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Posted: Wed May 13, 2020 12:23 pm
by LuckyLuciano
The way I understand it, Wake and I are mech town. That makes the lynch pool {MT, Clidd, Profii, Bob, Adorable}. MT I think is town based on meta. Nobody seems to think you are scum. If I'm right on MT, and everyone else is right on you, then mafia is in {Profii, Bob, Adorable} and with 1 mislynch remaining we cannot lose.
Posted: Wed May 13, 2020 12:58 pm
by clidd
In post 1700, LuckyLuciano wrote:The way I understand it, Wake and I are mech town. That makes the lynch pool {MT, Clidd, Profii, Bob, Adorable}. MT I think is town based on meta. Nobody seems to think you are scum. If I'm right on MT, and everyone else is right on you, then mafia is in {Profii, Bob, Adorable} and with 1 mislynch remaining we cannot lose.
It seems like a utopian solution, but I am following your reasoning. What do you think about that, Wake ?
Posted: Wed May 13, 2020 5:17 pm
by Wake1
Eh, bullshit.
None of us, including me, are mechanically cleared.
Very rarely does mechanics 100% clear anyone.
Posted: Wed May 13, 2020 5:29 pm
by LuckyLuciano
So why does the mafia have a 1x jailkeeper?
Posted: Wed May 13, 2020 6:29 pm
by Morning Tweet
This mechanical stuff is becoming a drag to read through
let's say Lucky-dave is scum. Who is the most likely partner? I'd like to pose this question to those advocating for Lucky's lynch specifically.
And for Lucky, who would you pick to lynch first out of {Bob, Profii, Adorable}?
Posted: Wed May 13, 2020 6:54 pm
by LuckyLuciano
Adorable.
Posted: Wed May 13, 2020 11:53 pm
by Adorable
I'm being setup for a mislynch. That Hectic kill makes no sense since that would just put 3 vt claims setup as lynch meaning 2 scums basically outed themselves by killing a vt claim. If I was scum I would have killed a pr and not kill a vt claim.
Posted: Thu May 14, 2020 7:17 am
by bob3141
In post 1688, Adorable wrote: In post 1680, Morning Tweet wrote:it's probable that either A.) bob is scum with lucky or B.) adorable is scum with profii.
what do you think of the possibility both scum is in the VTs, clidd? If so, i think that makes bob town
So it's either pr + vt or it's bob + profii. I find it interesting bob and profii are not interacting with each other and bob votes me instead of profii.
What is your read o proffi. You ahve been refusing to give one at all. All of this day.
Do you scum read him, do you town read him. And why
Posted: Thu May 14, 2020 7:24 am
by bob3141
In post 1706, Adorable wrote:I'm being setup for a mislynch. That Hectic kill makes no sense since that would just put 3 vt claims setup as lynch meaning 2 scums basically outed themselves by killing a vt claim. If I was scum I would have killed a pr and not kill a vt claim.
WINOF much?
You couldnt kill dave bacause of wake. Or you were afraid to take the guilty.
You cant kill tweet as that confirms all the pr claims.
You cant kill wake as agin if you kill him it confirms the other 2.
In other words your only hope was to get a pr lynched.
You have avoid dealing with teh fact that mechanically tweet, luck and dave are town.
for any of them to be scum town would need an extra pr.
You couldnt lynch hectic as he is roundly town read. And his vote would work agains you.
His poe was adora, profii and bob.
Posted: Thu May 14, 2020 7:26 am
by bob3141
to all
we have
lucky babysitter
wake watcher
tweet neighz.
rolecop
assetic
neighz enabler
vs
known
one shot informed jailkeeper
Posted: Thu May 14, 2020 7:26 am
by bob3141
one jailkeeper is informed. Thus there is somethign scum needed to know.
two
town has 4 night visits over 4 pr
Posted: Thu May 14, 2020 7:29 am
by bob3141
normal balance is
3.5 town pr v 0.5 pr
so thats 3 pr plus one gated vs one gated scum pr
one shot can be counted as 0.25
as a full pr wil likely get at most 4 shots off. If that. As a game at most normaly has 5 nights.
Posted: Thu May 14, 2020 7:31 am
by bob3141
so if the neigbourizer is scum.
That leaves 3 pr
rolecop
watcher
babysitter.
vs
neigbourizer and one shot jail keep.
For that to be balanced town would need more power.
Posted: Thu May 14, 2020 7:36 am
by bob3141
As ascetic works against town more than scum.
Town has 4 roles that can fail in a given night.
scum normaly has no more than one gated pr role or a few heavily gated pr.
a townie
at random n1 has 1/11 chance of ability failing
n2 - 1/9
n3 - 1/7
on average 1-1.5 night actions for town will fail.
So assetic weakens town more than scum
Posted: Thu May 14, 2020 7:37 am
by bob3141
added to the fact an assetic is not strong claim to make
Prety much acts as if one town pr was slightly gated in the game
so gamma for balance could be counted as -1/4 town pr
Posted: Thu May 14, 2020 7:45 am
by bob3141
cake again was for town a negative role.
neighbourizer without enabler (slightly different odds dependign if scum or town is lynched)
day 1 1/13 of being lycnhed - 1/9 being night killed
day 2 1/11 and 1/7-1/8
at worse something like 40-45% chance of neigbourizer not living to day 3. based on random odds.
neighbouizer with enabler
2/13 and 2/9 day one
2/11 and 2/-2/8 day two.
odds are somethign like 80% town would eith lose its neigbourizer or its pr would be disabled
So enabler reduces number of times that the neighbourizer can increase the neighbourhood. Thus acts in the end as if neighbourizer had some sort of xshot gating
Posted: Thu May 14, 2020 7:47 am
by bob3141
so enabler either -1/4 or -1/2 to a weak role.
so 4pr and something like -1/2 pr from enabler and assetic
Posted: Thu May 14, 2020 4:39 pm
by Wake1
You know, I wanted setup speculation earlier, but now I'm feeling a bit overwhelmed by it.
Who here 100% currently refuses to lynch Lucky/dave slot today?
Posted: Thu May 14, 2020 4:40 pm
by Wake1
In post 1700, LuckyLuciano wrote:The way I understand it, Wake and I are mech town.
That makes the lynch pool {MT, Clidd, Profii, Bob, Adorable}. MT I think is town based on meta. Nobody seems to think you are scum. If I'm right on MT, and everyone else is right on you, then mafia is in {Profii, Bob, Adorable} and with 1 mislynch remaining we cannot lose.
I don't see that at all.
Neither of us are confirmed and the more you argue for that point the more I want to break your neck.
Posted: Thu May 14, 2020 5:00 pm
by Adorable
In post 1708, bob3141 wrote: In post 1706, Adorable wrote:I'm being setup for a mislynch. That Hectic kill makes no sense since that would just put 3 vt claims setup as lynch meaning 2 scums basically outed themselves by killing a vt claim. If I was scum I would have killed a pr and not kill a vt claim.
WINOF much?
You couldnt kill dave bacause of wake. Or you were afraid to take the guilty.
You cant kill tweet as that confirms all the pr claims.
You cant kill wake as agin if you kill him it confirms the other 2.
In other words your only hope was to get a pr lynched.
You have avoid dealing with teh fact that mechanically tweet, luck and dave are town.
for any of them to be scum town would need an extra pr.
You are twisting my words. I never suggested on lynching a pr. Morning and profii came into the thread suspecting a pr is scum, I had all the pr as a town lean last day and when I saw Morning and profii saying a scum is in the pr, I wasn't expecting a scum to be in the pr, also I was told a mini normal setup has 4 town pr and we have seen 3 town pr die and 3 pr are alive. Looks like to me you are taking advantage of my inexperience on the mini normal setup.
You couldnt lynch hectic as he is roundly town read. And his vote would work agains you.
His poe was adora, profii and bob.
Posted: Thu May 14, 2020 5:02 pm
by Adorable
In post 1708, bob3141 wrote: In post 1706, Adorable wrote:I'm being setup for a mislynch. That Hectic kill makes no sense since that would just put 3 vt claims setup as lynch meaning 2 scums basically outed themselves by killing a vt claim. If I was scum I would have killed a pr and not kill a vt claim.
WINOF much?
You couldnt kill dave bacause of wake. Or you were afraid to take the guilty.
You cant kill tweet as that confirms all the pr claims.
You cant kill wake as agin if you kill him it confirms the other 2.
In other words your only hope was to get a pr lynched.
You have avoid dealing with teh fact that mechanically tweet, luck and dave are town.
for any of them to be scum town would need an extra pr.
You couldnt lynch hectic as he is roundly town read. And his vote would work agains you.
His poe was adora, profii and bob.
You are twisting my words. I never suggested on lynching a pr. Morning and profii came into the thread suspecting a pr is scum, I had all the pr as a town lean last day and when I saw Morning and profii saying a scum is in the pr, I wasn't expecting a scum to be in the pr, also I was told a mini normal setup has 4 town pr and we have seen 3 town pr die and 3 pr are alive. Looks like to me you are taking advantage of my inexperience on the mini normal setup.
Posted: Thu May 14, 2020 5:05 pm
by Adorable
In post 1707, bob3141 wrote: In post 1688, Adorable wrote: In post 1680, Morning Tweet wrote:it's probable that either A.) bob is scum with lucky or B.) adorable is scum with profii.
what do you think of the possibility both scum is in the VTs, clidd? If so, i think that makes bob town
So it's either pr + vt or it's bob + profii. I find it interesting bob and profii are not interacting with each other and bob votes me instead of profii.
What is your read o proffi. You ahve been refusing to give one at all. All of this day.
Do you scum read him, do you town read him. And why
I don't like profii's silence in the game and I'm starting to lean scum on him. Both of you have been suspicious.
Posted: Thu May 14, 2020 5:13 pm
by Adorable
bob is unwilling to listen to anything i say. He let's his own setup spec confirm bias him into thinking i must be scum. He gives me several repetitive questions, I do my best to try and answer them (they're a mess), but it's never good enough for him and some of his posts have been really hurting my feelings calling me names.
Posted: Thu May 14, 2020 7:13 pm
by LuckyLuciano
In post 1718, Wake1 wrote: In post 1700, LuckyLuciano wrote:The way I understand it, Wake and I are mech town.
That makes the lynch pool {MT, Clidd, Profii, Bob, Adorable}. MT I think is town based on meta. Nobody seems to think you are scum. If I'm right on MT, and everyone else is right on you, then mafia is in {Profii, Bob, Adorable} and with 1 mislynch remaining we cannot lose.
I don't see that at all.
Neither of us are confirmed and the more you argue for that point the more I want to break your neck.
I mean, if you want to lose that badly...
Posted: Fri May 15, 2020 12:58 am
by clidd
I don't understand much about what Bob is talking about, but I suppose is NAI that mechanical language.