Mini 48 (Quantum Mafia) Day Five, Only one is left....

[mole]

Wouldn't call it lurking, it was more not turning up at all (modem broke :( )

But I'm back now.

[mole]

I have to agree with Wacky - there is probably a SK around as well as the mafia (probably only one mafia though). This still doesn't explain who killed mlaker, or why his role still hasn't been revealed.

About Macros: He had to pick two people, one of them was the monopole, the other was the one he 'investigated' (for lack of a better term). I say the monopole reveals himself, if it will help Macros determine which of his targets was the one whose motive he knows. Any thoughts?

[Fletcher]

What if mlaker was the monopole? Maybe when Macros experimented with them mlaker died. I don't know, just a thought.

Oh, and

Unvote:Wacky

[JereIC]

About Macros: He had to pick two people, one of them was the monopole, the other was the one he 'investigated' (for lack of a better term). I say the monopole reveals himself, if it will help Macros determine which of his targets was the one whose motive he knows. Any thoughts?

*smacks forehead* You're right, when I read the role I thought Macros would submit something along the lines of "Joe: Monopole, Bob: Scum".

Ok, the magnetic monopole is either mlaker or still alive (no player named still alive, right?), so it comes down to whether the other person Macros investigated is alive. I guess Macros should tell us only if both players he investigated are alive. Any more info could prompt scum to claim to be the monoploe, or reveal the monopole unnecessarily (no telling what awesome powers he has now that he's been found), and just create all sorts of hell for us.

Wacky: I honestly think you're right about the killing parties, but it's possible that there's two remaining mafia and a serial killer. Not likely, since minis have been leaning towards two maf and one SK for a while, but there's no telling in Mathcam's games. It's also possible there's a GF with extra kills, or a virtual particle that kills (and decays at some point), so I think we should play better safe than sorry in voting.

[JereIC]

Uhm, Macros? Wacky? Fletcher? Bueller?

[Fletcher]

I'm waiting on Macros to reveal what he did night one. (if it is not a problem, Macros) If Macros is not willing to reveal I suggest we get cracking.

Who looks most suspicious to you guys? For me it would be Wacky but that's just because nothing's happened since yesterday.

[Wacky]

Okay, since there aren't much votes on me at the moment I won't roleclaim and stuff... I analysed the situation posted by JereIC / SK added by myself:

(2 Mafia who reveal themselves in jumping on a lynch + 1 SK)
3 Townies


Likelihood: probably very very low (probably Monopole and Shrodingers Cat being neutral and all)

Lynch Innocent:

Case 1: SK doesn't kill a mafia (dumb), Mafia kills townie
Day 3: 0 or 1 Townies, 2 Mafia, 1 SK - Mafia win probable

Case 2: SK doesn't kill mafia, mafia kills SK - Mafia win

Case 3: SK kills mafia, Mafia kills SK
Day 3: 2 Townies, 1 Mafia (Town win possible)

Case 4: SK kills mafia, Mafia kills townie
Day 4: 1 Townie, 1 Mafia, 1 SK
===> If lynch mafia or SK it is a dead draw, so the townie will vote for himself. If e.g. mafia votes for himself, SK lynches mafia (with 1/2 chance or so - SK will vote because expectancy is .5 draw, .5 win) the mafia lose. So neither the mafia or SK can afford to vote for himself. So the mafia and SK are revealed to each other. So they will shoot each other and the town may well win

Ferris Bueller is not in the game is he? What?

Better safe than sorry is probably true, but somehow a second vote being lethal just can't get into my head... Anyways waiting for Macros for response. The thought that mlaker might be the monopole did occur to me, but I couldn't say it yesterday being nominated and all.

And yes, I am looking the most suspicious right now, but if you must lynch me, give me a chance to speak first etc. This applies to any lynch. Hurrying into things just causes a loss of info.

[mole]

You posted the List yesterday... now you're analysing possible endgames to death... you wouldn't happen to be mith, would you?

[Fletcher]

3 problems with Wacky's post. Not necessarily suspicious problems but problems.

1, If there is no SK that post was worthless.
2, There's no such thing as a draw. If there are an even amount of townies and mafia, mafia win and if there's a mafia and an SK left with 2 townies the game isn't even close to being over.
3, I don't think mafia would be so stupid as to jump on a lynch and reveal themselves.

I don't know, just three things I noticed when I read his post and thought I'd point out to him.

[Wacky]

3 problems with Wacky's post. Not necessarily suspicious problems but problems.

1, If there is no SK that post was worthless.
2, There's no such thing as a draw. If there are an even amount of townies and mafia, mafia win and if there's a mafia and an SK left with 2 townies the game isn't even close to being over.
3, I don't think mafia would be so stupid as to jump on a lynch and reveal themselves.

I don't know, just three things I noticed when I read his post and thought I'd point out to him.

1. Well, yes. Its also useless as in 3, and if there aren't two mafia (I already said it was unlikely), and all kind of other situations. I already said it was very unlikely.
2. Okay... well what do you call it if everyone is dead? The situation I intended to explore was if theres a mafia and SK and 1 (NOT 2) townie left and the townie *delibrately* got himself lynched, the mafia and SK will shoot each other and everyone would be dead...

Anyway this is all irrelevant

cos the endgame is very very specific and unlikely.

I just thought it was interesting.

It was just something to think about while contemplating whether I am behaving suspiciously, etc. Can we please get back to that? Macros?

BTW I am not mith. He does that?

[mole]

He does it all the time. He's especially good at getting the mafia and SK to kill each other in the "1 Townie, 1 Mafia, 1 SK" scenario. :)

[mathcam]

Vote Count:

Umm...none.

Cam

[JereIC]

Macros must be having internet difficulties. Or a social life. Still, could we get him prodded?

[Wacky]

Unfortunately if a mafia member is a GF we would be stuffed. *prods macros*. Will that work? I mean, if he's not reading the thread how does he know he's prodded?

[Fletcher]

JereIC wants mathcam to E-mail him or something like that.

[Macros]

~awake due to prodding~
i submitted two inveistigations ech night, and when i found the monopole, i would become your ultimate cool bitch when they died, by pure co0incidence, my too investigations died on night 1.

[Fletcher]

Now what?

[Wacky]

If we have one confirmed innocent. And two people who claim to be masons, we have a high probability of win:

Lynch one of the 3 remaining:

A Lynch innocent:
1 Confirmed, 2 Masons, 1 Mafia, 1 SK:
Mafia and SK kill 1 or 2 masons (obvious choice*)
1 confirmed, 1 Mafia, 1 SK
(Already analysed, expectancy 1/3 = draw or 1/3 chance of win) Or vote no lynch as below, could be town win
1 Confirmed 1 Mason (now also confirmed), 1 Mafia, 1 SK
Vote no lynch. Mafia and SK get Prisoners Dilemma: 2 cooperate = draw, 1 cooperate, 1 Stab = cooperate loss, 2 stabs = town win. Town will win or at worst draw.
1 Confirmed, 2 Mafia, 1 innocent, 1 SK
SK kills “mason”, Mafia kills innocent
1 Confirmed, 1 obvious mafia, 1 SK
See above.
SK kills “mason”, Mafia kills SK.
1 Confirmed, 1 obvious mafia, 1 town
Town wins
B Lynch mafia
1 Confirmed, 2 Masons, 1 Mafia, 1 SK
As above
1 Confirmed, 2 Masons, 1 Innocent, 1 SK
SK kills mason.
1 Confirmed, 1 Mason (confirmed), 1 Innocent, 1 SK
Lynch innocent, SK win
Lynch SK, town win.
Win probability = ½ or higher.

That last one isn’t very likely - the game would have 4 evil roles and 2 neutrals. So the chance of win is pretty high.

Killing the other unconfirmed would just put yourself on the chopping block, te SK kills mason in case mafia, the Mafia kills mason to get rid of a very definitely confirmed mason.

I can’t see any flaws in this logic, so

I am a Proton. I am a suspended particle. I know that Coolbot targeted me N1 and that noone targeted me night 2. Strangely enough.

I also suggest Mikehart to reveal his other mason. If he can’t he’s obviously mafia or SK working alone so either way we’ve got something to go on.

Got that?

And FOS: Macros. Both died seems fishy - maybe he's scum and theres no experimental physicists for the dipole, or something... Just the whole dying thing seems sus.

[mikehart]

i

will not

endanger my mason twin but if he wishes to come foward he is more than welcome

[Fletcher]

I, for one, believe Macros. I think it is possible for both of those people to die. Maybe they both died because of Macros using both of them. And anyway, I thought we knew there were those scientists looking for the monopole because of CoolBot's roll.

Now I'm wondering if he's good or bad. I think it is possible that he is bad. I think that it is possible that the reason he did not talk much yesterday is because he didn't want to reveal his mafianess. But it is also very possible he is good like CoolBot.

[Macros]

its also possible i was away tuesday wed and thursday, and busy with games im running and stuff.......

[JereIC]

~awake due to prodding~
i submitted two inveistigations ech night, and when i found the monopole, i would become your ultimate cool bitch when they died, by pure co0incidence, my too investigations died on night 1.

WTH?

I'm the magnetic monopole

, and I'm very much alive. Coolbot's role mentions nothing about his targets dieing, which makes your claim all the more suspect.

FOS: Macros

for inaccurate statements, although there could be a good explanation, plus it looks like he may be pretty busy.

[Macros]

busy ness is over, i was gather shit together because school starts tomorrow.
i forget my exact role, i dont have the pm anymore. i know it involved searching for a monopole, and i cant submit choiuces anymore,
there was something about waiting for someone i investigated to die, i think that was inserted to make me try to get people lynched, unfortunately they died, spoiling the mods plan.
~shrug~

[mikehart]

i dont buy that
Fos that could easily become a vote: Macros

[mole]

FOS: mikehart

Fletcher, Wacky, myself, and JereIC all FOSed you yesterday. Now you're attacking Macros. That doesn't leave any living player who you could be masons with...