard to convince me you're actually town

because like, if you do neither of those things, THEN it looks like you're saying "yeah, i think datisi is town, but i also want datisi to vote first, yes i'm aware he's probably voting me, lols". and that is very obviously not something town ever does? (unless they give zero shits about the game, which obviously doesn't apply to you)

I still don't see why I would want to get a head start on that. There's no need for a clean progression there. And if I didn't ever think that you might be scum, I would have voted scamper a while ago, so clearly that possibility has still been on my mind all day.

Maybe I misunderstood how likely you were to vote me? At the time I decided I wanted you to vote first, I thought you were closer to undecided but the way you're talking now makes it sound like you are strongly leaning towards me.

[Coral]

I think that my stated reasoning when I talk about why I chose you makes it pretty clear that I think there is a strong possibility of you being scum.

[Coral]

I've also thought that you as scum would be coming into this ELO with the expectation that one of me or scamper would vote first, but that if you needed to, you would vote me. That was part of why I found 1553 kind of concerning. It could be my bias, but it felt like there was a lot of "okay this reason to townread scamper isn't as good as I thought" and then at the end you said you were leaning towards me and it just... kind of felt like you had already decided that's what you wanted to do and weren't looking at the game on a deeper level.

Especially because in the hood it felt like you were pretty on board with the "meg or scamper is scum" plan, and said that I was very likely to just be town. It feels like the progression to get from there to where you entered today is missing.

So anyway. Point is that if you're town, that's part of why I believed that you weren't that convinced on voting me, because it seemed like your reasons weren't very good and I'm not sure why they would be convincing for you.

[Coral]

The other thing about 1553 though is that I partly felt that you would be able to come up with better reasons if you really were scum who wanted to pivot towards me

So I guess I hoped that you were just town who didn't have very convincing reasons for who to choose yet.

[Datisi]

I think that my stated reasoning when I talk about why I chose you makes it pretty clear that I think there is a strong possibility of you being scum.

i think it looked more like you're not as sure on scamper!scum as you were before, but this is semantics

i don't think it's *strategic*, exactly. if you're scum here, you kind of have a choice of who you want to 1v1 - scamper seems to be 50/50, and i'm leaning you. so it seems logical that you'd rather have scamper be the deciding vote than me be the deciding vote.

and if you can sense that i'm going to be voting you, and that you'll be 1v1ing me, i think it's kind of instinctual to want to get a head start on that? because like, either you (1) have to show that you think i might be scum, or (2) you have to start trying really, REALLY hard to convince me you're actually town

because like, if you do neither of those things, THEN it looks like you're saying "yeah, i think datisi is town, but i also want datisi to vote first, yes i'm aware he's probably voting me, lols". and that is very obviously not something town ever does? (unless they give zero shits about the game, which obviously doesn't apply to you)

I still don't see why I would want to get a head start on that. There's no need for a clean progression there. And if I didn't ever think that you might be scum, I would have voted scamper a while ago, so clearly that possibility has still been on my mind all day.

Maybe I misunderstood how likely you were to vote me? At the time I decided I wanted you to vote first, I thought you were closer to undecided but the way you're talking now makes it sound like you are strongly leaning towards me.

because it's easier to do than make huge cases attempting to convince me you're town, and because reminding scamper for reasons why they were suspicious of us / showing that you agree with them can potentially pocket them? i also think that most scum try to have some level of consistency - you're going to claim you wouldn't have done it because it wasn't necessary, and i can't prove otherwise obviously, but it's something that i just *feel* is likely to be coming from scum!mindset who's about to enter a 1v1

[Datisi]

It could be my bias, but it felt like there was a lot of "okay this reason to townread scamper isn't as good as I thought" and then at the end you said you were leaning towards me and it just... kind of felt like you had already decided that's what you wanted to do and weren't looking at the game on a deeper level.

i was going through d1 and writing out what came to me... there's not many comments on you because you were not as present on d1, which is something for itself

like, i found that my reasons for townreading scamper had possible holes in them, but also that they were overall still there, and that the game made more sense to me with you being scum than with them being scum

do you think that scum!me, who decided i was gonna end on a scumread on you, spends the entirety of the post saying how my reasons for townreading scamper weren't as good as before?

Especially because in the hood it felt like you were pretty on board with the "meg or scamper is scum" plan, and said that I was very likely to just be town. It feels like the progression to get from there to where you entered today is missing.

the reason why i was on board with that plan is because i thought it was just meg, and i felt like i had good reasons to townread both you and scamper >.>

[Datisi]

i think scum!me would be capable of coming up with better reasons to call you scum if i wanted to

if anything, scamper has been calling you scum basically all game, that's a place for inspiration

ftr, i don't think my reasons for thinking you're scum are *great*, but unfortunately the deadline is in two hours and i'm half braindead currently which means that i don't have the luxury of acquiring better material

[Coral]

i think scum!me would be capable of coming up with better reasons to call you scum if i wanted to

Yes, that was the next step in my thought process. So... I don't know where I land on that.

[Coral]

Do you have any thoughts on my 1677?