Pixar Mafia! (#102) Duh-duh-duh-done!

[Fuldu]

I still think the numbers will suggest option 2 is better odds for the town, especially on the off chance of two remaining scum, and would add that with 3 to lynch, the second option is practically a group decision as well.

Lemme see... All numbers assume completely random choices on the part of all players, not reasonable, but the only way I can think to model it, I'm also assuming an initial GGVB distribution, that the vig isn't one-shot, and that the two townies are completely vanilla:

No-lynch/no-vig:
66% -

G

GVB

Assuming equiprobable lynches the next day, there's a 33% of win, 33% of lose, and 33% of VB going into night. How is this usually handled? Do they both end up dead? I'm going to call it a scum win.

33% - GG

V

B

Assuming equiprobable lynches the next day, there's a 33% of win and 66% of lose.

So, unless vig vs. scum isn't an outright scum win, the vig doesn't actually do us any good if we no lynch today, and we have an expected win of 33%.

No-lynch/vig-kill is slightly better, because it gives the vig a 33% chance of pulling out a win tonight, plus the 11% of the time that the vig and scum kill the same player, you've still got situation A above, for another 33% win. Aggregate likelihood of winning, ~37%

Lynch:
25% GG

V

B, which is a 0% win if the lynch actually goes through, but a 66% win if we believe the claim and lynch somebody else. (33% of the lynch being right, plus 50% chance of vig getting scum the other 66% of the time)
50%

G

GVB, which is a 50% chance of a win (and a 25% chance of being left with VB, which, again, I'm going to call a scum win).
25% GGV

B

, 100% win

So, the aggregate with a lynch today followed by a vig kill tonight is 66%, which clearly towers over the other two options. Of course, I don't have any good information on which to base a choice.

[shadyforce]

We lynch today. I'll know who to lynch very shortly. And We'll have 100% chance of winning.

[Flying Dutchman]

Tell me, Shady, why don't you know who to lynch, but will you soon?

[shadyforce]

I'll tell all very soon. In the mean time, it's very important we keep posting, so if your online, reply to this asap.

[Fuldu]

Well, it's nice to see that strikethrough UBB code doesn't work on this board.

[shadyforce]

And with that post, my uber plan falls into place.

[shadyforce]

Ok, if we lynch Fletcher tonight, the town will win.

Vote: Fletcher

It works better if I don't tell you why.

[Flying Dutchman]

Ok, if we lynch Fletcher tonight, the town will win.

Lynching tonight!?

I suppose it's a typo, but I still don't plan to follow you blindly, if you're scum you can lure is into losing........

[shadyforce]

Yes, lynch tonight. And following me blindly will win the game for town, and that includes (and there is a chance) if you are town. Can't you trust me just this once? Wait, yeah, you won't lynch yourself. Lol, of course you'd object. Let's hear from the other 2. Cam has been surprisingly quiet. Speak up Cam. Yuo too fuldu. Let's hear what you have to say about this.

And FD, I strongly recommend role claiming, as it will definitely decide your fate tonight.

[Fuldu]

I'd point out that Fletcher was actually killed last night, so I don't imagine there's much chance we'll lynch him today. However, it looks like you meant Flying Dutchman. You might want to clarify that/fix your vote. Also, if you're recommending endgame action on blind trust, you might not want to include stupid errors in your post.

[JereIC]

I'm 95% certain I'm coming down with a flu, so I may be a little flakier than normal. Curse you, mother nature!

Va-va-vote count!

1

No Lynch

Mathcam
3

Not voting, for legitimate targets at least:

Flying Dutchman, Fuldu, shadyforce

Three to lynch.

[Flying Dutchman]

You mean me, like F0uldu suggests, or Fuldu, can you clarify that!?

Well, I'm not planning to claim to let you go on with your plan, following players blindly is not what I do in end-game situations like this............

And you keep going on with "lynching tonight", if I read it correctly, you're going to lynch me tonight, all alone, without a day, without a mob!?

[shadyforce]

Yeah, I meant the other way about.

*role claims*

I am 'squishy' from Finding Nemo. I am one of those jellyfish thingies, and I am a

role-blocker

!

Yes, I did indeed block Fletcher, and provent that night kill. And given the current situation, I think a role blocker can come in useful.

So we have 2 townies, and 2 killers (most likely both evil). Worst case scenario, to win this game we must kill one evil tonight (P=2/3), block the other evil tonight (P=1/2) and lynch that evil tomorrow (P=1/2). Give or take some bias based on information gathered thus far, this gives us probability of winning at 1/6. Not bad considering (WCS) we have 2 (seperate) evil and 2 townies. A role blocker really makes a difference.

However, I promised you 100% certainty and that you shall get. There is a way to ensure the town will win. That way is to have another confirmed innocent (besides myself). How do we get that, you ask? Well, that comes from the simple fact that

Fletcher wasn't the only person I blocked last night

. And since we still had a kill, that means

the person I blocked is innocent

.

Congratulations, Mathcam, you are now confirmed innocent. Which leaves us Flying Dutchman and Fuldu. We lynch one today, I block the other tonight and then lynch them tomorrow.

Game over. Town wins. No way out for scum.

The reason for me stalling, (it wasn't just for the sake of being cryptic), is that I can only block someone if I (twice) sandwich their posts with mine. I didn't want to announce that until I completed that task, in case they stopped posting to provent me blocking them.

Now that I have sandwiched both Fuldu and Flying Dutchman, and can now block either of them tonight, it is safe to reveal my plan.

So we have a choice of either one to lynch. It doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things, bit if indeed one of you are pro-town, then we might as well win with 3 townies left instead of 2, in which case, I urge you to come forward, announce your role and vote for the other guy.

Unvote: Fletcher

So... who wants to role-claim?

[Fuldu]

No, that's not right, shadyforce. We lacked a SK kill last night which, to me, means that if you're telling the truth, mathcam is the SK. I had figured you were a role-blocker, since it was clear one was necessary last night (or a doctor, but one of those had already died), but

you blocked evil, not good

. Either you're lying or mathcam's scum.

[shadyforce]

Fletcher, Hades, mafia, shot

Who killed Fletcher? It sure as hell wasn't himself. It must have been the serial killer.

I blocked evil (Fletcher) AND good (Mathcam) and since the serial killer's kill still happened, Mathcam is NOT the Serial Killer.

[Fuldu]

Screw it. I'm Woody, a vigilante. I shot Fletcher last night. Since he wasn't also hacked to bits, the SK didn't get a chance to kill last night, which means, again, that if you're telling the truth, mathcam is the SK.

Of course, this also means that the two townies have come out before the one or two scum. It further means that I don't think there's any chance we'll get the three votes necessary to lynch.

[shadyforce]

Well, I must say, if you are scum, you've done a damn good job trying to ruin the plan. I'll have to rethink...

Hang on, that is true. The serial killer kills by being hacked to bits. Are you a one shot vig? How come you never killed before?

[shadyforce]

Mathcam: What do you have to say about all this?

[Fuldu]

At two kills a night, killing at random was going to make things worse a lot faster. I waited until I had a target I was confident of (note that I was the only one (other than PBuG) voting Fletcher over PBuG the previous day)), although I had considered Fletcher the previous night and, in retrospect, wish I had gone ahead with it. I suggested testing a hider with a vig in a different game (Comedy Mafia on GL) and was roundly shouted down and eventually lynched, so I decided it would be best not to do it here.

In any event, we should get role-claims from the other two players before we go any further.

[shadyforce]

Yes, let's see what they have to say. I'm still not believing you fully, but I'm very curious.

[mathcam]

Sorry, sorry, sorry. I've been totally engrossed by Whack-a-Mole, even to the point of disregarding my mafia games. Oops.

I'm happy to claim, but I'm not sure there's too much of a point. It's possible keeping my role secret could negatively affect the mafia's chances of winning.

As much as I do like being proclaimed certainly innocent, I must admit there's a little bit of suspicion left on shadyforce. On the other hand, the argument's pretty convincing and his actions from yesterday seem to align with his claimed previous night choices...so if I had to make a call, I'd say shady was probably good.

Cam

[Flying Dutchman]

Well, I know I'm pro-town, and Shady and Fuldu sound convincing, but that would mean we can't have 2 evil left.................

Wait a minute: Wasn't PBuG the Serial Killer? "hider/blood donor" is more than what he claimed (He just explained the hiding part), and we had no SK kill tonight! That could explain everything, and a 3-scum team seems likely, what would explain why we haven't won yet..............

Vote: Mathcam

Die, scum!

[Fuldu]

Drat, I was waiting to post to give shady an opportunity to sandwich mathcam, but that won't work now. Please keep trying, by the way, shadyforce. I'm not convinced he's scum, but we ought to at least have that avenue open.

I think blood donor just covered the part of PBuG's role where he dies instead of the person he hides with if they're targeted. JereIC clarified the pro/anti-town status of Hopper and Randall. I'd appreciate it if he'd do the same for PBuG.

shadyforce, you also sandwiched Flying Dutchman yesterday. Is there a reason you didn't block him as well?

I still want role-claims from the other two players. I'm trying to determine if there are reasonable alternate explanations for the fact that I'm the only one that killed last night, other than shadyforce's.

[shadyforce]

Please both of you remove your votes. We have much to discuss. I'd still like a claim from Flying Dutchman, and Mathcam. And Mathcam, if you'd be so kind as you voluntarily get sandwiched by 2 of my posts, then I'd appreciate it.

[Flying Dutchman]

OK.

I'm Nemo. I knew my father was in the game, and I was told he was able to "protect me from some harm at night". I realised afterwards this probably means an attempt on his life is made when I'm targeted by a killer.