In post 1747, Datisi wrote:the second paragraph is an afterthought that might be wrong. george's position on janko wagon made me think he was a likely scum candidate. obviously that's now proven wrong.
my point is, if bob were scum, what were his scumbuddies doing? looking at me screaming at janko the entirety of day one, only for that wagon to barely go through? i don't think that's likely. if they were committed to bussing bob, bob would've died. if they were actually trying to save him, i would've gotten more support earlier. i think the game didn't care too much which one of the two wagons got through. hence TvT.
See, this is strong analysis on the wagons NPOM, and explains a likely tvt situation.
You taking wagon analysis at face value from the person that was instrumental in driving the execution of a Town player is baffling to me. Anyway I already think you are somewhat suspect so, it does not matter all that much.
I'm so baffled by people immediately scumreading someone that drove a kill on a townie. Youre aware that town dont know people's alignment outside some type of pr situation. So yeah, town do drive mis-executions, and usually its town driving those misexecutions. It's more often scum that are on for the ride. Because obviously the reasoning was strong enough that other people came along, which means it was genuine and not bullshit.
And Datisi isn't back in this thread brashly pushing for another kill. She's taking the "L". The players that shade people for pushing cases on people that flip town, that always pings me hard. And you've been pushing Bob fairly hard. If bob flips town, by your logic should we be coming for your head tomorrow? And how are we gonna do that when Koba's been pushing hard for Bob too?
This is why this logic is trash and I hate it.
Posted: Thu Aug 13, 2020 3:38 am
by Andresvmb
I am not interested in flipping DkKoba, VPB, hellbooks, or Alduskkel today to be totally honest. I think GB could have been read as a PR, but I think it has more to do with a few things - it makes hellbooks look somewhat bad (look at the anti-vanguard post in 1676), and it eliminates an early voter on Snowblaze/Bob, who switched towards the end of the Day onto Janko. Funny enough, I have a voice on the back of my head telling me that Ico has been completely pocketed by Datisi, and I am suspect of Billy + Bob. I can't quite make my mind up about Testarossa yet.
Still, what makes most sense to me right now is probably VOTE: Bob. But frankly, I wish this had happened yesterday, because I would have a much better sense of whether we are remotely on the right track. Now, it's a gamble, and though I am openly disagreeing with Datisi's wagon analysis of the situation, it's still
In post 1747, Datisi wrote:the second paragraph is an afterthought that might be wrong. george's position on janko wagon made me think he was a likely scum candidate. obviously that's now proven wrong.
my point is, if bob were scum, what were his scumbuddies doing? looking at me screaming at janko the entirety of day one, only for that wagon to barely go through? i don't think that's likely. if they were committed to bussing bob, bob would've died. if they were actually trying to save him, i would've gotten more support earlier. i think the game didn't care too much which one of the two wagons got through. hence TvT.
See, this is strong analysis on the wagons NPOM, and explains a likely tvt situation.
You taking wagon analysis at face value from the person that was instrumental in driving the execution of a Town player is baffling to me. Anyway I already think you are somewhat suspect so, it does not matter all that much.
I'm so baffled by people immediately scumreading someone that drove a kill on a townie. Youre aware that town dont know people's alignment outside some type of pr situation. So yeah, town do drive mis-executions, and usually its town driving those misexecutions. It's more often scum that are on for the ride. Because obviously the reasoning was strong enough that other people came along, which means it was genuine and not bullshit.
And Datisi isn't back in this thread brashly pushing for another kill. She's taking the "L". The players that shade people for pushing cases on people that flip town, that always pings me hard. And you've been pushing Bob fairly hard. If bob flips town, by your logic should we be coming for your head tomorrow? And how are we gonna do that when Koba's been pushing hard for Bob too?
This is why this logic is trash and I hate it.
Wait, have I "immediately scumread" Datisi? I SR you for taking analysis from a player that was visibly wrong in a big way at face value. Yeah Town players get things wrong all the time (if Town players got things right all the time then Scum would never win, and that's obviously not the case). If Bob flips Town, you are free to come at me all you want and bash my analysis. I never claimed to be a savant - I am just trying to sort what's happening as best as I can.
Posted: Thu Aug 13, 2020 3:46 am
by VP Baltar
In post 1721, NoPowerOverMe wrote:So Bob was obviously the right wagon. I don't see 13 players all being wrong.
VOTE: Bob
Lol this MF
Hey all, I'm slammed at work at the moment, so my catch up may be a little slower than typical.
First instincts are the GB kill is weird. Need to reread his iso and see what his thoughts were.
I didn't really find the Aldus hammer a problem. Day was dragging and getting a flip was the right call.
I still think the Bob slot is likely scum given it wouldn't quite go over yesterday. Want to carefully look at how the janko wagon formed, even though it felt like a reasonable choice
More probably late today when I can actually read the last several pages.
Posted: Thu Aug 13, 2020 3:49 am
by Datisi
In post 1768, Andresvmb wrote:@DkKoba are you really certain that Datisi is Town here?
andres, this lowkey felt like shade. can you elaborate on your read on me?
In post 1776, Andresvmb wrote:it makes hellbooks look somewhat bad (look at the anti-vanguard post in 1676)
can you explain
I don't actually think you are Scum btw. I was just saying that if Scum have any incentive to nuke GB here, it might be to make you look less Towny. On the other hand, I find it somewhat unlikely that you would encourage your Team to nuke one of the players you were openly skeptical of. I mean, didn't most other people have GB null to positive?
In post 1768, Andresvmb wrote:@DkKoba are you really certain that Datisi is Town here?
andres, this lowkey felt like shade. can you elaborate on your read on me?
It is not shade, it is doubt. I felt you were coming from a Town mindset D1, and a lot of players have almost placed you in their solid Town buckets and moved on. You had an insistent push on a player that was Town, yes, but more importantly, you felt the need to consistently downplay or question my TR of that player. So that's what is raising my antenna. And now, you seem to be arguing via wagon analysis that Bob is Town. Bob called VPB and me hard Scum, and voted for Town. And the NK had Snowblaze/Bob as Scum early. Why are you siding with that player? And how do you read my slot then?
Posted: Thu Aug 13, 2020 4:04 am
by Datisi
i mean, the NK also read janko as scum and pretty much tipped the wagon there. and was very lurky that people were suspecting. like GB probably got killed because of a failed PR snipe attempt, not because anyone was afraid of him convincing the town to vote here or there.
yeah, i felt the need to question your TR of him because i didn't agree with it. i still don't agree with it. yeah i know he flipped town. if i were placed in the same situation again, i'd be hard pushing for his head again.
why should the fact that bob called baltar/you scum be a point for turning against bob? i know it doesn't seem like it from your PoV, but i'm not townreading you. obviously my reads were going wrong somewhere when my strongest scumread flipped green, but that doesn't mean i'm flipping all my other reads upside down immediately.
Posted: Thu Aug 13, 2020 4:12 am
by Andresvmb
In post 1786, Datisi wrote:i mean, the NK also read janko as scum and pretty much tipped the wagon there. and was very lurky that people were suspecting. like GB probably got killed because of a failed PR snipe attempt, not because anyone was afraid of him convincing the town to vote here or there.
yeah, i felt the need to question your TR of him because i didn't agree with it. i still don't agree with it. yeah i know he flipped town. if i were placed in the same situation again, i'd be hard pushing for his head again.
why should the fact that bob called baltar/you scum be a point for turning against bob? i know it doesn't seem like it from your PoV, but i'm not townreading you. obviously my reads were going wrong somewhere when my strongest scumread flipped green, but that doesn't mean i'm flipping all my other reads upside down immediately.
I am not surprised that you are SR me, since you were also SR Janko. But being so hilariously wrong
should
make you question some of your reads. And how can you not agree with it? Janko
was
Town. It does not even look like you are arguing I was TMI'ing the slot.
I do not like speculating about the NK too much because it is really hard to get into the heads of an entire Team without any Scum flips. So I am not going to push that argument further. I have my view and you have yours.
Posted: Thu Aug 13, 2020 4:17 am
by Datisi
/shrug, you brought up the NKA first.
i said i'm not townreading you, that's not the same as scumreading you. i'm *aware* my view of the game wasn't the most correct one. it's time to see where exactly was i going wrong. i do have a hunch, but we'll see how things turn out.
i'm not arguing you were TMI'ing the slot, i'm arguing i was dead sure janko is scum and would repeat that push whenever because he was doing scummy shit. people tell you "ah, you shouldn't worry about your own image as town, just do honest scumhunting and it'll shine through" and it's something i couldn't disagree with more. i know this is a waste of time typing it now, i'm just saying. i believe i had good reasons to think he was scum.
Posted: Thu Aug 13, 2020 4:24 am
by Raya36
Othonna capensis "Little Pickles"
Mod notes:
[/area]
Posted: Thu Aug 13, 2020 4:24 am
by Andresvmb
In post 1715, Iconeum wrote:if ur town, scum know they aren't getting you lynched
if ur scum, GB is a fairly safe kill, while having me seriously pocketed
otoh, if ur town, a townflip on you would solidify your townread you had in me and i think scum have me on their mislynch list lol
i hate wifom
Also, @Iconeum this is quite Towny. Turning around and questioning Datisi here would be difficult for you to do as Scum, or if you were Partners. So I will be the first to recognize that I probably had you wrong.
In post 1747, Datisi wrote:the second paragraph is an afterthought that might be wrong. george's position on janko wagon made me think he was a likely scum candidate. obviously that's now proven wrong.
my point is, if bob were scum, what were his scumbuddies doing? looking at me screaming at janko the entirety of day one, only for that wagon to barely go through? i don't think that's likely. if they were committed to bussing bob, bob would've died. if they were actually trying to save him, i would've gotten more support earlier. i think the game didn't care too much which one of the two wagons got through. hence TvT.
See, this is strong analysis on the wagons NPOM, and explains a likely tvt situation.
You taking wagon analysis at face value from the person that was instrumental in driving the execution of a Town player is baffling to me. Anyway I already think you are somewhat suspect so, it does not matter all that much.
I'm so baffled by people immediately scumreading someone that drove a kill on a townie. Youre aware that town dont know people's alignment outside some type of pr situation. So yeah, town do drive mis-executions, and usually its town driving those misexecutions. It's more often scum that are on for the ride. Because obviously the reasoning was strong enough that other people came along, which means it was genuine and not bullshit.
And Datisi isn't back in this thread brashly pushing for another kill. She's taking the "L". The players that shade people for pushing cases on people that flip town, that always pings me hard. And you've been pushing Bob fairly hard. If bob flips town, by your logic should we be coming for your head tomorrow? And how are we gonna do that when Koba's been pushing hard for Bob too?
This is why this logic is trash and I hate it.
Wait, have I "immediately scumread" Datisi? I SR you for taking analysis from a player that was visibly wrong in a big way at face value. Yeah Town players get things wrong all the time (if Town players got things right all the time then Scum would never win, and that's obviously not the case). If Bob flips Town, you are free to come at me all you want and bash my analysis. I never claimed to be a savant - I am just trying to sort what's happening as best as I can.
So whats your read of her? Because shading me for agreeing with her analysis only makes sense if youre at scum!Datisi. She was wrong on her read of a player. That game state read makes a hell of alot of sense to me. And I'm owning it so you can take me to task for it.
You're right, she was wrong, in a very visible way. So whats my scum motivation for agreeing with that? That only makes sense if I'm partners with bob and trying to protect him right? And in that case, given that I could be easily pushing for a Datisi mis-elim is the team the three of us? What exactly are you getting at if youre not scumreading Datisi here? Because this seems real hedgey except with respect to you finding me to be an easy push? And what is suspect here? You allegedly had interest in joining me on a NPOM push yesterday. Still have interest there or you just back on Bob?
In post 1747, Datisi wrote:the second paragraph is an afterthought that might be wrong. george's position on janko wagon made me think he was a likely scum candidate. obviously that's now proven wrong.
my point is, if bob were scum, what were his scumbuddies doing? looking at me screaming at janko the entirety of day one, only for that wagon to barely go through? i don't think that's likely. if they were committed to bussing bob, bob would've died. if they were actually trying to save him, i would've gotten more support earlier. i think the game didn't care too much which one of the two wagons got through. hence TvT.
See, this is strong analysis on the wagons NPOM, and explains a likely tvt situation.
You taking wagon analysis at face value from the person that was instrumental in driving the execution of a Town player is baffling to me. Anyway I already think you are somewhat suspect so, it does not matter all that much.
I'm so baffled by people immediately scumreading someone that drove a kill on a townie. Youre aware that town dont know people's alignment outside some type of pr situation. So yeah, town do drive mis-executions, and usually its town driving those misexecutions. It's more often scum that are on for the ride. Because obviously the reasoning was strong enough that other people came along, which means it was genuine and not bullshit.
And Datisi isn't back in this thread brashly pushing for another kill. She's taking the "L". The players that shade people for pushing cases on people that flip town, that always pings me hard. And you've been pushing Bob fairly hard. If bob flips town, by your logic should we be coming for your head tomorrow? And how are we gonna do that when Koba's been pushing hard for Bob too?
This is why this logic is trash and I hate it.
Wait, have I "immediately scumread" Datisi? I SR you for taking analysis from a player that was visibly wrong in a big way at face value. Yeah Town players get things wrong all the time (if Town players got things right all the time then Scum would never win, and that's obviously not the case). If Bob flips Town, you are free to come at me all you want and bash my analysis. I never claimed to be a savant - I am just trying to sort what's happening as best as I can.
So whats your read of her? Because shading me for agreeing with her analysis only makes sense if youre at scum!Datisi. She was wrong on her read of a player. That game state read makes a hell of alot of sense to me. And I'm owning it so you can take me to task for it.
You're right, she was wrong, in a very visible way. So whats my scum motivation for agreeing with that? That only makes sense if I'm partners with bob and trying to protect him right? And in that case, given that I could be easily pushing for a Datisi mis-elim is the team the three of us? What exactly are you getting at if youre not scumreading Datisi here? Because this seems real hedgey except with respect to you finding me to be an easy push? And what is suspect here? You allegedly had interest in joining me on a NPOM push yesterday. Still have interest there or you just back on Bob?
No, it doesn’t just make sense if I’m at Scum!Datisi. It also makes sense if you
know
Datisi is wrong about Bob (and Town) and want to get away with another mis-execution in NPOM. And yes, you could very well be partnered with Bob and protecting them. But I hate associative reads when we don’t have the information. Flipping Bob makes sense for a variety of different reasons. It helps me solidify my reads completely of VPB and to a lesser extent DkKoba (who is still solidly Town in my book). If Bob flips Scum that is. It also helps clear NPOM somewhat and maybe avoid a mis-execution there. It also sinks you Billy, or at the very least leaves you solidly in the POE.
I’ve said this repeatedly and I’ll say it again. I don’t think I am skilled enough to point at the Scum Team D1 or even here early D2. But I am very skeptical of Bob right now and I strongly believe the slot needs to flip. I fully concede I could be wrong. But I would rather know that, and flipping NPOM just does not do it for me.
Posted: Thu Aug 13, 2020 5:42 am
by VP Baltar
Quick skim at work because lol
Andres is town af right now and I'm loving it.
My read is also GB was a PR shot as Andres said. Works out in our favor given he wasn't.
VOTE: Bob
Called it yesterday and I remain correct.
Posted: Thu Aug 13, 2020 5:43 am
by Andresvmb
But what I do want to see is more opinions from {Alduskkel, hellbooks, Testarossa}. These players are sitting solidly in the middle for me and I can’t say with any confidence what they are. Alduskkel and hellbooks are more of a Town Read than anything but still.
My read is also GB was a PR shot as Andres said. Works out in our favor given he wasn't.
VOTE: Bob
Called it yesterday and I remain correct.
I will concede that Datisi was the first person if I recall correctly to suggest that GB was a PR hunting shot. I can see that, and I added a few other elements which might have also come into play. GB was a null read for me so it definitely wasn’t because they were super engaged with the game or had excellent reads.
Posted: Thu Aug 13, 2020 5:48 am
by Datisi
yo baltar, when you've got time (don't wanna enable people to slack off work...) can we chat wagons? i seem to recall you being suspicious of janko as well, what do you think about it now? what's your read on me, and do you trust the other people currently on the bob wagon?
pedit: i mean, GB was a suspicious slot with not much clout. with all due respect to georgebailey, i kinda doubt he'd get shot for his reads.
In post 1705, Datisi wrote:i'm actually fairly confident both EoD wagons are town. janko's wagon took a fair bit of pushing to go through. if bob were scum, i think his buddies would've joined me in pushing janko much sooner.
that's why i thought georgebailey was scum. his late vote on janko (and janko flipping town) made me think that scum was pushing both wagons ~equally, and his vote seemed like the least committed one. but, uhhh... guess i was wrong.
Because I cannot make sense of this. Scum clearly were not pushing both wagons equally, yes? I think Bob would have died far more easily if that had been the case.
![:]](./images/smilies/icon_smiling.png "Cheerful Smile"){kind=icon}