Posted: Thu Jan 06, 2022 9:26 pm
Pagetopping this.In post 173, mastina wrote:Well about that.In post 143, Greeting wrote:I didn't mean technicalities, I meant the method itself. Some players submitted town preference, some submitted scum preference. Some townies might have submitted scum preference. What if scums lie about scum preference and those townies who submitted scum preference didn't lie and simply didn't get it? This is what I'm sceptical about.
If Enchant was serious about submitting scum preference, then I'm pretty sure that if the mod gave everyone their stated preference?
We have three scum who submitted scum preference and then either refused to state their alignment preference (Cheeky, Meg) or lied about it and said they had town preference. (Technically, they could lie and say 'no preference', but I've reason to believe that everyone who claimed 'No Preference' is actually town here, just off of who the names claiming no preference are. I don't think scum truthfully claimed no preference given Enchant, and I don't think scum lied about it being no preference given who the names are and basic psychology in mafia play in that mafia would be afraid to claim 'no preference' if they thought that claiming no preference would make them more likely to be seen as a scum candidate.)
Between the players having stated town and the player refusing to state a preference, we have 9/13 players.Spoiler: Notes
So what this tells me:
Talyand Titus are town;
Galron isprobablytown.
If Enchant is town, which he probably is, then all three scum would be in those that didn't claim or claimed town.
Removing myself, that pool?
{House, Scorpious, Yume, Greeting, Flea the Magician, CheekyTeeky, ɀefiend, MegAzumarill}.
Of those players?
Greeting has no completed scumgames per their wiki. They have four towngames and zero scumgames. The preference for a towngame is probably thus true and accurate. SoGreeting is town.
Scorpious's wiki leaves it unclear, but very loosely imo indicates that town isslightlymore likely.
House I think has stated his town/scum preference before, but I sadly can't remember it and he has no real wiki so I have to keep him in the poolfor nowuntil I track it down.
Ditto for Flea; fae might've stated faer preference but I can't remember it.
Yume might've stated preference on one of her accounts but thanks to the number of them I can't track it down.
If Cheeky has stated her preference previously, I don't know it.
zefiend is impossible to track; ditto, for Meg.
So sadly, that doesn't narrow the pool down as much as I want, but it still helps as astartingpoint.
It gives us 3/7.5 names as scum from a narrowed list.
Not quite 50% odds of hitting scum, but 40% odds of hitting scum beats the default 25% we'd have otherwise (3/12).
And from this, we can get into the reads on players from that list.
{House,Scorpious, Yume, Flea the Magician, CheekyTeeky, ɀefiend, MegAzumarill}
Cheeky's play looks like scum;
Meg's play looks like scum.
Even if both are scum, that'd leave 1/4 of the remaining prime suspects as candidates.
This makes me lean town on zefiend.In post 164, ɀefiend wrote:What mastina is doing both scum!mastina and town!mastina could do; the act is merely Information Instead of Analysis, which is NAI. However there are some flaws, and although I have no way to prove it, what mastina says about what everyone submitted is not 100% true.
I submitted town preference overall, but all three of my scum roles were rejected (which seems ridiculous reading what some of y'all claim to submitted) -- so I was assigned a Vanilla preference if rolling scum.
I will also be keeping my own notes on people's claims, but if someone wants to neighborize me into mastina's PT so that I don't have to keep notes, it would be appreciated.
Not enough petty arguments to generate any reads yet.
Which leaves 1-3 scum in {House, Yume, Flea the Magician}.
I could see it being any of them, but while I can't read House worth a damn, loosely, I think his contributions are town. I think 102 was accurate regardless (if House is scum, he was the scum; otherwise, it's probably Meg), and find the Cheeky House vote there sus.
If I had to go gun to my head, I'd say that in {Yume, Flea, House}, towniest to scummiest it'd be House > Yume > Flea.
So right now, I'm thinking:
All 3 scum are in {CheekyTeeky, MegAzumarill, House, Yume, Flea the Magician};.
CheekyTeeky and MegAzumarill have a high chance of being scum;
House is less likely scum;
There's 1-2 scum in {Yume, Flea the Magician};
There's basically a guaranteed scum, 1-2, in {CheekyTeeky, MegAzumarill}
:BEAK: