FGO: Mafia in the Lostbelt - 2 Game Over

[Servant Rider]

You're so deep into this fantasy of yours that I don't really think you're worth the effort of salvation.

[Servant Archer]

Spoiler:

Why do you believe the Miller claim and not the 'cop' claim? That seems fairly counter-intuitive. Especially since the 'cop' claimed first AND said they were incompatible with the miller claim instead of using the miller claim as support for believing their own claim.

It also seems strange to have a miller and a "miller-proof" cop - unless we also have a non-miller proof cop, and I don't know how likely it is that Cabd would give us multiple cops

Considering that a lot of these super abilities are probably ***** and that it would take 5 days/nights to charge, most of these abilities will probably not see usage without outside help.

And I don't really believe the miller claim and feel like it was mostly done in reaction to Assassin indicating he had a cop-like ability.

I agree with the last paragraph and I want to believe assassin is lying.

Not to mention, the part here about Saber

wanting

to believe Assassin is lying makes me more inclined to believe that Assassin is town and telling the truth here.

I think Assassin is town here. Just with less certainty then I believe Avenger is town.

[Servant Rider]

I'm just going to sit here and watch the results of this wagon.

[Servant Rider]

And if Assassin is telling the truth, why would his ability be worded in such a way that makes it clear it would by pass a miller, unless we have a miller.

I'm pretty sure Assassin indicated that he

was not

expecting a miller to be in the setup and don't think his ability was worded in a way to bypass a miller specifically. I'm pretty sure Assassin only said that their ability would not be affected by one.

[Servant Caster]

idk, I expected them to leave the slot alive simply because the reads coming from it were bad. First the slot hard defended moon, then the slot hard defended Saber. Seems like the person to keep alive to me.

that's kind of what Mastina does when she is town, her hardest townreads are usually scum

[Servant Caster]

I think this has the best chance of flipping scum here:

VOTE: Beast

[Servant Rider]

Hello, I'm here.

I am claiming Miller. You know what helps to sniff out a false Miller? Becoming the master!

My NP goes through this. I am surprised that miller would be a thing in this setup.

As a note about the miller claim, my ability is more complicated than "select target - learn alignment". It will however produce an 100% effective un-counterable cop result.

[Servant Archer]

Are you really so sure that Foeigner is town? Based on what? The fact that the scum were not building a counter wagon on a townie?

What evidence do you have that they wanted a counter wagon on a townie, and were not focused more on a bus?

The thing is, we have two confirmed scum's votes we can look back on. And guess what? Neither one were voting for a townie:

VOTE: Saber
Well, that is easy. Thanks for claiming scum.

Meanwhile, Moon Cancer is still scum.

VOTE: Moon Cancer

We know for a fact that the scum players we know about were cross voting. What about that tells you that they were not planning a bus?
Why are you so sure that those two would be cross voting, but the other scum players would not be involved with what they were doing?

[Servant Caster]

Spoiler: Vote Counts

With 14 players alive, it will take 8 votes to burn a servant.

Foreigner (4): Avenger, Beast, Ruler, Moon Cancer
Saber (4): Alter Ego, Rider, Lancer, Archer
Moon Cancer (2): Foreigner, Saber

Deadline: (expired on 2021-07-12 00:17:51)


Page Usage: 7/42

With 14 players alive, it will take 8 votes to burn a servant.

Foreigner (4): Avenger, Beast, Ruler, Moon Cancer
Saber (4): Alter Ego, Rider, Lancer, Archer
Moon Cancer (2): Foreigner, Saber

Deadline: (expired on 2021-07-12 00:17:51)


Page Usage: 8/42

With 14 players alive, it will take 8 votes to burn a servant.

Saber (6): Alter Ego, Rider, Lancer, Archer, Moon Cancer, Shielder
Foreigner (3): Avenger, Beast, Ruler
Moon Cancer (2): Foreigner, Saber

Deadline: (expired on 2021-07-12 00:17:51)


Page Usage: 9/42

With 14 players alive, it will take 8 votes to burn a servant.

Saber (4): Alter Ego, Rider, Archer, Moon Cancer
Foreigner (3): Avenger, Beast, Ruler
Moon Cancer (3): Foreigner, Saber, Lancer

Deadline: (expired on 2021-07-12 00:17:51)


Page Usage: 12/42

I have a hard time believing that every wagon in early D1 was on scum, which would be kind of crazy for a game state.

[Servant Shielder]

I was shot at last night, I have an ability that delays my death until the end of this day phase.

[Servant Archer]

I know Ruler was kind of obvious town, but that is still a weird kill.

VOTE: Avenger

For now. I might change to foreigner later, I'm thinking on it.

Avenger being scum really just does not make sense, and I am gonna yell at anyone else who votes there

@Berserker, consider yourself being yelled at

[Servant Rider]

Avenger is just scum. You've yet to explain to me why Avenger is town (or at least what you have presented is wildly insufficient to do so).

Foreigner is just the scum counterwagon. I don't think his posting has been that scummy either. Trollish at times, yes, but I don't have an issue with their posting, at least not in light of Saber's and Moon Cancer's alignments.

Even independently of wagons or whatever Saber and Moon Cancer were doing (and your wild and outlandish theory), I would think Avenger to be scum and Foreigner to be town (or at least more likely than Avenger).

I feel like the simplest and most likely explanation for what happened on Day 1 is for Foreigner to be town and Avenger to be scum, whereas I need to jump through many hoops to reach the opposite conclusion that you're presenting to me, which I just don't see being a thing.

[Servant Archer]

I know Ruler was kind of obvious town, but that is still a weird kill.

VOTE: Avenger

For now. I might change to foreigner later, I'm thinking on it.

Avenger being scum really just does not make sense, and I am gonna yell at anyone else who votes there

@

Berserker

Beast, consider yourself being yelled at

[Servant Caster]

Notsci said Foreigner was the scum counterwagon and I miss him

[Servant Archer]

I feel like the simplest and most likely explanation for what happened on Day 1 is for Foreigner to be town and Avenger to be scum, whereas I need to jump through many hoops to reach the opposite conclusion that you're presenting to me, which I just don't see being a thing.

Literally the only "hoop" to jump through is that the scum team was focused on busing, instead of focusing on building a counter wagon. That's it.

You are acting like that takes mental gymnastics.

Even if you think that your suggestion makes more sense, that is a wildly disingenuous representation of the way I am leaning

[Servant Rider]

Archer, I want your thoughts on 1731, especially in light of this so-called miller claim.

[Servant Caster]

I would be happy with an Avenger or Beast flip at this moment in time.

[Servant Rider]

I was shot at last night, I have an ability that delays my death until the end of this day phase.

This further cements my suspicions of Beast being scum here, and I don't have a preference between eliminating Beast or Avenger.

[Servant Caster]

Maybe the scum have some kind of ability that allows them a bonus NK if they know the name of the character

that would explain the double kill

[Servant Rider]

I have a different theory. And it involves Archer specifically.

[Servant Archer]

I have a different theory. And it involves Archer specifically.

I am interested to hear it

[Servant Rider]

I currently believe you're responsible for Ruler's elimination and are currently trying to eliminate Foreigner as recompense.

[Servant Archer]

I currently believe you're responsible for Ruler's elimination and are currently trying to eliminate Foreigner as recompense.

??

I am not a Vigilante.

As soon as Saber flipped scum, I was immediately pretty sure that both Ruler was town, because I doubted a scum player would actually so brazenly defend 2 partners in a row.

And I don't need ruler as an excuse to want a foreigner flip anyways. Independent of everything else, foreigner has been my top scum read for a while.

[Servant Beast]

I was shot at last night, I have an ability that delays my death until the end of this day phase.

This is not great.

[Servant Beast]

We either have a vig or scum have two kills.
If we have a vig, they suck.
Exponentially.