Combined with the fact people are more willing to vote Salsa means that we’re looking at a very weird situation if you’re town and Salsa is scum here.
As elo approaches the people who want to vote scum are less and less which is why conf!town driving a situation like this is better because they can pressure someone and then if someone wants that person not to be elimmed they have to defend that person. There’s no but “what if scum is pushing me” they aren’t because conf!town is
Posted: Sat Jul 31, 2021 8:35 pm
by Salsabil Faria
In post 1664, ManateeDude wrote:Salsa could you at least give me a basic readslist,,, marci too
I give you a juicy POE instead...
POE_01: {
Dwlee
(I'm betting my life on it ) >
Marci
>
Math
(they can be the deep wolf ) >
Not_Mafia
}
Or,
POE_2: {
Dwlee
>
Math
>
Marci
>
Not_Mafia
}
Whatever you choose after my green flip today but if it’s you somehow then I'm happy to loose
Posted: Sat Jul 31, 2021 8:38 pm
by MathBlade
1399 does hang around for a bit but that town and scum didn’t take it means something I don’t know what yet.
that now
Btw, how you can be 100% about anyone’s alignment if you're town, hmm??
Posted: Sat Jul 31, 2021 8:40 pm
by Salsabil Faria
In post 1674, geraintm wrote:BTW, sorry for spamming but I hope people understand why
actually I don’t
Posted: Sat Jul 31, 2021 8:42 pm
by Salsabil Faria
In post 1685, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:As for reads, the order I asked for claims in sums it up for me. I'm TRing Mathblade, mostly for the DGB vote, but also trusting Titus on this a bit. My biggest SRs are Salsabil and I was kinda letting Marci slide by for her place on the DGB wagon D1, before I realized the context of her vote. I thought because we had so many of the same people moving around to multiple wagons on D1 that it would be a good game to try some VCA in but I think it blinded me to Marci.
That hammer was scummy, but I feel like, with 2 miselims left, and having 4 plausible scum, it would be ideal to hit scum today and not be banking on tomorrow. This is the order, with scumreads at the top, then not_mafia is kinda policy, kinda lurk-scummy. I'll get to that. Then Dwlee still has the same points against him from end of D1, and I keep thinking he could possibly be partners with MathBlade, and that's my nightmare scumteam right now because I don't think I'd catch them unless we flip scum!dwlee toDay. And I'm much more confident in Salsa and would rather lim her toDay.
Salsabil - she generally puts in more effort as town I feel like. This game feels subdued, like she's not having meaningful attempts to sort, not as aggressive as usual. Giving up and self-voting while DGB was being wagonee looks very bad as well. I'm most confident in Salsa being scum.
Marci - I had been TRing her because she was one of the wagons from D1 that lead up to DGB, and she was on DGBs wagon at the end of the day. But I think she slipped by because I didn't examine the reason her vote was on DGB. MathBlade's point that the wagon flashed so fast she couldn't get off of it does make sense. We've also seen everyone else but Math and I, and I know I'm town and think Math is too, so I dont think there was an intentional bus. But Marci could still be scum that was stuck on DGB's wagon.
--
Not_Mafia - I see now he's claimed VT but I think "doctor's orders" and "I'm wounded" are obvious doctor softs and considering there are 2 softs in such a small iso I can see scum!Not_Mafia trying to fend off lurker scumreads by softing PR. I think he should have been shot if he was town, and that a town doctor doesnt make sense with a Babysitter, but maybe a mafia Jailkeeper could pretend to be a doctor.
Besides the softs though, he hasn't voted really in this game which makes him a liability in MELO. Self-voted all of D1 and wasn't around to vote on D2.
I did like the comment he made on not liking how quickly saudade lost his hate boner that came up during my iso read of someone else. I didnt think much of it when I first read it but it took deeper reading for me to figure what it meant so I feel like it's indicative of a real thought process that might be hard to fake as scum. It's not enough for me to write him off though, I still find the doctor softs suspicious.
--
Dwlee - I feel like he makes sense with Mathblade or N_M given his stance on Marci and Salsabil, though if he is scum with Marci he is somewhat forced to bus her at this point. I didn't like his position on the D1 wagons and I do think he sheeps too much, but I'm not sure if I'm seeing anything inherently scummy here besides being wrong about DGB. I'm having a hard time recalling anything distinct about him though. I do remember he faked mason at the start of the game and seemed to be buddying me when he voted Roden. And he made omo look scummy with him since the two of them were on other wagons but not DGBs, and then he wouldn't hammer DGB, and omo did instead. He was happy enough to sheep me on Roden at the start of the game, happy to sheep Saudade, but wouldn't hammer DGB. So maybe after writing this I'm thinking he's more suspicious than before.
Pedit: yes I am a VT and seeing as nobody claimed vigilante or another PR, I dont see scum having a need for a doctor or JK (N_M).
Tbh I was expecting someone to claim something weakly swingy like a 1-shot or non-consecutive vig or something which could explain scum!N_M having a protective role and softing doctor.
In post 1690, MathBlade wrote:Not Mafia is a known troll. Look at his signature. Trying to predict him is like trying to predict a fair d20. You might be right 5% of the time but best to force him to play.
3 goons + weak TPR is balanced. Mountainous is very hard on town. (Much as mountainous is one of my favorite setups)
An extremely good (imho) way to balance a setup is start from light PR then counter balance each side.
They added friendly neighbor / innocent child as those PRs.
Then okay town needs a protective to help with PRs…hmmm doctor? No then you have elo problems…then likely swapped it to babysitter to ensure mass claim can’t protect innos.
Then scum don’t have much in the way to hunt and so no PRs needed.
I agree it’s possible Marci was ditzy but not probable. I would rather know if she was ditzy or not going into elo versus take a risk on Salsa or Dwlee. By your argument we could also elim Salsa first then we could easily lose to a different subset.
Yeah but it dlesnt help me that the team I am most likely to lose to if we start Marci is you/dwlee. So I am especially averse to Marci when it is you that wants it. If Salsa flips town I think it triggers reevaluation. But if Marci flips town, I still want Salsa. So I'd rather start Salsa and reevaluate if I'm wrong.
Town can accidentally hammer, but the self-voting was not an accident. I dont think that is in Salsabil's townrange, and frankly, I know from owners market blitz that Marci is easily confused. It is entirely possible she did it by accident. Let's nail one scum today and keep our mislims available to us so we can go to the end with the best possible 3-4 if we mess up.
For argument's sake, let's say Marci is scum though. Who is her partner if not Salsa?
Then you should eliminate me today, to keep me alive for killing me tomorrow = Mafia's win
Posted: Sat Jul 31, 2021 8:47 pm
by Salsabil Faria
In post 1697, MathBlade wrote:I would say based on these last few pages your stock would diminish greatly if Salsa is town and Marci is scum because you actively tried to derail the Marci elim. Before today if you had asked me that question I would say Dwlee then NM then you but if that was the case throw you all in a pressure cooker and see who comes up.
I know this is a non answer but if we elim Salsa and he’s town that’s a scary proposition here because I have had a feeling a deep wolf was on DGB’s hammer and not having been able to sort there really irks me.
In post 1697, MathBlade wrote:I would say based on these last few pages your stock would diminish greatly if Salsa is town and Marci is scum because you actively tried to derail the Marci elim. Before today if you had asked me that question I would say Dwlee then NM then you but if that was the case throw you all in a pressure cooker and see who comes up.
I know this is a non answer but if we elim Salsa and he’s town that’s a scary proposition here because I have had a feeling a deep wolf was on DGB’s hammer and not having been able to sort there really irks me.
I'm town and a
She
I apologize I am usually better with pronouns as they are important to me.
And got your message Manatee. You’re still a friendly neighbor.
this was what u og said today, but as time went on... salsabil doesn't seem to be on ur mind as much.. is there a reason u decided to just focus hard on me?
1399 does this post still have any weight in ur mind today??
And got your message Manatee. You’re still a friendly neighbor.
this was what u og said today, but as time went on... salsabil doesn't seem to be on ur mind as much.. is there a reason u decided to just focus hard on me?
1399 does this post still have any weight in ur mind today??
In post 1697, MathBlade wrote:I would say based on these last few pages your stock would diminish greatly if Salsa is town and Marci is scum because you actively tried to derail the Marci elim. Before today if you had asked me that question I would say Dwlee then NM then you but if that was the case throw you all in a pressure cooker and see who comes up.
I know this is a non answer but if we elim Salsa and he’s town that’s a scary proposition here because I have had a feeling a deep wolf was on DGB’s hammer and not having been able to sort there really irks me.
I'm town and a
She
I apologize I am usually better with pronouns as they are important to me.
Not sure about the town part though.
You don't have to be sure, do what
ssbm
's want, eliminate me today... Everything will be clear after that. If you've time, can read my recent games. But leaving me today will cause town's loose over elo, I'm always a miselimination target, also don't think I can convince town ever, so eliminate me it's the best choice for town atm.
In post 1697, MathBlade wrote:I would say based on these last few pages your stock would diminish greatly if Salsa is town and Marci is scum because you actively tried to derail the Marci elim. Before today if you had asked me that question I would say Dwlee then NM then you but if that was the case throw you all in a pressure cooker and see who comes up.
I know this is a non answer but if we elim Salsa and he’s town that’s a scary proposition here because I have had a feeling a deep wolf was on DGB’s hammer and not having been able to sort there really irks me.
I'm town and a
She
I apologize I am usually better with pronouns as they are important to me.
Not sure about the town part though.
You don't have to be sure, do what
ssbm
's want, eliminate me today... Everything will be clear after that. If you've time, can read my recent games. But leaving me today will cause town's loose over elo, I'm always a miselimination target, also don't think I can convince town ever, so eliminate me it's the best choice for town atm.
I don’t see how this makes anything clear if you’re town?
) > 
) > 
