Open 798 | PYPX/Y+I/M | Mafia PT (over)

[Hoopla]

all your possible claim options carry risk.

cop & doc should be top NK's, so a phase after you claim it, people will wonder why you're still alive.

VT claim is problematic if anyone below you claims they went for cop. but planning ahead, we should consider killing uncrowned N2 and hope for a menalque execution today. keeping some or all of the dunnstral/skitter/davesaz bracket in tact disguises a VT claim, as the town in a massclaim situation would know the lying scum would have to be within you + those players & lilith.

i think we should be aiming to eliminate the uncrowned/infinity/petapan/menalque part of the playerlist first for that reason (keeping the VT-claim PoE pool wide if someone else went for cop).

also, i suspect the N3 vig is in the top few players, so we could get a double-kill N3 with a bit of luck.

[Something_Smart]

I'm trying to figure out how Dunnstral knew Menalque was blocked. My best guess is he's rolecop, rolecopped lilith, and inferred from her opening post that she jailed Menalque?

But once lilith claims (which she should do asap, I think) I would expect that people will be sufficiently confused as to demand an explanation from Dunnstral.

[Something_Smart]

Lilith I'm pretty sure you should just claim here

What are your thoughts on it?

[lilith2013]

I think some people picked up on it, I can soft harder first? idk

Mena already raised that if he was JKed he could also have been the target, so I have to figure out what my explanation is for believing that he’s not the target

[Hoopla]

I'm trying to figure out how Dunnstral knew Menalque was blocked. My best guess is he's rolecop, rolecopped lilith, and inferred from her opening post that she jailed Menalque?

But once lilith claims (which she should do asap, I think) I would expect that people will be sufficiently confused as to demand an explanation from Dunnstral.

dunnstral could have bid for JK and got VT, which is another way he'd know lilith is JK/tracker.

[Hoopla]

I think some people picked up on it, I can soft harder first? idk

Mena already raised that if he was JKed he could also have been the target, so I have to figure out what my explanation is for believing that he’s not the target

he has raised he may have been the NK, but if you out your result saying you're like 70% sure he's the killer, it doesn't really matter what you think about the result. it's what everyone else thinks about it. i think there some people who would be more confident than 70%.

but yeah, trying to provide a little explanation for your town motivation would be wise.

i think talking about choosing someone low in the list would be a good talking point (so you're not blocking town power, but also choosing a section of the playerlist which is likelier to make the kill).

^i think most players would expect scum to NK a player high in the draft who is likely power. so menalque being scum is the more likely explanation.

[Hoopla]

counterpoint:

sometimes cops with guilties try and get their guilty executed without claiming. given he has 5 votes already, there's a chance menalque could be executed without lilith having to out herself. is there an argument to hold out a bit longer?

[Something_Smart]

dunnstral could have bid for JK and got VT, which is another way he'd know lilith is JK/tracker.

True!

That actually seems a lot more likely in retrospect.

[Something_Smart]

counterpoint:

sometimes cops with guilties try and get their guilty executed without claiming. given he has 5 votes already, there's a chance menalque could be executed without lilith having to out herself. is there an argument to hold out a bit longer?

Of course there's an argument. But we don't necessarily want lilith to do what would be the best for town if she were town; we want her to do what will make her look the towniest, and I'm pretty sure outing it now would look townier than sitting on it given we know Menalque's flipping town.

She does probably need a particular reason to out, but I can think of three easy ones, any of which would be believable:
- To push the guilty and say "hey guys, I'm pretty sure I caught scum here"
- To push against the guilty and say "hey guys, I might have gotten a guilty but we should probably slow down because it could have been a save"
- To demand explanation from Dunnstral and say "yeah I did block Menalque, how in the hell did you know that?"

[Hoopla]

yes, i agree that outing it now would probably look the most townie, and at the end of the day, that's what we're going for.

[lilith2013]

is the goal to push #1?

[Something_Smart]

I think it's likely Menalque gets executed no matter which of the three you use. You don't have to push it hard if you don't want to.

[Hoopla]

yeah, just say what you feel is natural for a town-you to say.

[lilith2013]

that’s kind of the problem, I can’t remember how town!me thinks when I’m scum

[Something_Smart]

What you did seems pretty fine.

[Hoopla]

yep, looks good.

[Hoopla]

i'm strategically lurking at the moment, cause i don't have heaps of time to focus. so i'm just going to hang out here for now.

[the worst]

are you having a good day?

[lilith2013]

no but I hope everyone else is!

[the worst]

i hope it gets better

[Something_Smart]

I agree. I also don't see any way it's a fakeclaim from Lilith.

this feels like a soft

possibly dave also went for JK and turned out VT?

if that's the case and there are a lot of VT's high up then I think I can be a lot safer in claiming VT

[Hoopla]

i don't think that's necessarily a soft. it could be he thinks it's more that whoever is first in the draft is kinda bound by their role (which is fairly true).

but it would be great if both dunnstral/davesaz were VT. gives your VT claim a lot of cover.

[Something_Smart]

I think it's likely Menalque gets executed no matter which of the three you use.

The best-laid plans of mice and men...

[Hoopla]

i think menalque probably dodges the noose today.

but if we don't NK skitter/menalque who are the architects of the current narrative dominating the day, i suspect attention will turn back to menalque tomorrow, and people won't have the willpower to resist the juicy mechanical-pseudo-guilty on offer.

[Hoopla]

nice job team.

that day kinda fizzled out towards the end. i definitely stopped putting in effort, so i may be a elimination candidate tomorrow. hoping to try a bit harder upon the rising of a new day.