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Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2020 6:22 am
by Infinity 324
Purple Heart wrote:You also wanna talk about hwo you didn't talk Taly's approach in goodfaith?
You wanna talk about that too?
He asked me to ask him questions. I didn’t really have anything to ask him, but I did anyway because he wanted me too. What are you on about?

Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2020 6:22 am
by tracy flick
In post 1723, MURDERCAT wrote:why so down on gamma? Didn't you vote him onto the council?
no, the only person i voted for council was you. well other than myself. gamma emerald behaviour change with purple heart entrance feels not right to me.

Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2020 6:23 am
by Purple Heart
In post 1725, Infinity 324 wrote:
Purple Heart wrote:You also wanna talk about hwo you didn't talk Taly's approach in goodfaith?
You wanna talk about that too?
He asked me to ask him questions. I didn’t really have anything to ask him, but I did anyway because he wanted me too. What are you on about?
In post 1401, Infinity 324 wrote: feels like stretching to find reasons for reads.

Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2020 6:23 am
by MURDERCAT
In post 1726, tracy flick wrote:
In post 1723, MURDERCAT wrote:why so down on gamma? Didn't you vote him onto the council?
no, the only person i voted for council was you. well other than myself. gamma emerald behaviour change with purple heart entrance feels not right to me.
Can you quote a post or two, not sure I follow

Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2020 6:26 am
by Infinity 324
In post 1727, Purple Heart wrote:
In post 1725, Infinity 324 wrote:
Purple Heart wrote:You also wanna talk about hwo you didn't talk Taly's approach in goodfaith?
You wanna talk about that too?
He asked me to ask him questions. I didn’t really have anything to ask him, but I did anyway because he wanted me too. What are you on about?
In post 1401, Infinity 324 wrote: feels like stretching to find reasons for reads.
I saw something I found scummy and pointed it out.

I’m pretty sure gamma is town and the fact that everyone finds him suspicious now and not yesterday is weirding me the hell out. He’s not trying to look town anywhere and his approach is very natural IMO.

Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2020 6:26 am
by tracy flick
In post 1608, Purple Heart wrote:sorry for alt slipping but hopefully everything works?
hm.

Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2020 6:26 am
by Purple Heart
In post 1729, Infinity 324 wrote:
In post 1727, Purple Heart wrote:
In post 1725, Infinity 324 wrote:
Purple Heart wrote:You also wanna talk about hwo you didn't talk Taly's approach in goodfaith?
You wanna talk about that too?
He asked me to ask him questions. I didn’t really have anything to ask him, but I did anyway because he wanted me too. What are you on about?
In post 1401, Infinity 324 wrote: feels like stretching to find reasons for reads.
I saw something I found scummy and pointed it out.

I’m pretty sure gamma is town and the fact that everyone finds him suspicious now and not yesterday is weirding me the hell out. He’s not trying to look town anywhere and his approach is very natural IMO.
Okay
explain it then

Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2020 6:27 am
by MURDERCAT
no you should wait like 15 minutes please

Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2020 6:27 am
by tracy flick
In post 1728, MURDERCAT wrote:Can you quote a post or two, not sure I follow
like gamma was fairly inactive and then it felt like he saw an opportunity to me, not sure what you want me to quote

Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2020 6:29 am
by MURDERCAT
In post 1733, tracy flick wrote:
In post 1728, MURDERCAT wrote:Can you quote a post or two, not sure I follow
like gamma was fairly inactive and then it felt like he saw an opportunity to me, not sure what you want me to quote
Like where you thought his behavior changed? Where did you think he was being opportunistic?

Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2020 6:35 am
by tracy flick
In post 1734, MURDERCAT wrote:Like where you thought his behavior changed? Where did you think he was being opportunistic?
oh, when purple heart replaced dkkoba. like here is the reasoning gamma gave beforehand:
In post 188, Gamma Emerald wrote:Tbh I’m feeling a bit of an emotional drag rn, nothing that will hurt my ability to really play but I feel less motivated rn
and then almost immediately upon purple heart entrance gamma like, got involved in the game and townread them, like it felt like an opportunity to get onto the council potentially

but like i said before they also seem to have a storied history, so

Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2020 6:46 am
by tracy flick
In post 1650, kookiemonster wrote:@_@
*confusion*
hm.

Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2020 6:47 am
by tracy flick
In post 1662, kookiemonster wrote:Like I don't necessarily have a problem with what they say but they only pop in every now and then to comment on like one thing
i mean, if you want me to comment on anything you can just ask,

Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2020 6:49 am
by tracy flick
In post 1674, MURDERCAT wrote:I'll just say I'm pretty confident I know the scum team, just waiting on tracy post
carry on

Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2020 7:08 am
by Purple Heart
btw I've been using this time to work on a case.
So...

Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2020 7:09 am
by Purple Heart
Its not nearly close to done yet but I'm not posting it until Murder said his peace anyways.
What he has could just prompt me to drop my read entirely apparently so...

Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2020 7:16 am
by MURDERCAT
This is the list we are dealing with:

MURDERCAT
Infinity 324
tracy flick
kookiemonster
Uncrowned
Purple Heart
Gamma Emerald

Of this list, I'm obviously aware that I am town and I have decently strong TRs on Uncrowned and Noraa. I think those are pretty uncontroversial. That leaves us with this:

Infinity 324
tracy flick
Purple Heart
Gamma Emerald

If we picked totally randomly, here are the odds of having scum on the council:
0: 43%
1: 49%
2: 8%

Considering that scum is obviously also trying to get on the council (and has the info to make this easier), the odds there is scum on it is even higher. Now for results:

tracy did not go anywhere last night.

We docced Infinity and Flea was the target


This should further increase the probability that scum was on the council because we also missed two independent 1/8 shots.

Now for what happened in the council.
We assumed that there was no scum on the council.


If there was scum on the council the track would be useless and the doc would be mostly useless so IMO this was the best course of action. Assuming MURDERCAT/Infinity/Gamma were all clear led Infinity and I to the possible scum pair of tracy/purple for a number of reasons.

But now we have to account for both possible universes.

If there is no scum on the council, what play makes the most sense? To me, I think you just have to send whichever player is more TRd and shoot a somewhat universal TR and hope for the best, I mean that's what you do in a normal game that might have a tracker and doc right?

In the universe where there is scum on the council there are I think two plays that make the most sense.
1. Use the info to kill a universal TR without fear of doc and track
or
2. No kill to get a hard TR for the people on the council

But scum instead killed Flea. Why?

I think there is scum on the council. The flea kill is trying to take a middle of the road approach, making it look like there is no scum on the council (like they were worried about doc) while also framing Purple because there was so much talk about purple in the hood. Why is this better than a no kill? I think because
tracy is the partner and they wanted the inno on tracy
.
In post 1714, tracy flick wrote:
In post 1592, Uncrowned wrote:Flea is an interesting selection. Surface level NKA points to Purple potentially wanting that slot dead judging by end of day interactions between the two of them, I think?
yeah, purple heart or framing purple heart seem most likely options
In post 1594, Uncrowned wrote:Also I just realized there's a high ass probability of 2 scum on wagon. This is gonna be fun.
well from your pov, since all of the wagon is still alive and you weren't on it, yeah
Framing purple is clearly something that is on tracy's mind. I don't believe anyone else brought up this possibility so explicitly so far today.

So who is the scum on the council? I will say I think it's Gamma. Obviously I know it's not me and Infinity had good posts in the hood and I don't think his progression on me makes much sense at all if he is scum. Gamma on the other hand was basically absent from the hood, though of course there is the holiday and stuff so read as much into that as you want.

So anyway,
my solve is Gamma, Tracy


This is also based on some associative work I did in the hood by looking at all of the proposals. In particular I want to draw attention to and that suspiciously mention tracy (IMO, I mean the iso was basically all mech D1, definitely not a basis for a strong TR).

This is also in addition to what I think is not a lot of scum hunting in Tracy's iso and a suspicious hammer. So basically, I say we flip tracy today and exclude Gamma from the council.

Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2020 7:18 am
by Purple Heart
What were each player's approach to the council?

Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2020 7:23 am
by MURDERCAT
I suggested the assume we are town approach. Infinity and Gamma agreed with the logic. I had my associative work prepared, which lead me to these possible teams (again, assuming no scum on council):

{tracy, Purple}
{Noraa, Purple}
{Uncrowned, Purple}

From there is was fairly obvious which team had the highest likelihood based on our reads. This also fit with a read list that Infinity had given before I posted my work. Infinity suggested that he be docced because he was worried about you killing him. I suggested an unlikely doc target who was still TR'd would be good, namely Uncrowned. Gamma was absent for this part of the conversation. As for the track, Infinity thought you might be wifoming when you said to track tracy, so that's why we went there.

Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2020 7:23 am
by Purple Heart
The way I see Tracy, I wanted you to track her.
My mindset on the slot is I can think of a lot of reasons why she's scum.
- She basically got a free pass and no one really talked about the slot or thought about it.
- Hammer can be a scum hammer.

However, there is somethings I can say that make me feel like Tracy could be town, and this is the most important thing ot me.

From Tracy's POV, I don't think she's really aligned with anyone?
Like she really comes across as just doing her own thing to me.

I also think the scum in the council is Infinity and I will be casing it. It just makes perfect sense for Infinity to be scum.

Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2020 7:24 am
by Purple Heart
A lot of that is why she felt like a good person to track.
ESPECIALLY the fact that no one really talks about her?

Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2020 7:24 am
by kookiemonster
hey I'm not caught up but why the fuck and I'm skyrocketing high in everyone's reads lists? Yesterday when I was literally begging people to put me on the damn council, everyone was all, u aint towny enough missy. Instead we're gonna throw a lurky af gamma in for ??? reason.

Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2020 7:25 am
by kookiemonster
*am

Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2020 7:25 am
by MURDERCAT
You are welcome to make an argument for it, but I think tracy should be the flip today. I think there examples of associations between Gamma and tracy (even just now when I pressed about the read there) but I think I should wait until we get confirmation of tracy's alignment.

Posted: Fri Nov 27, 2020 7:25 am
by Purple Heart
Like if its not Infinity its Gamma.
Gamma to me honestly in retrospect, seems like he's coasting and I can't exactly remember for the life of me why I liked his posting.
I think I liked his take on Uncrowned when I said that Uncrowned could be TMI'ing me?

Like I'm not sure about this and I'm going after Infinity.

Infinity just makes the most sense to me.