FGO: Mafia in the Lostbelt - 2 Game Over

[Servant Rider]

Lancer, how would I even begin to make the determination of whether the two of you are scum together without knowing what the ability is?

[Servant Lancer]

unless you think Avenger is lying about receiving the message (and that Avenger and I are scum together), I should be confirmed town.

[Servant Rider]

Not to mention, Avenger could also have received something else entirely and conftowned you for poor reasons.

[Servant Rider]

that's why it's weird to me that Rider is talking about believing my ability being the reason to think I'm town.

Also, I said I thought you were town

even without this ability

, which makes me think you're not even reading my posts.

[Servant Lancer]

based on the flips I have a guess. it doesn't really matter right now though.

pedit: okay. I'm not sure what you are after in asking me about it?

I'm not exactly well versed in what's going on so I thought you could have helped give perspective

okay, got it.

there's two parts - the first is that it seemed like everyone was basically calling Ruler locktown for mastina following town meta. the second part of my guess is that I

think

scum knowing someone's identity or attributes or some specific other kind of information about the servant helps with the kill or gives some kind of bonus, which is why Cabd revealed the slot's identity as a penalty. maybe part of it is also that scum thought the slot was likely to be unprotected, I don't know.

[Servant Lancer]

why does it matter whether or not you believe my ability is real then?

[Servant Archer]

Can someone explain why they are voting avenger atm?

From my pov, Saber very clearly wanted to get town cred from bussing Moon Cancer

Spoiler:

I don't believe Moon's reads changed that quickly and his intent appears to be to throw mud and see what sticks.

VOTE: Moon Caster

There is probably something significant about foreigner and saber both voting moon cancer and then both becoming the counterwagons to moon cancer but I don’t yet know what that means

Most likely that Moon Cancer is straight up scum.

I'm back here: VOTE: moon cancer

I think foreigner is town.

I think foreigner and saber both voting moon cancer and then both becoming counterwagons to moon cancer is probably town-indicative for them and scum-indicative for moon cancer, on average. (although saber could still be scum, I think moon cancer is most likely of the 3 to be scum regardless of saber's alignment). I thought saber's NP stuff was a bit oblivious and have no idea whether that's intentional or not, but on second thought I don't think I think it's inherently scummy.

I like this as its where I am at as well. Moon Caster's cavalierness (if that's a word) suggests a scumteam backing them.

I think Avenger recalling the gladiate after seeing that he was going to lose it is very NAI survivalist. He can't very well do his scum agenda and/or push his Foreigner scumread if he's dead. Foreigner resistance actually increased as a result of the play there. I'm not sure what Avenger's intention was with recalling it but that's my best guess.

Meanwhile, Moon Cancer is still scum.

VOTE: Moon Cancer

Do you guys really think that Saber went through so much trouble to try and bus Moon for the cred, and then Scum!Avenger decided to step in with that gladiate?

[Servant Archer]

Instead of, I don't know -- joining the bus?

[Servant Avenger]

second part of my guess is that I think scum knowing someone's identity or attributes or some specific other kind of information about the servant helps with the kill or gives some kind of bonus, which is why Cabd revealed the slot's identity as a penalty

The only thing with this part is that Sabre gave their name.
If they had something to suggest that knowing a name is a nerf or buff then I don't think Saber gives their name there encase town also have something.

[Servant Berserker]

based on the flips I have a guess. it doesn't really matter right now though.

pedit: okay. I'm not sure what you are after in asking me about it?

I'm not exactly well versed in what's going on so I thought you could have helped give perspective

okay, got it.

there's two parts - the first is that it seemed like everyone was basically calling Ruler locktown for mastina following town meta. the second part of my guess is that I

think

scum knowing someone's identity or attributes or some specific other kind of information about the servant helps with the kill or gives some kind of bonus, which is why Cabd revealed the slot's identity as a penalty. maybe part of it is also that scum thought the slot was likely to be unprotected, I don't know.

Spoiler: reaction image

I hadn't entirely considered the idea that the identity being revealed could be a factor

[Servant Rider]

It had more to do with 'why does Avenger think Lancer is conftown.' If he had been locktowning you for a fruit vendor or something, then I'd be a lot more suspicious. Just because it's your ability, doesn't mean I'm necessarily questioning just your alignment (or your alignment at all). I was mainly interested in Avenger's motivations, especially considering he's one of my preferred eliminations.

You claimed Friendly Neighbor, which is a fairly cut and dry ability, and not what I was expecting to begin with. But I remembered you mentioning early on that you'd be obvtown anyway, checked the post in question, and it seemed to match.

Regardless of whether or not I thought you were town, I don't see what the issue in asking what your ability does. Especially since you were willing to outright claiming it. If we're going to locktown you (or at least treat you as locktown), don't you think it would make sense for people to know why? You think I should just take some guy's word for it, especially when he was willing to gladiate someone in spite of the original modconfirmed townie proclaiming who we were going to eliminate?

[Servant Rider]

Instead of, I don't know -- joining the bus?

Because Avenger claimed miller in the face of a claimed 'cop.' The 'cop' claims the miller is irrelevant to the way his ability functions. Also, nobody has challenged Assassin's 'cop' ability directly (so no indication of another role being affected by the miller), so I believe the miller claim was done primarily in response to Assassin rather than him actually being a miller.

Avenger started the Foreigner wagon in response to the Moon Cancer wagon. Avenger also gladiated Foreigner when Moon Cancer was scheduled to be flipped. Both of these are indications to me that Foreigner was probably just being setup as the counterwagon to scum, and I think Avenger is the very strong candidate for actually being scum here.

As far as 'joining the bus' is concerned? I don't really feel like scum would be that willing to just give up a player that can modify the factional kill into a strongman. Especially in the face of a modconfirmed townie that cannot die until Night 2.

[Servant Archer]

Except the way it was done was never going to save moon.... We had a double elimination. At best, it would have moved moon from elim #1 to elim #2

And if he really was going all out to save moon, why tell us he could stop the gladiate, and why stop it?

[Servant Archer]

Unless you think that the entire scum team did not realize we had a double elim day 1?

[Servant Archer]

And are you really going to say that the scum team was not going to bus Moon... Like, Saber was very clearly trying to bus moon:

From my pov, Saber very clearly wanted to get town cred from bussing Moon Cancer

Spoiler:

I don't believe Moon's reads changed that quickly and his intent appears to be to throw mud and see what sticks.

VOTE: Moon Caster

There is probably something significant about foreigner and saber both voting moon cancer and then both becoming the counterwagons to moon cancer but I don’t yet know what that means

Most likely that Moon Cancer is straight up scum.

I'm back here: VOTE: moon cancer

I think foreigner is town.

I think foreigner and saber both voting moon cancer and then both becoming counterwagons to moon cancer is probably town-indicative for them and scum-indicative for moon cancer, on average. (although saber could still be scum, I think moon cancer is most likely of the 3 to be scum regardless of saber's alignment). I thought saber's NP stuff was a bit oblivious and have no idea whether that's intentional or not, but on second thought I don't think I think it's inherently scummy.

I like this as its where I am at as well. Moon Caster's cavalierness (if that's a word) suggests a scumteam backing them.

I think Avenger recalling the gladiate after seeing that he was going to lose it is very NAI survivalist. He can't very well do his scum agenda and/or push his Foreigner scumread if he's dead. Foreigner resistance actually increased as a result of the play there. I'm not sure what Avenger's intention was with recalling it but that's my best guess.

Meanwhile, Moon Cancer is still scum.

VOTE: Moon Cancer

[Servant Rider]

Except the way it was done was never going to save moon.... We had a double elimination. At best, it would have moved moon from elim #1 to elim #2

And if he really was going all out to save moon, why tell us he could stop the gladiate, and why stop it?

Unless you think that the entire scum team did not realize we had a double elim day 1?

I believe eliminating at least one townie on a double elimination day is miles better than potentially allowing the town to flip two scum, especially since the original Berserker was leading towards eliminating both Saber AND Moon Cancer on Day 1.

I don't understand what the second quote has to do with anything, unless you're trying to argue that Avenger is town, which I don't think he is.

Regarding Avenger saying he could stop the gladiate? Avenger's attitude seemed mostly that he felt he could win the gladiate with bravado alone. It clearly didn't work, and him claiming a way out of the gladiate seemed mostly as a way to feed into that 'confidence.' Why would a townie have the ability to cancel their gladiate as part of their gladiate ability anyway? Seems more like a mechanism to protect scum in case things go south.

[Servant Rider]

Yeah, but Saber was clearly not going to be townread if she lost the election, and I think she knew that just based on the way she campaigned.

If Saber wins the election and flips scum, are we more or less inclined to believe her scumread on Moon Cancer? In the face of losing the election and several other players suspecting her anyways, what would be the harm to the scumteam in just her sitting on the Moon Cancer wagon?

Unfortunately for them, we eliminated them both regardless.

[Servant Archer]

I believe eliminating at least one townie on a double elimination day is miles better than potentially allowing the town to flip two scum, especially since the original Berserker was leading towards eliminating both Saber AND Moon Cancer on Day 1.

This is not true. Berserker wanted to kill Moon Cancer, then Avenger.

If anything, notscience appeared to be softening on Saber after Saber claimed, and was moving away from that.

[Servant Rider]

Yes, but before that, he was leaning Saber AND Moon Cancer.

And even if it's Moon Cancer and Avenger that are scheduled to die, that's even more reason for scum-Avenger to gladiate a townie, don't you think?

[Servant Archer]

Okay, I don't want to 1v1 you over this Rider, but Avenger being scum really just does not make sense, and I am gonna yell at anyone else who votes there

[Servant Rider]

How does it not make sense?

Do you believe he's actually a miller?

[Servant Rider]

I'm actually more curious in why you think all our Day 1 wagons were on scum. Like, is your game-breaking analysis that the scumteam just let the town wagon all the scum without going for a townie?

[Servant Archer]

How does it not make sense?

Do you believe he's actually a miller?

Yes. I actually believe the miller claim more then the cop claim from Assassin tbh.

After the miller claim, Assassin came back and said that his cop ability was worded in such a way that he was certain that it would by-pass a miller.

So, if you want to look at people making claims in response to other claims already on the table, I would point you there.

And if Assassin is telling the truth, why would his ability be worded in such a way that makes it clear it would by pass a miller, unless we have a miller.

------------

And even then, fuck the mech -- Avengers play is probably the dumbest possible play for scum to make Day 1 with his gladiate ability. If they thought Saber was going down no matter what, then you gladiate Saber. If they thought that Moon Cancer was going down no matter what, you bus Moon Cancer for the cred.

You are trying to say that Scum!Avenger was trying to get a foreigner elim out of the gladiate, but here is what the confirmed scum said in response

VOTE: Avenger

Hijacking the thread when there's a uniform townblock is just a scumclaim. Scum want to take over against a unified town block unless they express doubt first.

Saber planned on living, Saber planned on bussing Moon. Avenger fucked up that plan, and Saber jumped on the opportunity to get an elim on Avenger

[Servant Rider]

Why do you believe the Miller claim and not the 'cop' claim? That seems fairly counter-intuitive. Especially since the 'cop' claimed first AND said they were incompatible with the miller claim instead of using the miller claim as support for believing their own claim.

It also seems strange to have a miller and a "miller-proof" cop - unless we also have a non-miller proof cop, and I don't know how likely it is that Cabd would give us multiple cops

Considering that a lot of these super abilities are probably ***** and that it would take 5 days/nights to charge, most of these abilities will probably not see usage without outside help.

And I don't really believe the miller claim and feel like it was mostly done in reaction to Assassin indicating he had a cop-like ability.

I agree with the last paragraph and I want to believe assassin is lying.

Not to mention, the part here about Saber

wanting

to believe Assassin is lying makes me more inclined to believe that Assassin is town and telling the truth here.

[Servant Archer]

I'm actually more curious in why you think all our Day 1 wagons were on scum. Like, is your game-breaking analysis that the scumteam just let the town wagon all the scum without going for a townie?

My game breaking analysis is that the scum team was trying to buss Moon Cancer, so they were not out pushing wagons on a townie. And I think that that is why both Foreigner and Saber jumped on that push early. And also why Foreigner tried to bring it back up for the cred later.

Me and saber were first to catch Moon, so you should follow me now.