Tina has 3 votes (Richard, Misty, Tom)
Richard has 1 vote (Tina)
1 player is voting for a No Lynch (John)
4 are not voting (Bruce, Charles, Mary Rose, Vicki)
9 alive, eh, 5 to lynch.
Stop evading the question by reciting mafia catechisms and think about this situation at hand. Given these two statements.armlx wrote:We aren't progressing towards eliminating the scum without a lynch, with two deaths a night most likely. Seems loose.
Debonair Danny DiPietro wrote:1) If we mislynch today then there's a good chance we lose. 2) Co-ordinated night actions will find scum.
armlx wrote:We don't actually have time on our side in this set up. We have to go for it.
I've been reading, just not posting. I agree on the Grimmy/Bruce. I would like to hear some reasoning from armlx/Misty, because I gotta say my intuition agrees with his insinuations.Y wrote:I think there's been a wile since we heard of Mary Rose, Vicki, Richard and Tom. Bruce's post has no real content but "Look at me! I'm not lurking".
What I mean is that in priniciple, I see No lynch as a complete waste of a day, and gives the scum a free shot, which is why I tend to avoid these NL situations. But in this set-up, D³ (forgot character name at the moment) has a good point, so I am not as dead set as I would normally be about it.imaginality wrote:Wow Bruce, fence-sitting much?
If you mean John's claim that a no-lynch today makes us less likely to be in a losing position tomorrow, I still think that is countered by my point:Grimmy wrote:But in this set-up, D³ (forgot character name at the moment) has a good point
Basically, our chances of random-lynching successfully today = 44%. (And I'd argue that Tina, and John too, are slightly better than random lynches, anyhow).imaginality wrote:The other problem is that [...] assuming scum are smart, at the very best we have a ~50% chance of lynching scum tomorrow. And a few ways we can lose in the night still.
@armlx and malthusis: Who do you think is scum besides me? Who else should be noticed? Why am I more scummy than all the people who let both the mafia-doc and SK-doc die N0?
The answer to the first part is don't give a fuck, that's what night actions are for BTW.Choosing not to jailkeep a doc is reasonable. Jailkeep is also stronger then conditional doc, so Bruce's weak doc choice is right by far.
Personally, I would say maybe DDP, but most info this game is going to come tomorrow morning once we get night actions set.
You also can't compare this scenario to people finding normal tells scummy, its a night action choice here. No similarity.
imaginality wrote:We lynch Tina.
Richard stalks Bruce.
Bruce protects someone.
Tom watches Bruce.
I target Mary Rose and vice versa.
John targets Vicki or Bruce (flips a coin).
Misty targets me.
This way:
If Bruce does not protect someone, Richard would know. (Also if Bruce protects someone and dies, Richard would know who Bruce's target was.)
If Richard does not stalk Bruce, Tom would know.
If Tom does not watch Bruce, there is a 50/50 shot of him being caught out depending if John targeted Bruce or not.
If Vicki does not self-watch, there is a 50/50 shot of her being caught out depending if John targeted Vicki or not.
If I do not jail Mary Rose, there is a 50/50 shot of her vigging me.
If Misty does not target me, we will know.
If John does not steal someone's vote, we will know.
Mary Rose cannot kill.
Suggested claim order:
Tom (confirms he saw Richard target Bruce)
Bruce (says who he protected)
Richard (confirms he saw Bruce visit who Bruce said he did)
Vicki (says if she saw John target her)
Tom (says if he saw John target Bruce)
John (confirms if he targeted Vicki or Bruce)
Misty's action is confirmed if I'm silenced.
My jailing of Mary Rose is 50% confirmed if I'm alive.
Mary Rose being jailed (and therefore cleared of making any kills) is also 50% confirmed if I'm alive.