Newbie 680: In this town of Cookieland... Over!

[Moratorium]

Mod: Please prod Barros (no posts in 6 days), Pimhel (no posts for 6 days), and Chuck Norris (no posts in 4 days).

None of these players have posted since Day 2 started. I would like to hear their opinions on my claim.

Also, I have answers to the questions "Why did you pick Barros to investigate?" and "Who will you investigate next?", but I do not wish to give out those answers until I've heard from everyone.

Please do not be too quick to hammer today, whoever the lynch target is. It is to town's advantage that we discuss this a lot and get a better feel on the remaining players.

[Barros]

I must confess I was shocked when I read all of the events that took place in this short weekend. Also, I realized that this is in fact a game and people are playing it to win, no matter what.

While in Day 1 most people seemed innocent and pro town in general, in day 2 suddenly most of them took the masks out and revealed themselves with a new gameplay and a new personality. You can see if you read careful that the comments aren't the same. Town people feel the pressure as two of their allies die in less than a couple of hours and mafia is pleased with its job. It couldn't have gone better for them, now all they need is a few more mislynches and I'm sure that an unexpected claim might lead some newbies to the second mislynch.

Moratorium, firstly you lynched ERIC as fast as you could with the excuse that "he was talking". Why didn't you wait for replacements? I bet you were to busy thinking about your nightkill. Then, when day2 comes, you start saying your cop and i'm Scum. You really want to rush things out.

Let me tell you something (something you already know for sure), you're not a cop. How do I know that you might ask. I know it because

I'm the sane cop

. And to proove it, the only thing I can say is that I investigated Pops, the obvious choice. Not some random player like you did. As you might remember he was really suspicious, everyone thought that pops was connected to Eric and both were scum. In the end, none of them were scum. My investigation ended with this result:

Pops is not scum!

Moratorium randomly chose someone, accused him of being scum but he turnned out to be cop. Really I would kill myself, that's just plain bad luck. But even if I wasn't cop I don't think many people would buy that crap. Come on... Investigated me based on what?

I dont beg the doc to protect me. if he doesn't or if you lynch me it's your fault town but at least you'll know who the really scum are.
And all that probablity class as it has been shown isn't really that great since we have the same prob if we believe him or not like it's shown by pops, so dont be amazed by a big comment full of grown up probabilites, it's all crap. He is scum and he couldn't have chosen a better person to accuse.

Good Luck with that moratorium, your mistake was to assume that a newbie game is the same as mental retarded game. Your theory is just full of flaws.

[Barros]

I'm sorry but i forgot the obvious part:

Vote: Moratorium

Couldn't be more certain about this. I really doubt it will change this day.

[Capricious]

Many thanks for your input, Barros, you may curl up and die now.

Unvote, Revote Barros

[popsofctown]

I don't believe that you can rightfully accuse me of lurking when I've still posted, posts of value I might add, much more than other people. And in terms of what pops says, I simply wanted to see people's reactions to Eric before I posted myself.

You simply wanted to see people's reactions to Eric? You mean, even more reactions? Because at the time of October 3rd, Moratorium had reacted, i had reacted, MME had reacted, even Barros had reacted.

I'm now even more suspicious of guy0. You said you were waiting to see people's reactions, when 4 people had actually reacted. The only other person left to give a reaction was Capricious, the absentees, and you.

And if you're not scum why would you be so afraid to give your reaction?

Let's first look at an element of the progress of the game that no one seems to have completely examined the outcome of, the other non-townie roles present. SO, according to the possible setups, since we "know" (i use quotes because we don't actually know 100%) that there is a cop, that means that if a doctor is present, so is a roleblocker.

(note: this post doesn't quote all of what guy0 says, i'm just talking about certain stuff)
Yeah i kind of though about this in between computer usages and realized Moratorium's math is slightly off, guy0's math is correct.
ANY DOCTOR should protect Moratorium

if

Barros flips roleblocker.
ANY DOCTOR should protect whoever they think is a good target if Barros flips goon.

I'm not going to vote for Barros YET, because this would probably turn out to be a short day 2 if i did, because he'd be at L-1 already. BUT, more importantly we need to hear EVERYONE'S opinion on this role-claim/accusation because that will have a very high probability of revealing something interesting about everyone in the game (including the replacements who haven't had enough time to post a lot, which is not necessarily their fault).

Yes. Along this train of thought, I invite Capricious to unvote for safety, without retracting his desire to lynch Barros. "But Pops, L-2 isn't that close". If one of our replacements is very aggressive/intuitive, they could vote Barros to L-1, and then Barros could self-hammer to stop talk, things do look that grim for him.

UPDATE: after just reading Moratorium's post, i think he could agree to this.... well maybe not, that would be me and Moratorium agreeing on something .

Now it seems like I've written an essay on this so i'll end it now, and post the rest of my thoughts after i've seen more people post, and have looked more into the NK that just happened to see who would've done it.

You can look back at the "forecast" i made. It was a pretty big post, but no one's talked about it understandably because Moratorium's cop claim eclipsed it.


--------------------------------------------------------------------
After having a while to think about it, i'm still not sure, a little bit less sure, about whether to believe Moratorium's cop claim.
guy0 pointed out that Barros looks way scummier than Moratorium, and i wholeheartedly agree with that. But i hope you recognize that this is actually WIFOM. If a scum plans to claim cop, and make a "me or him" situation, he's not going to pick someone cleaner than him, he's going to pick someone very scummy. I'm not sure if i used the term WIFOM right there. The point is, Barros' scumminess does not have an opposite relationship to Moratorium's claim. You're likely to have someone this bad off on day 2, and that person is the logical scapegoat.

Also, as an old proverb says, one man sounds right, until the other makes his case. We still haven't heard from Barros himself.

[popsofctown]

ok, i must immediately say that my immediately above post was not aware of several posts that preceded it. let me read

[Moratorium]

Awesome. Counterclaim is go. Let's analyze.

Moratorium, firstly you lynched ERIC as fast as you could with the excuse that "he was talking".

My original FoS was September 29th. I voted October 8th. I'm not sure what "he was talking" is referring to, but you can hardly characterize me as a bandwagon jumper.

Why didn't you wait for replacements?

This is legitimate, a smarter play would have been to wait for a replacement.

Then, when day2 comes, you start saying your cop and i'm Scum. You really want to rush things out.

No. I posted this 7 minutes before you did:

Please do not be too quick to hammer today, whoever the lynch target is. It is to town's advantage that we discuss this a lot and get a better feel on the remaining players.

Let me tell you something (something you already know for sure), you're not a cop. How do I know that you might ask. I know it because I'm the sane cop. And to

proove

it, the only thing I can say is that I investigated Pops

I know you are doing your best at this counterclaim, but you, I, and everyone else in this game is well aware that nothing we type here

proves

anything. You are doing your best to support your case with leading language, and it's cute. Wrong, but cute.

As you might remember he was really suspicious, everyone thought that pops was connected to Eric and both were scum.

"Hey everybody, remember pops, remember how you all thought he was guilty! Well I figured him out, yessiree I did, I'm the hero!"

My investigation ended with this result: Pops is not scum!

Obvious attempt at getting me to waste my next investigation. I have another idea in mind there, unfortunately for you.

Moratorium randomly chose someone...

...who I

FoS

'd on page 3...

I dont beg the doc to protect me. if he doesn't or if you lynch me it's your fault town but at least you'll know who the really scum are.

And there we have it. If you were really cop, you'd want the doctor to protect you.

so dont be amazed by a big comment full of grown up probabilites, it's all crap.

"I have no defense against math."

He is scum and he couldn't have chosen a better person to accuse.

Really? If I were scum, wouldn't I accuse the person everyone is arguing with, i.e. Pops? Seems like that would be the easiest route, wouldn't it? Why put myself through all these hoops?

[hr]

Ultimately, it comes down to this: I made this claim because I am a

WILLING SACRIFICE

to exchange one mafia for one townie, me. If I convince town to lynch you, big win for town. If I don't and get lynched instead, small win for town.

I'm afraid your counterclaim is very weak.

Happily, I can now answer the previous questions:

1) I investigated Barros because I had a choice from my two FoS's in post 64: Barros or Pops. Pops was talking like crazy, Barros wasn't saying a thing. I figured if I investigated Barros, I might also be able to learn about Pops just from his constant talking. But if I investigated Pops, I probably wouldn't learn anything about Barros since he was so quiet.

I went with the option that maximized information.

Simple, really.

2) The only way that I would reveal who I was to investigate next would be if we were lucky enough to lynch the Roleblocker (Hopefully Barros). Then I could be open about who to investigate (we could actually discuss it in thread and determine which investigation makes the most sense, almost like voting), and since we'd know there was a doctor alive, we could do this with impunity. Otherwise, if I say "i'll investigate STD tonight", scum then gets to make a decision on whether to block me. Why give them that option?

[popsofctown]

Ok...

I must admit here. Barros looks really really bad right now. The way he claimed didn't sound totally clean, and a counter cop claim is infinitely suspicious.

But, I'm inclined to believe him because i know the investigation he gave is right.. but that's the only reason i have to believe him. And his argument about Moratorium's target is kind of true. Moratorium clearly stated before that I was second on his list of suspicion, but now he says he didn't investigate me. He did say he investigated Barros, a good scapegoat.

MAJOR POINT: Barros' reaction to Moratorium's cop claim sucked. Sucked bad. But even even if Moratorium is scum, Moratorium could expect Barros to react badly. Barros' play this whole game, and his post history, has been pretty noobish and aggressive. Barros' horrible reaction.... and i know ya'll might hate me for saying something this far fetched... might be part of Moratorium's "master plan".

This kind of goes along with the investigative choice thing. If i was chosen as a scapegoat, i would probably have defended myself better. Looking at Barros' post history kind of shows that he is pretty jumpy and can't argue clearly.

more later....

[popsofctown]

At this point, i want to redeclare that i currently favor Moratorium is cop right now. I'm playing devil's advocate somewhat, and i'm trying to weight stuff out.

Right now we have two cop claims. Earlier i suggested leaving Barros and Moratorium alive, perhaps, then dismissed it. But now in this special case, it could be a really good middle road.

Suppose we have two goons, a cop, and townies. Tonight either Barros or Moratorium makes an investigation. No matter which one it is, the mafia has a catch twentytwo. They can night kill the detective, and tell us all for sure which of the two is guilty, or they can kill someone else, and allow an investigation to occur. I figure they would probably have to kill the detective. So leaving them alive would really and truly let us do day 3 scrounging today, and let us answer the day 2 claim question for sure, tomorrow.

Now, if we have a role blocker and a doctor, it does make this idea trickier.... i'll have to think about that. We could always call a mass claim to decide what setup we're in.

[popsofctown]

LOL, Pops un-FoS you and you unvoted him.... maybe he wanted to keep the atentions off him....

Or maybe i was wrong...
Maybe you (YOUNG ERIC) are dropping votes on pops because you realized you were turning yourself in. You realized you were being too scummy by voting on pops so now you just unvote.

You put pops on a L-3 situation, then you realized you were being too scummy, now you unvote him and you didn't vote in anyone else cause you want to get rid of the atention.

ERIC, you're obviously scum..

Unvote: Usernamenotincluded

Vote: YOUNG ERIC

After reading this post over again, Barros's messy cop claim looks a lot like his earlier stupidities/aggression. Like i was saying earlier... in the scenario that Moratorium is scum, he could expect nothing less from Barros than messy nonsense. I think Barros might even be vanilla townie.

Moratorium's investigation explanation made a heck of a lot of sense, on the other hand.

[popsofctown]

question for Barros: Are you roleblocker?

[guy0]

You simply wanted to see people's reactions to Eric? You mean, even more reactions? Because at the time of October 3rd, Moratorium had reacted, i had reacted, MME had reacted, even Barros had reacted.

I'm now even more suspicious of guy0. You said you were waiting to see people's reactions, when 4 people had actually reacted. The only other person left to give a reaction was Capricious, the absentees, and you.

So you said the only ones left were capricious and the absentees, who were precisely who I was waiting for. But I also must admit I was a little late on that reply, partly because I didn't really understand what the gravity of his post until a little later, and thus responded late.

1) I investigated Barros because I had a choice from my two FoS's in post 64: Barros or Pops. Pops was talking like crazy, Barros wasn't saying a thing. I figured if I investigated Barros, I might also be able to learn about Pops just from his constant talking. But if I investigated Pops, I probably wouldn't learn anything about Barros since he was so quiet. I went with the option that maximized information. Simple, really.

Very good defense I must say. But you seem to be a bit of a risk taker given your role-claim and you taking the risk in investigating Barros. You could have investigated pops, and if he turned scum, not role-claimed but accused him that day, and then done Barros the next day, or someone who appeared more suspicious than Barros did, but it would seem that, if you are telling the truth, that the risk paid off.


I'd also like to point out that i've noticed something rather peculiar that I will, like Moratorium, withhold until further postage by others.

Oh, I just realized I didn't comment on Barros yet. All i have to say now is, bold move Barros, bold move, but it will be difficult to defend yourself, granted, it was difficult to do this before you counterclaimed, so, ya.

Oh and also,

I dont beg the doc to protect me. if he doesn't or if you lynch me it's your fault town but at least you'll know who the really scum are.

And there we have it. If you were really cop, you'd want the doctor to protect you.

This doesn't really warrant a "there we have it" .... yet. you see if he's telling the truth (something we always need to take into consideration) then the best way for him to defend himself is to roleclaim unless he's some genius person who can convince everyone without doing that. But this is all speculation.

[guy0]

FYI posts 183,184 and 185 were made while I was writing my post, so, in case it makes a difference .... you get the picture

[popsofctown]

well, er i think you meant to say something different guy0... the reason that doesn't warrant a "there you have it" is because if Barros' claim is true, he is really shocked at Moratorium's play. I can pretty easily read his statement as a half blind attempt to show how different he is from "dirty Moratorium". It falls in line with my "Barros is stupid" theory.

@guy0: I'm somewhat happier with your explanation now.

@Moratorium: I've been meaning to ask this but i forgot: Why did you claim instead of just applying pressure to Barros? Barros looked pretty bad. I'd given Barros an FoS, I'd have backed you up. Barros doesn't look like genius scum that could guard himself brilliantly. And you wouldn't have to reveal the cop to the scum that way. Why did you make the early claim?

[guy0]

I think I meant to say what you think I meant to say pops, but i'm not totally sure if i completely understand what you mean to say about what i mean to say (that post is probably so convoluted that only pops can understand)

[popsofctown]

that's ok. I hope you mean to say what you meant to say in the way you meant to say it right now.

[popsofctown]

Really? If I were scum, wouldn't I accuse the person everyone is arguing with, i.e. Pops? Seems like that would be the easiest route, wouldn't it? Why put myself through all these hoops?

Isn't that the WIFOM I've heard so much about?

Besides, although i do suck at this game somewhat, I can defend myself better than Barros would be expected to defend himself.

[Capricious]

In case Moratorium and Barros are scum together pulling an extreme one right now:

The cop must claim right now, because should the cop claim and allow himself to be lynched, then we will have got the two scum for susequent days, 100% win.

Any further cop claims after today are void, since you did not claim today, when we had a 100% chance to win should you claim.

This scenario (that Moratorium and Barros are both scum) is, of course, extremely unlikely, but must be covered.

[Capricious]

To all who are unconvinced in the Moratorium-Barros face-off. I invite you to put yourself in Moratorium's posttion, assuming Moratorium is scum, and think really, really hard. It will be like a treasure hunt! You should figure out scum from this little exercise.

A strong argument by itself, yet very weak compared to what you will find if you engage in the exercise above:

Barros copied Moratorium and called himself a "Sane cop". Whereas if you look in the PM, nowhere does it mention the sanities of cops, as cops are all assumed to be sane in newbie games. The best explanation is that Barros is unfamiliar with the role of cop, and in particular, the flavor of cop in this game. Kudos to Moratorium for adding the "Sane". You see, this is how you set a trap.

[popsofctown]

it does say sane cop in the setup list.... but that doesn't help Barros much, he should have gotten a PM.

I'm assuming the excersise will lead me to conclude that Moratorium is not scum. Heck, it probably will, many many signs point that Barros is not cop. I don't have time right now though... i really need to get to my essay. It is due Wednesday. You can all read it at the end if you want to, it is about cookies . Or maybe Romantic-era poetry .

EVERYONE READ POST 192.
Though, yeah, that's massively unlikely at this point.

[popsofctown]

Hrm, i just realized a paradox (i am really writing an essay, i'm just a bad, distracted worker). If we lynch Barros and he's cop, I'm confirmed innocent. If I help lynch Barros and Moratorium is cop, I'm more likely to be believed innocent... is it like, just in my best interest to bullcharge Barros?

[guy0]

Barros copied Moratorium and called himself a "Sane cop". Whereas if you look in the PM, nowhere does it mention the sanities of cops, as cops are all assumed to be sane in newbie games. The best explanation is that Barros is unfamiliar with the role of cop, and in particular, the flavor of cop in this game. Kudos to Moratorium for adding the "Sane". You see, this is how you set a trap.

While you do make a good point, it doesn't necessarily mean anything. I mean Barros also copied the larger font thing, which was probably, in addition to writing sane, in an attempt to contrast moratorium's post. If we are really going to focus on the details of whether or not "sane" means anything, moratorium should be more at fault since he was the first to use it, and, thus, may not have been quoting the pm since he looked at the game set-up. But I am still looking at all possible scenarios, I still believe that Barros has a good chance at being scum.

P.S. your comment about moratorium and barros being in tandem was what i meant when i said before, I had something to reveal later.

[Moratorium]

There was no intent at a trap by specifying "Sane". If I had laid such a verbal trap, I would have said something in my analysis of Barros's counterclaim (like AHA GOT YOU). I specified "Sane" based on the role scenarios laid out in post #1, which I had been looking at to determine possible outcomes (like, for example, the knowledge that if there is a roleblocker, there must be a doctor).

Another point of interest and contrast between my claim and the counterclaim is that, without directly quoting my investigation result PM, I can state that the result I got on Barros was about his

guilt

, not his role. Barros flipped guilty, not scum. In Barros' counterclaim, he specified that pops flipped "not scum", which is not what the cop role reveals.

http://www.mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Cop

This, more than the "Sane Cop" verbal trap proposal from Capricious (that was never my original intent anyways), indicates to me a misunderstanding of the Cop role by Barros, and with no actual PM to go by, he took a guess at the syntax.

[guy0]

i'm not a fan of this whole word pounce thing. I don't think it proves much. We still haven't heard from everyone yet, which is starting to get annoying

[Moratorium]

But, I'm inclined to believe him (Barros) because i know the investigation he gave is right.. but that's the only reason i have to believe him.

In counterclaiming, Barros was in a position where he had to gain allies/votes. If you truly are basing your "that's the only reason i have" belief on the fact that he was correct, I hope you also realize that his only good plays were:

1) Saying that he investigated

me

and claim he got a guilty result. Confuse everyone.
2) Picking someone, claiming a confirmed innocent, and gaining an ally.

By picking someone else and claiming guilty, he gains nothing, that person is immediately suspicious, and everything unravels. So choosing you, the most talked about player, and saying you are innocent, is, I hope you realise, an obvious play.

@Moratorium: I've been meaning to ask this but i forgot: Why did you claim instead of just applying pressure to Barros? Barros looked pretty bad. I'd given Barros an FoS, I'd have backed you up. Barros doesn't look like genius scum that could guard himself brilliantly. And you wouldn't have to reveal the cop to the scum that way. Why did you make the early claim?

I answered this in post 164. First, I disagree with you that "Barros looked pretty bad." No one was saying much of anything about Barros on Day 1, and nothing at all in the early part of Day 2. In fact, the first Day 2 posts were cases being started on me by you and Capricious regarding your perceived suspicions of me RE: Young Eric being hammered.

So now put yourself in my position. Day 2 arrives. I have a beneficial investigation result. My investigation target has flown under the radar most of the game. The rest of town is suspicious of me due to the vote results. If the rest of town lynches me, we're in some serious trouble, we'll be LYLO on Day 3 (3 town 2 mafia), with no good information on anyone. I have to figure something out right now or we are lost. And not "I have to hope someone comes up with something"... I have to figure it out! I'm the one with the damn guilty verdict!

So...

I'm going to take this entire game and turn it into a logical puzzle instead of a mash of psychology and failed motive guesses.

I decided to go with trying to figure out the odds. And the odds said to play the sacrifice. I knew I would have to fight a counterclaim, but I also knew that

even if I lost, there were possible mitigating factors

(immediate reveal of scum if lynched, possible doctor NK save if not lynched), and a bottom line that wasn't a complete disaster (33% town win chance).

So again. Here we are. If you lynch Barros, town is way ahead. If you lynch me, town is slightly ahead. If you lynch someone else, you're taking a shot in the dark, and most likely you'll be LYLO Day 3. The risk in choosing between myself and Barros to lynch is EQUAL, because whoever you pick, if it was a mistake, the other guy goes next. So why not pick the one with the best case, and take a shot at town going way ahead? Who do you think has made the best case, me or Barros?

That, right there, is the paragraph I'm going to quote when this game is over.