Yeah, I just wanted to make sure that it wasn't entirely wrong but between 50% and 60% seems pretty balanced.
Posted: Tue Jan 08, 2013 8:49 am
by buldermar
I'll hammer uct the next time I see him on L-1.
Posted: Tue Jan 08, 2013 8:57 am
by pirate mollie
I still say (with the recent info from majiffy) that maenara and ns look like pondscum.
Posted: Tue Jan 08, 2013 9:00 am
by borkjerfkin
NS plays like this every game. He's a policy lynch for me through and through.
Definitely want to legitimately lynch Maenara.
Posted: Tue Jan 08, 2013 9:11 am
by Majiffy
↑buldermar wrote:Last night I realized that calculating the ideal probability of protecting Majiffy is simply too much work. It would take taking into account all of the possible future day and night permutations. I think a rough estimate could be 3p LyLo value plus the probability of him succesfully protecting town if he isn't killed plus 1/N where N is the amount of players plus something for his value on possible future days which combined would always be less than 16.67%, so let's say that's 15%... so that would be something like 16.67%+20%+15%=51.67%.
Just who the fuck do you think you are, shos?
Posted: Tue Jan 08, 2013 9:13 am
by Nobody Special
No, jeck.
Posted: Tue Jan 08, 2013 9:16 am
by Maenara
VOTE: UTC
Here we go again. L-1.
Also, Bork, no.
Posted: Tue Jan 08, 2013 9:18 am
by borkjerfkin
I can't be bothered to snarky response that
Posted: Tue Jan 08, 2013 9:23 am
by Majiffy
Oh come on I'm drawing a blank on anything to say and you know somebody has to do it.
Posted: Tue Jan 08, 2013 9:41 am
by pirate mollie
okay, let's do this thing!
VOTE: uct
Posted: Tue Jan 08, 2013 9:49 am
by RachMarie
Vote Count 3.5
pirate mollie (1) the director
Nobody Special (3) penguin_alien, uctriton00, Kmd4390
uctriton00 (4) Majiffy, Borkjerfkin, Nobody Special, Nachomamma8, Maenara, Pirate Mollie LYNCH
Not Voting
Buldemar
With 11 it takes 6 to lynch
(expired on 2013-01-14 17:06:10)
Flavor and flip in next post.
Posted: Tue Jan 08, 2013 10:01 am
by RachMarie
The day felt so long to the committee as they discussed who the mafia in their midst could be. Much discussion occurred, even some that was not related to the decision at hand. It seems the people are feeling more comfortable around each other. Several times it seemed like they had reached consensus, but then they changed their mind. Most of the suspicion focused on uct and NS, and it looked like either one would be the lynch of the day for a long time. Finally, a plan was decided on, math was introduced much to the consternation of the mayor, and a lynch was decided....
String him up they cried. As uct breathed his last breath, a shimmer of glamor evaporated. Majiffy exclaims See I told you he was scum!
uctriton00
Mafia Goon
was lynched on Day 3.
Night actions need to be in by (expired on 2013-01-11 17:01:16)
Posted: Sat Jan 12, 2013 10:33 am
by RachMarie
The dawn breaks and as everyone shuffles into the room they count noses. One of their group is missing! Who is it? The director is missing. They rush to his bedroom to find him laying in a pool of blood where he had been shot. Next to him was the keys to the jail cell.
the director
Jailkeeper
was killed Night 3.
With 9 it takes 5 to lynch
Deadline is (expired on 2013-02-02 17:31:55)
Posted: Sat Jan 12, 2013 10:39 am
by Majiffy
wat
Posted: Sat Jan 12, 2013 10:42 am
by borkjerfkin
Ok so Maenara is town, NS is probably town.
Posted: Sat Jan 12, 2013 10:43 am
by borkjerfkin
buldermar is also probably town due to there were 3 people that called Fe out for flaking and UCT was one of them. I doubt either of the others are scum.
Posted: Sat Jan 12, 2013 10:47 am
by pirate mollie
saw that one coming
Posted: Sat Jan 12, 2013 11:04 am
by Majiffy
Spoiler: Day 1 VCs
Maenara (2)
uctriton00
,
Majiffy
Majiffy
(1) pirate mollie
Nachomamma8 (2)
Fe
,
Lastsurvivor
Buldermar (5) Kmd4390,
the director
, Nobody Special, penguin_alien, Maenara
Not Voting
Malakittens
, borkjerfkin, Nachomamma8, Buldermar
Maenara (1)
Majiffy
Majiffy
(1) pirate mollie
Nachomamma8 (2)
Fe
,
Lastsurvivor
Buldermar (6) Kmd4390,
the director
, Nobody Special, penguin_alien, Maenara,
uctriton00
(L-2)
Not Voting
Malakittens
, borkjerfkin, Nachomamma8, Buldermar
Kmd4390, (1) Borkjerfkin
Maenara (4)
Majiffy
, Nachomamma8,
Fe
, Nobody Special
Majiffy
(1) pirate mollie
Nachomamma8 (1)
Lastsurvivor
Buldermar (5) Kmd4390,
the director
, penguin_alien, Maenara,
uctriton00
(L-3)
Not Voting
Malakittens
, Buldermar
Maenara (4)
Majiffy
, Nachomamma8,
Fe
, Kmd4390
Majiffy
(1) pirate mollie
Nachomamma8 (1)
Lastsurvivor
, Borkjerfkin
Buldermar (5)
the director
, penguin_alien, Maenara,
uctriton00
, Kmd4390
Not Voting
Malakittens
, Buldermar, Nobody Special
Kmd4390 (3) Nobody Special,
uctriton00
,
Majiffy
Maenara (2) Nachomamma8,
Fe
Nachomamma8 (2) Borkjerfkin,
the director
Buldermar (4) penguin_alien, Maenara, Kmd4390.
Lastsuvivor
Not Voting
Malakittens
, Buldermar, pirate mollie
Fe
(5)
the director
,
uctriton00
,
Majiffy
, penguin_alien, Nobody Special
Maenara (2) Nachomamma8,