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Posted: Sun Nov 17, 2013 9:15 pm
by goodmorning
why am i awake at 3am

SERIOUSLY GUYS

Votecount 1.59

orcinus_theoriginal [L-2] - PeregrineV, likeabauss, Hermy, RadiantCowbells, MVP, yessiree, Sakura Hana


caledfwitch [L-3] - MC Maraca, Guyett, Cephrir, sangres, orcinus_theoriginal, Angry Frat BROs

likeabauss [L-8] - JacobSavage

Guyett [L-8] - caledfwitch

Not Voting [2] - TheIrishPope, Toomai

With 17 alive, it takes
9
to lynch. The day will end in (expired on 2013-11-20 09:39:00)

Posted: Sun Nov 17, 2013 9:16 pm
by TheIrishPope
Unvote orcinus please

Posted: Sun Nov 17, 2013 9:17 pm
by RadiantCowbells
TIP, if you vote FratBro we have a deal.

Posted: Sun Nov 17, 2013 9:19 pm
by MC Maraca
In post 1776, TheIrishPope wrote:Unvote orcinus please
Finally a sane fucker. Hi tippy.

Posted: Sun Nov 17, 2013 9:21 pm
by TheIrishPope
If you're scum, I swear

And I'm not voting AP and BRO any time soon

Posted: Sun Nov 17, 2013 9:23 pm
by RadiantCowbells
Then we're at an impasse.

Posted: Sun Nov 17, 2013 9:35 pm
by MC Maraca
In post 1780, RadiantCowbells wrote:Then we're at an impasse.
Do you only have those two scumreads?

Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2013 12:00 am
by Cephrir
I read some pages with words on them but my opinion didn't change.

Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2013 12:03 am
by MVP
@AFB: actually I'm in V/LA longer than ns.

@MCM: you forgot to account the possibility of fake cop "clearing" his partner while the real cop doesn't exist and bringing the shitload of wifom to this village.

Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2013 1:51 am
by Sakura Hana
Unvote
Vote: caled

Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2013 4:45 am
by Toomai
Vote: caledfwitch
[L-1]


I still do not agree with this lynch; the wagon sprang up rather quickly and seems to exist for no reason other than to be a counterwagon to orcinus. But at this point it's either that or orcinus, and I'm not voting orcinus.

Deadline is in less than 2 days. caledfwitch should claim.

Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2013 4:50 am
by TheIrishPope
Wow that was so scummy.
If I'm alive tomorrow, I've got shit to say.

Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2013 5:01 am
by likeabauss
Toomai, Sakura, come onto Orcinus. I don't think we should make Caled claim and/or lynch her.

Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2013 5:03 am
by likeabauss
If you don't trust my Rank read, just look at his behavior. Reread his ISO, look at the deviations in play as things progressed. Look at post claim play, certainly not that of town.

Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2013 5:14 am
by likeabauss
Guyett? Back me up on Orcinus. All my scum reads are on the Caled wagon. Isn't that a sign?

Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2013 7:42 am
by RadiantCowbells
If Caled gets lynched today and flips town, you're implicitly giving me permission to decide the next 3 lynches.

Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2013 7:52 am
by likeabauss
In post 688, goodmorning wrote:Votecount 1.25

Guyett [L-3] - PeregrineV, Sakura Hana,
orcinus_theoriginal
, TheIrishPope, Toomai,
Angry Frat BROs
In post 895, goodmorning wrote:JacobSavage [L-4] - sangres,
MC Maraca
,
orcinus_theoriginal
, Cephrir, Hermy
In post 1100, goodmorning wrote:JacobSavage [L-4] - sangres,
MC Maraca
, Cephrir, Hermy,
Angry Frat BROs
In post 1401, goodmorning wrote:RadiantCowbells [L-4] -
MC Maraca
, TheIrishPope, RadiantCowbells, Cephrir,
orcinus_theoriginal
In post 1775, goodmorning wrote:caledfwitch [L-3] -
MC Maraca
, Guyett, Cephrir, sangres,
orcinus_theoriginal
,
Angry Frat BROs
4 potentially viable wagons for today, outside of FratBros and Orcinus for today. Look at who is on most of them. This isn't rocket science. Orcinus has been on ALL of them. FratBros and McMaraca on 3 each.

Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2013 7:56 am
by likeabauss
In post 1354, goodmorning wrote:Angry Frat BROs [L-4] - likeabauss, Toomai, Hermy, RadiantCowbells, PeregrineV
In post 1485, goodmorning wrote:orcinus_theoriginal [L-1] - Sakura Hana, sangres, Guyett, PeregrineV, Toomai, likeabauss, yessiree, TheIrishPope
In post 1775, goodmorning wrote:orcinus_theoriginal [L-2] - PeregrineV, likeabauss, Hermy, RadiantCowbells, MVP, yessiree, Sakura Hana

Wagons for FratBros and Orcinus above. NOTICE who isn't on ANY OF THOSE WAGONS?
Angry Frat BROs

orcinus_theoriginal

MC Maraca


Doesn't that strike anybody else as odd? Out of place? They've basically been ALL about lynching anybody else, except for FratBros and Orcinus.

Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2013 8:10 am
by MVP
So let me get this straight.

Bauss puts his ass on the line and calls out his Mafia Bro for being scum, and Orci decides to claim cop (which isn't an unlikely scum claim).

Cabd freaks out, misreps Caled, and decides to policy lynch her instead of trying to get a good scum-lynch.

Everyone on the Caled wagon is bad and should feel bad.

Orci must be one hell of a scum-role or scum player to be getting this kind of protection from his scum-team.

~ Pete

Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2013 8:15 am
by Guyett
VOTE: orc

Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2013 8:15 am
by Guyett
Not happy with the caled wagon

Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2013 8:26 am
by RadiantCowbells
He's most likely a valuable maf PR.

Maybe a role cop or ninja.

Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2013 8:37 am
by MVP
In post 1762, MC Maraca wrote:This is a method of dealing with cop claims that come early in games that works really well. It's adapted mostly from a player's notes on my homesite (Her name is gaia) but several other players use it; most recently, prohawk used it to great success to deal with the cop claim and counterclaims from Notscience and Sven in Skype mafia.

1. When two players claim the role of Cop, they are lynch immune for at least one Day, No Vote (Vote: Nobody) should be made that Day. (Cabd note: I prefer a PL on day one)


2. When more than two players claim the role of Cop, lynch any one of them immediately. You are more likely to lynch scum than town. Then, play out the previous dot point. If you lynch the Cop, the other two are scum.


3. When more than two players claim the role of Cop, and then players retract their claims, players who retracted are null reads.


4. When multiple results give a Guilty result, the named player is considered Guilty beyond all doubt.

5. When multiple results give a Clear result, the named player is Clear beyond all doubt and should be considered so for the rest of the game except when a Godfather may exist, Clear results must be considered null or tentative.

6. When two Cops claim Roleblocked at any time, a Roleblocker is said to exist.


Fact of the matter is, a counterclaim would shift this into a prisoner's dilemma for the scumteam, no matter which of the claim or the counterclaim is not legitimate. (I personally substitute policy lynches for a no lynch but eh) If anyone wants me to explain why this works I can but I think it is kind of self explanatory when we go at it. Fact of the matter is, I'm not lynching a cop claim on day one when it'll work itself out at night by itself, and if he is a cop we've denied ourselves the chance at results.

The point of leaving the cops alive is that someone gets killed and the cops get more results. So when you do eventually flip one, more results are available, more analysis can be done etc. Plus it can force the mafia to confirm a Townie. And it means that one mafia vote is basically forced to vote with Town which can help and also be analysed. There are more setup-specific reasons why it's best to keep Cops alive for a while and in particular in closed setups, Cops should always be alive.

I'm looking this over and I think it works even if orcinus does end up being a fake cop and a real one is hiding somewhere. (For the record, I think he's legit and you guys are letting scum push a cop lynch)
Dear Cabd,

Your theory about this slot advocates a(n)

( ) insightful
(X) interesting
( ) uncommon ( ) crazy

approach to reading it. Your method will not work. Here is why it won't work. (One or more of the following may apply to your particular idea, and it may have other flaws which vary from player to player)

(X) Scum can use it as a blank check to hide.

(X) It is just as likely to get false positives.

( ) Your solution speculates as to motives not apparent to everyone
( ) Your theory requires us to treat you as confirmed town
(X) My read disagrees with the slot being "obvscum" or "obvtown"

(X) WIFOM says the player would have known you'd do this if it was scum

(X) Anyone could fake the result they want since it's only their word

(X) This is a closed set-up
(X) It's more likely to fish out town-roles


Specifically, your plan fails to account for

( ) Lack of confirmed townies
( ) Timezones
( ) The claim from that slot
(X) Ease of planning a response in advance assuming scum daychat

( ) Asshats
( ) Nobody trusts you
( ) Unpopularity of new gambits
(X) The existence of already successful scumhunting tactics

(X) Susceptibility of newbtown to fall for it as well

( ) Willingness of players to give you a chance
( ) People who hate your play
( ) Scum safeclaims given by mod

and the following philosophical objections may also apply:
(X) It could just as easily be WIFOM

(X) Ideas similar to yours are easy to come up with, yet none have ever
been shown reliable

( ) Any scheme based on opt-out is unacceptable
( ) Flavor Gambits suck
(X) Why should we have to trust you and your methods?

( ) Incompatibility with the current player base
( ) Feel-good measures do nothing to solve the problem
(X) Revealing info does nothing but assist scum

(X) They don't deserve a slow and painful death

( ) Killing them that way is not slow and painful enough

Furthermore, this is what I think about you:

( ) Sorry dude, but I don't think it's a viable tell.
(X) This is a stupid idea, and you're a stupid person for suggesting it.

( ) Nice try, assh0le! I'm going to find out where you live and burn your
house down!

With Love,
Pete Rose

Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2013 8:39 am
by Cabd
I'll admit, varsoon, you made me smile.

Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2013 8:39 am
by Cabd
Phoneposting, GM, will quote these as maraca later I promise.