Open 708: Pick Your Poison - Game Over

[Klick]

The case is coming

[Thor665]

has cult been on any relevant wagons all game?

Klick too, methinks.

[Thor665]

mozamis
CultOfAthena
Maxous
Errantparabola

The above is pretty much my current lynch pool.
I personally softly am leaning town on Cult and Moz, so am kind of interested to see the Cult case.
Feels like Max or EP are the smart money bets.

[Thor665]

I'm leaning Max currently.

[Beefster]

Beef and Thor are rather obvious town based on interactions with the flipped scum.

VOTE: CultOfAthena

I would expect the opposite conclusion on me since I thought both of the flipped scum were town. But I'll take it.

Some of my more recent stuff on COA was based on moz scum buddy, which we now know is impossible, so I'll have to look at her ISOs before I jump on this wagon.

On the surface, I approve.

[Beefster]

If COA is scum, she hasn't bussed, though this sticks out to me as possible buddying/IIOA:

I like 100 except the assumption that scum would be always distancing in the early game. Why wouldn't scum want to throw a little accusation out which can later be used to say "Look at this, I'm not this guy/gal's partner"? (among other stuff of course)

That's definitely something scum go for often, but I believe that tends to happen later in the game, when scum are more confident in their position to start to distance and play for the long game. The reason I pointed it out as an early read in specific is because, coming right out of rvs, tying yourself to your scumbuddy like that could be something that lasts for the rest of the game (and a short game that would be). It's also something unlikely to be WIFOM-ed, because I don't think a lot of people look at very early game interactions like that.

[Beefster]

Most likely scum at this point is COA, EP, and

maybe

Klick. I'm not sure if moz fits in there somewhere, but I'll sheep what people were saying about moz/tex scumteam being very unlikely. For now.

VOTE: CultOfAthena

[Maxous]

My initial thought is that it's Athena as well.
I don't think she has good interactions with *either* scum, and I can't remember a compelling reason to townread her.

It's definitely not Beefster.
Still highly doubt it's Klick.
Based on the end of day 1 I doubt it's Moz, ironically largely based on the argument I was using against him before. I don't think he would of pushed Texcat over HWS.
Thor...probably not. I'll relook over that end of day 2.

So leaves EP and Athena I think but I'm considering I was tunneling on EP.

Anyway there's my initial thoughts here

[Flubbernugget]

It probably goes without saying that I'm not entertaining a double bus anywhere

I need to review

[Flubbernugget]

I want to iso coa, max.

Do we have three lynches?

[Flubbernugget]

Okay so I went over coa. Their ISO has a healthy combination of inquisitiveness and perusal of reads.

However, Maxous's note about the COA/scum interactions looks quite damning. There is one post to HWS, and nothing on tex. Both of their scum reads are lynchbait.

[CultOfAthena]

If COA is scum, she hasn't bussed, though this sticks out to me as possible buddying/IIOA:

You're saying that I was buddying my scum buddy?

Does that make sense to you?

---

VOTE: Errantparabola

Seems like RC had it right come the end of the day, and this is where I'd like to begin for today. I'll try to make a more detailed case when I get the chance. Sincerely doubt that town loses this one at this point.

[Flubbernugget]

If you were looking at RC's reads I'd expect you to look at moz

[Flubbernugget]

Btw if RC didn't have scum in his reads I would have been the preferable kill to him

[Thor665]

I actually think it's Tex/Maxous rn

@Flubber
@CoA

As long as you're both theorizing about RC's reads...

@Flubber - you were absolutely an inferior kill option for scum.
RC was a Tracker.
With one scum alive she's a cop.

[Beefster]

If COA is scum, she hasn't bussed, though this sticks out to me as possible buddying/IIOA:

You're saying that I was buddying my scum buddy?

Does that make sense to you?

I'm not sure what doesn't make sense about that. Throughout this entire game, you have more or less avoided the subject of both confirmed scum. Your vote hasn't been on either one.

[mozamis]

i susopect it is cult. she's agood palyer, and yet she's been l;ike a fartin the wind all game. I cant remember ever PUSHING anyone all game.
And the vote on Ep...how original lol She's vote parking.
However, I'm not completley sure yet.

[mozamis]

Look at Beef, Thor, Max - they are all putting reads, a bit unsure, THINKING about the game, different options.
Cult comes in and says "EP."
She's shows no ignorance.

[mozamis]

So P.O.E Moz, Thor, Beef, Max, Flubb = town.
scum must be in Cult, Klick, Ep.

[Thor665]

Why aren't you POEing Klick?

[Flubbernugget]

@Flubber - you were absolutely an inferior kill option for scum.
RC was a Tracker.
With one scum alive she's a cop.

Yeah, didn't think that 100% through.

I still need to relook at the rc reads outside of moz

[Flubbernugget]

Moz, what does a coa push look like?

[Thor665]

I still need to relook at the rc reads outside of moz

She went through a lot of changes by the end, and regardless of her reads they would have killed her.
I don't really see Moz/HWS/Tex as a high liklihood scumteam (though it would make me feel damnably good about my doubts yesterday if it was true)

I think Max including me in his 'maybe potential' scumreads but outright clearing Beef speaks to an agenda - so I tend to point at that as a good starting point.
CoA, at this stage, is a lurker riding off a decent Day 1, so I'm not really wanting to go to the mat for her, but will admit I haven't seen much to clear nor damn her when skimming over the flipped scum isos.

Really I'd like to look at some VCA again, but am feeling really lazy.
Though I think I maybe already did a theory Tex...

mozamis

(4):

Thor665, Klick

, Beefster,

RadiantCowbells

Errantparabola

(3): Maxous,

mozamis

, CultOfAthena

Klick

(2): Errantparabola,

Flubbernugget

Beefster

(1):

texcat

Not Voting

(0):

None.

mozamis

(4):

Thor665, Klick

, Beefster,

RadiantCowbells

Flubbernugget

Errantparabola

(3): Maxous,

mozamis

, CultOfAthena

Klick

(2): Errantparabola,

Beefster

(1):

texcat

Not Voting

(0):

None.

Here's what the last vote count looks like with this theory in mind.
So, if the douchbag twat moz is town - then Beefster or Klick are scum.
I have issues connecting Klick to scum, so it's probably Beef - which can work out with how weak his sheeping has been of late, and *also* works with a theory Tex/Beef/HWS team as of the end of day 1 VCA.

@RC - talk me through where Moz's partner currently is as you see it.
@Both - you also both need to address me clearing Klick, which is the basis of this theory to begin with.
And with the Flubber move reflected.

Ooooh, I did!

Looking at those, it actually says to me that Beef should be in the consideration.
Probably last scum is in Beef/Max/CoA (presuming I'm right about Klick and Moz)
Outside chance on EP, but I kind of feel like him and Tex didn't work that well in my head.

[Klick]

UNVOTE:

I no longer have confidence in the COA scumread. But for the sake of it, I'll still provide what I saw at the time and why I viewed it as scummy. It was primarily focused on COA's posts on Page 66:

He's going out of his way to drag up a confirmed town to make a town case on HWS at a point HWS is not in lynch danger.
Now, *maybe* this is a roundabout way to protect HWS from a Vig.
But I'm not sure I see it.

You should both offer me some feedback on that, *because*;

Can you explain where the "confirmed town" part of this comes in? Because what you just described sounds mostly like a scum strategy to me – a pretty good one, in fact.

It comes from a lack of a counterclaim.

Okay, reading comprehension failure on my part for that line.

So you're saying that if you were scum, and you had a scumbuddy not in danger of a lynch, you would ask other people to defend him to you while you were bussing him?
Because that sounds like a defense move, not a bussing move.
To rephrase - that move makes a lot of sense if the goal was to *not* see HWS flipped for your own towncred.
Klick's votes don't support that reality.

While we're at it, who do you see as the most likely scum on the Moz wagon and the HWS wagon - or do you think either/both wagons are totally town driven (and if so, why?)

I disagree – that move has two outcomes: the first is that a conftown builds a town case on your scumbuddy, giving them more town cred. The second is that, if that partner

were

to ever flip, you would look good from it, being able to point back and say that you knew all along. I would say that immediately getting your partner flipped isn't always the end goal of bussing – it's more about getting the nonassociative. Even if the main goal

is

to immediately get the partner flipped, having a town case to dissect seems a lot easier than building your own scum case on someone.

That's not to say that I think Klick went through this entire same thought process – just that I don't understand where your townread there is coming from. I think Klick was the scum on both wagons.

I saw this entire miniature push against me as scum-motivated. It seemed as though COA was setting up for having the opportunity to push me whenever she wanted, silently keeping a scumread on me without a vote to back it up. COA starts Day 2 with a vote on me, then switches her vote to EP with very little reasoning. The situation looked as though she was setting up her reads to fit a longer-term goal.

However, that night I went and looked through her ISO from the beginning and she's literally had some kind of low-key scumread on me the entire game and it hasn't changed. I find that null.

[Thor665]

Vote Count 1.5

Transcend

(4): CultOfAthena, Klick, mozamis, Maxous

Flubbernugget

(2):

texcat

,

Thor665

Beefster

(1):

RadiantCowbells

mozamis

(1): Beefster

texcat

(1):

Flubbernugget

Not Voting

(4):

Moneybags, Transcend

,

HeWhoSwims

, Errantparabola

Vote Count 1.6

Flubbernugget

(3):

texcat

,

Thor665, Moneybags

Beefster

(3): mozamis, CultOfAthena,

Flubbernugget

Errantparabola

(2):

RadiantCowbells

, Klick

CultOfAthena

(1): Beefster

texcat

(1):

Transcend

Not Voting

(3): Errantparabola,

HeWhoSwims

, Maxous

Actual VC 1.8

texcat

(5): Klick,

Moneybags, RadiantCowbells

, mozamis, Beefster

Beefster

(3): CultOfAthena,

Flubbernugget

,

texcat

HeWhoSwims

(2):

Transcend, Thor665

Errantparabola

(1): Maxous

Not Voting

(2): Errantparabola,

HeWhoSwims

Official Vote Count 1.9

HeWhoSwims

(4):

Transcend, Thor665, RadiantCowbells

, mozamis

Beefster

(3): CultOfAthena,

Flubbernugget

,

texcat

texcat

(3): Klick,

Moneybags

, Beefster

Errantparabola

(1): Maxous

Not Voting

(2): Errantparabola,

HeWhoSwims

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.