Mafiascum.net

In post 1773, Menalque wrote:I want you to pick based on what has been suggested in consultation, yes

I cbf to try to corral everyone here into actually voting using hurt tags to try and pick an investigation pool where if you didn’t abide it would potentially put the TD anyway

I don’t want you to control who we lynch (so long as we’re lynching from within a pool of confirmed scum)

In post 1774, Moment wrote:I'd rather he didn't handpick.

there's too much dissonance in everyone's brackets to 'please' yall
so if i do this, i'll be eating shit again even tho my first selection turned out great

it's not really handpicking *my* selection, but rather from my townreads with maybe a curve ball in it

and yes, obviously lynch will be normal majority in the bracket

what is everyone's thoughts about the size of Night 2 inspect?

3 seemed to be what most people are shooting for, but i saw menal opting for maybe 2

3 has better odds of catching scum, but with 2 we lessen the damage if we don't hit tea

In post 1775, Iconeum wrote:so if i do this, i'll be eating shit again even tho my first selection turned out great

Don't get full of yourself. Don't forget that your first selection for a lynch didn't turn out great.

In post 1778, Moment wrote:

In post 1775, Iconeum wrote:so if i do this, i'll be eating shit again even tho my first selection turned out great

Don't get full of yourself. Don't forget that your first selection for a lynch didn't turn out great.

?????????????

I think if norwee is in there are v good chances we hit tea again especially if notscience reds

In which case as small as possible is good because we’d have enough to win the game via lynches and the main risk would be from TD catching

In post 1777, Iconeum wrote:what is everyone's thoughts about the size of Night 2 inspect?

3 seemed to be what most people are shooting for, but i saw menal opting for maybe 2

3 has better odds of catching scum, but with 2 we lessen the damage if we don't hit tea

Both of these are double-edged.

• 3 has better odds of catching scum, but lower payoff if we do.
  
• 2 may lessen the “damage” of a no-tea result, but having a number of players confirmed town is good anyway.

Given how scumsided this setup seems to be I think 2 may be the better option just because it has higher variance (in general, when you are losing a game, raising the variance is a good thing).

In post 1778, Moment wrote:

In post 1775, Iconeum wrote:so if i do this, i'll be eating shit again even tho my first selection turned out great

Don't get full of yourself. Don't forget that your first selection for a lynch didn't turn out great.

yeah ur right i'm terrible

i wasn't able to catch scum in a SEVENTEEN!!!! player game that has all of THREE!!!! scum in it on DAY ONE!!!

i'm so bad lol

In post 1778, Moment wrote:

In post 1775, Iconeum wrote:so if i do this, i'll be eating shit again even tho my first selection turned out great

Don't get full of yourself. Don't forget that your first selection for a lynch didn't turn out great.

also why don't you respond to what's actually important instead of spewing this bullshit?

In post 1782, Iconeum wrote:

In post 1778, Moment wrote:

In post 1775, Iconeum wrote:so if i do this, i'll be eating shit again even tho my first selection turned out great

Don't get full of yourself. Don't forget that your first selection for a lynch didn't turn out great.

yeah ur right i'm terrible

i wasn't able to catch scum in a SEVENTEEN!!!! player game that has all of THREE!!!! scum in it on DAY ONE!!!

i'm so bad lol

That's not what I said.

Alisae if you could add 1 person to norwee being investigated, who would it be?

Menalq if you could add 1 person to norwee and umlaut being investigated who would it be?

Yeah I think you’re overreacting here tbh ico

umlaut if you could pick 2, who would they be?

sure sure, let's just focus on getting this inspection bracket up and running

I don’t want umlaut investigated, my 2 would be (norwee, nk15) just to hopefully kill the paranoia there

Moment, who would your pick of 2 be?

In post 1787, Iconeum wrote:umlaut if you could pick 2, who would they be?

I guess {NK15, EE}, I don't really think RR has significant chances of being scum.

In post 1784, Moment wrote:

In post 1782, Iconeum wrote:

In post 1778, Moment wrote:

In post 1775, Iconeum wrote:so if i do this, i'll be eating shit again even tho my first selection turned out great

Don't get full of yourself. Don't forget that your first selection for a lynch didn't turn out great.

yeah ur right i'm terrible

i wasn't able to catch scum in a SEVENTEEN!!!! player game that has all of THREE!!!! scum in it on DAY ONE!!!

i'm so bad lol

That's not what I said.

please forgive me if i'm overreacting
let me get my morning coffee and things will turn out ok

In post 1789, Menalque wrote:I don’t want umlaut investigated, my 2 would be (norwee, nk15) just to hopefully kill the paranoia there

do you really think scum are gonna be fake claiming like NK did?

In post 1789, Menalque wrote:I don’t want umlaut investigated, my 2 would be (norwee, nk15) just to hopefully kill the paranoia there

I think that mixing together an investigation that you expect to result in a guilty (presumably Norwegianboy) with a "paranoia" investigation, so to speak, is a bad idea.

Thoughts?

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In post 1790, Iconeum wrote:Moment, who would your pick of 2 be?

I'm a fan of GL's pool in 1728.

In post 1785, Iconeum wrote:Alisae if you could add 1 person to norwee being investigated, who would it be?

Menalq if you could add 1 person to norwee and umlaut being investigated who would it be?

umlaut

In post 1793, Iconeum wrote:

In post 1789, Menalque wrote:I don’t want umlaut investigated, my 2 would be (norwee, nk15) just to hopefully kill the paranoia there

do you really think scum are gonna be fake claiming like NK did?

No, but a lot of people seem to think that so if they need an invest on NK15 to try and get over it I don’t hate the idea

I also don’t love it. Tbh I’d be fine with norwee as a solo invest

In post 1794, Moment wrote:I think that mixing together an investigation that you expect to result in a guilty (presumably Norwegianboy) with a "paranoia" investigation, so to speak, is a bad idea.

Thoughts?

Eh it’s a bit of a gamble and I see what you mean, but my logic is that if notscience flips scum then I/we probably have enough clout to keep the guillotine off NK15 in that scenario and to get it to norwee

In post 1793, Iconeum wrote:

In post 1789, Menalque wrote:I don’t want umlaut investigated, my 2 would be (norwee, nk15) just to hopefully kill the paranoia there

do you really think scum are gonna be fake claiming like NK did?

If you don’t think it’s necessary to put nk15 in for paranoia reasons, I wouldn’t be opposed to Hel going in

Or ali for that matter

In post 1797, Menalque wrote:

In post 1794, Moment wrote:I think that mixing together an investigation that you expect to result in a guilty (presumably Norwegianboy) with a "paranoia" investigation, so to speak, is a bad idea.

Thoughts?

Eh it’s a bit of a gamble and I see what you mean, but my logic is that if notscience flips scum then I/we probably have enough clout to keep the guillotine off NK15 in that scenario and to get it

on

to norwee

I think that perhaps you would be surprised. But of course, that's just my prediction.


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I think that including both Alisae and Norwegian in the same pool would be suboptimal. In general I think that when creating an investigation pool around expected partners of an expected scumflip, you ought to include one and leave one out. The logic goes something like this – if you're investigating the people who you would already consider your lynchpool for tomorrow, the only outcome that would really change what you were going to do anyways would be an innocent result. If you already consider X and Y to be the likeliest partners of Z and you were already only lynching among them, then getting a guilTea result doesn't change all that much.

Including one, excluding another and including an unknown third party (a sort of "wild card") seems to me to be a better way to narrow things down. Innocent result, lynch the partner suspect you left out and if you're wrong then you realize that both of your most likely suspects were incorrect and in the process you gained an innocent on a third party. GuilTea result, lynch the partner suspect in the pool and if you're wrong then you've still won despite investigating a less suspect third party rather than your top picks for partners.