Newbie 1875 | D4

[teacher]

(And thank you.....)

[Invisibility]

if teacher is scum i will be so upset

[Invisibility]

i can get behind an Espeonage wagon
VOTE: Espeonage

[xRECKONERx]

Deadline for D1 is (expired on 2018-07-06 00:00:00).

Just to avoid confusion, can you edit 4 too? Also, for future ISO purposes, can I request 0 show the slot history (e.g., Elephant

pickle

; Stun

Daskter

RatedX

). Not a big deal, but I find it helpful. Thanks!

Not gonna bother for slots that never had any posts, but I will do it for the ones that showed up.

[Irrelephant11]

Ok this is screwed, plat had a mature response to my vote which bleeds town.

So eh.

I still don't get the invis reads part her talking like town meta. Which I kinda still hate as reasoning.

unvote

I'm completely unimpressed with your play here. While I understand IC's are not obligated to play any specific way, it's generally assumed IC's will lead, especially D1. Come on, talk setup, or explain why lurking is so terrible, or at least move your vote to another player. Scumreading you for lack of effort here, as well as for being unwilling to find and vote your new top scumread - reads like you don't want to give the town any associational data.

Please make a case on someone. Even a hard towncase.

multiple players think he is town for [wanting to help newbies]

This is not the reason behind the townreads of my slot, and I think you know that.

The helpfulness is accurate (look at the username), though Im not sure how helpful it is. It is also NAI, as I would do the same as scum.

But what the townreads were actually for was trying to drive discussion and get town active out of RVS. TBH, your suggesting otherwise seems like kind-of angle-shooty shade.

I agree that I oversimplified. A lot of players, though, referenced 45 as a helpful towny post. While it may have inspired some players to move out of RVS just out of effort (which does deserve a townlean and is the way you are interpreting it), the actual content was mostly "here's how mafiascum plays mafia" which doesn't move anyone out of RVS in any particular

direction

. Everyone was just "huh, guess RVS is over?" because the content was just... helping newbies. I don't think I'm misrepresenting there, and I want to be sure players (newbies especially) don't simply decide you're town because you have the most words/"helpful" posts (even though I also don't think you're scum for having the most words/"helpful" posts).

i can get behind an Espeonage wagon
VOTE: Espeonage

This vote is bad

[Irrelephant11]

Nexus I need more from you. What do you think of teacher, or of me?

[Irrelephant11]

So, the only way Xander is scum is if his partner is flaky or clueless about being scum.

teacher can be town for today, unless Process of Elimination says he has to be scum

I take back what I just said about invisibility's most recent vote - since xander had unvoted it's not actually that bad.

@ALL TOWNIES: Please share some thoughts! teacher just wrote a whole bunch of stuff - did you think it was good, or just a way of hiding his scumminess? I've written some stuff, too - do I seem like town?
It's VERY IMPORTANT that town players write their thoughts and ask probing questions as much as possible. The way the game is currently moving, scum can just post next-to-nothing and we'll never catch them, because they look just like the townies who are posting next to nothing.

Don't be afraid of posting something that might come across as dumb! That will actually usually help the rest of us know you're town, because scum usually censor themselves from saying dumb things (they have more information than the rest of us, so they know just what to say). So even simple questions, or ideas that you end up changing your mind on later are HELPFUL. As an example, look at some of the stuff I've said: "Espeonage's vote was opportunistic" - I wasn't sure I completely believed this when I said it, but Espeonage has since unvoted and gotten quiet. Even though my original thought was shaky, by presenting it I made her nervous. This makes me think maybe she's scum.

Also, don't be afraid to die if you're town! As long as you've posted a lot of stuff, your death will help us figure out who wanted you dead, and why, and we can catch scum that way.

We can DO this just get involved!

[Nexus]

Nexus I need more from you. What do you think of teacher, or of me?

Sorry man I wrote my posts whilst I was having a shit.

I think that Teacher and you are both town but if you could write less words that'd be good. I'm currently leaning plat/espe scum team.

[stungun0404]

This is why I found Plat’s repeated questioning of my vote (58, 72, 76, 90, 106, 107, 146, 149) scummy. Saying the same thing THIS many times is like posting a no trespassing sign – a warning to the NEXT person to vote Plat that they will be scumread for doing so (or OMGUS-in-advance). Moreover, the claim in 106 isn’t all that credible. I have never seen anybody get lynched quick D1 in a newb game, and it certainly wasn’t going to happen in that dead thread. In contrast, the implicit threat posed by this defensiveness could have been quite effective at killing a wagon, especially in a dead game with newbs who may be more afraid of being lynched than the average town.

• Its effectiveness is increased by Elephant questioning and voting Esp for providing that third vote in 126. To me, ESP’s vote does not seem disingenuous at all – he was the one that originally scummed Plat, and it came too spread out in time from mine to be a momentum wagon. But I nonetheless indented this because it’s a weaker, third-party associational point made preflips.

Start finding them Mafiosos.

This post, believe it or not, is part of my scumread. Its weak as Smirnoff Ice, but this sentence and word choice struck me as forced and LAMISTy. To be very clear, this is a very very minor part of my case. I actually included it primarily for the gameplay point for newbs: When making a case, do not include crap like this even if moves you. In general, unlike this wall, you don’t want to include every last point because that makes it too easy for scum to take your weakest two points, refute them, and avoid the noose. But there we are.

the thought pattern pursued by teacher here is a clear towntell to me, personally. specifically, the theory of OMGUS’ing in advance—i could never see a scum player taking a case like that opportunistically and rather opting to keep mum about that if they observe it and push forward a case for the ‘present’ about plat being scum. not at all a scum train-of-thought.

I think teacher is definitely

town

—as the way he is pushing his case forward, especially, is alignment-indicative. I feel he is giving special consideration to the innermost thoughts that plat might be holding considering their alignment, which is inherently a town train-of-thought to putsue, so he’s about as close to locktown as I can get this early on in a game. It’s not just that, but also his CLEAR focus on scumhunting AND townhunting, working the theoretical aspects of the game to full advantage, and driving the game forward. this has me thinking he cannot possibly be anything but town. I’d be sincerely shocked if he was scum.

irrelephant appears to be

town

to me as well; the way you are pushing the game forward gives off frustrated town vibes, which pretty clearly suggests town to me.

@xander and @isolato: would like more alignment-indicative content from both of you.

my current

townpile

(these players i can make a solid case for being town): teacher, invisibility, irrelephant
nulltown (not much content to attribute a read to, but leaning towards town)/slight townlean: xander (his confusion, if anything i’ve read so far, seems like newbtown)
null (could be scum, but also could be town; for these i am conflicted between the 2, in large part due to the lack of alignment-indicative posts): isolato, nexus
nullscum/slight scum lean: espeonage
clear scumlean: platfleece (i could be this slot being

scum

with an experienced player, OR with a newbie player on the same team with them, but I am also reluctant to vote them because they would be at L-1 and we need more substance out of the other players in this day phase before someone can swoop in and hammer).

I stand by my place on the espeonage wagon at the moment, given the circumstances.

[teacher]

just for what its worth, my informal VC has Plat at L-3 not L-2 right now, because ESP unvoted. (Winged and nexus are the same slot; nobody else has gotten on).

[Irrelephant11]

I think that Teacher and you are both town but if you could write less words that'd be good.

lol you're not getting that from teach and you're only getting it from me when you write more words.

I'm surprised you think plat & espe are aligned. What makes you think scum-espe would L-2 scum-plat?

[Nexus]

Nice place to be on the wagon.

[Irrelephant11]

the thought pattern pursued by teacher here is a clear towntell to me, personally. specifically, the theory of OMGUS’ing in advance—i could never see a scum player taking a case like that opportunistically and rather opting to keep mum about that if they observe it and push forward a case for the ‘present’ about plat being scum. not at all a scum train-of-thought.

I think teacher is definitely town

This is a fantastic point and I'm gonna sheep it. You and teacher are both town for this for sure

@nexus that's a good point, actually, especially in light of how quickly espeonage dropped it when platfleece responded

Plat, how likely do you think it is that espeonage is scum?

[Xander]

UNVOTE: espeonage

Ummmm.....You werent voting Espeonage. And you've never mentioned them otherwise in your ISO. What did you mean to do here, and what do you think of their slot?

You are right I voted for Wingedcat, I totally got confused because it was a silly vote based on my favorite pokemon eeveelution.

First, and most importantly, I have learned one thing in my fiveish games on site – my reads stink.

This is the part of the most here that rises my eyebrow. He spends a whole lot of time talking about how his reads have been wrong, how he could probably be wrong here. It seems like he is setting it up so that if people follow up on the plat bandwagon he has plausible deniability. That does strike me particularly as something an innocent person would do.

Also I don't particularly follow your logic on Plat. I clicked the links that you provided to her posts (why didn't you quote them? why make it harder for us to follow your trail?) and none of them seemed to be pushing at you hard. in fact the first quote he says :

I'm leaning town on teacher for the big discussion push post, but I would like to know his reasoning for voting me as soon as winged did.

In fact plat seems to townread you a lot, but you say he is questioning you.

With all of that out of the way, I will end as I started – The odds say Im wrong, and that Plat is town. .

I agree with you, the logic you provided doesn't really lead me towards Plat. Also your theory about OMGUS in advance completely went over my head.

[Irrelephant11]

Xander it’s common for people to link posts rather than quote them to save space. Especially for those of us playing multiple games at once, long posts with lots of quotes can be an eyesore we’d rather skim than read.

I agree that teacher setting himself up to be wrong is kind icky, but I’ve played with teacher as town before and I don’t think this is that unusual for him. I could be wrong of course

[teacher]

I could be wrong of course

But thanks. And I agree its a bit of an odd tick of mine to emphasize how I could be wrong. But facts are facts, and the fact is that whomever we lynch is statistically likely (75%) to be town, and -- according to one outdated study of actual played games -- historically likely (90%) to be town. We just have to try for the lightning shot.

[teacher]

you say he is questioning you.

Perhaps I too oversimplified. He TRs me for other reasons, but scums my vote/timing. 107 summarizes this pretty well:

He still has scummy points for the timing though, just not enough to flip my read of him to scum. So if he was 50% Town to me, he's now 25% Town.

But as to your bottom line point - that you're not convinced - fair enough. Then who do you think is scummiest? Why did you unvote ESP (I know you mistakenly thought you had voted her, but you still must have had something convince you she was not the best place to vote)?

[teacher]

I take back what I just said about invisibility's most recent vote - since xander had unvoted it's not actually that bad.

How does the fact that Xander unvoted a non-existent vote affect this thought-process?

[teacher]

And, finally, @Mod may we have an isolato Prod

? Thanks again for the extension and for dealing with all of this.

[Irrelephant11]

Yeah thanks Reck

Glad you caught the joke

I thought invisibility was the third vote. I’m happier with it knowing it’s the second

[Irrelephant11]

If we’re looking for something to talk about, has anyone here heard of/does anyone have thoughts about the D1 tracker claim strategy?

[Xander]

I've seen that, but I don't completely understand it. Can you explain it to me like i'm five?

[Irrelephant11]

Sure! This setup has 9 possible Power Role combinations. Three of them have a tracker: B1, B2, and C3. There's a 33% chance we have a tracker, and if, say, YOU are the tracker, then you would know we're in one of those three setup combinations.

If we are in C3, claiming tracker on D1 is helpful and completely safe, as the anonymous doctor can protect the tracker and scum won't counterclaim (at least not without ensuring we lynch them by D2).
If we are in B2, claiming tracker is still somewhat helpful and completely safe, as the anonymous jailkeeper can protect the tracker and scum still won't counterclaim. This would roleblock the tracker, but since the tracker's information is not guaranteed to be helpful (a "guilty" could be a town PR, an "innocent" could be the wrong scum partner), it can be more helpful to have the confirmed tracker still alive.
If we are in B1, claiming tracker is pretty much the same as in B2, because

scum know we're in column B, but don't know if there's a jailkeeper or not

, meaning if they try to shoot the claimed tracker they might fail, leaving us with more townies alive and the jailkeeper confirmed whenever they decide to claim. So they're more likely to not shoot the tracker, leaving us with a confirmed tracker who also has a result.

Of course, B1 and B2 are a little WIFOM-y, but tracker doesn't know if we're in B or C, so their decision is pretty much the same regardless.

All of that said, there's only a 33% chance there's a tracker this game, and if we're in column B it's a little more complicated than if we're in column C. So it's not a guaranteed game-breaking strategy, it's just something to discuss.

[Xander]

Wouldn't a cop claim strategy more effective as we then have a 33% chance of having someone who can make direct investigations? It seems the way the numbers break down, there is a 33% chance there is a tracker or a cop and in that really a third of a chance it would be a good idea to claim. I mean the jailkeeper would be able to protect the trackers but then the tracker/cop would be effectively neutralized and allow the mafia to go hunting for the jailkeeper using their rolecop.

So really, I think it seems like there is a 1 in 9 chance that roleclaiming is a good idea.

[xRECKONERx]

teacher
stungun0404 (1): platfleece
isolato:
Irrelephant11:
platfleece (2): Nexus, teacher
Xander (1): Irrelephant11
Nexus:
Invisibility (1): isolato
Espeonage (2): stungun0404, Invisibility


Prodding isolato.