Mafiascum.net

↑ Draynth wrote:

↑ necargoface wrote:
I disagree aswell. First of all, an RV is far more likely to be a naked vote compared to a serious vote. A serious vote with no reasoning is dumb and scummy. An RV that has no reasoning is just an RV

Honest also said later that it was not actually an RV, which made him even scummier (as you just said would happen). This was NOT an RV, as I suspected, and had no reasoning. I am going to see if Mathilda can change my opinions on the Honest slot.

It doesn't matter whether you were right; there is still no way you could have known what his vote was supposed to represent.

Can I get your thoughts on Yuri?

↑ Mathilda wrote:
The problem with a policy lynch is that it is essentially a no fault lynch. This means that it's safe for scum. When challenged they can point to the policy and say that it was for the good of the game.

This seems like it could be true, but in practice you never make friends by suggesting a policy lynch like that. More importantly though, there is a good reason to lynch the way I'm suggesting. The fact is that town has a pretty abysmal level of accuracy according to newbie game statistics (at least last time I checked). It turns out that a lynching a random replacement into a newbie slot is more likely to hit scum than a typical day one lynch (which in turn is about as likely to be scum as a random player). This is one reason I'm not crazy about lynching Yuriko; I'm just not sure I buy that her behavior is strongly indicative of scum, even though I see where her detractors are coming from.

I think we should probably lynch gratuitous. The way ZS replaced out is profoundly scummy and gratuitous's replace in is pretty scummy as well. I've already talked about why I think the replace out is bad. Gratuitous replaced in, and immediately voted the most popular wagon while reiterating points that had already been made in the thread and making no other contribution. At the very least, this is not something that should escape scrutiny.

VOTE: gratuitous

@BBT: Do either of the other votes on the Yuriko wagon bother you? They both look like they were cast under suspicious circumstances to me.

Nope, I have no problem with either of the votes on Yuri.

I don't like your positioning around the Yuri wagon though. Like, 'yeah, I can see where you're all coming from but I just think Yuri is town'. If you can see where we are coming from; how are you coming to a different conclusion?

Mostly I just don't trust the sort of things we're talking about with Yuriko. Also, I don't see how you could think Dwlee's vote is ok. Yuriko voting him was pretty clearly not OMGUS, in fact, what he did was actually OMGUS. And even then, I find it highly suspect to push a vote on someone who has been attacked by most of the game because they did an OMGUS. Is Yuriko even allowed to vote anyone at this point?

I mean, come on. ZS says he's going to post a reads list tomorrow then completely flakes. How does that not reek of scum role dissatisfaction.

Because you know as well as I do that town flake all the time.

I should probably elaborate on the first sentence of my last post. Basically all evidence comes down to looking at some action and saying, how likely is this action as scum vs how likely as town. The fact is that the main thing that strikes me as scummy about yuriko was the point about attacking the 'RV' aspect of cargo's vote, which I don't consider super awful by itself. The other things she did make about as much sense as either alignment, so I see why scum would do them, but I don't really see why town wouldn't.

p-edit: Naturally, but context is important here.

When I first replaced in the ZS slot didn't look likely to flake. They had a reasonable amount of activity in the beginning and nothing about the circumstances seem like they should have been difficult for town ZS. But the slot offered little in the way of reads other than a weirdly vacillating opinion on Honest, then he flaked after he promised something concrete. That is by no means typical of a town flake.

You don't see Yuri's inconsistency when explaining her 'us' comment?

PEdit - Why not? I mean, the reasonable activity and their fairly comfortable status in the game makes them unlikely to flake as either alignment, no?

Huh, I only noticed that when you mentioned it just now. So you think two of us refers to scum, both of whom had not yet weighed in on the wagon? That's pretty interesting. Right now I'm watching kids so it'll be later today before I can really look into it.

As for the second point, no it isn't the same as either alignment. ZS did not seem uncomfortable making posts at first, nor did he express difficulty getting reads, but ultimately that seems like the most likely reason he replaced out. That would imply scum.

Nvm, looked at the post she made and it couldn't possibly mean the scum team due to the parenthetical aside.

Right, but she says 'us' and then implies later on that she isn't even talking about herself (despite adding a comment into the post as if she was talking about herself) but instead was talking about Axwell and Mark. When I asked where the us came from if she was talking about those two people she responded saying that she meant 'everyone', which again, doesn't make sense because some people were posting.

Hey story consistently changes and then she tries to blame it on bad English and makes an appeasing comment towards myself despite having nothing to base that comment on.

↑ YurikoJasmine wrote:Let's not hammer until the two of us get to say something (or get replaced)
That said,

Zero please speak for yourself. Who do you think is scum and why do you think there's so many votes on your head?

I assume this is the post you are talking about. Clearly she thinks that the two people in question are likely to be replaced (at least the way I read it). She couldn't be referring to herself, since there has been no point in time that she has looked likely to be replaced. My guess is that she is referring to Mark and Axwell and uses the phrase 'two of us' to mean two people out of an arbitrary group including herself (most likely everyone).

Unless I'm profoundly misinterpreting this post, I don't see how it could be a scumslip as you seem to imply. I also don't see how inconsistency in explaining a semantic error would be more likely from scum than town.

But the 'That said' comment implies she was talking about herself, no? Like, 'let me say something before we hammer, that said, (insert comment here)' looks like she was talking about giving herself the chance to talk and then she adds the comment on.

↑ Lowercase wrote:

↑ Mathilda wrote:
The problem with a policy lynch is that it is essentially a no fault lynch. This means that it's safe for scum. When challenged they can point to the policy and say that it was for the good of the game.

This seems like it could be true, but in practice you never make friends by suggesting a policy lynch like that. More importantly though, there is a good reason to lynch the way I'm suggesting. The fact is that town has a pretty abysmal level of accuracy according to newbie game statistics (at least last time I checked). It turns out that a lynching a random replacement into a newbie slot is more likely to hit scum than a typical day one lynch (which in turn is about as likely to be scum as a random player). This is one reason I'm not crazy about lynching Yuriko; I'm just not sure I buy that her behavior is strongly indicative of scum, even though I see where her detractors are coming from.

I think we should probably lynch gratuitous. The way ZS replaced out is profoundly scummy and gratuitous's replace in is pretty scummy as well. I've already talked about why I think the replace out is bad. Gratuitous replaced in, and immediately voted the most popular wagon while reiterating points that had already been made in the thread and making no other contribution. At the very least, this is not something that should escape scrutiny.

VOTE: gratuitous

Actually I specifically typed out my two main points (the first two) because I hadn't remembered seeing anyone make either of those points. I noted in the third that I agreed with previous points.

Heck, by the logic you're using, why don't we lynch you for replacing in as well. That's just a dumb angle in my opinion and from my exp on my old site.

↑ BlueBloodedToffee wrote:I don't like your positioning around the Yuri wagon though. Like, 'yeah, I can see where you're all coming from but I just think Yuri is town'. If you can see where we are coming from; how are you coming to a different conclusion?

QFE

I'm with Lowercase and Yuriko about this "two of us" business. I never read that as anything other than a comment about the two people that hadn't confirmed by that point. I'll agree that Yuriko has been posting in a suspicious manner recently. I'll take a look at that in a bit but first I have to update my notes because I'm losing track of the replacements.

I concur that the "us" thing is a minor/negligible issue, but there is more than enough reasoning outside of it for Yuriko to be lynched

@Gratuitous: You make two points against Yuriko. The first one boils down to calling Yuriko's reason for voting cargo flimsy, which I pointed out myself. You also mention the timing which is admittedly new, but I don't really see how it is relevant.

BBT draws attention to post 99 just before voting Yuriko, but I guess you're right that these things aren't explicitly mentioned.

I'll grant that I was wrong about your post being a reiteration, but my fundamental issue is that you immediately take the easiest stance available. I still don't even know what you think about anyone other than Yuriko.

As for your second point, I was mainly criticizing the manner in which ZS replaced out; that's why I'm not suggesting we lynch Mathilda or Draynth. The reasons someone replaced out are just as valid for getting a read as anything else. People like to say things like 'replacing out is null' and the like, but that's essentially the same as saying 'voting is null.' The context is key.

p-edit: Suppose we don't lynch Yuriko. Who should we lynch?

Oh sorry, cargo was the other replace.

↑ YurikoJasmine wrote:

@direfire:

because he totally ignored my case on him

I'm not sure that this answers my question:

↑ Dierfire wrote:

↑ YurikoJasmine wrote:Wtf did he just called my vote OMGUS why is there not more votes on him

I'm not convinced that DWL calling your vote OMGUS is a sign that he is Mafia. Could you elaborate?

Is this your full case here?

↑ YurikoJasmine wrote:I barely realized that mansonP has already been replaced. his replacement came in, drop a word and then going away. he's cherry-picking people to comment on, saying i'm not of use and conveniently commented on necargo's "RV" which was already much discussed, while not adding anything to it. Even worse, he's gone. As if I would need more reasons to vote him.

vote: dwlee

p.s. it's really ironic that he complained about people not posting while he himself has disappeared

I'd like to ask you to provide your impressions of the other players that recently replaced: Mathilda (replacing Honest), Lowercase (replacing Axwell), and Gratuitous (replacing Zero) and tell me why DWL's entrance was worse.

↑ Lowercase wrote:

@Gratuitous: You make two points against Yuriko. The first one boils down to calling Yuriko's reason for voting cargo flimsy, which I pointed out myself. You also mention the timing which is admittedly new, but I don't really see how it is relevant.

BBT draws attention to post 99 just before voting Yuriko, but I guess you're right that these things aren't explicitly mentioned.

I'll grant that I was wrong about your post being a reiteration, but my fundamental issue is that you immediately take the easiest stance available. I still don't even know what you think about anyone other than Yuriko.

As for your second point, I was mainly criticizing the manner in which ZS replaced out; that's why I'm not suggesting we lynch Mathilda or Draynth. The reasons someone replaced out are just as valid for getting a read as anything else. People like to say things like 'replacing out is null' and the like, but that's essentially the same as saying 'voting is null.' The context is key.

p-edit: Suppose we don't lynch Yuriko. Who should we lynch?

The timing is relevant because it would have been far more towny to immediately lead with the vote, instead of waiting for others to chime in with agreeing sentiments before placing it. That screams of running a possible wagon up the flagpole to see if would be accepted before committing to it.

As for the the replacement, I don't know why ZS replaced out either, but I do have the advantage of knowing what ZS's (and now my) rolecard is, and that ZS/I am town. You're basically saying because ZS posted a bit before asking for replacement, it makes this slot far scummier than the ones who either didn't post, or just through up a random vote before asking for replacement... That's just weak.

Yes when you radically simplify and mischaracterize my point, it does come off as rather weak. That doesn't really matter though because you can't make excuses for you previous slot holder and I don't care if you try to.

The more important thing is the question. Who would you consider lynching if Yuriko was suddenly an impossibility. Is she your only read? Who do you like for town?

↑ Lowercase wrote:

↑ Mathilda wrote:
The problem with a policy lynch is that it is essentially a no fault lynch. This means that it's safe for scum. When challenged they can point to the policy and say that it was for the good of the game.

This seems like it could be true, but in practice you never make friends by suggesting a policy lynch like that. More importantly though, there is a good reason to lynch the way I'm suggesting. The fact is that town has a pretty abysmal level of accuracy according to newbie game statistics (at least last time I checked).

It turns out that a lynching a random replacement into a newbie slot is more likely to hit scum than a typical day one lynch

(my bold)

This is possible, I certainly don't know myself, but let's examine the reasons why this would be the case.

A newbie can flake out for many reasons but let's stick to the ones that are relevant. Off the top of my head I could imagine them as:

1) They get bored
2) They find it all too confusing
3) Things start going badly for them and they give up before because they have lost any sense of reward from playing

Please add more reasons if you can think of them. There are two cases, the newbie is either town or they are scum.

1) A Vanilla Townie will be more likely to get bored than scum because they don't feel that their role is important and they do not have a night action
2) It doesn't matter to scum if they find the process of scum-hunting too confusing because they don't actually want it to be successful. Whereas that's entirely what the townie newbie needs to do, especially a VT. Town is more likely to quit because they are confused.
3) Scum are more likely to give up if things are going badly for them because faking sincerity is difficult over very long periods and it can be extremely frustrating when everyone thinks that you're scum and you have no idea how they came to that conclusion. On the other hand town power roles are also likely to give up if they think they're about to be lynched for something arbitrary and this could lose the game. It is less likely that town will quit because they are not winning than scum though.

The next question then, is which of the three causes happens most frequently. I don't know but this analysis does tell me that a policy lynch for replacements may only marginally hit scum more often than town at best because of scenario 3. But on the other hand if we combine it with knowledge of how the replacement is acting and what they are saying then it can be yet one more piece of evidence that we can use.

tl,dr: policy lynch may possibly have a marginal improvement on chance and at best should only be taken as a recommendation

I meant "the two people (mark and axel) out of us (everyone)" you genius. As if I would every make such stupid mistake to scum-claim myself.

What change of story are you talking about